Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:
Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)
Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)
Let’s get that money…
The Main Event: Chris Lytle definitely deserves to be a slight favorite here; he’s dangerous from more positions than Dan Hardy, and supernaturally impervious to knockouts and submissions. I think the line would be wider if Lytle wasn’t coming off a lackluster performance against Brian Ebersole in February, but as we all know, the dude was nursing injuries and shouldn’t have taken the fight in the first place. Dan Hardy allegedly holds the striking advantage — but I’m not entirely convinced of that either. Straight money on Lights Out is a wise choice.
The Co-Main: There’s part of me that thinks Jim Miller is being disrespected (as usual) by only being a -145 favorite against Bendo. Henderson is incredibly talented and capable of brilliant performances, but this is Miller’s time. His last two stoppage wins against Charles Oliveira and Kamal Shalorus have demonstrated that his skills are developing with every fight. I see the Jersey Boy taking this one by decision and hitting lucky #8. Miller’s a safe bet.
The Good ‘Dog: I expected the Oliveira vs. Cerrone line to be closer to even. The rangy, experienced, well-rounded Cowboy is a legitimate test for the young Brazilian phenom, and his +130 line is attractive.
The New Guys: Never heard of Jimy Hettes, huh? Well after Sunday night, you’ll know him as “the guy who just knocked Bruce Leroy out of the UFC.” Hettes is a grappling savant who has tapped all eight of his opponents in regional east coast promotions. Despite his TUF 12 credentials, Caceres isn’t really a step up in competition; please don’t bet on him just because you’ve heard of him. As for the card’s other late-replacement newbie, Ronny Markes is a 23-year-old Brazilian prospect who scored a decision win over Paulo Filho in April — not that beating Paulo Filho means much anymore. Vemola is the favorite here because he kicked the dogshit out of Seth Petruzelli in his last fight, while Markes is something of an unknown quantity. My gut is telling me to stay away from this one altogether.
Official CagePotato Parlay: Lytle + Miller + Benavidez + Hettes + Figueroa. $20 returns $131.05 profit.
