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UFC 122 Predictions

UFC 122 – Marquardt VS. Okami takes place this Saturday, November 13th, in Oberhausen, Germany. The Chael Sonnen steroid controversy has led to the shuffling of this main event. Originally, Vitor Belfort was to take on Yushin Okami for #1 Middleweight contender status. However, now that Sonnen is out of an instant rematch with Anderson […]

There are a lot of new faces on this card, as is the norm for overseas UFC events. With these new faces come possible betting potential. Myself and Mike Hammersmith will take a look at the three best bets for this weekend’s UFC card. In addition to our best bets, make sure to keep up to date on the UFC 122 odds and UFC 122 Pros’ Picks.

Nate Marquardt – Mike Hammersmith -210 on Bookmaker)

With Vitor Belfort being shuffled into a title shot, Yushin Okami was left without an opponent for his bout in Germany at UFC 122. This situation didn’t last long though, as Nate “The Great” Marquardt was thrown deep into the title mix at 185lbs, and is set to take on Okami in a number one contenders match.

There are certain niche styles that make a fighter nearly impossible to beat for some, and easy pickings for others, and Okami has one such style. His lengthy striking and unmovable base has made him a nightmare for limited fighters like Jason MacDonald and Dean Lister, but Marquardt will suffer no such issues with the Japanese striker. Armed with huge power on the feet and underrated combination attacks, Marquardt should be able to stick and move on Okami, land power shots, and ultimately defeat Okami at his own game. At -210, Marquardt makes a fantastic anchor bet for this night of fights.

Jorge Rivera – Mike Hammersmith -115 on Bodog)

Jorge Rivera and Alessio Sakara are both old hands in the UFC, and will clash for the first time in a guaranteed slug fest. Rivera has had personal tragedy in his life in the last year, but with his confidence returned following a 3-0 run and beautiful victory over Nate Quarry, he will look to move forward in his career. His opponent is the notoriously hot and cold Alessio Sakara, who is himself on a three-fight win streak following a beating of the terribly dehydrated James Irvin in his last bout.

This fight comes down to the punching power and chin of both strikers, and Rivera has a solid advantage in both areas. In this potential FOTN match-up, Rivera’s clinch striking, strength and excellent power with combination strikes should seal the deal for him, either with an early KO or decision win based on his standing control in the fight. In a stand-up bout, Rivera has all the answers and makes for a strong bet at -115.

Vladimir Matyushenko – Mike Hammersmith (-270 on Bodog)

Overseas events always include a lot of new talent, and UFC 122 is no exception. One such new arrival comes to us in the Light Heavyweight division, as 18-6 Alexandre Ferreira makes his octagon debut. With twelve years in the sport, and a slew of submission grappling accomplishments, Ferreira comes into this fight looking like a real killer on paper, but will find out the hard way that paper doesn’t do much fighting. His opponent is another rugged veteran in Vladimir Matyushenko, who has managed to hold his own since returning to the UFC, and will have every advantage against newcomer Ferreira.

Looking closely at Ferreira, we immediately see issues with this match-up. A muscle-bound BJJ practitioner, the 5’7″ Ferreira will find himself at a huge height disadvantage against everyone in this division, including the average-sized Matyushenko. This leaves him well outside his comfortable shooting zone, meaning his take downs will be a slower than they need to be in the MMA arena. We also notice that while his record is impressive in a cursory sense, there are no submissions from bottom on his record, or knockouts. This leads us to believe that he’ll be depending on those take downs to get anything done in his fights, which is confirmed with the footage found online.

If a take down is your only hope of victory, you’d definitely want to avoid fighting someone like Matyushenko. While Matyushenko has started to look his age in recent bouts, the Belarusian fighter is still a powerful and technically sound wrestler, who has the simple striking game to fluster someone like Ferreira. Combine this with Ferreira’s over-sized frame and we’re sure to have a very tired Brazilian on our hands midway through this fight. Matyushenko has never been a great finisher, so I expect this one to go to a clear decision for Matyushenko after a match spent sprawling and sticking jabs into his opponent’s face.

Goran Reljic – MMAMoneyLine (-115 on BetUS/Bodog)

Both Goran Reljic and his opponent, Krzysztof Soszynski, are coming off losses. It is possible that both of these guys are on the UFC chopping block, although a Reljic loss is more likely to send him packing than a Soszynski loss. This fight comes down to which fighter has more tools to be successful. Reljic’s main weakness is his take down defense, as seen in the CB Dollaway fight. However, Soszynski is not much of a shooter; he is a fighter who likes to box and clinch his opponents.

Reljic will have the advantage in both the striking and the submission department. In addition, he isn’t the best guy to get into a clinch with. Soszynski will have a strength advantage, but I am starting to question his chin after getting knocked out by Stephan Bonnar.

If Soszynski’s camp is smart, they will have told him to look for an early take down. However, I have to assume that Soszynski will come in looking to box and clinch. He will get hit by Reljic, who has the potential to cause some real damage on the feet. I think a late Reljic stoppage or a clear decision is a good bet.

Karlos Vemola – MMAMoneyLine (-105 on SportBet)

Someone is an underdog against Seth Petruzelli! A few notable items here: Petruzelli did look good in the first round of his last fight with Ricardo Romero, but ultimately gassed in the second and submitted to an armbar. Petruzelli’s crowning MMA achievements have been knocking out Kimbo Slice (…) and beating a 106 year old Dan Severn. Nothing tells me he is going to be able to overwhelm a beast like Karlos Vemola, either on the feet or on the floor. Although Vemola did not look great against Jon Madsen, nobody really looks great against Jon Madsen. Vemola has never been submitted, never been knocked out, is dropping down from Heavyweight, and will have a huge strength advantage. With that information alone, I’m happy taking him at -120 or better.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Marquardt/UD

Rivera/KO/2

Siver/UD

Sadollah/UD

Reljic/TKO/2

Matyushenko/UD

Vemola/SUB/2

Noke/SD

Osipczak/SUB/1

Rocha/SUB/2

Krauss/SD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Rivera – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog

Reljic – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog

Vemola – 1 u. at -105 on SportBet

UFC 121 Predictions

UFC 121 – Lesnar VS. Velasquez takes place this Saturday, October 23 in Anaheim, California. There are so many great fights and interesting storylines on this card that is it next to impossible not to be excited. Will fan favorite Cain Velasquez use his speed, stamina, and technique to beat up the polarizing Brock Lesnar? Will Jake Shields enter the UFC with a bang in hopes of fighting Georges St. Pierre in 2011? Will Matt Hamill prove that the student is superior to the teacher? UFC 121 is going to be a good one, for spectator and bettors alike.

Myself and my colleague Mike Hammersmith will be breaking down what we believe to be our best bets of the card (and there are several good bets to choose from). As always, make sure you line shop wisely by checking the UFC 121 odds, and also be sure to take a gander at the UFC 121 Pros’ Picks. It is to Saturday we now look…

Matt Hamill – Mike Hammersmith -170 on Bodog/BetUS)

My favorite bet for UFC 121 comes in the form of the first TUF coach vs. TUF student fight, when Season 3 coach Tito Ortiz takes on his number one pick, Matt “The Hammer” Hamill. The story of Tito Ortiz is a tail of a dominant early career, followed by a fairly continuous stream of injuries and management issues that has left him a shadow of his former self. While Ortiz was once known for his solid double leg and vicious ground and pound, he is far behind the curve in the wrestling realm, and with little to fall back on. Hamill comes into this fight with the sprawl to stop Ortiz every time, and the boxing to punish his former coach standing. While the odds have floated around for this fight, Hamill is a great bet at -170 to sprawl and brawl Ortiz to a late stoppage or decision win.

John Madsen – Mike Hammersmith -200 on Sportsbook)

Following one of the most depressing grappling exchanges I’ve ever seen, Gilbert Yvel will return to the cage, replacing a recently released Todd Duffee. Yvel hasn’t shown any of the fire he used to have in his Pride days, and having gone 0-2 thus far, it’s needless to say he’s in a do-or-die situation. His opponent is TUF 10 fighter Jon Madsen, who has toiled on the under cards thus far in his career, but has shown progress in each fight. This a stylistic nightmare for Yvel, as he faces a man who has absolutely no reservations about riding out the clock, and has all the skill to put Yvel on the mat over and over again. While Yvel does have one punch power, he’s going to have to use it to avoid being booted from the UFC.

With a style built to destroy guys like Yvel, and having shared a training camp with Brock Lesnar, we can expect the toughest Madsen we’ve ever seen. Yvel has a handful of chances to finish this fight standing, or risk being underneath the heavyweight wrestler for the entire fight. Don’t count on the flying knee landing for Yvel, as Madsen double legs his way to victory via decision, and is the most solid bet on the card at -200

Chris Camozzi – Mike Hammersmith (EVEN on Bodog/Bookmaker)

One of the many injured fighters from TUF 11, Chris Camozzi was forced off the show with a broken jaw, but was given a chance to fight at the season finale. Taking on James Hammortree at the TUF 11 Finale, he showed a skill set that could have won him the show had his health allowed it, using fast leg kicks, outside striking and a relentless pace. His opponent is a bit of an unknown, as Dong Yi Yang has spent the majority of his career in the lesser ranks of Asian MMA, and effectively off the radar. What we have seen of him makes me question the reason for signing him, as he brings a wild sluggers style that won’t get him far in the Middleweight division.

We don’t have much to go on for Yang, but what we do know isn’t very encouraging. Between this being his first fight overseas in the big show, coming from a less-than-stellar camp, and dropping nearly 40lbs for this fight, the cards appear to be stacked against him. Camozzi’s size, reach and overall pace should be enough to chip away at Yang, sapping his power, and taking the win. Surprisingly, Camozzi comes in as an underdog here, and while the odds aren’t as great as they were early, he’s still a great value pick at even money.

Brock Lesnar – MMAMoneyLine (-140 on BetUS/Bookmaker)

Brock Lesnar might be the least respected fighter in MMA. I know people don’t like him, but as MMA bettors we have to look at things without bias. Brock Lesnar is the champion who has beaten three UFC Heavyweight champions in Frank Mir, Randy Couture, and Shane Carwin. Lesnar has unbelievable strength and athleticism, very heavy hands, world class wrestling, and a formidable chin. He has also reportedly leaned up quite a bit, so he likely will not be at his usual 280-285 lbs. come fight time.

Cain Velasquez will be undersized going into this fight, but will have a speed and striking technique advantage. As for Velasquez’s apparently legendary cardio, I think the attention paid to it is laughable. Yes, Cain’s cardio is extremely impressive for a heavyweight, but Lesnar isn’t Yoshi Akiyama here. Lesnar’s cardio is every bit as much of a tool as Velasquez’s; you don’t beat the snot out of Heath Herring for three rounds without letting up if you don’t have cardio.

For Velasquez to win this fight, he is going to have to overwhelm Lesnar with strikes in the first round or knock him clean out early. As we’ve seen in the Carwin fight, Lesnar can be overwhelmed with strikes. However, Shane Carwin is one of the hardest strikers in MMA and the uppercut and knee he landed on Lesnar would have likely flat-lined any other fighter. When choosing between Velasquez’s one punch power and Lesnar’s chin, I’d take the Viking.

Many people are also pointing to Velasquez’s kicks as an advantage in this fight. If you kick Brock Lesnar, he will take you down. Once he takes you down, it’s difficult to get out from under him (especially if you come from a wrestling background).

In the end, Lesnar has better wrestling and power. Velasquez is going to give him a run in the first round, maybe even the second round. However, Brock is going to get a double leg sooner or later and finish Velasquez off with about 250 hammer fists. Lesnar’s line has really bottomed out lately, and I believe it will get better by Saturday. I’m fine with Lesnar at -140, but I can definitely see him getting down to -120 or lower.

Brendan Schaub – MMAMoneyLine (-150 on SportBet)

To be perfectly honest, I was going back and forth on this fight until today. Gabriel Gonzaga is an extremely streaky fighter who has the ability to land a one punch KO or quick submission. Finding a Heavyweight with Gonzaga’s striking power and BJJ acumen is very tough. It can be argued that all of his five career losses have been to world class competition (dos Santos, Carwin, Couture, Werdum twice).

However, MMA is a “what have you done for me lately” sport where a fighter’s recent performances are generally more indicative of how they are going to look in the cage. Going 3-2 in your last five fights with two of those wins coming against a newcomer and a poor fighter and one coming via horrendous ball shot doesn’t bode well.

It comes down to this: Gonzaga’s been knocked out five times in his career and Brendan Schaub has what it takes to make it six. Schaub has rebounded from his KO loss to Roy Nelson with two knockouts of his own, and if he stays away from a Gonzaga power shot it is likely he will get his third. Forget about both fighters’ ground work…this fight isn’t going there. If you’re betting on Schaub, get your bet in soon; his odds are getting worse by the day!

Ryan Jensen – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)

What exactly has Court McGee done to be a -260 favorite against a UFC vet like Ryan Jensen? McGee looked good in his first UFC fight against Kris McCray, and looked improved in his later appearances on The Ultimate Fighter. However, it should also be noted that McGee barely got into the house in the first place and lost his first TUF fight.

McGee is a wrestler with decent stand up and a penchant for the guillotine and rear naked choke. Jensen’s Team Jackson training should go a long way to keep him from those chokes. I think these two fighters are pretty evenly matched, and the fact that you can get Jensen at +200 is good for MMA bettors.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Lesnar/TKO/2

Shields/UD

Thiago/SD

Hamill/UD

Schaub/KO/1

Jensen/SD

Cote/TKO/2

Stout/UD

Roberts/UD

Camozzi/SUB/1

Madsen/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Lesnar – 2 u. on BetUS

Schaub – .5 u. at +135 on Bodog

Jensen – .25 u. at +200 on BetUS

Stout – 1 u. at -170 on Sportsbook

Madsen – 1.5 u. at -200 on Sportsbook

WEC 51 Predictions

WEC 51 – Aldo VS. Gamburyan takes place tonight, September 30th in Broomfield, Colorado. WEC 51 is looking like one of the most stacked WEC cards in history, with four current or former WEC champions competing in addition to fan favorites like Leonard Garcia, Chan Sung Jung, Antonio Banuelos, and Charlie Valencia. The main event will feature the #1 Featherweight in the world, and WEC Featherweight champion, Jose Aldo taking on former UFC competitor and TUF alum Manny Gamburyan. The co-main event features arguably the most desired rematch in MMA history, as hated rivals Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone square off to settle the controversial ending to their first match up.

There are several solid betting opportunities on this card. In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith and I will be giving our best bets for this weekend’s WEC event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the WEC 51 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and WEC 51 Pros’ Picks.

Jose Aldo – Mike Hammersmith -600 on Bodog)

Speed kills. That’s about all I need to say here, as the fastest Featherweight on Earth takes on a two-legged glacier in Manny Gamburyan. Aldo simply brings too much depth of skill in the striking department, and while we haven’t seen much of his matwork, what we have seen makes me think he’s not kidding when he talks about his BJJ being better than his stand-up. This leaves few outs in a five round match for the grinding style of Gamburyan, and unless he can bring one of those hammers to bear on Aldo, I see him getting torn apart standing for as long as this fight lasts. The payout may be meager at -600, but easy money is easy money, and I wouldn’t pass up a hearty bet here.

Miguel Torres – Mike Hammersmith -430 on Bookmaker)

Miguel Torres will look to reestablish himself in the division he once dominated, and having lost two in a row, finds himself against the well-rounded Charlie Valencia in a tune-up fight before bigger and better things. While Valencia is a decent all-around fighter, he’s fighting the king of all-around fighters in Torres, who’s equal parts murderous ground game and murderous stand-up game, with some murderous clinch game to smooth out those transitions. Valencia just doesn’t have anything to offer Torres, and while the odds aren’t fantastic at -430, this makes for a great match-up to parlay with the above Aldo vs. Gamburyan, or just as a way of gaining some low risk scratch.

Tyler Toner – Mike Hammersmith (+160 on Bookmaker)

Another great stand-up bout shuffled to the undercard, well-rounded fighter Diego Nunes will fight one of the biggest surprises in the WEC in Tyler Toner. Having fought nearly blind for his entire career, Toner was forced to get corrective surgery before his bout with tough Hawaiian Brandon “The Viper” Visher, and came into the fight with an ability that had been locked away by his handicap. Executing some of the best functional striking I’ve seen in recent years, Toner destroyed the heavy favorite in Visher and is poised to move into fringe contendership if he can make it past Nunes. Not to be outdone, Nunes showed he has some surprises as well in his last outing; hustling Rafael Assuncao with a combination of outside striking and takedowns that saw him to a split decision win.

This is a very important fight for both men, as it’ll land the winner deep inside the Featherweight division, and how this plays out really depends on how Nunes approaches it. If Nunes chooses to stand with Toner, I don’t think he’ll be able to avoid the multiple-angled attacks from the American, and may find himself on the wrong end of a vicious knockout. Nunes path to victory is therefore by takedowns, but Toner’s takedown defense and bottom game make that a dicey proposition as well.

In a 50/50 fight, Toner has the conditioning and KO power to hurt Nunes badly in this match, but Nunes takedowns and standing ability can save him here if he’s smart about it. While this is far from sure money, Toner comes in as a surprisingly heavy underdog at +160 and makes for a great pay out on a coin-flip bet.

Jamie Varner – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on SportBet)

I simply do not see this fight happening any differently than their first fight. Neither fighter has really improved, although both Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone didn’t exactly have a ton of room for improvement. Both fighters are going to bring their usual bread and butter to tonight’s fight: Varner’s effective wrestling and exceptional boxing versus Cerrone’s dangerous guard game and dynamic Muay Thai. Both fighters are seasoned and tough, so neither Varner or Cerrone have the edge there.

Varner’s take downs and ground and pound did wonders in the first fight, and it should be no different here. Look for Varner to set up take downs with his hands and punish Cerrone while in his guard. Varner is tough to finish, so he is not going to be as susceptible as most to Cerrone’s attacking guard. Although Cerrone has the tools to beat anyone in the Lightweight division, Varner has the edge here and is a good bet at his current odds.

Charlie Valencia – MMAMoneyLine (+350 on SportBet)

I differ with my counterpart here. Miguel Torres, coming off of two sound defeats, is a gigantic favorite over Charlie Valencia. Simply put, that ain’t right. I think many people have their doubts about Torres still being the beast he was when he was running roughshod through the WEC Bantamweight division. I am one of those people.

Charlie Valencia is one of the more veteran guys in the WEC who has been in the cage with some very tough opponents. He won’t be threatened or intimidated by Torres. In addition, Valencia has the same characteristics of the two men who most recently defeated Torres, Joseph Benavidez and Brian Bowles.

Miguel Torres probably wins this fight more than he loses it, but I put him at about 60%. His current odds reflect him as winning this fight an astonishing 81% of the time. Those odds are clearly off, and a play on the underdog Valencia is the smart bet.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Aldo/KO/2

Varner/UD

Valencia/SD

Jung/TKO/3

Hominick/UD

Zhang/TKO/1

Brown/SUB/2

Ratcliff/TKO/2

Banuelos/UD

Johnson/UD

Toner/TKO/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Aldo/Brown/Hominick – 1 u. on BetUS

Varner – 1.5 u. at -145 on SportsBook

Valencia – .25 u. at +350 on BetUS

Zhang – 1.5 u. at -145 on BetUS

Toner – 1 u. at +160 on BetUS

UFC 119 Predictions

UFC 119 takes place Saturday, September 25th in Indianapolis. Because of an injury to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the main event stands as former UFC Heayweight champion Frank Mir versus former PRIDE Grand Prix winner Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic. The co-main event will feature two contending Light Heavyweights in Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ryan Bader. In […]

In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 119 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 119 Pros’ Picks.

Joe Doerksen – Mike Hammersmith (+260 on Bookmaker)

Sometimes with odds, I feel like bookies and bettors get a notion into their head and no matter how many times they’re proven wrong, they don’t quite want to see it. Such is the case with CB Dollaway, whom despite a world of potential and plenty of talent on the wrestling mat, hasn’t really lived up to the TUF 7 hype. Since then, Dollaway has spent the majority of his UFC career either tapping out, going to sleep, or arguing about whether or not he tapped out, and will be facing more of the same when he takes on the ridiculously undervalued Joe Doerksen. With well over fifty MMA bouts under his belt and with over thirty wins by submission, the BJJ black belt Doerksen is a difficult match for a wrestler, and especially considering he’s likely the better striker of the two fighters. With an initial line of +260 for Doerksen, I’m stunned to see this hasn’t moved at all since being released, and recommend a mid-sized bet on this one in a close fight which likely goes in favor of Doerksen.

Frank Mir – Mike Hammersmith -240 on Sportsbook)

Somewhat of and old-school MMA dream match, Frank Mir and Mirko Cro-cop will finally collide inside the UFC cage, and makes for an excellent main event to the card. In looking at this fight, I’m really stunned by the comparative rate of progression, as Frank Mir has completely transformed himself in the last several years into a dynamic heavyweight, while Cro-cop remains a one-note kick-boxer. Mir comes into this fight as a huge favorite in my book, as he’s anything but foolish, and will have no problem coming up with and executing a game plan to dominate Cro-Cop. Short of a stunning KO, Mir will put this fight on the mat either from a shot or a clinch take down and Cro-Cop’s novice mat-work will do nothing to stop Mir from locking on a submission early in this one. Look for a quick take down and a quick kimura to put an end to this fight inside the first minute, making a strong bet at -240 a wise play.

Sean McCorkle – Mike Hammersmith +190 on Bodog)

Whether due to a rumored contractual issue, or just because the UFC felt like it, veteran kick boxer Mark Hunt finds himself inside the cage for a one-and-done affair, taking on hometown fighter Sean McCorkle. This fight is generating a lot of hype due to Hunt’s impressive “down-sizing”, going from roughly 300lbs, to looking like he could make Light Heavyweight for this one. A lot of times with fan favorites though, it’s important to look at the fighter with an honest eye, and doing so with Hunt reveals some ugly truths.

As much as it might upset some people to say, Mark Hunt was never a good fighter. While his ability to take a hit is legendary, walking through punches doesn’t do you any good if you can’t retaliate effectively, and Hunt’s KO power has been largely exaggerated over time. The fact of the matter is, Hunt hasn’t won a fight in over four years, and the one thing that could make him a difficulty here, that being his extreme low center of gravity, has apparently been trained off in the gym.

I would never call McCorkle a “hot prospect”, having watched his extensive YouTube collection, but looking at this honestly, I can’t see Hunt winning here. Being a 5’10″ Heavyweight hasn’t been a realistic ambition since UFC 6, and the fact McCorkle comes into this fight with nine inches of height and a true Heavyweight build makes this a foregone conclusion. McCorkle should have little trouble putting an undersized Hunt on the mat and imposing his will for a TKO stoppage late in the fight. While UFC newcomers are a risk to bet on, McCorkle coming in at +190 makes for a great payout on something that should be a foregone conclusion.

Melvin Guillard – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on SportBet)

Both Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens have really been stepping up their respective game as of late. With that being said, I do believe Guillard has always had better tools than Stephens and now arguably has better training at Jackson’s camp.

Both guys are strong, tough, and hit hard. I don’t expect much wrestling or many submission attempts in this fight (although it wouldn’t be a bad strategy for either fighter). While Guillard’s chin is far from granite, he has the power of a Welterweight. Guillard’s hand speed and aggression is going to be tough to deal with…a much different striker than Sam Stout. While Stephens does have the power to turn Melvin’s lights off, he is going to have to be on the defensive for the beginning of this fight. I expect Stephens to get clipped with a hard right then ground and pounded to a first round TKO loss.

Chris Lytle – MMAMoneyLine (-130 on SportBet)

This fight already happened in 2006, with Serra getting the nod in a split decision that could have went either way. Here we are 4 years later with the same two exciting fighters going at it again. I do think this fight will be Fight of the Night by the way.

I can’t shake the feeling of Lytle winning this fight easily. Chris Lytle is next to impossible to stop in a fight…his only stoppage losses in about 50 fights were TKOs from cuts. I don’t think Serra can stay out of danger for 15 minutes against a guy like Lytle. Chris Lytle is serious competition for anyone at Welterweight…and Serra doesn’t have what it takes to stop him. Lytle takes a unanimous decision victory here against a tough Matt Serra.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Mir/SUB/2

Bader/UD

Lytle/UD

Dunham/SUB/1

Guillard/TKO/1

Doerksen/SUB/2

Mitrione/SD

Grant/SUB/3

Tavares/UD

Hunt/KO/2

Lopez/UD

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Guillard 1 u. at -155 on SportBet

Lytle – 1 u. at -130 on SportBet

UFC Fight Night 22 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 22 happens tonight, September 15th in Austin, Texas. The main event features former Middleweight number 1 contender Nate “The Great” Marquardt facing off against the physically imposing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Rousimar Palhares. The main card also features UFC sophmore Charles Oliveria versus former TUF winner Efrain Escudero and another TUF […]

In my opinion, I don’t see many great value bets on this card. However, there is still money to be made for sharp bettors and keen researchers. As usual, myself and my friend Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will give our best bets for the upcoming event. I recommend checking out the latest UFC Fight Night 22 odds in addition to the UFC Fight Night 22 Pros’ Picks before placing any wagers. For you novice bettors out there, make sure to peruse MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Betting Guide before throwing your money down.

Ross Pearson – Mike Hammersmith (-260 on SportsBook)

TUF champions have a habit of transforming into real killers once they get the funding and recognition to excel in this sport, and Pearson is certainly on that track. Armed with an iron jaw, murderous inside boxing combinations, and a gas tank for days, it’ll take a very specific opponent to put a halt on his ascent in the division. Cole Miller, while a decent fighter in his own right, comes into this bout with possibly the worst skill-set one can have for dealing with Pearson, and may be the biggest dog on this card. Miller suffers from a suspect chin, a lack of real power in his strikes, and insufficient wrestling to get this fight on the mat, making for either a long night, or an abrupt end to this bout.

Pearson has the chin and standing defense to walk through anything Miller throws, and once he starts getting his timing down, it’ll be mere moments before the English bulldozer gets inside on Miller and lights him up. While the odds aren’t fantastic, taking Pearson at -260 makes for a great anchor bet for the night.

Rich Attonito – Mike Hammersmith +155 on SportBet)

An interesting fight featuring a TUF 11 fighter who was sidelined with injury, taking on a mid-level contender looking to move up. Attonito had a successful, although odd bout with Kyacey Uscola on TUF where he won via DQ, yet broke his hand and was forced out of the competition. Under the circumstances, he was given a chance to work his way into the UFC ranks, and did so in impressive fashion against no one’s favorite cast member Jamie Yager with a come-from-behind TKO victory. Rafael Natal, on the other hand, has worked his way through the regional circuits of Brazil and America, coming to the public eye on the Moosin PPV where he soundly defeated UFC veteran Travis Lutter with a harsh KO victory.

Generally when dealing with TUF fighters, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt in their training, as they tend to flourish once given a few sponsors and the opportunity for top-level training. With that in mind, this is a real toss-up fight, as both men are defensively weak standing, while having KO power, meaning this could end at any time. Surprisingly, Attonito has come in as a huge underdog in this fight at +155 and makes for the best dog bet on the card, in my opinion.

Efrain Escudero – MMAMoneyLine (-175 on Bodog)

Efrain Escudero loses a fight against Evan Dunham, who is looking more and more like a legitimate Lightweight title contender. Charles Oliveira wins a fight against a relatively unaccomplished Darren Elkins. Because of these two results, the line on this fight is far closer than it should be. Welcome to the world of MMA betting, a world where being able to identify the difference between losses against good competition and wins against poor competition can make you a good amount of money.

This is what Charles Oliveria is: one hell of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu player and a very hot prospect. Here is what Charles Oliveira isn’t: a decent striker, a quality wrestler, or a fighter who has faced quality competition. Efrain Escudero has already established himself in the biggest MMA promotion in the world with wins over Dan Lauzon and Cole Miller. Escudero has also played the role of “prospect derailer” in his win at the TUF 8 finale against over-hyped Phillipe Nover.

Oliveira certainly has the chops to hand Escudero his second straight submission loss, however he is going to have put a very dangerous Escudero in that position first. Escudero has better striking, better wrestling, and has an aggressive pace and ferocity that will be difficult for such an inexperienced fighter to deal with. Escudero was beating Dunham up until he got caught, and I expect a similar fight with a different result. Escudero controls all three rounds en route to an impressive unanimous decision victory.

Anthony Waldburger – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Bodog)

From where I sit, Anthony Waldburger and David Mitchell have many similarities. Waldburger has 10 submission wins, Mitchell has 9 submission wins. Waldburger has experience with serious competition like Pat Healy, Ricardo Funch, Pete Spratt, Josh Neer, and Brian Foster. Mitchell has fought tough mixed martial artists like Tim McKenzie, Poppies Martinez, and War Machine. Waldburger’s biggest weakness has been his chin, having 4 knockout losses. However, Mitchell has no KO wins on his record.

In a fight like this, you have to look at the odds. Mitchell is inexplicably a moderate favorite, while Waldburger is a +170 ‘dog. A bet on Waldburger is simple betting mathematics: he wins this fight about 50% of the time while the sports books are giving him a 37% chance. Taking advantage on edges like this can be more important that really thinking Waldburger will win more than he loses.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Marquardt/TKO/3

Escudero/UD

Tibau/SD

Pearson/TKO/2

Edwards/KO/1

Hamman/UD

Drwal/TKO/2

Natal/SUB/2

Waldburger/SUB/1

Foster/TKO/3

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Escudero 1 u. at -160 on Bodog

Waldburger – 1 u. at +170 on Sportsbook

Drwal – 1 u. at -170 on BetUS

UFC 118 Predictions

UFC 118 – Edgar VS. Penn II takes place this Saturday, August 28th, in “Bahstan”. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first event in the historic city, a rematch for the UFC Lightweight title will be contested between Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn. The number one contender for this title will also be determined by Kenny Florian versus Gray Maynard. The co-main event (arguably considered the main draw in public eyes) will feature a “boxing versus MMA” bout between respective former champions James Toney and Randy Couture.

In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 118 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 118 Pros’ Picks.

Greg Soto – Mike Hammersmith (+150 on SportBet)

In a potential sleeper fight of the night, New Jersey fighter Greg Soto will look to gain a foothold inside the UFC, coming off a disappointing DQ against Matt Riddle in his debut. A BJJ brown belt and top-notch wrestler in one of the most competitive districts in the state, Soto has done well for himself in the cage in his career, but will need to be sharp against TUF 9 veteran Nick Osipczak if he hopes to stick around in the UFC for long.

This is an interesting fight, and one where the line has been steadily moving due to a bit of MMath on the part of bettors, based on the fighter’s common opponent in Matt Riddle. While Soto was well on his way to a losing decision against the Welterweight workhorse, Osipczak easily bet Riddle in every round, and finally sealed the deal in the third with some brutal ground and pound. This comparison, for my two cents, is apples and oranges though, as Riddle is a clinch wrestling grinder and found himself eating rapid offense on the feet while trying to get his game working. If there’s a comparison to be made, it would be between Soto and Osipczak’s last opponent in Welterweight ox Rick Story, whose simple takedowns, top control and submission defense earned him a tough decision over Osipczak.

I wouldn’t normally recommend this fight, but considering it’s gone from even odds to Osipczak being a firm favorite, taking a small chance on Soto at +150 suddenly becomes a smart move. Look for Soto to work his magic on the mat, neatly avoid Osipczak’s submissions, and get the judge’s nod.

Dan Miller – Mike Hammersmith -265 on SportBet)

Not too many fighters have had as tough of a road in the UFC as Dan Miller, but with three loses in a row to top competition, the stage is set for him to take back his place at the top of the division. Miller is an interesting mix of wrestling and BJJ, and much like his brother Jim Miller, finds a way to meet force with slickness and slickness with force, having baited top-level wrestler Jake Rosholt into a quick tap guillotine, but also having muscled notoriously savvy grapplers Rob Kimmons and Matt Horwich by virtue of his wrestling talent and heavy top game.

His opponent is John Salter, who has the unenviable position of being a poor man’s Dan Miller, taking on Dan Miller. This is a fight Salter has practically no outs to win, being unable to stop Miller’s takedowns and submissions and not having the standing skills to do much in the face of a superior opponent. Additionally, the three losses in a row has seemed to scare book makers, as Miller at -265 is easily the best bet on the card, for my money.

Mario Miranda – Mike Hammersmith +205 on Bodog)

Coming off a complete demolition of David “The Crow” Loiseau in his last bout, Miranda has flown under the radar in the UFC, but has a chance to launch himself deep into the Middleweight ranks here. A multiple-time national champion in both Greco Roman and Freestyle wrestling, Miranda compliments his grappling savvy with a BJJ black belt and strong technical muay thai skills, all packed into a giant Middleweight frame.

While we all know Maia is a killer on the mat, we’ve also all seen what happens when he can’t put a fight on the mat on his own terms. Miranda presents a real problem here with his multi-faceted skill-set, considerable size advantage, as well as a long training camp, part of which was spent dummying as Chael Sonnen against Maia’s last foe, Anderson Silva. This is a 50/50 fight as to whether or not Maia can put this on the mat and do anything to Miranda, or if he’ll be stymied by the lengthy striking and smart takedown attack of Miranda, and Miranda makes for a good underdog pick at +205.

Kenny Florian – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on Bodog)

Kenny Florian, thus far always the bridesmaid and never the bride. The Massachusetts native has come a long way since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. For the last few years, Florian has been a stalwart in the elite class of UFC Lightweight. His Muay Thai and mental game has caught up to his technical BJJ abilities and lanky, MMA-friendly physique, making him an extremely dangerous fighter.

Florian will have a tough fight against pedigreed wrestler, improving boxer and decision machine Gray Maynard. How tough of a fight? Not as tough as most people think. Whenever a wrestler of Maynard’s level is involved, the possibility of a hard fought, grinding fight greatly increases.

However, Kenny Florian has several advantages in this fight. He’s fought several high quality wrestlers already including Takanori Gomi, Clay Guida, Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson. Against this foursome, he’s gone 3-1 with his only loss being to a bloodied and beaten Sherk. Maynard has never fought anyone like Florian; the closest comparison probably being Nate Diaz. In addition, I believe Maynard has too much confidence in his improved boxing. If he stands with Florian, he’s likely in serious trouble. Maynard elected to stand with Nate Diaz because of Diaz’s ground prowess, and I expect him to do the same against another high level BJJ practitioner.

In the end, Florian gets the better of Maynard in the striking and submission category. Maynard does have a distinct wrestling advantage, but that comes against a very good submission fighter. Plus, Maynard might not even use his wrestling as much as he should. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Kenny Florian only loses to the best, and Gray Maynard, although incredibly tough, is not the best. I’d have little problem throwing a unit on Florian at -155.

Nate Diaz – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Bodog)

Easily the best bet on the card. Everything about Marcus Davis says “I’m not going to stand a chance against Nate Diaz”. The well known “punches in bunches” boxing style of the Diaz boys poses a huge problem for a methodical striker like Davis. In addition, Davis will not find refuge on the mat against the Gracie black belt.

Davis is a big, strong, muscular Welterweight, while Diaz is a tall, skinny Lighweight. The problem is this is MMA, not weightlifting. The more muscle on your frame, the more oxygen your body needs. Diaz has some of the best cardio in MMA and I can easily see him taking Marcus into deep waters. One last nail in the coffin is that Marcus Davis, an ex-pro boxer, has a propensity to cut easily.

Diaz isn’t going to knock Marcus Davis out, but a cut stoppage, submission or definitive decision victory seems obvious. I’ll go with the cut in the 3rd. Nate Diaz is still a really good play at -200.

Nick Osipczak – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on BetUS)

I differ with Mr. Hammersmith on the Osipczak/Soto fight. When the odds came out, this line was even. I jumped on Osipczak immediately. In their common opponent, Matt Riddle, Nick Osipczak dominated for three rounds while Greg Soto was well on his way to a decision loss before an illegal upkick. Although Osipczak dropped a decision to Rick Story, most agree that the decision could have easily gone the other way. I also think Rick Story further established himself as a serious mixed martial artist with his beatdown on Dustin Hazelett.

Osipczak is the better fighter, in my opinion. Although he is billed as a striker and Soto a wrestler/BJJ player, Osipczak showed his mettle against a good wrestler. I see this fight playing out a lot like Osipczak/Riddle, with Slick Nick’s defense being too frustrating and offense too overwhelming. Hopefully you got Osipczak at better odds, but -155 on BetUS is certainly worth a unit.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Penn/SUB/2

Couture/SUB/1

Miranda/KO/2

Florian/UD

Diaz/UD

Lauzon/TKO/2

Lentz/UD

Miller/UD

Osipczak/SUB/2

Pierce/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Florian 1 u. at -125 on Sportsbook

Diaz – 1 u. at -180 on Sportsbook

Osipczak – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog