Tag: Multiple Sports

UFC Undisputed 3 Prediction: Jim Miller Narrowly Beats Nate Diaz at UFC on FOX 3

How do you predict Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller at UFC on FOX 3?In the lead-up to the third UFC fight card on FOX, there has been an interesting shift in fight predictions for the main event. While Nate Diaz has looked nothing short of unstoppable in wins …

How do you predict Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller at UFC on FOX 3?

In the lead-up to the third UFC fight card on FOX, there has been an interesting shift in fight predictions for the main event. While Nate Diaz has looked nothing short of unstoppable in wins over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, many MMA pundits think that Jim Miller will most likely walk away with a tidy decision win. Indeed, the recipe for Diaz’s defeat looks very similar to his matchups against Clay Guida, Gray Maynard, Rory MacDonald and Kim Dong-Hyun—elite ground specialists who can take a punch as well as they dish them out.

But while there’s no way to test-run the headliners against each other ahead of the actual event, there is one valuable fight prediction tool that hasn’t been utilized since UFC 144 in Japan: UFC Undisputed 3. Considered as the “Madden” of mixed martial arts games, the THQ and Yuke’s product has been used several times to simulate popular fights and predict winners based on large data sets. For the most part, it’s been a successful tool, correctly picking the victors in 6-out-of-8 UFC events.

With no UFC Undisputed 3 fight prediction for Jon Jones vs. Rashad Evans (or any other UFC fights since then), I took the time to simulate the upcoming fight between Nate Diaz and Jim Miller in a similar fashion to the methods used by the game’s developers and producers for past UFC events:

  • Each match set between two CPU-controlled fighters
  • Simulated 25 total fights
  • Each fight set at five rounds
  • CPU difficulty set to “Ultimate”
  • Game rules set to “Competition”
  • Energy settings set to “Simulation”

And after running the data over two days, UFC Undisputed 3 predicted that Jim Miller defeats Nate Diaz, albeit by the most razor-thin margins possible.

Not only did the majority of the 25 five-round fights go to a decision, but the judges’ scorecards often read 48-47 across the board. In total, the simulations gave Jim Miller 13 wins out of 25, with Nate Diaz picking up the other 12 victories. In fact, the last simulated fight proved to be a tie-breaker, as both fighters were dead even after 24 simulated bouts.

Here’s a look at the data from the fight simulations, with the full tables visible here and here:

Jim Miller:

  • 13 wins (10 via Unanimous Decision, 2 via KO, 1 via TKO)
  • Miller attempted an average of 11.8 takedowns per fight, and landed an average of 4.6
  • Miller landed 114 takedowns out of 296 attempts (in 25 fights)

Nate Diaz:

  • 12 wins (12 via Unanimous Decision)
  • Diaz threw/landed more strikes than Miller on average (punches, elbows, kicks, knees)
  • Diaz was only knocked down 3 times in 25 fights

Notable Trends:

  • Neither fighter won or lost by Submission
  • Miller and Diaz threw a combined average of 255.1 strikes per fight
  • 24 out of 25 fights made it to the fifth round

Both fighters are rated very closely in UFC Undisputed 3, but a clear edge seems to go to Miller’s takedowns and Diaz’s simulated inability to stop them.

The Bottom Line:

Unlike Donald Cerrone, Jim Miller doesn’t seem like the type to abandon the type of gameplan that will serve him best, no matter how many middle fingers the younger Diaz brother dishes out in-between rounds. Although it’s unlikely that Nate Diaz can be stopped on strikes, the most likely situation—as most have guessed—is that Miller will outwork Diaz just enough to win on the judges’ scorecards. As the UFC Undisputed 3 data suggests, a decision is guaranteed either way, but a win for Miller will only come on the razor’s edge.

[McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist and former writer for GamePro, PC World, and Macworld. Follow his Twitter account for crazy talk, 1990s movie references, and general weirdness. Or you could just stalk him on Google.]

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NHL Playoffs 2012: The NHL Needs More Dana White and Less Gary Bettman

The NHL playoffs have been a wild ride this year for fans and teams alike. What can we learn from these NHL playoffs? I think there’s one thing above all else—this is Gary Bettman’s league. Welcome to Gary’s world ladies and gentleman. You a…

The NHL playoffs have been a wild ride this year for fans and teams alike. What can we learn from these NHL playoffs? I think there’s one thing above all else—this is Gary Bettman’s league. 

Welcome to Gary’s world ladies and gentleman. You are now a fan of the league Mr. Bettman envisioned when he became commissioner—a league ruled by parity and the all mighty dollar. 

The fact of the matter is that the NHL has never been as financially stable is it is now under Bettman’s leadership. I know hockey fans don’t want to hear this, but it’s true. The competitive balance in the NHL has never been more level than it is today under Bettman’s leadership, thanks to his institution of the salary cap. I know hockey fans don’t want to hear this either. 

Why don’t hockey fans want to hear these facts? Why do so many hate that Bettman is successful? The answer is pretty simple, Bettman has bastardized the sport so many love. During his stead as commissioner, Bettman has systematically assaulted the sport in the pursuit of profitability.

He has promoted its “expansion,” while ignoring the real fans here in the Northern US and Canada. He has made it clear that in his NHL, the qualities that make hockey special—the tradition, the physicality, the skill, and yes, the fighting—are less important than the potential fans in the south and if they can tell you who Sidney Crosby is. 

And that’s where this article comes to a head. The NHL needs more Dana White and less Gary Bettman. How does the free-speaking president of the UFC fit into a conversation about the NHL? 

Well, to put it simply, Dana White is the other side of the Gary Bettman coin. When White and the Fertitta Brothers bought the UFC in the 90s, they had similar problems to the NHL. White was the president of an organization that was less than profitable and carried a significant stigma to the general public—cage-fighting was barbaric.

But rather than bend at the whims of the general public and the dollar, White made sure the UFC stayed loyal to its constituents. Although there were significant rule changes, the feel of the sport stayed the same.

Now fast forward nearly 20 years. The UFC just pulled in an estimated 700,000 pay-per-view buys for its UFC 145 card and recently signed a big-time deal with the FOX network.

Mixed martial arts is now the fastest growing sport in the world because of the popularity of the UFC. The NHL on the other hand? According to the Washington Post, NFL draft coverage gathered more viewership than Game 7 of the Caps-Bruins in Washington. 

I know I don’t speak for all fans, but I believe I speak for many when I say I wish things were different. I wish Mr. Bettman would recognize what hockey and the NHL is. The NHL will never compete with the NFL or MLB here in America, and that’s fine.

NHL Hockey is a niche sport for the Northern USA and Canada—and the fans here love it. We love that the NHL is a violent game. We love that it’s a game where players police themselves. We love the tradition of our game. 

Maybe it’s time Mr. Bettman steps back and learns a thing or two from Dana White. It’s time to take care of your fans Gary. Would the league be as profitable? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t have an answer to that question. But the real shame of it is that we probably won’t get that answer for a long, long time. 

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Frankie Edgar: Ranking the Toughest Fighters from New Jersey

Frankie Edgar is a very tough guy. He has produced amazing moments that are epic sport classics. The inept UFC commentator, Mike Goldberg, often claims that Edgar is the toughest fighter to ever come from the Garden State.
This is more t…

Frankie Edgar is a very tough guy. He has produced amazing moments that are epic sport classics. The inept UFC commentator, Mike Goldberg, often claims that Edgar is the toughest fighter to ever come from the Garden State.

This is more than hyperbolic as he has really only displayed his mettle thrice. Edgar showed indomitable grit in the Edgar-Henderson bout, in Edgar-Maynard 2 and Edgar-Maynard 3. While his performances truly were legendary in these three instances, there are others who have distinguished themselves over a longer time period.

As a general rule, I disregard anything Mike Goldberg says. Naturally, he is wrong and seeing where he was wrong is intriguing. Which New Jersey fighters truly deserve that title of the “toughest” fighter to ever come from New Jersey?

Here is a suggested list of five tougher fighters submitted for your consideration. Or does “The Answer” deserve to be on the list? Please inform me where improvements can be made and add your insights.

 

 

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Begin Slideshow

Brock Lesnar Turned Down Offer from Floyd Mayweather Sr.

Brock Lesnar has been retired from MMA since UFC 141 last December, and yet he is still making headlines. After an eight-year hiatus from the WWE, Lesnar returned April 2nd on Monday Night Raw, as he gave WWE superstar John Cena his old finishing…

Brock Lesnar has been retired from MMA since UFC 141 last December, and yet he is still making headlines.

After an eight-year hiatus from the WWE, Lesnar returned April 2nd on Monday Night Raw, as he gave WWE superstar John Cena his old finishing move: the F5.

Lesnar has since appeared on Raw two times and will be making his long anticipated return to the squared circle on Sunday, April 29th at Extreme Rules in Chicago against Cena.

A lot of the public has said that Lesnar had one foot out the door after his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 121 in October 2011, and going though the motions against Alistair Overeem at UFC 141 in December.

Another criticism of Lesnar in his UFC days was that he didn’t like to get hit in training camp and never really worked on his standup game. I spoke to famed boxing expert Percy Crawford, who now writes for Fighthype.com, who gave an interesting note that could prove that theory to be true.

“I actually offered I believe it was before the Shane Carwin fight (at UFC 116). His friend Paul Heyman took him with Floyd Mayweather, Sr.,” Crawford told me.

“Heyman said, ‘You know what? That’s not a bad idea. Let me talk to Brock and get back with ya.’

“And then it was kinda like, uh Brock’s kinda comfortable in Minnesota. We’re gonna go with what we have.”

Mayweather Sr, who’s the father and former trainer of boxing champion Floyd Mayweather Jr., has also trained the likes of Ricky Hatton, BJ Penn and former boxing great Oscar De La Hoya in the past.

You can listen to the full interview here.

You can also follow me on Twitter @fightclubchi.

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Will the UFC Ever Reach the NFL’s Level?

For quite a long time now, one of the biggest questions in relation to the UFC’s efforts to elevate MMA into the mainstream is the question of whether the UFC will ever reach the NFL’s level.The question is a broad one, as various criteria exist in def…

For quite a long time now, one of the biggest questions in relation to the UFC’s efforts to elevate MMA into the mainstream is the question of whether the UFC will ever reach the NFL’s level.

The question is a broad one, as various criteria exist in defining what it means for the UFC to reach the NFL’s level, though in all honesty, the “MMA has gone global and football hasn’t” argument is null and void when one finds out that other countries actually serve as the home of associations who regulate the sport of American Football, and if you know where to look, it’s easy to see where those American Football associations are.

Now, the UFC is getting closer and closer to where most envisioned it’d be, now that they have the FOX deal in place and now that they’re expanding all over the world, but are they really on the NFL’s level?

In terms of excitement and conversation-worthy news events, as well as consistently memorable action from start to finish, yes.

If a Tim Tebow doesn’t get traded to a New York Jets-type franchise or if a free agent doesn’t make some noise or post Peyton Manning’s numbers, it’s no real area of concern because a day without news of trades, contract extensions or anything similar is not much different from a day with a 1,000 people talking about a fight that hasn’t yet come to any sort of fruition simply because the day has no real news to talk about.

Every sport will always have their slow news days, but the bottom line in any sport is the action.

For over four decades, however, statistics have shown that the NFL has been the most watched spectator sport in the world, even despite Super Bowl games that left a little to be desired for most fans apart from the sizzle of the half-time shows and the commercials.

If that’s what is referred to in asking whether the UFC will be on the NFL’s level, then it’s tough to say if it will ever hit that level, and it’s definitely tough to see how the UFC is on that level right now, especially considering how some still conservatively react to the sport.

Nonetheless, an optimistic mind must remain when it comes to the progression of MMA as a mainstream sport, because even if it never hits the NFL’s level, fans will watch it grow and evolve into a sport that hits a level all its own, and the level at which it reaches could be anywhere either near or above where the NFL’s level is before anyone ever realizes it.

A long shot is that notion, but an impossibility it is not at all.

Don’t believe it?

Watch that UFC product, watch what they do in 2012 for the sport of MMA, and then prove me wrong. 

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UFC 144: Henderson Beat Edgar Badly, Yet Questions Remain

As I wrote last week regarding Jake Ellenberger and Diego Sanchez, MMA scoring has some serious flaws.  Once again, this was made somewhat evident at UFC 144, during the UFC Lightweight title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson. &nbsp…

As I wrote last week regarding Jake Ellenberger and Diego Sanchez, MMA scoring has some serious flaws.  

Once again, this was made somewhat evident at UFC 144, during the UFC Lightweight title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson.  After a dominating performance by Henderson, UFC President Dana White commented that he believed “Edgar won.”  The same was said by UFC fighter and analyst Kenny Florian, amongst others.  

It begs the question: What fight were they watching?  

Did they watch it live, or on television?  

I have yet to hear back from Florian, but I know White watches the bouts on a television monitor, albeit one that is maybe 15 inches wide.  It may seem odd how the UFC President, the man with the best seat in the house, is watching on a television, but he is quite intelligently watching the entire production, and not just the action.  Hence the monitor.  

However, even having watched it on a monitor, White is still affected by the sounds that take place in the cage.  This is an important point because a lot of times what may sound like a powerful punch, leg kick or slam really is not one at all.

If someone smacked you with an open hand on your thigh, a loud noise would emanate, but it really does not cause much damage.  Now if a person took their closed fist and hit your thigh with the same force, you may only hear a thud, but it would certainly cause more pain and damage than an open-handed slap.  

You get my point?

This is one of the problems with cage-side judging in MMA, and it is another reason there should be judges watching the fights on television.  The close-range sights, sounds, and angles at a UFC fight do not necessarily equate with the damage being caused.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that anyone who viewed last night’s UFC title fight on television not only believed Henderson won, but believed it was not even close.

In scoring the fight I had it 49-46 for Henderson, with Edgar barely getting the nod in Round 3, but I could even see that round going the other way.

All of this becomes a problem because you have White, the most influential man in the sport, and Florian, a well-known fighter and commentator, claiming in their respective opinions that Edgar won.  

That has a resonating effect through the sport, as fans and media members begin to question Henderson’s victory.  There should be no controversy.  The fight was a one-sided affair from start to finish. 

A couple weeks ago UFC Announcer Joe Rogan said he believed Carlos Condit won his welterweight bout against Nick Diaz.  Like White, Rogan is cage-side, but sees bouts only from one angle, with extra audio in his head gear.  

Soon afterward Rogan watched a television replay and believes Diaz won (as do I).  So here we have influential UFC personalities espousing their opinions about very big fights at a time when they really have not seen the fight in its entirety.  

Yes, they saw all the rounds, but so much of the action cannot be viewed so close to the cage.  I would even argue that being too close hurts your ability to see it, and that fans who are a few rows up in the stands have much better angles.  

Fights should be viewed from all angles before anyone weighs in, and the only way to do that is by seeing it on television, which is truly close up.  And this goes for judges too, who are in no better position than any other cage-side viewer.

As someone who did a lot of production work for the UFC, I have witnessed more than 300 fights live.  There have been times when I believed I too had the best seat in the house, only to realize I was mistaken.  Like White, Florian, Rogan and others, I have witnessed a man defeat another, only to severely change my opinion upon watching it again on television.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that television gives the fans, judges and everyone else a better view of nearly every sporting event, and MMA is no different.  

MMA scoring also has to change.  

Ironically, it was in Japan where Pride judges scored fights as a “whole.”  I keep hearing people say, “Henderson won the fight as a whole, but Edgar may have won the rounds.”  Without getting too far into this aspect on its face, it just sounds stupid, no?  

In what other sport does this ever happen?  Even in boxing when you believe a fighter won “the whole” it is extremely rare the loser “won more rounds.”  

So why MMA?

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