Filed under: UFCWill Brock Lesnar make a triumphant return to the Octagon after more than a year away? Or will Alistair Overeem’s debut mark him as the No. 1 contender in the heavyweight division? Can Donald Cerrone finish 2011 with a perfect 5-0 recor…
Will Brock Lesnar make a triumphant return to the Octagon after more than a year away? Or will Alistair Overeem‘s debut mark him as the No. 1 contender in the heavyweight division? Can Donald Cerrone finish 2011 with a perfect 5-0 record? Or will Nate Diaz hand Cerrone a difficult ending to his stellar year? Will Jon Fitch return to his steady pace of grinding out decision victories? Or will Johny Hendricks become the first man not named Georges St. Pierre to beat Fitch in the Octagon?
We’ll attempt to answer those questions and more as we predict the winners at UFC 141.
What: UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem
When: Friday, the Facebook fights begin at 7 PM ET, the Spike preliminaries start at 9 and the pay-per-view starts at 10.
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas
Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem This fight is so fun for so many reasons. The obvious reason being that it’s two enormous men who will attempt to smash each other for our entertainment, but the slightly less obvious reason is that they’ll have two very different approaches to smashing each other, and that each man’s greatest strength aligns well with the other man’s greatest weakness.
For Overeem, the strength is that he punches, kicks and knees people really hard, and Lesnar’s greatest weakness is that he doesn’t react well at all when he gets hit really hard. In his last two fights, Lesnar has been finished by first-round TKO (against Cain Velasquez) and almost finished by first-round TKO (against Shane Carwin). In both cases, Lesnar did little more than cover up on the ground once he got leveled with a hard punch, although we have to give him credit for eventually recovering to beat Carwin. Overeem hits every bit as hard as Carwin and Velasquez do, and so Lesnar looks incredibly vulnerable on his feet.
However, Overeem has never shown that he can fair well against a good wrestler, and Lesnar is certainly that. Lesnar is also bigger and stronger than Overeem (or at least he is if he’s completely recovered from his latest bout of diverticulitis) and so he can’t be thrown around the cage the way many of Overeem’s recent opponents have been. It’s easy to picture Lesnar doing to Overeem what he did to Frank Mir at UFC 100: Getting on top of him on the ground, controlling him from the top, and eventually finishing him with punches.
And that’s what I think he’s going to do. This is a fight that could go a number of different ways, and Overeem probably has more different ways to win — he could easily use his K-1 striking to TKO Lesnar, and I wouldn’t rule out an Overeem win by submission either. But as long as Lesnar is completely healthy, I believe his physical power and wrestling prowess will be enough to take this. Pick: Lesnar
Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone Cerrone jumped to the UFC at the start of the year with the rest of the old WEC stars, and he’s promptly had one of the best years of any UFC fighter not named Jon Jones. Cerrone has already won four fights in 2011, beating Paul Kelly, Vagner Rocha, Charlies Oliveira and Dennis Siver. I think Diaz matches up better with Cerrone than any of those four, but I think at the end of an entertaining and mostly even fight, Cerrone will have landed more effective strikes and come out with a narrow decision victory. Pick: Cerrone
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks Fitch is finally returning to the Octagon after 10 months off because of a shoulder injury, and in Hendricks — a former NCAA wrestling champion — he might be facing the first opponent since Georges St. Pierre who can force him to abandon his usual tack of winning a decision through clinches, takedowns and top control. However, while Hendricks has much better college wrestling credentials than Fitch, Fitch is better at incorporating his wrestling in MMA. I like Fitch to win this one by decision. Pick: Fitch
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Alexander Gustafsson Matyushenko will turn 41 next week, but he’s still a sturdy gatekeeper in the light heavyweight division. Yes, he got wrecked by Jon Jones last year, but everyone gets wrecked by Jones. And that fight is Matyushenko’s only loss since he returned to the UFC in 2009. Throw in the fact that Matyushenko’s last two wins have been impressive first-round stoppages, and there’s a lot to like about Matyushenko.
But there’s even more to like about Gustafsson, a 24-year-old Swede who has all kinds of talent. This fight represents a solid test for Gustafsson, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Matyushenko take it, but I like Gustafsson to win by TKO and offer up another indication that he’s a rising star at 205 pounds. Pick: Gustafsson
Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes Hettes easily won his UFC debut in August, submitting former Ultimate Fighter contestant Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres. Now he gets a step up in quality of competition against Caceres’s Ultimate Fighter castmate, Phan. Hettes is 9-0 in his MMA career, with all nine wins coming by submission, and in training at Greg Jackson’s gym he’s becoming a more complete fighter. Phan has never been submitted in 26 pro fights and probably won’t be submitted this time, but Hettes is good enough that he should beat Phan by decision. Pick: Hettes
MILWAUKEE – This is the UFC on Versus 5 live blog for all the preliminary bouts on tonight’s UFC card.
UFC on Versus 5 is the promotion’s debut in Wisconsin and takes place at the Bradley Center in downtown Milwaukee, the state’s largest city.
The preliminary card features eight fights, including a middleweight bout between C.B. Dollaway and Jared Hamman and a bantamweight contest between former WEC champion Eddie Wineland and former title challenger Joseph Benavidez.
No glove touch, but we start anyway. Figueroa takes the center and Reinhardt circles to the right on the outside, then back left. Reinhardt is on his horse, not engaging, and grinning at Figueroa, now talking to him and clapping at him. The crowd is booing wildly. Figueroa finally catches him to throw a partially blocked kick. This has Kalib Starnes written all over it. Figueroa lands a right and drops Reinhardt, then locks in a standing guillotine. Reinhardt is trying to power out of it, and he eventually gets a little slam out of it and winds up on top. He transitions to Figueroa’s back and starts to work for a rear naked choke with a body triangle locked on. Figueroa gets out, though, and lands a shot from up top. They stand up, and when Figueroa engages, Reinhardt immediately drops to his back. They stand up again, and Reinhardt lands a decent right of his own. Back on the feet, Figueroa again lands a couple good shots and gets Reinhardt back on the ground, where he proceeds to land some pretty stiff shots from standing. Reinhardt does a somersault and rolls over. He has basically given up and is just laying there as the ref looks at him when the horn sounds. It’s a 10-8 round for Figueroa on our card thanks to Reinhardt’s running.
Round 2: We’re going to do a second round of this thing, and this time they touch gloves. Reinhardt again is on his horse, then shoots when Figueroa engages. There’s a scramble, and Figueroa ends up on top in full mount. Reinhardt rolls over and covers up and he’s not long for this fight. Pretty quickly, the ref steps in and it’s done. So, too, likely, is Reinhardt’s UFC career after the running in the first round.
Round 1: The legendary Mario Yamasaki gets things going. No glove touch. Volkmann shoots in early and they have a scramble in the clinch, but not much comes from it. They break apart and dance. Decent body kick from Castillo, who shortly thereafter misses a nice high kick. Then he lands an outside leg kick, followed by one on the inside. Volkmann shoots again and gets a soft takedown and looks to pass from half guard. He ties up Castillo’s right arm, then works for a side choke. But trying to hold on to that position costs him, as Castillo works his way out and gets top position. Volkmann settles back into guard, then nicely wall walks back to his feet as they clinch up. They separate around 1:50 and move back to the middle. After trading rights, Castillo lands one of the loudest body kicks in recorded history (we think) to Volkmann’s left ribcage. But Volkmann survives it and the two wind up in a scramble on the ground. It’s a tough first round to score, with each guy looking pretty effective. But MMA Fighting will give it, highly unofficially, to Castillo 10-9.
Round 2: After a few seconds of dancing, we clinch up along the fence. A few traded shots lead to Volkmann on his butt looking for a choke, and Castillo trying to work ground and pound. Yamasaki warns Castillo for holding Volkmann’s shorts and says he’ll take a point if he does it again. Volkmann wall walks back up, and then Castillo is warned for grabbing the fence, though it looked mild. A weird scramble leads to Volkmann on his back briefly, then on his knees, and he wrestles Castillo to his back and is in half guard. Then work for position, and Volkmann briefly has a choke that he can’t lock up as Castillo tries to reverse position. He works for it again, and it’s an arm-in modified guillotine. But Castillo will survive the round. Round 2 goes to Volkmann on our card, 10-9.
Round 3: Castillo lands a nice right hand 10 seconds in. Forty seconds later, the next action is a nice inside leg kick from him. They hit the ground briefly, but Volkmann has the edge there before Castillo scrambles quickly out and back to his feet. The crowd cheers the cat-and-mouse game. A short exchange in the middle leads to Volkmann again taking top position on the ground, controlling Castillo’s head and neck from half guard. He looks for some short elbows, but mainly this is a control game with Castillo’s right arm locked up. Volkmann isn’t doing much with the position, and it doesn’t look like it’s a choke he can lock down from where he’s at. Castillo wiggles out, but Volkmann gets to side control and looks for more elbows and again traps an arm and controls Castillo’s head. Castillo throws right knees from the ground, but that’s all he can do. The crowd is booing what it deems a stalling game by Volkmann. Castillo rolls over, and Volkmann works for his back. But nothing will happen. It’s a 10-9 third for Volkmann, and MMA Fighting scores the fight for him 29-28. No doubt some judges will have it 30-27 for him.
Result: Jacob Volkmann def. Danny Castillo, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Round 1: They touch gloves, surprising given yesterday’s heated moment at the weigh-ins. These guys are both tall. Not Stefan Struve tall, but tall. We dance for 30 seconds, looking for position. Both throw a few kicks and rights that miss. Miller blocks a high kick and pushes forward, but O’Brien just misses a big uppercut right that has the crowd making one giant “Ooooooh!” sound. O’Brien lands a nice body shot that has Miller thinking that wasn’t very nice. And O’Brien then comes forward with a nice combination. He blocks some of Miller’s combos a short time later, then checks an outside leg kick. With 90 seconds left, Miller lands a big right, then just misses another but follows it with an outside leg kick. He lands a pair of stiff left jabs, then a third. O’Brien blocks a high Miller kick, then comes forward with a body shot. It’s a pretty close first round, but we’ll go 10-9 Miller – though it could go either way.
Round 2: We trade leg kicks and look for openings to start the first minute of Round 2. Miller then backpedals to re-set. O’Brien comes forward and has Miller backing up just for a second, but Miller drops him with a left and starts to work kicks from up top while O’Brien lays on his back. But a really nice scramble by O’Brien has him to his feet – but just for a second. Miller dives back in and cranks on a guillotine, and he’s got it good. Though O’Brien is trying to get out, he can’t and he has to tap.
Result: Cole Miller def. T.J. O’Brien, submission (guillotine), 2:38 Round 2
MILWAUKEE – This is the UFC on Versus 5 live blog for all the preliminary bouts on tonight’s UFC card.
UFC on Versus 5 is the promotion’s debut in Wisconsin and takes place at the Bradley Center in downtown Milwaukee, the state’s largest city.
The preliminary card features eight fights, including a middleweight bout between C.B. Dollaway and Jared Hamman and a bantamweight contest between former WEC champion Eddie Wineland and former title challenger Joseph Benavidez.
No glove touch, but we start anyway. Figueroa takes the center and Reinhardt circles to the right on the outside, then back left. Reinhardt is on his horse, not engaging, and grinning at Figueroa, now talking to him and clapping at him. The crowd is booing wildly. Figueroa finally catches him to throw a partially blocked kick. This has Kalib Starnes written all over it. Figueroa lands a right and drops Reinhardt, then locks in a standing guillotine. Reinhardt is trying to power out of it, and he eventually gets a little slam out of it and winds up on top. He transitions to Figueroa’s back and starts to work for a rear naked choke with a body triangle locked on. Figueroa gets out, though, and lands a shot from up top. They stand up, and when Figueroa engages, Reinhardt immediately drops to his back. They stand up again, and Reinhardt lands a decent right of his own. Back on the feet, Figueroa again lands a couple good shots and gets Reinhardt back on the ground, where he proceeds to land some pretty stiff shots from standing. Reinhardt does a somersault and rolls over. He has basically given up and is just laying there as the ref looks at him when the horn sounds. It’s a 10-8 round for Figueroa on our card thanks to Reinhardt’s running.
Round 2: We’re going to do a second round of this thing, and this time they touch gloves. Reinhardt again is on his horse, then shoots when Figueroa engages. There’s a scramble, and Figueroa ends up on top in full mount. Reinhardt rolls over and covers up and he’s not long for this fight. Pretty quickly, the ref steps in and it’s done. So, too, likely, is Reinhardt’s UFC career after the running in the first round.
Round 1: The legendary Mario Yamasaki gets things going. No glove touch. Volkmann shoots in early and they have a scramble in the clinch, but not much comes from it. They break apart and dance. Decent body kick from Castillo, who shortly thereafter misses a nice high kick. Then he lands an outside leg kick, followed by one on the inside. Volkmann shoots again and gets a soft takedown and looks to pass from half guard. He ties up Castillo’s right arm, then works for a side choke. But trying to hold on to that position costs him, as Castillo works his way out and gets top position. Volkmann settles back into guard, then nicely wall walks back to his feet as they clinch up. They separate around 1:50 and move back to the middle. After trading rights, Castillo lands one of the loudest body kicks in recorded history (we think) to Volkmann’s left ribcage. But Volkmann survives it and the two wind up in a scramble on the ground. It’s a tough first round to score, with each guy looking pretty effective. But MMA Fighting will give it, highly unofficially, to Castillo 10-9.
Round 2: After a few seconds of dancing, we clinch up along the fence. A few traded shots lead to Volkmann on his butt looking for a choke, and Castillo trying to work ground and pound. Yamasaki warns Castillo for holding Volkmann’s shorts and says he’ll take a point if he does it again. Volkmann wall walks back up, and then Castillo is warned for grabbing the fence, though it looked mild. A weird scramble leads to Volkmann on his back briefly, then on his knees, and he wrestles Castillo to his back and is in half guard. Then work for position, and Volkmann briefly has a choke that he can’t lock up as Castillo tries to reverse position. He works for it again, and it’s an arm-in modified guillotine. But Castillo will survive the round. Round 2 goes to Volkmann on our card, 10-9.
Round 3: Castillo lands a nice right hand 10 seconds in. Forty seconds later, the next action is a nice inside leg kick from him. They hit the ground briefly, but Volkmann has the edge there before Castillo scrambles quickly out and back to his feet. The crowd cheers the cat-and-mouse game. A short exchange in the middle leads to Volkmann again taking top position on the ground, controlling Castillo’s head and neck from half guard. He looks for some short elbows, but mainly this is a control game with Castillo’s right arm locked up. Volkmann isn’t doing much with the position, and it doesn’t look like it’s a choke he can lock down from where he’s at. Castillo wiggles out, but Volkmann gets to side control and looks for more elbows and again traps an arm and controls Castillo’s head. Castillo throws right knees from the ground, but that’s all he can do. The crowd is booing what it deems a stalling game by Volkmann. Castillo rolls over, and Volkmann works for his back. But nothing will happen. It’s a 10-9 third for Volkmann, and MMA Fighting scores the fight for him 29-28. No doubt some judges will have it 30-27 for him.
Result: Jacob Volkmann def. Danny Castillo, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Round 1: They touch gloves, surprising given yesterday’s heated moment at the weigh-ins. These guys are both tall. Not Stefan Struve tall, but tall. We dance for 30 seconds, looking for position. Both throw a few kicks and rights that miss. Miller blocks a high kick and pushes forward, but O’Brien just misses a big uppercut right that has the crowd making one giant “Ooooooh!” sound. O’Brien lands a nice body shot that has Miller thinking that wasn’t very nice. And O’Brien then comes forward with a nice combination. He blocks some of Miller’s combos a short time later, then checks an outside leg kick. With 90 seconds left, Miller lands a big right, then just misses another but follows it with an outside leg kick. He lands a pair of stiff left jabs, then a third. O’Brien blocks a high Miller kick, then comes forward with a body shot. It’s a pretty close first round, but we’ll go 10-9 Miller – though it could go either way.
Round 2: We trade leg kicks and look for openings to start the first minute of Round 2. Miller then backpedals to re-set. O’Brien comes forward and has Miller backing up just for a second, but Miller drops him with a left and starts to work kicks from up top while O’Brien lays on his back. But a really nice scramble by O’Brien has him to his feet – but just for a second. Miller dives back in and cranks on a guillotine, and he’s got it good. Though O’Brien is trying to get out, he can’t and he has to tap.
Result: Cole Miller def. T.J. O’Brien, submission (guillotine), 2:38 Round 2
Will Brock Lesnar make a triumphant return to the Octagon after more than a year away? Or will Alistair Overeem‘s debut mark him as the No. 1 contender in the heavyweight division? Can Donald Cerrone finish 2011 with a perfect 5-0 record? Or will Nate Diaz hand Cerrone a difficult ending to his stellar year? Will Jon Fitch return to his steady pace of grinding out decision victories? Or will Johny Hendricks become the first man not named Georges St. Pierre to beat Fitch in the Octagon?
MILWAUKEE – This is the