Tag: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

Dana White Wouldn’t Have Wanted Dan Henderson-‘Shogun’ Rua Fight on FOX

Filed under: UFCSAN JOSE, Calif. — Five rounds of bloody, back-and-forth action. That’s what UFC president Dana White got out of Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 139, and what he must have hoped he would get out of Junior dos Santos and …

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SAN JOSE, Calif. — Five rounds of bloody, back-and-forth action. That’s what UFC president Dana White got out of Dan Henderson and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 139, and what he must have hoped he would get out of Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez for the UFC’s FOX debut last weekend, right?

Not so fast, said White, who admitted that while the 64-second heavyweight scrap on FOX didn’t offer much chance to build up the ratings, a brutal 25-minute fight like the UFC 139 main event would have had some negative consequences for the organization’s network debut.

“If you could have like a [Rua-Henderson] type fight on TV, I mean, imagine what the [ratings] number would get to,” White said. “But that’s not the fight you want for your first time on network television.”

With a peak of 8.8 million viewers, White has reason to be pleased with the first FOX offering. Following the UFC 139 press conference he confirmed rumors that he celebrated the ratings milestone by leaping up on a table in the UFC offices and sending all his employees home early.

“I hear all kinds of rumors about, oh, I heard he was flipping out after the fight and all this [expletive],” White said. “No, I wasn’t flipping out and yes, I did jump on a table and send everybody home. I was pretty excited.”

But as much as hardcore fans might have liked to see something on par with the Henderson-Rua scrap on network TV, White suggested it might have been too violent for mainstream FOX viewers to handle right off the bat.

“I said it before and I’ll say it again: if I could go back in a time machine and do the FOX fight over again, it would be done the same exact way. Exactly the same way. The hardcores can bitch about that fight, I could care less what they think about that fight. I don’t care. And people are like, ‘Oh, you don’t care what the fans think?’ No, I do not care what you think. That fight had to go the way that it went because none of you guys understands what goes on behind the scenes. If that fight that happened tonight went on FOX for the first time ever, let me tell you what, I would not be having a good time these last five or six days.”

That’s because, White said, the UFC is “still in the education process” when it comes to introducing mainstream sports fans to his product. Even with the quick, bloodless debut, White said there were still opponents who didn’t want it on network TV.

“These people come out of nowhere, attacking this sport, literally saying that it should go away, that we shut down the UFC and this thing should go away,” said White. “That’s realistic. But those are the kind of people that come after you. It’s crazy.”

But as White has been repeating ever since the FOX debut, the UFC still needs to “ease into” the mainstream rather than charging in with a bloody battle like Henderson-Rua, which might be hard for the uninitiated viewer to stomach. Just don’t expect that easing process to last very long, according to the UFC president.

“In my opinion, we eased into it already. We did it, we put the first fight on FOX, now we’re going with four fights. And the more fights you do, the more chance you have to have one of these.”

In theory, maybe. In practice, you could put on MMA fights for years and not see anything like what Hendo and Rua produced on Saturday night. That’s what makes it so special, whether the mainstream viewer is ready for it or not.

 

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Dan Henderson and ‘Shogun’ Rua Combine for ‘Unbelievable’ Fight at UFC 139

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Dan Henderson and Shogun RuaSAN JOSE, Calif. — Mauricio “Shogun” Rua began bleeding in the first minute of his fight with Dan Henderson at UFC 139. He never really stopped, actually, just like he never quit coming back from one near-knockout after another. That turned out to be a trait he and Henderson had in common during their seesaw main event bout.

The scorecards might have registered a unanimous decision win for Hendo once all five rounds were in the books, but the larger result was a fight that instantly earned a spot among the greatest bouts of all time.

“That’s without a doubt one of the top three best fights ever in MMA,” UFC president Dana White said afterward, adding “that was like our [Muhammad] Ali-[Joe] Frazier III. It was unbelievable.”

And truly, it was. This time, at least, that’s not just fight promoter hyperbole from White.

It was a fight that, from the very beginning, seemed unlikely to last a round, let alone five. Henderson dropped Rua early in the first frame with his vaunted right hand. Rua appeared to barely survive that first assault, but he managed to turn the tables on Henderson before the end of the round, coming back in the final two minutes to give the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champ a taste of his own medicine with a punch combo that left Henderson struggling for survival.

So it went for the next three rounds. Henderson started each round strong, dropping Rua with one haymaker after another, only to have the Brazilian rise up and, blinking through the blood, mount a comeback in the second half of each round.

In the third, Rua seemed close to being stopped after Henderson knocked him down and then bounced his head off the mat with successive right hands. In fact, had referee Josh Rosenthal stepped in the wave it off there, it’s unlikely that too many fight fans could have faulted him for it. But Rosenthal, who by that point had seen Rua battle back from one brain-rattling blow after another, gave the former UFC and Pride champion the benefit of the doubt, and it proved to be the right call.

By the fourth, Rua was all the way back in it, and appeared to have Henderson out on his feet at one point. By the fifth, he was camped out in full mount, raining down blows on Hendo as the 41-year-old Californian moved just enough to show he was still in it, and apparently enough to avoid a 10-8 round, which would have rendered the bout a draw.

When the judges’ scorecards were read after a full 25 minutes of this brutal back-and-forth, Henderson could barely stand and Rua could barely see. All three judges gave Henderson the first three rounds and Rua the final two, resulting in a 48-47 score across the board for Hendo.

Not surprisingly, neither the winner nor the loser made it to the post-fight press conference. Both had an appointment at the hospital instead, but not before Henderson tweeted a picture of himself laid out on the locker room floor, requesting a title shot for his next fight.

“That guy could fight at [1]85 [pounds] or 205 [pounds] for the title,” White concurred. “No doubt about it. I don’t disagree.”

In a video interview inside his locker room after the fight, Henderson said he thought the fight was “one or two shots away from being finished” at one point, but Rua had “tried to Rocky Balboa me, wore me out with his head.”

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As often as the comparison gets tossed around in combat sports, this was one fight that was not at all unlike a Rocky movie. The knockdowns, the comebacks, the almost unreasonable amount of physical damage sustained by each fighter — if it was a film, it might have stretched the limits of believability.

This one was all real, and yet difficult to believe. Even both sets of cornermen, as they made their way out of the cage, seemed stunned and exhausted. Fans at cageside lingered, some with hands on their heads, still trying to comprehend what they’d just witnessed.

Was it the greatest MMA fight of all time, or simply one of the greatest? Was it number one, or just top three? That’s an argument that will stretch on well past Saturday night, but after what Rua and Henderson accomplished together, there’s simply no way you can have the conversation without them.

 

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Dan Henderson and Shogun RuaSAN JOSE, Calif. — Mauricio “Shogun” Rua began bleeding in the first minute of his fight with Dan Henderson at UFC 139. He never really stopped, actually, just like he never quit coming back from one near-knockout after another. That turned out to be a trait he and Henderson had in common during their seesaw main event bout.

The scorecards might have registered a unanimous decision win for Hendo once all five rounds were in the books, but the larger result was a fight that instantly earned a spot among the greatest bouts of all time.

“That’s without a doubt one of the top three best fights ever in MMA,” UFC president Dana White said afterward, adding “that was like our [Muhammad] Ali-[Joe] Frazier III. It was unbelievable.”

And truly, it was. This time, at least, that’s not just fight promoter hyperbole from White.

It was a fight that, from the very beginning, seemed unlikely to last a round, let alone five. Henderson dropped Rua early in the first frame with his vaunted right hand. Rua appeared to barely survive that first assault, but he managed to turn the tables on Henderson before the end of the round, coming back in the final two minutes to give the former Strikeforce light heavyweight champ a taste of his own medicine with a punch combo that left Henderson struggling for survival.

So it went for the next three rounds. Henderson started each round strong, dropping Rua with one haymaker after another, only to have the Brazilian rise up and, blinking through the blood, mount a comeback in the second half of each round.

In the third, Rua seemed close to being stopped after Henderson knocked him down and then bounced his head off the mat with successive right hands. In fact, had referee Josh Rosenthal stepped in the wave it off there, it’s unlikely that too many fight fans could have faulted him for it. But Rosenthal, who by that point had seen Rua battle back from one brain-rattling blow after another, gave the former UFC and Pride champion the benefit of the doubt, and it proved to be the right call.

By the fourth, Rua was all the way back in it, and appeared to have Henderson out on his feet at one point. By the fifth, he was camped out in full mount, raining down blows on Hendo as the 41-year-old Californian moved just enough to show he was still in it, and apparently enough to avoid a 10-8 round, which would have rendered the bout a draw.

When the judges’ scorecards were read after a full 25 minutes of this brutal back-and-forth, Henderson could barely stand and Rua could barely see. All three judges gave Henderson the first three rounds and Rua the final two, resulting in a 48-47 score across the board for Hendo.

Not surprisingly, neither the winner nor the loser made it to the post-fight press conference. Both had an appointment at the hospital instead, but not before Henderson tweeted a picture of himself laid out on the locker room floor, requesting a title shot for his next fight.

“That guy could fight at [1]85 [pounds] or 205 [pounds] for the title,” White concurred. “No doubt about it. I don’t disagree.”

In a video interview inside his locker room after the fight, Henderson said he thought the fight was “one or two shots away from being finished” at one point, but Rua had “tried to Rocky Balboa me, wore me out with his head.”

%VIRTUAL-Gallery-139928%

As often as the comparison gets tossed around in combat sports, this was one fight that was not at all unlike a Rocky movie. The knockdowns, the comebacks, the almost unreasonable amount of physical damage sustained by each fighter — if it was a film, it might have stretched the limits of believability.

This one was all real, and yet difficult to believe. Even both sets of cornermen, as they made their way out of the cage, seemed stunned and exhausted. Fans at cageside lingered, some with hands on their heads, still trying to comprehend what they’d just witnessed.

Was it the greatest MMA fight of all time, or simply one of the greatest? Was it number one, or just top three? That’s an argument that will stretch on well past Saturday night, but after what Rua and Henderson accomplished together, there’s simply no way you can have the conversation without them.

 

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UFC 139 “Shogun vs Henderson”: Live Results & Commentary

“I hate to have to tell you this, Mr. Bailey, but you’ve got a severe case of liveblog. It won’t be long now.” (Photo: UFC.com)

The good news: you’re all but guaranteed more than sixty-four seconds of action this evening. The bad news: you’re going to have to pay for it.

Nothing in life is free, not even punches to the face. Take Dan Henderson, for example. “Hollywood” was once considered too costly of an investment for the UFC, but after an impressive three-fight win streak he was deemed too valuable for Strikeforce. Tonight he makes his return to the Octagon after a two year hiatus. Does old Hendo have enough gas in the tank for one more title run, or will the “old” Shogun show up and ruin his homecoming.

Though he may not have the cleavage to warrant video commentary, weekend editor Chris Colemon does possess the sort of typing skills that get you beat up by jocks in high school. Come join him inside for the best play-by-play coverage you’ll see on this site tonight.

“I hate to have to tell you this, Mr. Bailey, but you’ve got a severe case of liveblog. It won’t be long now.” (Photo: UFC.com)

The good news: you’re all but guaranteed more than sixty-four seconds of action this evening. The bad news: you’re going to have to pay for it.

Nothing in life is free, not even punches to the face. Take Dan Henderson, for example. “Hollywood” was once considered too costly of an investment for the UFC, but after an impressive three-fight win streak he was deemed too valuable for Strikeforce. Tonight he makes his return to the Octagon after a two year hiatus. Does old Hendo have enough gas in the tank for one more title run, or will the “old”  Shogun show up and ruin his homecoming.

Though he may not have the cleavage to warrant video commentary, weekend editor Chris Colemon does possess the sort of typing skills that get you beat up by jocks in high school. Come join him inside for the best play-by-play coverage you’ll see on this site tonight.

And we…are…live! Does anyone know when the Gladiator gets buried? I remember hearing that his days were numbered.

If you’ve been on Facebook, Spike, or MTV2, you’ve already had a great night of MMA, but there’s plenty more to come. Between the UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, and Pride, there’s no shortage of past champions on tonight’s card.

We’re jumping right in with the first fight of the night.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

R1: Both men game to exchange. Kingsbury swings and pushes Bonnar against the cage. Both men exchanging knees in the clinch with Bonnar finally breaking free. Bonnar tags Kingsbury but follows up with a kick to the nuts. A quick timeout and we’re back. Kingsbury is bleeding a little out of the nose. The two clinch again and head back to the cage. Kingsbury with a nice elbow. Bonnar tries a hip toss, but Kingsburs stays on his feet. Now a wild exchange between the two with both men swinging. Now Bonnar forces Kingsbury’s back tot eh cage, but Kyle circles out. Bonnar hunting him down with big punches. Stephan struggles with a takedown but finally drags Kingsbury to the mat. The American Psycho has side mount and is landing light punches while struggling to maintian position. Bonnar steps over to mount and is teeing off, but Kingsbury rolls. Dominant ending to the round for Stephan Bonnar.

R2: Kingbury misses with a high kick, but lands with a body kick. Solid right from Kingsbury and Bonnar responds with a blocked head kick. Bonnar gets behind Kingsbury and works him to the canvas. Stephan on top in half guard and breaks free to side control. Stephan trying to trap an arm in the crucifix but moves to North-South. Now he’s back to side control. Bonnar is in control on top but not scoring any real damage at all. Bonnar is still working for the crucifix but not finding any success. Now he’s got a guillotine and moves to mount but can’t quite hold onto either. Kingsbury is defending, but that’s all that he’s doing. Bonnar was trying for an arm triangle but couldn’t break free from half guard to complete it.  Another controlling round for Bonnar.

R3: Body kick from Bonnar. Kingsbury with a leg kick, but Bonnar catches it, takes his back, and once again he’s in a dominant position on the ground. Kingsbury is latching on to half guard, but it was only a matter of time before Bonnar escapes and moves to North-South. “Looking for a choke is Bonnar”. It’s not there, so Stephan abandons it in favor of a kimura, but again Kingsbury defends well. Bonnar lands pitter pat punches and a few elbows to the gut, but largely this bout is a grappling match that he’s winning easily. More kimura contemplation from Bonnar, but that’s as far as it goes. Bonnar handily takes this round and the fight. Boos from the crowd once again remind him that he’ll never match the excitement of his UFC debut. Ever.

Stephan Bonnar defeats Kyle Kingsbury by Unanimous Decision: 30-27 (x2) and 30-25.

An apology from Bonnar to fans for this fight and to Koscheck for the whole t-shirt/lawsuit scandal.

Fighter vs. Writer: UFC 139 Picks with Miguel Torres

Filed under: UFCThe peculiarities of the UFC’s recent schedule have kept the Fighter vs. Writer series on a bit of a hiatus, but now we’re back. In the last installment, I smoked Brendan Schaub with my UFC 137 predictions, though he didn’t exactly help…

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Miguel TorresThe peculiarities of the UFC’s recent schedule have kept the Fighter vs. Writer series on a bit of a hiatus, but now we’re back. In the last installment, I smoked Brendan Schaub with my UFC 137 predictions, though he didn’t exactly help himself out by refusing to pick a winner in the Roy Nelson-Cro Cop fight.

This time around, I visited one of UFC 139‘s prelim fighters to get his thoughts on his colleagues on the main card. Dear readers, I give you former WEC bantamweight champion Miguel Torres, who now has two fights on his hands for Saturday night. And unlike Nick Pace, my weight is right where it’s supposed to be.

Let’s do this, Miguel.

Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

Torres: Rua via KO. “I love Henderson, love his style, I’ve seen a lot of his fights like. But I’ve been watching Shogun since the Pride days. Every time somebody kicks I scream because of him. So I have to go with Shogun. Somebody’s getting knocked out.”
Fowlkes: Henderson via KO. If he gets past the first round without being swarmed by Rua, I think he makes it a nasty, messy fight, wearing Rua down until he can put him away with that big right hand of his.

More Coverage: UFC 139 Results

Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le

Torres: Le via KO. “I love Wanderlei, too. He’s another one of those guys I’ve watched for a long time. My heart says Wanderlei, but my mind says Cung Le. Cung Le’s knocked out a lot of his opponents, and Wanderlei’s been knocked out a lot lately. But I hope I’m wrong.”
Fowlkes: Le via KO. Silva’s power always gives him a decent chance in any fight, but it’s true, his chin ain’t what it used to be. Le can use those kicks to keep him at a distance and look for opening, and Silva probably won’t be able to get close enough to do much damage.

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles

Torres: Faber via decision. “Bowles has broken his hand two or three times already, so it depends how healthy his hand is, and his mind. I know he hits hard, but if he gets a punch in and hurts his hand, it will kill his confidence. So I think Urijah takes it.”
Fowlkes: Faber via decision. I still think that, the odds being what they are, Bowles isn’t a bad underdog pick, but Faber’s a tough match-up for anybody in the bantamweight division. He has an impressive ability to figure an opponent out over the course of a fight, and he only gets stronger in the later rounds.

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

Torres: Bonnar via decision. “I’m going with Stephan. Stephan’s my boy, so I can’t go against him. He could be fighting Brock [Lesnar], and I’m still going to pick Stephan. Stephan’s a grinder, though. He’ll grind him out.”
Fowlkes: Kingsbury via decision. I have no such loyalty to Mr. Bonnar, and I think Kingsbury is underrated these days. He’s gotten a lot better in a very short time, and he could surprise a few people here, Miguel included.

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

Torres: Kampmann via TKO. “That’s a close one, but I like Kampmann. I like his style. He’s tough, and I think he takes it. That’s a fight where they’re going to go at it, and somebody’s getting finished.”
Fowlkes: Kampmann via decision. I don’t know if I can see this one ending inside the distance, and I agree that it’ll be a tight one, but I think Kampmann is a just a little bit better and a tad more well-rounded. In a fight this close, that could be all it takes.

Torres picks: Rua, Le, Faber, Bonnar, Kampmann
Fowlkes picks: Henderson, Le, Faber, Kingsbury, Kampmann

 

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UFC 139 Main Event Breakdown: Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua

Filed under: UFCWhen you look at the tale of the tape for UFC 139’s main event, the only difference that really jumps out at you is age. For Dan Henderson, it’s probably going to be that way for the rest of his career. In fact, at 41 years old, he is t…

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When you look at the tale of the tape for UFC 139‘s main event, the only difference that really jumps out at you is age. For Dan Henderson, it’s probably going to be that way for the rest of his career. In fact, at 41 years old, he is the oldest fighter on the UFC roster. By comparison, his opponent, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is 29.

Despite being over a decade apart in age, Henderson has had a more successful recent history than Rua, winning six of his last seven overall — four by knockout — with his only defeat coming in a decision loss to Jake Shields. Henderson has also pulled off wins in three weight classes (middleweight, light-heavyweight and heavyweight) during that time.

His return comes on the heels of one of his most dominant stretches since his PRIDE days. Not only has he KO’d three straight opponents, he also was the Strikeforce light-heavyweight champ and won a heavyweight bout against Fedor Emelianenko.


There is nothing he really needs to accomplish before calling it quits, but Henderson would love to earn a UFC championship, a feat that would make him the only man to capture titles in Strikeforce, PRIDE and the UFC, the leading promotions of his era.

For the last few years of his career, Henderson (28-8) has mostly been a striker, a vast departure from his early days as a wrestling-heavy grinder. In his last seven fights, he has just seven takedowns, and he tends to wrestle offensively in spurts. For example, against Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante in March, he scored three takedowns, and against Rich Franklin in January 2009, he had four. In his five other fights, he had none. Most puzzling in that stretch was the one loss to Shields, where he didn’t try a single attempt in a five-round fight.

That can make Henderson tricky to prepare for, but because of his power, you have to focus on that as a starting point. Henderson keeps his right hand cocked by his ear, ready to fire at any opening. He is very patient in waiting for his moment, but aggressive when it comes.

Unlike many elite fighters, Henderson does not blow away his opponents in statistical categories. According to FightMetric’s breakdown of his last 31 fights, Henderson lands 2.46 significant strikes per minute while his opponents land 2.36 against him. He lands 49 percent of strikes while opponents land 50 percent against him.

Even in the wrestling game, the former Olympian hasn’t overwhelmed his opponents, as he’s completed 59 percent of takedowns while opponents have put him on the mat on 41 percent of tries against him. Yet somehow when you add that all up, Henderson is elite.

That’s because the sum total of his skills allows him to overcome most of his issues. If you are willing to stand and trade with him, he’s probably a harder striker than you. If you want to take him down, it’s not going to be easy, but even if you do, he’ll probably get right back up. And with most of his fights contested standing, his power is going to win out most of the time.

Rua (20-5) has alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, though one of those defeats — a decision loss to Lyoto Machida — was controversial. In March, Rua lost the division championship, but he came back to knock out Forrest Griffin in less than two minutes in August.

Rua features a very diverse striking attack that is heavy on kicks, knees and clinchwork. According to FightMetric, he out-lands opponents at a nearly 2-to-1 rate, a major gap that explains much of his success. He is an average offensive wrestler (48 percent success rate) but his defensive wrestling has been downright terrible during his UFC tenure. In his seven UFC fights, he’s only stopped two of 17 takedown tries against him. That means opponents put him on the mat on 88 percent of their attempts. That could prove disastrous against Henderson if Henderson capitalizes on the advantage that’s there for the taking.

In this fight, Rua’s footwork will be important as he must circle away from Henderson’s power hand. His kicks can also keep him out of range for that overhand right.

One other factor to think about is the potential for a five-round fight. Rua has exhibited conditioning issues at times, and Henderson is 41. Who will a long fight favor? Possibly Henderson, because if they fall into clinches, he can take Rua down and earn points from the top position. But as I noted previously, Henderson wrestles in spurts, and that may or may not be a part of his plan on Saturday.

Rua is a slight favorite in this fight, and I understand the thinking. He has more diversity in his standup offense, and this is likely to be a standup battle. But this is no easy money fight for him. Henderson’s right hand and wrestling can be difference-makers. Above it all, we know both men have shown epic chins. This fight is a coin toss, but I’m going to guess Shogun’s technique overcomes Hendo’s sheer power and wins an exciting decision.

 

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UFC 139: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThe UFC invades San Jose on Saturday night for an event at Strikeforce’s longtime stomping grounds in the HP Pavilion, and at least on paper UFC 139 looks like one of the best fight cards of the year.

Oddsmakers have already had a look…

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The UFC invades San Jose on Saturday night for an event at Strikeforce’s longtime stomping grounds in the HP Pavilion, and at least on paper UFC 139 looks like one of the best fight cards of the year.

Oddsmakers have already had a look at the card and determined their favorites. Now it’s our turn. Who knows, we might find a crazy underdog somewhere in here to carry us to the promised land.

Dan Henderson (+110) vs. “Shogun” Rua (-140)

In the past couple years it’s seemed like you never know for sure which “Shogun” you’re going to get until midway through the first round. Will he show up fierce and in shape, or soggy and slow? Fans have been willing to cut him some slack after injury layoffs, but a five-round battle with a grinder like Henderson could get ugly for the Brazilian if it makes it into the later rounds. If it remains a kickboxing match, you’ve got to like Rua’s chances. But Hendo seems to have a special gift for turning what looks like a nice, technical bout on paper into a messy, nasty affair in the cage. The more rough and tumble it gets, and the longer it goes, the more this fight favors Henderson. If he can wear Rua out in the clinch and on the mat in the early going, this is a very winnable fight for him.
My pick: Henderson. At these odds, it’s worth small action, but I wouldn’t go big on the off chance that we saw a sharp “Shogun” or a Hendo who suddenly starts to look his age.


Wanderlei Silva (+115) vs. Cung Le (-145)

I have to imagine that if Le’s acting aspirations hadn’t already resulted in him losing a fight he should have won, the line on this would be considerably more lopsided. It’s not that Silva’s got no chance. Power is always one of the last things to go, though Silva’s trademark aggression is high on that list as well. He could conceivably get in close and smash Le with a big hook, or snatch him up in a Thai clinch and knee him like he’s “Rampage” Jackson and it’s 2004 all over again. More likely though, Le will keep him at a distance with his kicks, sticking and moving all night long. Le might not be known for his knockout power, but these days, Silva isn’t known for his ability to take much a shot. If Silva were somewhere north of a 2-1 underdog here, I could see taking the risk. But to get Dan Henderson odds on a fighter who is younger, but clearly further past his prime, that doesn’t seem like such a good deal.
My pick: Le. I’ll save it for the parlay, and a part of me will continue to hope I’m wrong, since I’m not sure I can handle seeing Silva get knocked out again. I also can’t justify picking him, though.

Urijah Faber (-250) vs. Brian Bowles (+195)

I realize Faber is far more popular — Bowles realizes it too, in case you’re wondering — but this seems a tad ridiculous. You’re telling me that of all the fighters on the main card here, the biggest underdog is the guy who was champion of his division as recently as March of 2010, who has only lost one fight (via injury TKO, to the current champ), and who is facing a guy who has not held a belt since November of 2008, despite multiple chances to win one? I’m sorry, but I have to call shenanigans here. This is a much closer fight than the odds reflect. Faber deserves to be the favorite, and I understand why he’s got the bigger fan following, but cool hair and an almost disturbingly laid-back attitude isn’t enough to justify a line like this. In a straight-up pick, I’ll take Faber. Even then, however, I won’t feel totally confident in it. With a line this lopsided, I pretty much have to roll the dice on Bowles. If I didn’t, I’d hate myself in the morning.
My pick: Bowles. He might look like Opie Taylor going up against Point Break-era Patrick Swayze, but it’s not a beauty contest, people.

Martin Kampmann (+115) vs. Rick Story (-145)

If you ask me, this is the closest fight on this card. It could go so many different ways, and almost no outcome is unfathomable. Because of the unpredictable nature of this particular style match-up, my gut instinct is to stay away from it entirely. But then, that’s not much fun, and it doesn’t make for the most interesting of betting odds columns, either. With that in mind, I’ll go with the guy who I think has the more diverse skill set, not to mention a little more experience against top-level opponents. That’s Kampmann, but not by much. We’re talking slim margins on this one, which is not something I like to bet on.
My pick: Kampmann. But if I were you, I’d opt to stay out of this one. Like Hemingway said of bicycle racing as compared to horse racing, this is one where you don’t need to bet on it in order to enhance your enjoyment of it.

Kyle Kingsbury (-150) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+120)

Bonnar is a big, tough guy who’s been around the block and earned the right to keep going around even now, when it’s very clear that he’ll never challenge for a title or even get closer than the announcer’s table to one. But against Kingsbury he finds himself facing an opponent who’s probably a little faster, a little stronger, and just generally more athletic. Kingsbury was very green when fans first saw him on TUF, but he’s improved drastically since then and has four straight wins to show for it. Bonnar’s no easy opponent for anyone in the light heavyweight division, and you can rest assured that’s probably going to make you work for the full fifteen minutes, but if Kingsbury does what he’s capable of this should be his fight.
My pick: Kingsbury. Another one for the parlay.

Quick picks:

– Miguel Torres (-340) over Nick Pace (+260). I suppose it’s possible that Pace is on Torres’ level. We just haven’t seen any evidence of it yet.

– Danny Castillo (-300) over Shamar Bailey (+230). No offense to Bailey, but Castillo probably faces tougher fights in the gym on a regular basis.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Le + Kingsbury + Torres + Castillo

 

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