Predictable or not, UFC fans are still happy to open their wallets for the privilege of watching Georges St. Pierre thoroughly dominate his opponents for 25 minutes. According to a new report by Dave Meltzer, UFC 158 is expected to be one of the greatest pay-per-view showings of GSP’s career, with over 800,000 buys estimated. That figure would make UFC 158 the most-bought UFC event since last July’s UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II card (925,000 buys), and could put it slightly higher than 2011’s most-popular show — UFC 129 (“around 800,000 buys“), which was also headlined by Georges St. Pierre.
You can give some credit for Nick Diaz for hyping the fight in his own unique way, but St. Pierre remains the UFC’s most reliable PPV draw in the post-Lesnar era. Getting GSP to fight as often as possible would help turn the UFC’s downward-trending PPV momentum in a positive direction. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that will happen. According to St. Pierre’s trainer Firas Zahabi, GSP suffered an achilles injury before the fight, and will take some time off to rehab it; Zahabi said he didn’t want his star pupil to return to action for at least six months, though St. Pierre could return before then.
“He wants to take a couple of months off because his two fights were very close to each other and he wants to enjoy the summer,” Zahabi told TVA Sports. “We haven’t talked to the UFC yet, so we don’t know what their plans are for Georges yet.”
Get comfortable, Johny. You’re about to have some free time on your hands.
Predictable or not, UFC fans are still happy to open their wallets for the privilege of watching Georges St. Pierre thoroughly dominate his opponents for 25 minutes. According to a new report by Dave Meltzer, UFC 158 is expected to be one of the greatest pay-per-view showings of GSP’s career, with over 800,000 buys estimated. That figure would make UFC 158 the most-bought UFC event since last July’s UFC 148: Silva vs. Sonnen II card (925,000 buys), and could put it slightly higher than 2011′s most-popular show — UFC 129 (“around 800,000 buys“), which was also headlined by Georges St. Pierre.
You can give some credit for Nick Diaz for hyping the fight in his own unique way, but St. Pierre remains the UFC’s most reliable PPV draw in the post-Lesnar era. Getting GSP to fight as often as possible would help turn the UFC’s downward-trending PPV momentum in a positive direction. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like that will happen. According to St. Pierre’s trainer Firas Zahabi, GSP suffered an achilles injury before the fight, and will take some time off to rehab it; Zahabi said he didn’t want his star pupil to return to action for at least six months, though St. Pierre could return before then.
“He wants to take a couple of months off because his two fights were very close to each other and he wants to enjoy the summer,” Zahabi told TVA Sports. “We haven’t talked to the UFC yet, so we don’t know what their plans are for Georges yet.”
Get comfortable, Johny. You’re about to have some free time on your hands.
(“We will open the bidding for a UFC 149 pay-per-view purchase at $49.95. Do I hear $49.95? What if I said I’d thrown in this *authentic* jersey, completely free of charge? $49.95…anyone? OK, how about ten bucks?”)
Recently, after reading 12OzCurl’s article (well, just the opening paragraph) I came to a realization that the only reason why I’m here is because I’m Asian and Benny figures that must mean I’m good with numbers. So break out your abacuses…this shit is about to get real.
Today’s class? Variable pricing and whether or not this system should be adopted by the UFC in regards to the pricing of pay-per-view events. I’ll wait for everyone to decide whether or not to skip this article and go straight to the “Hot Potato” links.
Still with me? Probably not. But anyways, here we go.
For those that don’t know, Variable Pricing (or Dynamic Pricing as it is called) has been the main pricing strategies for airlines and hotels on how they price their own inventory. Recently, the San Francisco Giants adopted this form of pricing in order to better optimize ticket sales for their events. The strategy is similar to that used by the hotel and airline industry where prices go up and down depending on current market conditions and historical trends. Did it work? Hell yeah it did. By using sell-out history from past games based on opponents, starting pitchers, weather, day of the week, evening versus afternoon, and of course, current supply, the Giants were able to significantly increase their ticket sales revenue to such a degree that other franchises are looking to adopt similar methods to pricing their games.
(“We will open the bidding for a UFC 149 pay-per-view purchase at $49.95. Do I hear $49.95? What if I said I’d thrown in this *authentic* jersey, completely free of charge? $49.95…anyone? OK, how about ten bucks?”)
Recently, after reading 12OzCurl’s article (well, just the opening paragraph) I came to a realization that the only reason why I’m here is because I’m Asian and Benny figures that must mean I’m good with numbers. So break out your abacuses…this shit is about to get real.
Today’s class? Variable pricing and whether or not this system should be adopted by the UFC in regards to the pricing of pay-per-view events. I’ll wait for everyone to decide whether or not to skip this article and go straight to the “Hot Potato” links.
Still with me? Probably not. But anyways, here we go.
For those that don’t know, Variable Pricing (or Dynamic Pricing as it is called) has been the main pricing strategies for airlines and hotels on how they price their own inventory. Recently, the San Francisco Giants adopted this form of pricing in order to better optimize ticket sales for their events. The strategy is similar to that used by the hotel and airline industry where prices go up and down depending on current market conditions and historical trends. Did it work? Hell yeah it did. By using sell-out history from past games based on opponents, starting pitchers, weather, day of the week, evening versus afternoon, and of course, current supply, the Giants were able to significantly increase their ticket sales revenue to such a degree that other franchises are looking to adopt similar methods to pricing their games.
For the actual pricing of live events, this really doesn’t make any sense. The UFC really isn’t in the same spot on a regular basis for this type of pricing to make sense. Any city the UFC visits, it is considered a major event and will most likely sell out regardless of any other variables that may come into play. Since live events are constantly moving from one city to another, there is no localized sample of potential buyers to track buying trends in order to utilize a dynamic pricing strategy. However, this could be applied to pay-per-view pricing for events.
Before I go any further, here’s some numbers calculated from 2008-2012 that you may find interesting.
Average PPV Buy Rate = 526,470
Average PPV with Title Fight = 605,114 (+15% over average)
Average PPV with Non-Title Fight = 385,000 (-27% over average)
Average PPV Buy-Rate Featuring TUF Coaches = 940,000 (+79% over average)
Average PPV Buy Rate with Main Event Cards Affected by Injuries = 405,357 (-23% over average)
Average PPV Buy Rate Featuring Heavyweight Bout in Main/Co-Main Event = 748,182 (+42% over average)
(*List compiled based on fighters with a minimum of 4 or more appearances in the main or co-main event)
Whether you blame the injury curse of 2012 or the influx of UFC events over the course of the year, last year has seen a tremendous a decrease in pay-per-view buys. Since 2008, the UFC saw a steady increase in buys up to 2010 before dropping 27% in 2011. The following year, there was an additional 27% percent from 2011-2012. Overall, since 2008, where the total pay-per-view buys that year was over 9 million, the UFC has seen a 42% decrease in buys over the past 2 years.
Could there be an issue with supply and demand? Absolutely. In both 2008 and 2009 fans saw a total of 20 events (both free and pay-per-view) and 2010 had 24. In all three years, the ratio of PPV vs. free events was roughly 3:2. Flash forward to 2012, and you’ll see a total of 32 to events and the ratio of PPV to Free events shift to roughly a 2:3 ratio. Last year we saw a total of 18 free events compared to 14 pay-per-view events (it would have been 15 if it wasn’t for you know who not wanting to fight you know who and pissing off you know who…oh, how that seems like ancient history now). Still, the number of pay-per-view events last year was less than the number of free events. Why bother paying for an event, when there are plenty of other events being featured on free TV? Add in Bellator on Spike and the World Series of Fighting on NBC Sports and now the UFC has even more competition to deal with. You could also argue that the new deal with Fox may have resulted in the UFC cannibalizing themselves with all the events on Fox, FX, and FuelTV.
One thing the UFC has done right is airing international events on free TV and not on PPV. The numbers show that events not held in the North American continent are more likely to be 44% lower than the 5 year average. Those “marquee” events in Brazil, Japan, and Abu Dhabi? They also netted numbers below the PPV average.
There are a few things to note here (or “limitations” as we in the scholarly world like to say). All of these numbers are provided by the UFC and are rough estimates as opposed to actual numbers. That said, it’s safe to assume that these numbers, while just estimates, provide a good baseline for this study.
Could dynamic pricing work for PPV events? Possibly. Of course, there is the logistic nightmare of having to reprice events based on injuries that may occur leading up to the date. There’s also the perception that the UFC may be “cheapening” their image by pricing certain events lower than others. How this may affect certain fighter contracts that receive a percentage of the PPV buys is also something to take into consideration.
All things considered, should PPV events featuring non-title fights be priced the same as those that do feature a title fight? After all, in such cases where a title is on the line, more is at stake and could be considered a higher value compared to those where a title is not. Should Mir vs. Cro Cop be priced the same as Lesnar vs. Velasquez? Should the heavyweight main-event fights be priced higher than the lighter weight divisions? If Penn vs. Diaz was priced lower, would they have netted a buy-rate closer to the average? Would main-events featuring Frankie Edgar be better off priced at a discount rate compared to other events (you’re still my boy, Frank)? How will the new Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2 affect the current rate of free vs. PPV events for the UFC?
At the end of the day, the ultimate question will be what will the consumer be willing to pay for what event? In other words, would you be willing to pay more than $44.95 for GSP vs. Diaz this weekend? How much will you pay for UFC 161?
(And the song Ronda chose to accompany this momentous occasion with? Oh, you best believe it was some Geto Boys. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.)
Of all the controversy that was brought to light in the weeks following the announcement of UFC 157 (WOMEN HEADLINERS?!, Dan Henderson playing second fiddle to WOMEN HEADLINERS?!, etc.), one issue that seemed to cling around more than most was that of pay-per-view buys. Specifically, how the UFC honestly expected a card featuring WOMEN HEADLINERS to draw diddly squat for viewers in the male-dominated sport of MMA. Because if we wanted to see two broads fight over a leather and gold belt, we’d go to Macy’s on Black Friday, amiright?
Well, we hate to spoil the misogynist fantasy, but it looks like WMMA (or at least Ronda Rousey) could turn out to be a huge draw for the UFC. The Wrestling Observer’s Dave Meltzer spoke earlier today about the preliminary PPV estimates for UFC 157 and suffice it to say, they are a lot better than many of us would have predicted:
Over 400,000….they’re absolutely thrilled. The show, it was…they had predicted 250. Budgeted 250, I shouldn’t say predicted. But I mean, the predictions internally were 250-300. So they blew away their predictions, big time…They’re expecting big replay buys. Big replay buys means 25,000-30,000 more than they have right now. It could do mid fours, maybe more, but that’s a nice number to say.
(And the song Ronda chose to accompany this momentous occasion with? Oh, you best believe it was some Geto Boys. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.)
Of all the controversy that was brought to light in the weeks following the announcement of UFC 157 (WOMEN HEADLINERS?!, Dan Henderson playing second fiddle to WOMEN HEADLINERS?!, etc.), one issue that seemed to cling around more than most was that of pay-per-view buys. Specifically, how the UFC honestly expected a card featuring WOMEN HEADLINERS to draw diddly squat for viewers in the male-dominated sport of MMA. Because if we wanted to see two broads fight over a leather and gold belt, we’d go to Macy’s on Black Friday, amiright?
Well, we hate to spoil the misogynist fantasy, but it looks like WMMA (or at least Ronda Rousey) could turn out to be a huge draw for the UFC. The Wrestling Observer’s Dave Meltzer spoke earlier today about the preliminary PPV estimates for UFC 157 and suffice it to say, they are a lot better than many of us would have predicted:
Over 400,000….they’re absolutely thrilled. The show, it was…they had predicted 250. Budgeted 250, I shouldn’t say predicted. But I mean, the predictions internally were 250-300. So they blew away their predictions, big time…They’re expecting big replay buys. Big replay buys means 25,000-30,000 more than they have right now. It could do mid fours, maybe more, but that’s a nice number to say.
She’s making a lot of money fighting, I don’t know what those numbers are going to be when they come out when they’re released. But she’s making a ton of money. They signed her to a hell of a contract because they really did believe…not necessarily that she’d be this giant PPV draw, but in other ways she’d be incredibly valuable to the company. And so far she has turned out to be more valuable than they expected.
As noted by Adam Swift, depending on how strong the replay buys come back, UFC 157′s numbers should place the event 48th out of the 92 pay-per-views since 2006. When comparing the preliminary numbers to some of the UFC’s more recent PPV’s, it pales in comparison to the likes of UFC 155 (590,000) and UFC 154 (700,000), but falls right in the range of UFC 153 (410,000) and UFC 152 (450,000). So basically, squash match main events are always a solid bet in the land of the UFC. And they say the spirit of PRIDE is dead…
So now that Rousey is officially the best thing going for WMMA, should we expect to see her pop up in Fast 7 Furious 7: Electric Boogaloonext year?
Following his loss to Glover Teixeira at UFC on FOX 6 — allegedly his final performance in the Octagon — Quinton Jackson sat down with his old friend Karyn Bryant for a sprawling 44-minute interview about his relationship with the UFC and what he has planned for the future. The interview has become newsworthy for a couple reasons. For one, Jackson offers to drag his balls across Bryant’s face. It is what it is, I guess. No amount of bad publicity is going to stop Jackson from being weird with female reporters, and that’s not going to change no matter what he decides to do with the rest of his life.
The other interesting moment comes when Jackson starts opening up (or “complaining,” if you’re one of his haters) about the way the UFC reports its pay-per-view numbers to fighters. Many of the UFC’s marquee athletes earn a cut of PPV sales for the events they compete on, which makes it very important for those fighters to get an accurate assessment of what those numbers are. Unfortunately, the figures aren’t made public, so the fighters have to take their employer’s word for it — never an ideal situation when money is on the line. Here’s what ‘Page had to say (via MMMania):
Following his loss to Glover Teixeira at UFC on FOX 6 — allegedly his final performance in the Octagon — Quinton Jackson sat down with his old friend Karyn Bryant for a sprawling 44-minute interview about his relationship with the UFC and what he has planned for the future. The interview has become newsworthy for a couple reasons. For one, Jackson offers to drag his balls across Bryant’s face. It is what it is, I guess. No amount of bad publicity is going to stop Jackson from being weird with female reporters, and that’s not going to change no matter what he decides to do with the rest of his life.
The other interesting moment comes when Jackson starts opening up (or “complaining,” if you’re one of his haters) about the way the UFC reports its pay-per-view numbers to fighters. Many of the UFC’s marquee athletes earn a cut of PPV sales for the events they compete on, which makes it very important for those fighters to get an accurate assessment of what those numbers are. Unfortunately, the figures aren’t made public, so the fighters have to take their employer’s word for it — never an ideal situation when money is on the line. Here’s what ‘Page had to say (via MMMania):
“In my opinion, I feel like me and the rest of the UFC fighters are getting taken advantage of. I feel like the UFC is cleaning house. The pay-per-view dollars? They tell me one number, but then they tell the press another. Pay me the numbers that you tell the press! Don’t tell me, ‘Oh, we only sold this many,’ then you tell the press, ‘Oh we sold this many!’ But then I’m saying, ‘Hey, you only told me we sold 800,000 buys but you told the press you sold a million buys.’ Then they say ‘Oh, we just say that for the press.’ No, pay me what you told the press because you lyin’ somewhere. You either lyin’ to me or you lyin’ to the press about the pay-per-view numbers. If they’re doing it to me, I’m sure they’re doing it to other fighters.”
Well, this is an easy one: The UFC is lying to the press. If Dana White were to tell reporters that a big UFC fight did a million buys, and it was later proven somehow that the event did less than one million buys, it would be a minor embarrassment for the company that would be reported on MMA blogs for about two days. On the other hand, if the UFC mis-represented their pay-per-view numbers in order to short-change Anderson Silva on his PPV bonus and he found out about it, it would be grounds for an enormous lawsuit. Believe me, the UFC’s top brass aren’t stupid enough to ever try this.
What Jackson’s interview suggests is that the UFC occasionally exaggerates its PPV figures on the rare occasions when they actually do throw a number out to the press — something I already assumed they were doing. It also shows us that Jackson is willing to play out his public feud with the UFC to the bitter end, which might do him more harm than good in the long run. After all, how many fight promoters will want to work with a guy who has no qualms about putting their private business on the street if the relationship turns sour? Do you think Bjorn Rebney needs this kind of bullshit in his life?
(Being the ‘King of PPV’ has its perks. Photo via CombatLifestyle)
It is no wonder Dana White called Georges St. Pierre the “King of Pay Per View” (PPV) on a conference call tuesday. UFC 154, which featured the return of the welterweight champion, succesfully defending his title against interim champ Carlos Condit, did anywhere between 680,000 to 700,000 buys, according to Dave Meltzer.
Both UFC 148 and 145 were centered on intense and well-publicized rivalries. UFC 154’s success can likely be attributed more singularly to the personal popularity of the returning Georges St. Pierre. As Meltzer explains:
(Being the ‘King of PPV’ has its perks. Photo via CombatLifestyle)
It is no wonder Dana White called Georges St. Pierre the “King of Pay Per View” (PPV) on a conference call tuesday. UFC 154, which featured the return of the welterweight champion, succesfully defending his title against interim champ Carlos Condit, did anywhere between 680,000 to 700,000 buys, according to Dave Meltzer.
Both UFC 148 and 145 were centered on intense and well-publicized rivalries. UFC 154′s success can likely be attributed more singularly to the personal popularity of the returning Georges St. Pierre. As Meltzer explains:
“The company’s biggest event of 2012 is believed to have been UFC 148, headlined by Anderson Silva’s middleweight title defense over Chael Sonnen, that did an estimate of 925,000 buys, the company’s best showing since 2010. The latter two matches were the result of strong rivalries between two of the company’s biggest stars, whereas the Condit fight had no real grudge match aspect and Condit was not an established draw.”
St. Pierre’s last three fights did higher numbers, but were all either grudge matches (in the case of his rematch with Josh Koscheck and defense against Dan Hardy) or a part of an historic event that garnered intense media coverage (as was the case with his fight against Jake Shields, which took place at the UFC’s record-setting debut event in Toronto). Meanwhile, highly competitive fights between non-trash-talkers continue to get slept on when it comes to PPV buys — which says a lot about how important storylines are in this sport.
Check out Meltzer’s full column for more numbers and a look towards the possible match-ups in GSP’s future, and how those might look in business terms.
(We’re sorry, Stephan, but unless those things are actual guns, you’re getting your ass kicked tonight.)
In the days leading up to UFC 153, many of you (and by you, we mean the entire MMA Interwebz) had some less than favorable things to say about the pairing of Stephan Bonnar and Anderson Silva. As if the bookies hadn’t told us all we needed to know, the general consensus among fans seemed to be the evening’s main event was a “travesty, a sham, and a mockery” that “blasphemed the great sport of MMA” and was a “completely meaningless squash match” whose “insulting pairing” would be reflected in “the abysmal pay-per-view numbers it receives.” And those were the favorable comments.
But for every fifteen of you complaining, there were apparently five or more of you who were forced to stifle your true excitement over this matchup like a pedo at a tee-ball game, because if the early numbers are any indication, squash matches featuring unstoppable killing machines are the new superfights. According to several reports, the pay-per-view numbers for UFC 153 are in the range of 340,00 to 410,000 buys. These numbers not only exceeded expectation, but are not that far below September’s squash match of the month featuring Jon Jones and Vitor Belfort, which managed to clear over 450,000 buys despite having those little guys that no one cares about fighting in the night’s co-main event.
(We’re sorry, Stephan, but unless those things are actual guns, you’re getting your ass kicked tonight.)
In the days leading up to UFC 153, many of you (and by you, we mean the entire MMA Interwebz) had some less than favorable things to say about the pairing of Stephan Bonnar and Anderson Silva. As if the bookies hadn’t told us all we needed to know, the general consensus among fans seemed to be the evening’s main event was a “travesty, a sham, and a mockery” that “blasphemed the great sport of MMA” and was a “completely meaningless squash match” whose “insulting pairing” would be reflected in “the abysmal pay-per-view numbers it receives.” And those were the favorable comments.
But for every fifteen of you complaining, there were apparently five or more of you who were forced to stifle your true excitement over this matchup like a pedo at a tee-ball game, because if the early numbers are any indication, squash matches featuring unstoppable killing machines are the new superfights. According to several reports, the pay-per-view numbers for UFC 153 are in the range of 340,00 to 410,000 buys. These numbers not only exceeded expectation, but are not that far below September’s squash match of the month featuring Jon Jones and Vitor Belfort, which managed to clear over 450,000 buys despite having those little guys that no one cares about fighting in the night’s co-main event.
While the numbers for UFC 153 might not be that outstanding at a glance, first consider that aside from Anderson Silva, UFC 153 was essentially deprived of the kind of star power that casual fans are willing to fork over 50 dollars for, thanks in no small part to our friend the injurycurse. The co-main event featured Dave freaking Herman for Chrissakes. Jon Fitch was on the main card, you guys. Jon. Fitch. These are not factors that normally add up to UFC gold, yet thanks to the power of one genetically-enhanced cyborg from the future and the pure enthusiasm of Brazilian fans, UFC 153 managed to come out with better numbers than UFC 147 and 150 combined.
So although we may never get the Silva/Jones superfight we’ve always wanted, enough of us will keep tuning in for the mere opportunity to watch either one of them beat the shit out of a hapless opponent. Based on these numbers, we estimate that Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen will do upwards of 24 million buys, receive it’s own television spin-off, and return to theaters in stunning 3D in 2014. And the Ferris wheel keeps on a spinnin’.
No wonder Silva doesn’t want to fight Chris Weidman or Michael Bisping; their chances of not being completely embarrassed out there lie just outside the fan’s interest range. Andy knows that we want to see him keep his hands at his sides, evade then shuffle back to where his opponent just tried to hit him, and deliver one-shot knockouts at the drop of a hat or not see him at all. You know what your audience likes, Joe, now set up the Silva vs Kyle Maynard super-squash-match-extravaganza that we have all been begging for!
