Tag: MMA Betting Picks

UFC On FX 2 – Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann

Strengths for Alves:

• Power Leg kicks – phenomenal leg kicks that are stronger than Kampmann’s, however, the output tends to fade in further rounds.
• Punching power – Has knocked out many with his hands

Strengths for Kampmann:

• Striking accuracy – Kampmann has excellent strike accuracy more like a boxer. He is not a KO artist with one big punch. He tends to have a high output of accurate strikes more like Nick Diaz. Kampmann has a very crisp technique though.
• Takedown defense – Kampmann has a good takedown defense and against Alves I don’t think he will have to worry about that too much as Alves likes to keep it standing.

This is a great matchup for national tv and I can see why UFC made it. They are both strikers with very different styles. Kampmann is ultra crisp that requires a number of strikes before he sets up a takedown, submission, etc. While Alves will use his weight and power to KO or TKO an opponent. Kampmann is known for his submissions as well, but against Alves its not likely happening. Alves is a Black Belt at jiu-jitsu and has been one for a long time. Alves also hasn’t been submitted in the octagon since his very first fight against Spencer Fisher. How that happened was most likely attributed Alves former cardio problem. However, that problem has been solved with both better training and better diet. Kampmann is no slouch at all, he is similar to Carlos Condit in so many ways with the height and length and crisp striking, but possesses agile submission game as well. There are two weaknesses I see in this fight. One Kampmann is susceptible to being knocked out and Alves is susceptible to coming in off weight.

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann Prediction

Alves is favored slightly, its almost even at some sportsbooks at this point. Currently, 5dimes has Alves at -135. I think Alves is going to win. Kampmann is hard to finish, but Alves is on a mission and has improved tremendously. Kampmann has as well and its tough going against Kampmann as he is one of my favorite fighters to watch, but I think Alves’ power is going to be the difference in the fight. Plus Alves tends to push the pace more than Kampmann while again Kampmann sometimes plays the in and out game which in the eyes of the judges the aggressor gets advantage in the decision process. Slight edge to Alves.

This fight I think is going the distance with Alves dominating via ground and pound and power strikes. 30-27 decision.

UFC 144 Main card

Takes place at Saitama arena in Japan
Sunday, February 26, 2012

Lightweight Championship: Frankie Edgar vs Ben Henderson

I was such a huge fan of Frankie Edgar from way back when he took a close decision against at that time Tyson Griffin. When they fought Tyson Griffin was considered the 2nd best in the division with always an exciting fight and winner of many fight of the night bonuses. Edgar beat him. The new more technical Edgar is a different fighter. I really used to enjoy his fights when he utilized his wrestling style mostly. The new Edgar is really a tactician and utilizes incredible foot work, head movement, and boxing. Ben Henderson doesn’t have the footwork or head movement to avoid Edgar’s in and out boxing style. Nor will Henderson be able to contend with his speed. However, Ben Henderson will have a power and strength advantage. The other item that Henderson will have on his side is the unbelieveable skill of submission defense.

If Ben Henderson can’t get close to Edgar, then the fight is going to go Edgar’s way. The key for Henderson here is to get Edgar up against the fence and bully him. If the fight has any kind of close fighting (unlike Edgar vs Penn) then I think Henderson has a chance to TKO Edgar on the ground. Other than that Edgar wins a decision. However, as a fan of both fighters, and always interested in seeing the underdog win, I think Henderson will find a way to win. Like he did against Jim Miller.

Light Heavyweight: Quinton Jackson vs Ryan Bader

Is this Quinton’s last fight? Quinton used to fight in Pride long before he was ever in the UFC with an up and down record. He has said before fights were fixed or massaged in that organization. Quinton Jackson is revered in Japan and is a big name there. He built his persona with the chain and howl due to Japan’s love of the fighter walkout and pre-fight extravagant introductions. Quinton has shown to have conditioning problems in the past, but looked decent in his fights with Hammil and Machida. Even in defeat against Jon Jones, Jackson, looked better than expected.

I’ve wavered on this fight several times, but I’ll go with Quinton in Japan.

Heavyweight: Mark Hunt vs Cheick Kongo

As much as Mark Hunt has been around K-1 and only MMA for a few fights, he is stepping into the cage against someone has been a title contender and has fought the heavyweight’s best. Kongo won’t be taken down in this fight, but it would be interesting to see if Kongo will take Hunt down and use his strong top game to GnP him. I have Kongo winning this fight in so many ways.

Welterweight: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Jake Shields

Jake Shields will have his hands full with Akiyama. Yoshihiro is good with punching and rolls through fighter’s defenses. Good thing for Yoshihiro is that Shields has very little defense. What Akiyama lacks Shields is excellent at. Submissions/submission defense.

Middleweight: Yushin Okami vs Tim Boetsch

Okami via TKO.

Featherweight: Hatsu Hioki vs Bart Palaszewski

Two punchers. Palaszewski has been on fire lately and surprising.

Lightweight: Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon

Awesome fight. Love the matchup of Pettis who has great striking and owner of one of the best kicks in MMA history against Joe Lauzon who is the ultimate smotherer straight to submission fighter. Pettis has excellent submission defense and a great guard as well.
Two ways this goes. 1. Pettis stays on the outside and frustrates Lauzon to where he can’t get his takedown – that will go decision/tko/submission Pettis. 2. Pettis throws a kick that Lauzon catches, takes him down and finishes with his rear naked choke.

I think Lauzon finds a way to get Pettis to the ground and win rounds.

UFC 144 Preliminary card (FX)

Lightweight: Takanori Gomi vs Eiji Mitsuoka

Gomi

Bantamweight: Norifumi Yamamoto vs Vaughan Lee

The legend that is Kid Yamamoto has been fading a bit as he’s lost 4 out of 5 of his last fights. I see Yamamoto making a comeback here as he has always fought well in Japan. Fighting in Japan is different than any other country due to the crowd being quiet. Its not like the UK, Australia, Canada, or the USA. Its different. Yamamoto is used to it, Lee isn’t.

Middleweight: Riki Fukuda vs Steve Cantwell

Cantwell has been chasing that momentum he had after beating Brian Stann in the WEC for the light heavyweight belt. He has lost his last 4 fights to decision. Some were surprising losses too. Fukuda is an experienced veteran and is no easy task for Cantwell, but he is also not that big of a threat. I see the robot getting a victory in the land of robots.

Bantamweight: Takeya Mizugaki vs Chris Cariaso

Mizugaki

UFC On Fuel Diego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger

Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez vs Jake Ellenberger

Diego Sanchez is coming off two straight wins against Martin Kampmann (razor thin), and Paulo Thiago. Strength’s for Diego are his punching speed, cardio, and overall fight game.

Ellenberger has only lost to Carlos Condit in his last 6 fights. I don’t know what Sanchez can do that Ellenberger hasn’t faced already. The wrestling advantage goes to Ellenberger. His wrestling style is actually quite good for MMA and its been demonstrated in every fight. His ability to escape is pretty damn amazing and Ellenberger’s top control is also good. Ellenberger’s cardio is always top notch. I’ve been following Ellenberger’s career since he lost to Jay Heiron in 2006. His skillset has improved tremendously.

If it sounds like I’m a fan, I am. I know MMA talent when I see it and this guy is going to be contending for the title within his next 2 fights.

I have Ellenberger winning this.

Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman

Struve: Pretty good chin, great jiu jitsu on the ground. Struve has improved everywhere.

Herman: Really good chin, power, has an unorthodox weirdness that allows himself to get out of situations. Very similar to Brian Ebersole.
Herman’s weaknesses has been his conditioning. However, his conditioning hasn’t cost him any victories. Herman is an up and comer in the UFC (they are starting him out slowly), however, Herman has a lot of experience fighting in other organizations like Sengoku.

Herman has a lot of potential. I think Herman is going to win and he’s going to make it look like he doesn’t care that he won either.

Middleweight bout: Aaron Simpson vs Ronny Markes

I’m not familiar with Markes so this is a pass.

Heavyweight bout: Stipe Miocic vs Philip De Fries

I don’t know either of these two guys.

Preliminary Card

Bantamweight bout: T.J. Dillashaw vs Walel Watson

Bantamweight bout: Ivan Menjivar vs John Albert

Featherweight bout: Jonathan Brookins vs Vagner Rocha

I don’t think there is much Rocha brings here to stop Brookins. Brookins is pretty good at avoiding the submission. This fight is going to the judges, and I see Rocha mostly fighting off his back due to Brookins’ wrestling. Brookins via decision.

Middleweight bout: Buddy Roberts vs Sean Loeffler

Pass

Lightweight bout: Anton Kuivanen vs Justin Salas

Pass

Lightweight bout: Tim Means vs Bernardo Magalhaes

Pass