Tag: MMA Odds

UFC on Fox 4 Pre-Fight Analysis

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera The headlining fight for UFC on Fox 4 is one of the stranger UFC main events in recent memory. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the more inconsistent fighters on.

Mauricio Rua vs. Brandon Vera

The headlining fight for UFC on Fox 4 is one of the stranger UFC main events in recent memory. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is one of the more inconsistent fighters on the UFC roster. He has a 4-4 record in the UFC but one of those wins was over Lyoto Machida for the light heavyweight title. He is an MMA veteran and was one of the better pound for pound fighters in the world earlier in his career but has not been able to maintain that level of performance with any regularity since coming to the UFC. But the really strange part about this main event is his opponent. Putting Brandon Vera in the main event of a nationally televised card is questionable at best. But following that questionable decision by announcing that the fight will be to determine who gets the next title shot is simply absurd. Thankfully, the UFC has backed off that announcement and instead stated that whoever among Vera, Rua, Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida puts on the more impressive performance will receive the title shot. But even that seems a little silly given that current champion Jon Jones has already destroyed all four of these men within the last two and a half years.

Rua comes into this fight looking to get another chance to at the title he held briefly in 2010 and early 2011. His biggest asset is his muay thai, which he perfected in the early days of global MMA at the famous Chutebox academy in Brazil. His biggest liability is his cardio, which has been suspect in several fights over the past few years. Fortunately, he’s basically facing a lesser version of himself in this fight. Vera is also mainly a muay thai practitioner so this fight should take place on the feet. If Rua enters the cage in decent shape he’ll be able to handle Vera fairly easily. Vera will be in the best shape of his life as he is viewing this as his best opportunity to fight for a title. Once a vaunted prospect at heavyweight, Vera has proven to be a middling light heavyweight and has only a victory over Eliot Marshall to show for his last four UFC appearances. Even he must know he doesn’t deserve to be mentioned in the title picture but if he can somehow land a Hail Mary knee, he might earn the chance to get beat up by Jon Jones again.

Rua is the favorite coming into the fight at -350 with Bader at +290 and this is a perfect example of what is wrong with the oddsmakers who set the lines for MMA. No rational explanation exists to justify why the odds for this fight are basically the same as the odds for the fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida. Bader is far more likely to upset Machida than Vera is to upset Rua. But for some reason, the odds say those two outcomes are equally likely. Regardless, this fight has an air of inevitability around it, which is unfortunate for a main event on an important card like this. Both men are muay thai artists but Vera is not on the same level of Rua. If Rua enters the cage in fighting shape, he should be able to finish Vera. If he enters the cage in decent shape, he should be able to win a decision. The only way this fight ends with Vera getting his hand raised is if Rua shows up out of shape or if Vera lands a miracle.

Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader

On a card headlined by an egregious mismatch, the second-billed fight between Ryan Bader and Lyoto Machida will be the most anticipated contest of the night for most MMA fans. Machida is a former champion looking to get back on track after following a sixteen fight win streak to open his career with a loss in three of his last four fights. One of those losses was a close decision to Quentin Jackson that many scored in favor of Machida but the other two were decisive losses to Mauricio Rua and Jon Jones in championship bouts. Bader’s situation is somewhat similar in that he followed a twelve fight winning streak to open his career by losing back to back fights to Jon Jones and Tito Ortiz before bouncing back with consecutive victories over Jason Brilz and Quentin Jackson. An impressive performance by either fighter could earn a rematch with champion Jon Jones.

Machida is one of the most interesting fighters in any weight class. He employs a unique striking style grounded in traditional martial arts. He attacks from unusual angles with unusual strikes and often hurts his opponents because they don’t see his strikes coming. He doesn’t throw with explosive power but instead does his damage by landing a varied but accurate array of punches, kicks and knees that keep his opposition off balance. Because most of his fights take place in the standing position, he has not had much opportunity to display his ground game. However, he should not be underestimated on the mat as he has some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in the light heavyweight division. His defensive wrestling is solid and because of that, he rarely ends up on his back but if he does, he is still a threat. Against a wrestleboxer like Bader, expect Machida to keep the fight standing and try to assert an advantage on the feet. He will likely look to avoid Bader’s power while picking him apart from distance until he can land something clean enough to hurt him. But if he doesn’t, he’ll be content to use his excellent movement and footwork to control the pace of the fight and earn a decision victory on points.

If Machida is exceptionally unorthodox, Bader is exceptionally orthodox. He came to the sport from the wrestling world having competed at a high level in college. Since coming to the UFC, he has added an excellent boxing game to compliment his wrestling. His boxing is highlighted by dangerous one punch knockout power in both of his hands. If he lands cleanly, he can finish any fight in an instant. In this fight, he’ll have the wrestling advantage and will need to use that to keep Machida guessing. The more he changes levels and forces Machida to think about defending takedowns the better his chances of winning will be. Machida has solid defensive wrestling so Bader may not be able to get him down and keep him down often but he needs to mix in takedowns and try to keep this fight on the inside as much as possible. He’ll need to find ways to close the distance to land his punching combinations as Machida will undoubtedly look to use his movement to stay on the outside. If Bader can find his way inside and make this an ugly fight with lots of pummeling for position against the cage and battling for takedowns, he could grind his way to a decision. And of course, if he finds Machida’s chin cleanly with a punch, he might not only win the fight but also earn his first shot at a UFC belt.

Machida enters this fight as the heavy favorite at -330 with Bader coming in at +270. Machida does have the advantage in every area other than wrestling but that doesn’t mean this fight’s outcome is predetermined. Bader’s hands can end any fight and he has the quickness to catch Machida. He also has the wrestling to force Machida against the cage and control him from there. But the more likely outcome of this fight will see Machida using his movement to keep Bader at a distance and pick him apart from there.

UFC 149 MMAFix Picks

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165) Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although.

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165)
Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although Faber is considered the underdog in the fight, I say Faber by decision or Barao by submission choke in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Faber

Emily: The oddsmakers are right on in choosing Renan Barao as the favorite. Not only will he come out with the victory, but he is the highest value bet. We will no doubt be seeing him fight for the bantamweight title as soon as the champ recovers. Winner: Pagado

John: This is a tough one. Renan Barao is the clear favorite mainly due to his sick ass 29 fight win streak, and don’t get me wrong he is a bad dude, but people need to remember that we’re dealing with the alpha male of team Alpha Male—so show some respect b*tches!! Both of these guys are finishers, but I think they’ll more than likely cancel each other out in that regard. It will all come down to the takedown battle. If the “California Kid” can score enough takedowns to keep Barao from really getting going on the standup, I think he is good enough to avoid his opponent’s rather spectacular submission game for the decision victory. If he can’t, then Barao will pick him apart the whole time while periodically stuffing takedowns for a unanimous nod from the judges. I give a slight edge to Barao for his standup, but I definitely don’t think the betting line is where it should be for this fight. Urijah Faber is a killer, period! He fought Mike Brown for five with two f*cked up hands and went five with Aldo at 145lbs…that said I still have Barao coming up with the decision. Winner: Pagado

Ryan: The day Barao beat Brad Pickett, I knew he would be champion. I think Faber is of the elite, but Barao is a 135 pound Jose Aldo, and Aldo gave Faber a beating. Barao by decision. Winner: Pagado

Alan: Faber is a fan favorite and it’s always hard to pick against him but Pagado is superior in almost every area. He’ll win this fight relatively easily probably taking at least four rounds on the way to a decision. If the line was a little more lopsided, I might be inclined to take a flyer on Faber but +165 isn’t enough to make it worth it. Winner: Pagado

MMAFIX Staff Pick: Pagado (4-1)

Hector Lombard (-390) vs. Tim Boetsch (+320)

John: Replacing the injured Brian Stann, Tim Boetsch is going to have his hands full with Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard. On an impressive 24 fight win streak of his own, Lombard has the power to put the “Barbarian” away, but as Boetsch showed in his last bout against former title challenger Yushin
Okami, you can beat the sh*t out of him the whole fight, and he can still knock you out in brutal fashion. Lombard, a former Olympian, has the resume to beat Boetsch on paper. The question here is whether or not Lombard f*cks people up the way he does because he has been fighting lower level competition or because he really is just that good. Either way we’ll find out Saturday.

Even though I’m rooting for Boetsch, I have to go with Lombard by first round KO or second round TKO—bro, he called out “the Warmaster,” heavyweight Josh Barnett….that’s right heavyweight.

For those of you who don’t understand, this means two things:

1. Hector Lombard has huge balls
2. Hector Lombard is just about the rawest motherf***er out there….sometimes you just have to believe in the crazy person.

Winner: Lombard

Ryan: I think that people make Lombard out to be better than he really is, and he hasn’t quite proved himself to be in the top 10 of the division yet. With that However, Tim boetsch is only in the top 10 from a crazy come from behind KO of Yushin Okami. With that being said, I agree with Lombard being the favorite, but not sure if the it’s too much in the favor of Lombard or not. Lombard knows if he is impressive in this fight he could get a title shot, so look for Lombard to end this fight quite. Lombard by TKO. Winner: Lombard

Alan: Like everyone else, I’m picking Lombard to win. But I love the line on Boetsch. Lombard hasn’t faced anyone near this caliber and this is his first UFC appearance. If I’m betting this fight, I’m going with Boetsch and hoping for the upset. He’s an underdog but not a +320 underdog. This is a perfect low risk high reward type of betting situation. Winner: Lombard

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lombard (3-0)

UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.

Strikeforce – Rockhold vs. Kennedy MMAFix Staff Picks

Luke Rockhold (-290) vs. Tim Kennedy (+245) Ryan: Both fighters are pretty well rounded, but I give Rockhold an edge in almost every skill. Rockhold by decision. Winner: Rockhold Alan: This fight sets up perfectly.

Luke Rockhold (-290) vs. Tim Kennedy (+245)

Ryan: Both fighters are pretty well rounded, but I give Rockhold an edge in almost every skill. Rockhold by decision. Winner: Rockhold

Alan: This fight sets up perfectly for Rockhold. He should be able to defend Kennedy’s takedowns and strike his way to victory. Winner: Rockhold

Nate Marquardt (-115) vs. Tyron Woodley (-105)

Ryan: Woodley’s wrestling won’t be enough to control Marquardt. Just too strong and too skilled. Marquardt by KO. Winner: Marqaurdt

Alan: I’m torn on this fight. We’ll know as soon as Woodley shoots the first time how this fight will play out. I’m going with Woodley’s wrestling ability and the weight cut to welterweight breaking Marquardt down over five rounds. But if Marquardt can defend the takedown, he should cruise to victory. Winner: Woodley

Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin

Ryan: Lawler could end the fight at any time with one punch, but he hasn’t been very consistent. Larkin is the more diverse striker and I think that will be the difference in this fight. Larkin by decision. Winner: Larkin

Alan: This fight is almost impossible to predict, which I’m guessing is why there’s no line at any of the major sites. Larkin is the better striker but Lawler has the power. I’m going to guess that Larkin won’t be able to stand for fifteen minutes without getting dropped but it could just as easily of the other way. Winner: Lawler

Roger Gracie (-260) vs. Keith Jardine (+180)

Ryan: I’m going with Gracie based on the fact that Travor Prangley was able to work Jardine over, while Gracie tapped him out quick. Gracie by submission. Winner: Gracie

Alan: This is another fight that could go either way. Gracie is a significant favorite but I’m going with the underdog. I’m betting on Jardine finding Gracie’s somewhat glassy chin before Gracie can drag him down to the mat. But if Gracie does get the fight to the ground, this one will be over instantly. Winner: Jardine

Strikeforce – Rockhold vs. Kennedy: Pre-Fight Analysis

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy

Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only loss in his second career fight. His last two victories have been his most impressive coming against Ronaldo Souza and Keith Jardine. Kennedy has put together back to back victories over Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler after losing a championship fight against Souza.

Rockhold comes in with momentum after dominating Jardine and finishing him via TKO in the first round. But his victory before that against Souza to win the belt was even more impressive. Souza is one of the better fighters in the middleweight division and Rockhold managed to keep the fight mostly on the feet and battered him from there. He has shown an increasingly diversified striking game combined with a defensive wrestling and scrambling ability that allow him to take advantage of his strengths in the standup. He will look to do just that against Kennedy who prefers to take fighters down and work for submission. Kennedy is a good striker but Rockhold should have the advantage and as long as he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. Kennedy will be tough to finish but if he does it, that would be another impressive statement. More likely is a unanimous decision after five rounds of high level striking.

Kennedy’s biggest asset to this point in his career has been his grappling. He has found the most success by taking his opponents down and working for submissions. He has also shown some excellent ground and pound. If he wants to use those skills, he has a tough task as Rockhold has shown excellent takedown defense and Kennedy isn’t a great wrestler. He will need to mix in his takedowns with his striking and time his shots as counters to Rockhold’s striking to have the best chance of success. He will also need to work hard to keep Rockhold down as he has shown an excellent ability to get back to his feet once on he hits the ground. If Kennedy can get Rockhold down and keep him there, he can win this fight. But that will be difficult to do and he will need to keep Rockhold guessing and off balance in order to do it.

Rockhold is the big favorite at -310 with Kennedy at +255. This fight sets up in Rockhold’s favor as he should be able to defends against Kennedy’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. If that happens, Rockhold should have the advantage and strike his way to a victory. But if Kennedy can somehow find a way to get the fight to the mat and control Rockhold , he could pull of the upset.

Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley

The first title fight of the night will feature former UFC contender Nate Marquardt and undefeated prospect Tyron Woodley competing for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight belt. Marquardt comes to Strikeforce after alternating wins and losses in his last five UFC appearances. He earned a decision victory over Dan Miller at UFC 128 in his last fight after losing to Yushin Okami in a title contender elimination fight. Woodley has been impressive in his undefeated Strikeforce run earning victories over Jordan Mein and Paul Daley in his last two fights bringing his record to ten wins and no losses.

Marquardt has long been one of the better fighters in the middleweight division but has been unable to climb to the top of division. Because of that, he has decided to not only drop to welterweight but has also made the jump from the UFC to Strikeforce where he can fight for a title immediately. Marquardt basically had no choice but to be a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond after the UFC released him. He has lost a bit of credibility in the past year with his testosterone replacement therapy saga but this fight is an opportunity to get his career back on the right track. He brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage with the ability to finish from any position. Against an excellent wrestler like Woodley, expect him to try to keep the fight standing. The key to this fight will be his defensive wrestling. If he can fend off Woodley’s takedowns, he should have the advantage in the striking game. But if he finds himself on his back, he’ll be in trouble. The other key will be how his body handles the weight cut. If this fight goes five rounds, his body will be tested. Any time a fighter makes a change in weight class the first fight is always a bit of a challenge and five rounds will only make the challenge even more difficult.

Woodley’s win streak to start his career is now at ten fights and he will look to make it eleven by earning the first title of his MMA career. He is not as well-rounded as his opponent and will rely almost entirely on his wrestling to earn the victory. He needs to be able to get Marquardt down and control him on the ground. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the striking to compete on the feet. He has the power to land a haymaker but not the technique to consistently outstrike Marquardt. Because of that, he needs to focus on getting the fight to the ground and grinding his way to victory. The more he can force Marquardt to wrestle the better his chances of wearing him out and testing the weight cut become. His chances also improve as the fight goes longer for the same reasons. If Woodley wants to win, he has to make the fight slow and ugly. And luckily for him, that’s exactly his style.

Marquardt is the slight favorite in this fight at -130 with Woodley coming in at +110. That seems about right as Marquardt has a significant advantage in experience and Woodley has never faced anyone of his caliber before. If Marquardt’s defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. But if Woodley can be successful with his takedowns and maintain top position, he’ll grind his way to a decision.

Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin

Strikeforce is showing a little love to the fans by giving us a guaranteed slugfest and more than likely a KO or TKO finish with a middleweight fight between Lorenz Larkin and Robbie Lawler. Both fighters prefer to stand and both have the power to finish. Larkin is the more technical fighter and uses a more well-rounded striking attack incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. Lawler prefers to box and mix in some powerful knees when the opportunity arises. However, Lawler may have the slight advantage in power and explosiveness.

The analysis for this fight is pretty straightforward. These guys are going to stand and bang and eventually one of them is probably going to fall. None of the major sites have a line on this fight but if they did, it would have to be close. Either fighter is capable of landing the strike that ends the fight at any moment. I could stretch this out longer to try to sound smarter but this fight is what is so enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I know I will.

Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine

To open a big night for Strikeforce that features two title fights, Roger Gracie will face Keith Jardine in the light heavyweight division. Gracie carries the banner for the first family of MMA into this fight against Jardine who carries the banner for ugly fighting styles. These two fighters are polar opposites in their approaches with Gracie coming from a storied Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and employing a traditional style that led him to great success on the grappling circuit while Jardine seems to come into every fight looking to make it an ugly brawl to create openings for his powerful punches.

Gracie’s striking has improved in recent fights but he is still a grappler first. He will be looking to get the fight to the mat as quickly as possible and avoid engaging Jardine on the feet. The question will be whether or not he has the wrestling to succeed in taking down Jardine. If he can, the fight will likely be over quickly after that. Jardine will be looking to ugly up the fight as much as possible and use his unorthodox striking to keep Gracie off balance. While Gracie has shown a willingness to strike, he still doesn’t seem to respond well to getting hit and if Jardine can land one of his looping punches, he could get an opportunity to finish his opponent. But he needs to be careful because if he stuns Gracie and follows him to the ground to try for a finish, he could find himself in a submission.

The bookmakers have Gracie as a solid favorite at -260 with Jardine at +180. I’m not sure why Gracie is such a big favorite given that the fight will start on the feet and Jardine has a significant advantage in that area. I’m also not convinced that Gracie will be able to drag Jardine to the mat before eating a few shots. Both fighters have a clear path to victory here and the winner will be determined by who executes his gameplan more efficiently. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wrap it up quickly. But if Jardine can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish Gracie.

UFC on Fuel TV 4 – MMAFix Staff Picks

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks.

Most of the staff is still recovering from UFC 148 so for UFC on Fuel TV 4, only Ryan and I will bringing you picks. But after his 6-0 performance on Saturday, who else’s picks do you really need?


Chris Weidman (-145) vs. Mark Munoz (+115)
Ryan: No clue why Weidman is the favorite to win. Munoz has faced higher level opponents and he looked more impressive than Weidman when you compare both their fights against Demian Maia. Munoz will shrug off Weidman’s submission attempts and control him on the ground. Munoz by TKO via GNP. Winner: Munoz

Alan: I’m with Ryan here. I don’t expect a finish but I don’t see why Weidman is the favorite. And not only is he the favorite, but the line has moved more in his favor since the end of last week, which means people are betting Weidman. I don’t understand it. Two great wrestlers usually equals a striking match and Munoz has a pretty clear advantage there. What am I missing? Winner: Munoz


James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
Ryan: Te-Huna is coming off 2 impressive knockout wins, while Beltran lost his last 2 fights in the octagon. Te-Huna is better than Beltran in every aspect of the game. Te-Huna by KO. Winner: Te Huna

Alan: This is going to be a slugfest and I’m taking Te Huna as well. Beltran has a brick chin but Te Huna has a brick fist so as long as he lands first, he should get a quick TKO victory. Winner: Te Huna


Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
Ryan: As long as Simpson isn’t drained by his first weight cut to 170lbs (which he shouldn’t because he his a veteran wrestler), he should have no problem beating Robertson. Simpson is a better wrestler and a more powerful striker. Simpson by TKO. Winner: Simpson

Alan: What we have here is a great minds think alike type situation. The biggest challenge for Simpson in this fight will be the weight cut. As long as he doesn’t gas, he should win this one easily. No disrespect to Robertson but Simpson went from a huge underdog to a huge favorite when Robertson was announced to replace Jon Fitch. Winner: Simpson


Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont
Ryan: Vemola is a beast at 185lbs. He will have no problem out wrestling Carmont and look to take his back. If Vemola can’t sink in the RNC he will finish the fight by GNP. Winner: Vemola

Alan: We agree again. I don’t think the gap is as big between these two and Vemola could be in trouble if he decides to stand and trade but as long as he looks to get the takedown and control Carmont on the mat, he should be able to earn the victory. Winner: Vemola


T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
Ryan: Lee is a well rounded fighter, but Dillashaw will sooner or later take Lee down and submit him (most likely with a RNC). Winner: Dillashaw

Alan: I don’t think this one will be close. Dillashaw is constantly improving training at Team Alpha Male and Lee was supposed to be a feeder for Kid Yamamoto. Dillashaw did everything but finish Walel Watson in his last fight and hopefully he can take that next step against Lee. Winner: Dillashaw


Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Ryan: Njokuani has trouble with good ground fighters. On top of that, Rafael dos Anjos has developed some excellent striking. Rafael dos Anjos by submission. Winner: Dos Anjos

Alan: We finally disagree! But after Ryan’s perfect night, I don’t feel great about it. I don’t think Dos Anjos has the wrestling to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Danny Castillo struggled to keep him down and I don’t think Dos Anjos has that kind of wrestling. I expect Njokuani to keep this fight mostly on the feet and strike his way to victory. Winner: Njokuani