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UFC 140 Predictions

Filed under: UFCWill Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or …

Filed under: UFC

Will Jon Jones continue his domination of the light heavyweight division, or will Lyoto Machida get the belt back? Can Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira avenge his loss to Frank Mir? Will Tito Ortiz continue his surprising career resurgence, or will he be sent a step closer to retirement by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira?

We’ll answer those questions and more as we predict the winners at UFC 140.

What: UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida

When: Saturday, the Facebook stream begins at 5:45 PM ET, the Ion televised card starts at 7 and the pay-per-view starts at 9.

Where: Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.

Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida
With a win, Jones would put a bow on what may have been the best year any fighter has ever had in the UFC: Jones has already destroyed Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson in 2011, and adding Lyoto Machida to that list would be an incredible feat.

Machida, however, may be the light heavyweight whose style is the trickiest for Jones to handle. Machida is so elusive that Jones is going to have a hard time getting to him even with his decided reach advantage, and Machida is such a good counter-striker that Jones is going to have to be careful not to get too fancy. Machida has frustrated a lot of great fighters, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him win a decision.

But Jones has been so dominant of late that I simply can’t pick against him. If Jones is able to take Machida down he should be able to use his superior strength to bully him on the ground, and even if the fight remains standing, Jones is eventually going to tag Machida the way Shogun Rua did. Of all the light heavyweights in the world, I give Machida the best chance of beating Jones. But right now I’d pick Jones over anyone.
Pick: Jones

More Coverage: UFC 140 Fight Card | UFC 140 Results

Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
Mir has made no secret that he’s a little annoyed that he even has to give Nogueira a rematch, three years after Mir won by TKO. And Mir really doesn’t like the fact that Nogueira and his supporters have suggested that an illness prior to the last fight is the reason Nogueira won.

This time around there should be no excuses, and the fight should go more or less the way the last one did: Mir will get the better of Nogueira standing, and he won’t even try to engage Nogueira on the ground. Nogueira did earn a solid win over Brendan Schaub in August, but to the extent that these two have changed since the last time they fought, I think Mir has become bigger and stronger while Nogueira has become older and slower.
Pick: Mir

Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogério Nogueira
A year ago Ortiz was largely written off as washed up, but he deserves a lot of credit for persevering: He beat Ryan Bader soundly and then fought a good fight in a losing effort against Rashad Evans. And the mere fact that Ortiz is now preparing to fight for the third time in less than six months, after fighting only once a year every year from 2007 to 2010, says a lot about how much healthier he is after his recovery from back surgery.

Nogueira, on the other hand, is on a two-fight losing streak and hasn’t had a really strong performance since he TKO’d Luiz Cane more than two years ago. If either one of these guys has looked washed up recently, it’s Little Nog.

However, in this particular matchup Nogueira’s boxing is going to carry the day: Nogueira should be able to keep Ortiz at range and batter him with punches, and eventually Nogueira will wear Ortiz down enough to win by TKO.
Pick: Nogueira

Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole
Patrick is 3-0 since signing with the UFC lat year, and if he can win this one he’ll start to make some noise in the welterweight division. But Ebersole, who’s been fighting for 11 years, is much more experienced than Patrick and has a more versatile ground game, and should be able to win a decision.
Pick: Ebersole

Mark Hominick vs. Chan Sung Jung
My pick for fight of the night, Hominick vs. Jung has all the makings to be one of those fights that makes you lean forward, clench your fists and stare in awe of the intensity of the action. Hominick will have the hometown crowd on his side in Toronto, just as he did the last time he fought, when he lost to Jose Aldo at UFC 129, but in that fight it was a Rocky-like crowd, cheering him because he simply wouldn’t quit no matter how much punishment he took. In this fight, Hominick will be the better striker in the cage, and he should be able to out-land Jung and win convincingly.
Pick: Hominick

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Jon Jones: How Long Will His Style Be More "Like Water" Than His Opposition?

On Saturday, December 10, Jon Jones will defend his UFC light heavyweight title against former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida. Since joining the UFC Jones has put together a record of 8-1, with his sole loss coming via disqualification for de…

The 24-year-old wunderkind has steamrolled over his competition by using an unorthodox style that has left some of his opponents, in the words of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, “mesmerized.”

More than a few fans and pundits are of the opinion that Machida will offer a stylistic problem for Jones. When the subject of Machida’s style arose, Jones had the following to say to in a recent edition of Fighters Only magazine:

He’s a lot like me, just a little more disciplined in his attack. My attack is a little more free-flowing. I’m more about the improv. Lyoto says he’s been training since he was about four or five years old, so he has a lot of tendencies and ways that I think he’ll have a hard time breaking, which is not like water. I think I might be a little more like water.

By describing his style as more “like water,” than Machida’s, Jones invoked the words of Bruce Lee who once said:

Empty your mind; be formless, shapeless like water. Now you put water into a cup it becomes the cup, you put water into a bottle it becomes the bottle if you put it into a teapot it becomes the teapot, water can flow or it can crash, be water my friend.

Jones’ comment comparing his style and that of Machida’s is worth considering. The fact that Machida has trained in the martial arts since he was a youth may restrict his fluidity and his ability to think outside the box. If his training was regimented and repetitive in nature, his body and mind will react to the way they have been trained through the years, making it difficult for him to become “like water.”

Jones, on the other hand, is not as encumbered by that type of training, so his body and mind may very well react more in the moment. That freedom will allow him to do what feels right as opposed to what he has been programmed to do when facing adversity.

The next logical question then is: How long will Jones’ actions in the cage be free and improvisational?

As he progresses in his training he may fall into repetition, developing the same tendencies that he believes Machida has, and once that occurs, then what? Will Jones be able to reinvent himself, or will the seed be so deeply planted that his “improv” style actually becomes easy to decipher? Will he then be the one that hears, from a younger opponent, the same words he spoke regarding Machida’s style?

The sport of MMA is still young and evolving. Right now the likes of Jon Jones and Dominick Cruz are the future of the sport, but one day, in the not too distant future, they will be the past, much like Royce Gracie is to today’s younger fighters.

Will Jones and his ilk be able to remain “like water” or will they become stopgaps in the history of mixed martial arts?

Whichever direction the fighters of the present and future move in, one thing is for certain, MMA is ever-evolving and we should all be thankful that we get to see it progress right before our eyes.

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UFC 140 Fight Card: Odds for the Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida Main Card

UFC 140 will take place on Saturday, December 10 from the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The main event of the night will see Jon Jones put his light heavyweight title on the line against former UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Mach…

Saturday’s bout will mark Jones’ second defense of the title he tore from the hands of Maurcio Rua at UFC 128. His first defense of the title took place on September 24 when he defeated Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Jackson was forced to tap in the fourth round of the fight after Jones secured a rear naked choke.

For his part Rua will look to regain the title he lost to Rua at UFC 113. Coincidentally, Machida’s next fight, following his loss to Rua, was a split decision loss to Rampage Jackson. Machida followed that loss up with a stunning second round knockout of Randy Couture at UFC 129.

The odds for the main card are below:

Pay Per View:

Jon Jones (-455) favorite over Lyoto Machida (+355)

Frank Mir (-260) favorite over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+210)

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-210) favorite over Tito Ortiz (+170)

Brian Ebersole (-125) favorite over Claude Patrick (-105)

Mark Hominick (-400) favorite over Chan Sung Jung (+300)

UFC 140: Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida Will Not Be Broken by Jon Jones

Reigning UFC Light Heavyweight Champion of the World Jon Jones is on an astounding streak of dominance. He has beaten seven opponents in a row by absolute domination and stoppage. When Jon Jones steps into the Octagon, the judges sitting ca…

A note of caution to those judges: You’re going to want to pay close attention and diligently fill out your scorecards at UFC 140 this Saturday, because this thing is going the full 25 minutes.

Jonny “Bones” Jones is an imposing figure and a tough puzzle for any light heavyweight, but Lyoto Machida is the first opponent with a good answer for everything Jon Jones brings to the table.

Jones has an insane reach advantage over pretty much everyone in the UFC not named Stefan Struve. And nobody at 205 lbs comes even close. A wingspan of 84.5 inches is a tremendous advantage, and Jones is starting to get good at making the most of his reach.

Machida can negate this advantage in several ways: 1) Lyoto Machida‘s Karate-based fighting style is built around not getting hit. He’s very good at dodging and moving away when threatened, and he’s quick enough to stay clear of most of Jones’ strikes. 2) There is Machida’s uncanny ability to feint repeatedly, move in suddenly, strike quickly and then move out again. 3) And finally, Lyoto Machida can use precision kicks to keep his head and body at a distance while landing strikes. Machida’s kicks vs. Jones’ reach does not give Machida an overwhelming advantage, but it does equalize things considerably.

Jones has extremely creative striking. So does Lyoto Machida. Neither man has a clear advantage on this point.

Jones is the best and most complete wrestler in the light heavyweight division.

He’s not just another great freestyle wrestler, he possesses elite skills in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling styles. Greco-Roman wrestling specializes in clinch-work, pushing your opponent around and taking your opponent down while not getting taken down in return. Greco has been proven to the best wrestling style in MMA.

To counter this, Machida has a unique and unfamiliar wrestling skill set. He is a high-level (and extremely underrated) freestyle wrestler and he has also trained extensively in Sumo wrestling. From a standing position, Sumo wrestling super-specializes in clinch work. You lose by anything but your feet touching the ground or being pushed outside of a circle. Controlling and not being controlled is much more important to a Sumo wrestler. Take-down defense is much more important as well.

If you go back and watch the Couture fight again, you’ll notice that every time Couture got a hold of him, Lyoto broke free quickly and almost effortlessly. That’s exactly what it takes to thwart Jones’ clinch game.

Lyoto Machida has better Brazilian Jiu Jitsu than anyone Jones has faced thus far. Jones is probably still better at the overall submission game, but Machida is better equipped to nullify Jones on the ground than anyone else.

Machida is very durable, has great cardio and he consistently fights at the level of his competition no matter how good they are.

Put it all together and what do you get? Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida, the toughest challenge the light heavyweight division has left for Jon Jones.

But what about the all important question: Does Lyoto have the tools to win? Can he beat Jonny “Bones” Jones?

No. He has the tools to pull off the upset, but he won’t. Ultimately, Jones is better at everything than Machida. Jonny has all the skills and tools to win this fight on the judges’ score card.

And that’s no insult to Lyoto Machida. The Dragon will break Jones’ long streak of winning by finishing his opponents. And Mr. Machida is going to be the last light heavyweight to survive against Jones long enough for the judges to render a decision.

Jon Jones is going to win this fight by five-round unanimous decision. Jon Jones will also beat everyone else in the division today either by submission or by knockout. And you can take that to the bank.

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UFC 140: What Movies Would Lyoto Machida, Tito Ortiz and Other MMA Fighters Be?

MMA fighters and movies. Nothing in common? Think again.The sport of MMA has been host to many a personality as well as actions that define a career forever.If the fighters with these personality traits or involved in these (in)famous actions were to b…

MMA fighters and movies. Nothing in common? Think again.

The sport of MMA has been host to many a personality as well as actions that define a career forever.

If the fighters with these personality traits or involved in these (in)famous actions were to be paired with a well known movie, what movie would it be?

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Ed Soares: ‘Lyoto (Machida) Has the Tools to Beat Jon Jones’

Much like Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida was once seen as an unstoppable force in the UFC light heavyweight division. The elusive Brazilian went on a seven-fight win streak where his karate-based style was a puzzle for nearly all of his opponents, and i…

Much like Jon Jones, Lyoto Machida was once seen as an unstoppable force in the UFC light heavyweight division.

The elusive Brazilian went on a seven-fight win streak where his karate-based style was a puzzle for nearly all of his opponents, and it eventually lead him to a title shot against then-champion Rashad Evans in May 2009.

But his title reign was short-lived and he has since looked to find his place once again in the crowded 205-pound division.

Although some fans don’t believe in the mystique Machida once had, “The Dragon” will look to retain some of his re-found aura.

After scoring a knockout victory over Randy Couture earlier this year at UFC 129, Machida instantly reentered himself into the conversation as being a title contender. He gets his opportunity to regain the UFC light heavyweight title when he challenges Jones at UFC 140 this weekend.

In an interview with Sherdog.com, Machida’s manager Ed Soares spoke about the upcoming bout and said Machida’s skills are being overlooked compared to Jones’ and he believes the former UFC light heavyweight hasn’t lost anything is still a threat to beat the 24-year-old.

“Jon Jones is an incredible athlete but I think Lyoto has the tools to beat him,” Soares said. ” Lyoto is his first southpaw, and not only is he a southpaw, but a southpaw who moves around the Octagon very well.”

It is unquestionable that Jones possesses all the skills and talent to remain UFC Champion for a while, but fans have become so mesmerized by his potential that they proclaim him unbeatable. It is the same proclamation that Machida was labeled until his fall from grace; and because of that, Soares said Jones faces a lot of challenges at 205 pounds, including Machida.

“I think Jon Jones needs to worry about Lyoto Machida,” Soares said. “When I hear things like that it makes me think that the people are counting Lyoto out.” He added, “First he’s got to get through Lyoto, and then if he gets through Lyoto, he’s got to get through Rashad, so, you know, we’ll see what happens.”

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