Filed under: UFCFighter vs. Writer has been on a bit of a hiatus, which is what happens when you go from a country where you don’t speak the language and your cell phone doesn’t work to a Strikeforce event where the only fighters around are the ones on…
Fighter vs. Writer has been on a bit of a hiatus, which is what happens when you go from a country where you don’t speak the language and your cell phone doesn’t work to a Strikeforce event where the only fighters around are the ones on the card, but you don’t want to hear my excuses, do you?
All that matters is that we’re back this week with UFC middleweight and TUF 14 coach Michael Bisping, who graciously took time away from bickering with opposing coach ‘Mayhem’ Miller to go head to head with yours truly over the UFC 135 main card.
Bisping: Jackson via TKO. “Jon Jones is unbelievable and an incredible athlete and an incredible champ. He’s forging a fantastic career and he’s got what it takes to be a legend one day. That said, he’s fighting Rampage and this is going to be the best Rampage you’ve seen in a long time.” Fowlkes: Jones via TKO. With Jackson’s punching power, you can’t ever count him out. And yes, I think this is the most motivated and in-shape Rampage we’ve seen in a long while. But I still don’t think it’ll be enough. Jones is too quick, too long, and too dynamic. Jackson won’t get close enough to hurt him, and Jones will chop him down.
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck
Bisping: Koscheck via decision. Matt Hughes has been a great champion in the past and a great ambassador for the sport, but he’s coming to the end of his career. He hasn’t looked too great lately. He hasn’t looked like the Matt Hughes of old, and it pains me to say that because he’s a Hall of Famer. But I’ve got to go with Koscheck being younger, faster, stronger — probably a better wrestler as well.” Fowlkes: Koscheck via TKO. Honestly, I don’t see a single area where Hughes holds the advantage. Experience, maybe? But even there, Koscheck has enough that he’s not going to be beaten on sheer veteran savvy alone. I think he out-strikes, out-wrestles, and overpowers Hughes.
Bisping: Diaz via submission. “That’s a tough one. It could go a lot like the Nick Diaz-Gomi fight. I’ve got to go with Nate.” Fowlkes: Diaz via submission. I’d feel better about it if I didn’t think Diaz was inclined to stand and trade, thus giving Gomi more of a chance than he needs to. Even so, I think it eventually winds up on the floor, where Diaz is superior.
Bisping: Broughton via TKO. “He’s one of the toughest human beings walking this planet. He’s big, strong, and you wouldn’t know it from the look of him because he carries a little extra weight, but he’s a cardio machine. I see him wearing [Browne] down and finishing him in the later rounds.” Fowlkes: Browne via TKO. Every Englishman I’ve talked to this week (and between Bisping and Telegraph writer Gareth Davies, I’ve talked to two) tells me what a tough guy Broughton is. I don’t doubt them, but Browne is just so big and so powerful. I think he’ll keep Broughton at a distance and smash him.
Bisping: Hunt via KO. “I’m going with Mark Hunt because I know him. I don’t know too much about Ben Rothwell, but I know he’s had mixed results. I like Mark Hunt. I’m a big fan of his Pride days and K-1, so I’m rooting for him.” Fowlkes: Rothwell via submission. If Bisping can pick based purely on personal feelings, then so can I. I got to know Rothwell when we were both working for the IFL, and he’s one of the truly good people in this business. If he’s smart, he gets Hunt to the ground and takes advantage of his weak submissions defense.
Filed under: UFCIt’s been an interesting week in Denver, what with both UFC 135 main eventers chipping away at each other in their own unique ways. With the fight nearly upon us, I submit some thoughts, predictions, and questions for your consideration…
It’s been an interesting week in Denver, what with both UFC 135 main eventers chipping away at each other in their own unique ways. With the fight nearly upon us, I submit some thoughts, predictions, and questions for your consideration.
I. When did respect and humility become so important to “Rampage” Jackson? It must have been very, very recently, since I seem to recall him being less than respectful in the pre-fight exchanges with Rashad Evans. And remember Darrill “Titties” Schoonover, who Jackson bullied repeatedly during a coaching stint on TUF? Let’s go ask him how important respect is to Jackson. I get it, he’s feeling dissed by Jones and, possibly, the media and the oddsmakers. But as Jackson spent all week harping on Jones’ lack of respect, it was hard not to wonder when the challenger had decided to eschew bad breath jokes and personal insults in favor of treating everyone like he’d want to be treated. It must have been after he compared Jones to a monkey he saw at the zoo, just like his sudden love of humility must have come after he predicted that Jones would have to be woken up in the cage following Saturday’s fight. I guess when Jackson says fighters should show respect, he means they should show it to him.
II. And, while we’re on the subject, why can’t Jon Jones just admit that he thinks he’s pretty great? It’s not like anyone would blame him. Look at what he’s done. Just a few years after putting on the gloves for the first time he’s the UFC light heavyweight champion. A guy like that can be cocky. After all, it ain’t bragging if it’s true. The problem is, he’s trying very hard to present a certain hand-crafted, squeaky clean image to the fans, but they’re no longer buying it. He claims not to care what people think of him, but in reality it seems like few UFC champions care more. The claim that he’s somehow disrespected Jackson more than Jackson has disrespected him doesn’t hold up, but Jones certainly has a high opinion of his own skills, and he’s not the only one. If he’d just admit it, it couldn’t be used against him so effectively.
III. My God, this spying nonsense. With all this talk about secret espionage, how is it that there hasn’t been a single statuesque Russian woman involved? Or a dude with an eye patch? At least a spit bucket that is also a smoke bomb. Worst spy story ever.
IV. Matt Hughes says he hasn’t made a decision, but he definitely doesn’t sound like a guy who wants to retire soon. If he did, this would be a sensible fight to end on. His contract is coming up, he claims he doesn’t want to stick around into his forties, so why not call it now? My guess is, it’s because he’s hoping he’ll put out a win over Josh Koscheck and then he’ll be able to ride this train for at least one or two more fights. His wife wants him to quit. His boss doesn’t see what else he’d have to fight for. All signs are pointing toward retirement. The fact that Hughes is adamant about making no decision yet — just as he is adamant that the outcome of this fight doesn’t really matter — tells you that he desperately wants to stay in the UFC just a little while longer. If Koscheck puts a beatdown on him (and I suspect he will), the case for a continued Hughes run is going to be hard to make.
V. If Travis Browne can put his size to work, Rob Broughton could be in for a rough night. Seeing those two heavyweights near each other in the gym on Thursday, it became very apparent that Broughton’s biggest challenge will be getting in close. He’d probably like to put Browne on the mat, but at 6’7″ Browne is a lot of humanity to try and forcibly relocate. If he keeps Broughton at a distance, this should be Browne’s fight to lose.
VI. Will Nate Diaz opt to stand and bang against an opponent who excels at that (and, at this point, little else)? If you’re Takanori Gomi, you probably hope so. The Japanese import has not been so stellar on the ground lately, and he did get submitted by Diaz’s older brother (who then got submitted by the NSAC’s drug testing procedures, but whatever). But if Diaz comes out looking to box, he gives Gomi more of a chance than he needs to. Gomi still hits hard (just ask Tyson Griffin) and he’s always gotten high marks in the brawlability category. That doesn’t mean Diaz can’t beat him on the feet, but why risk it if you don’t have to? Maybe just because you’re a Diaz, and that’s what Diazes do.
VII. Ben Rothwell is a brand new fighter…again. I like Rothwell as a person, and I see what he’s trying to say, but what is this, like the third time he’s declared himself to be a new man? He’s been gone for a bit with injuries, so this time maybe it’s more true than ever, but how different is he really going to be? What, he’s lost some weight? He’s quicker? He’s a jiu-jitsu master who pulls guard now? Okay, the last one would be a significant change, but odds are he’s going to be more or less the same fighter, just an updated version. Again, nothing wrong with that. But you don’t get to be born anew before every fight. Especially not when you’ve been in this sport for ten freaking years.
VIII. The “media notes” the UFC has started handing out recently are, well, interesting. There’s some good information in the ten-plus pages of handouts. If you don’t live and breathe this sport (looking at you, local newspaper writer who probably won’t even show up until the main event), it catches you up on ‘spygate’ and on Hughes’ record of 18 UFC wins. But it also feels like some information is tossed in there just to fill white space. For instance, did you know Rothwell has “a technical degree in collision repair” from Waukesha County Technical College? Or that Hughes has an associate of arts degree from Lincoln Community College? I’m not sure what the UFC expects us to do with that information, but hey, the more you know, I guess.
IX. It’s a little weird to see Josh Koscheck being this nice. We’ve seen flashes of the old Kos this week, but the barbs have been few and not even all that prickly. When he said Hughes was in for a bad night, he seemed to actually feel a little bit bad about it. It’s as if he doesn’t want to beat Hughes up (or at least, not as much as he usual), but simply has no choice. Then again, he’s as fierce a competitor as Hughes is, he reminded us. It doesn’t matter if he’s fighting a former world champ or “a 12-year-old kid,” he wants to win. Who knew he could do it with such a congenial attitude? Well, congenial for him, anyway.
(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)
UFC 135 goes down tomorrow night in Denver, and as always, it’s incredibly important that you hear our opinions about it. Fresh off his controversial split-decision victory over Seth Falvo, CagePotato staff writer Jared Jones returns for another head-to-head column against founding editor Ben Goldstein. Can Rampage pull off an upset? Is Matt Hughes on his way to retirement? Whose new screen-name will be more humiliating? Read on and get yourself educated…
Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?
JJ: There will always be a small part of me that wants to see Page with a belt again, if only so I never have to watch that same clip of Rampage exclaiming just how much he wants it back in every pre-fight commercial he’s been in since losing it. On the other hand, I fear for the lives of Southern California if he does win the belt and then loses it again.
As far as the likelihood of Page being the champ again, I’d say it’s better than those bookies would have you believe, but not much. Let’s face it, Rampage earned this title shot with a razor thin decision over Lyoto Machida and an unimpressive decision over a now retired Matt Hamill. Yes, he seems incredibly focused and in shape and yes, Bones’ chin has yet to be tested, but Jones is simply too quick, diverse, and smart to get caught by a straight boxer like Rampage.
BG: First off, no, I don’t want to see Rampage get his belt back. Not even a little. Dude gives me a headache sometimes. Like Nick Diaz, he’s a paranoid weirdo with a persecution complex — everybody’s cocky, everybody’s fake. Look, if you’re one of the hordes of eCritics that have emerged since Jones beat up Shogun, I’m sure you have your reasons. But to me, Jon Jones represents the latest step in MMA’s evolution, and it would feel like a regression if he were unseated by a guy who pretty much just throws hands these days.
The odds on this fight are so inflated because as loud as Rampage’s supporters can be sometimes, nobody’s actually betting money on him. Why would they? Jones has an 11.5-inch reach advantage, he’s far more athletic, and he’s unpredictable. Bones might beat up Rampage standing just to prove a point. After Saturday, we can stop calling Jones the “future of MMA.” He’ll officially be the present — a defending champion. Now what will that make Rampage?
(Simon Cowell said they sucked. L.A. Reid said they sucked. Nicole Scherzinger said they sucked. Paula Abdul said they should keep practicing and never give up their dreams. / Props: jessektabor2)
UFC 135 goes down tomorrow night in Denver, and as always, it’s incredibly important that you hear our opinions about it. Fresh off his controversial split-decision victory over Seth Falvo, CagePotato staff writer Jared Jones returns for another head-to-head column against founding editor Ben Goldstein. Can Rampage pull off an upset? Is Matt Hughes on his way to retirement? Whose new screen-name will be more humiliating? Read on and get yourself educated…
Is there a part of you that wants to see Rampage get his belt back? How likely is that to happen?
JJ: There will always be a small part of me that wants to see Page with a belt again, if only so I never have to watch that same clip of Rampage exclaiming just how much he wants it back in every pre-fight commercial he’s been in since losing it. On the other hand, I fear for the lives of Southern California if he does win the belt and then loses it again.
As far as the likelihood of Page being the champ again, I’d say it’s better than those bookies would have you believe, but not much. Let’s face it, Rampage earned this title shot with a razor thin decision over Lyoto Machida and an unimpressive decision over a now retired Matt Hamill. Yes, he seems incredibly focused and in shape and yes, Bones’ chin has yet to be tested, but Jones is simply too quick, diverse, and smart to get caught by a straight boxer like Rampage.
BG: First off, no, I don’t want to see Rampage get his belt back. Not even a little. Dude gives me a headache sometimes. Like Nick Diaz, he’s a paranoid weirdo with a persecution complex — everybody’s cocky, everybody’s fake. Look, if you’re one of the hordes of eCritics that have emerged since Jones beat up Shogun, I’m sure you have your reasons. But to me, Jon Jones represents the latest step in MMA’s evolution, and it would feel like a regression if he were unseated by a guy who pretty much just throws hands these days.
The odds on this fight are so inflated because as loud as Rampage’s supporters can be sometimes, nobody’s actually betting money on him. Why would they? Jones has an 11.5-inch reach advantage, he’s far more athletic, and he’s unpredictable. Bones might beat up Rampage standing just to prove a point. After Saturday, we can stop calling Jones the “future of MMA.” He’ll officially be the present — a defending champion. Now what will that make Rampage?
Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass, right? I mean, that’s not really a question, so…how do you feel about the fact that Josh Koscheck is going to kick Matt Hughes’s ass?
BG: I mean, I don’t feel sad about it if that’s what you’re asking. Between his two welterweight title reigns and induction into the UFC Hall of Fame, Hughes has accomplished all there is to accomplish in this sport. I don’t think another championship belt is in his future, and I don’t really need to see him spend a couple more years knocking around against other contenders. His wife is ready for him to come home. Come home, Matt.
As for tomorrow’s fight, Koscheck has the striking advantage and Hughes won’t be able to put him on his back with any consistency. Kos by late TKO, followed by an emotional in-cage retirement from Hughes, as the crowd solemnly sings “A Country Boy Can Survive” in unison.
JJ: Ben, you ignorant slut. Weren’t we all saying the same thing about Ricardo Almeida just a little while ago? Matt Hughes may be coming off one of the most embarrassing (not to mention fastest) losses of his career, but this ain’t gunna be no walk in the park for Fraggle Rock. Koscheck’s striking has been overrated praised ever since his brutal finish of Yoshiyuki Yoshida, but was all but useless against GSP. Is Hughes as good on the feet as GSP? Hell no, but his wrestling is better than Koschecks, and if, no, WHEN he eeks out a boring decision over Koscheck, I’ll be dancing my cares away with all that extra bread.
Does the loser of Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi deserve to keep their spot in the UFC?
JJ: If this was a just world, I would say no. But Michael Bay still finds work, so it clearly isn’t, and as long as these guys WAR!!! then who the hell knows what’s going to happen. Diaz has only won three of his past eight fights, his wrestling sucks, and he isn’t anywhere near anyone’s top 10, or 20 for that matter. If Gomi loses, it’ll probably be by submission, and as much as it pains me to see him off, he would need a few wins elsewhere and an improved ground game if he wants back in the UFC. But I am really hoping he is able to turn Diaz’s lights out, if only to know that is possible for Christ’s sake.
BG: I agree that the loser should have to get a couple tune-up wins outside of the UFC, but I’ll put it like this — Gomi’s job is safe and Nate’s isn’t. Even if Gomi gets boxed up and gogo’d in the first round, the UFC will still keep him around for their upcoming Japan show, guaranteed. As for Diaz? He got bounced out of the lightweight division, then bounced out of the welterweight division, and now he’s back at lightweight. Another bad loss, and it would be clear that there’s really no place for him. Plus, don’t you think Dana wants to stick it to the Diaz family after that shit Nick pulled? King Pinkberry never forgets.
JJ:First, hand me that old bucket filled with bum sperm!! Seriously though, I would say the easiest way would be to bet it all on Page or Hughes, who are the most attractive underdogs, but I’m a man of variety. Despite getting swarmbashed (new term, called it) by a fever ridden Kyle Kingsbury recently, Ricardo Romero looks decent at +140 against the submission susceptible James Te Huna, and if “Big” Ben Rothwell decides to trade strikes with Hunt, then it could be an early night for him…
Screw it, I’m gunna go ahead and drop half of that C-note on a Boetsch-Ferguson-Romero parlay and the other half on a Hughes-Page-Rothwell parlay. Let’s just hope my bookie is more forgiving than last time.
BG: Wow, Hughes and Jackson in the same parlay? How much is Bodog paying you to write this garbage? Learn from my mistakes, Jared — doubling up on parlays is the quickest way to heartbreak. During my years of giving terrible gambling advice, I think I’ve matured enough to learn a valuable lesson: There are some events where you simply can’t make a huge profit, so don’t even try. And let’s face it, these UFC 135 odds are a total nightmare, filled with blowouts where you can’t justify putting money on the favorite or the underdog. But if I have to, I’ll put $30 on Jon Jones, $30 on Travis Browne, $30 on Tony Ferguson, and $10 on Gomi for the upset. According to BetUS, that would give me a potential profit of $42.02. Yuck. Moving on…
Screen-name bet time: Make one specific prediction for a fight at UFC 135. The person who makes the more accurate prediction gets to change the other person’s commenter name to something embarrassing for a week.
JJ: Nate Diaz will give the old “Stockton Heybuddy” about a minute before finishing Takanori Gomi with a guillotine. Is that too obvious? Either way, enjoy being Bisping’sgaysecret for a week.
BG: Jon Jones TKO’s Quinton Jackson via ground-and-pound (elbows), midway through round 2. Enjoy it, AmberFromTeenMom.
Want to make sure cash this Saturday betting on UFC 135? One word of advice — you won’t get rich betting on Jon Jones. According to the latest gambling lines, Jones is a 5-1 favorite or greater against Quinton Jackson on all the major betting websites. BetUS and Sportsbook.ag have him at 6-1, and Bodog is crazy enough to set the line at an alarming 7-1.
When the odds were first released four months ago, Jones was around a 3-1 favorite, but the vast majority of wagers have poured in on the young light-heavyweight champion since then, inflating the line astronomically. It’s a classic economic bubble — unsteady, unprofitable, and worth staying away from. The good news is, if you think Rampage has a chance to get his belt back, now’s your time to jump; a $100 bet would return a profit of $350-$450, depending on where you lay your money.
To be honest, every single fight on UFC 135’s main card is a blowout, in terms of gambling lines. The closest match is Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi, and even there, Diaz is more than a 2-1 favorite — which might make Gomi the smartest ‘dog wager on the card. Check out the lines after the jump and let us know what you think.
Want to make sure cash this Saturday betting on UFC 135? One word of advice — you won’t get rich betting on Jon Jones. According to the latest gambling lines, Jones is a 5-1 favorite or greater against Quinton Jackson on all the major betting websites. BetUS and Sportsbook.ag have him at 6-1, and Bodog is crazy enough to set the line at an alarming 7-1.
When the odds were first released four months ago, Jones was around a 3-1 favorite, but the vast majority of wagers have poured in on the young light-heavyweight champion since then, inflating the line astronomically. It’s a classic economic bubble — unsteady, unprofitable, and worth staying away from. The good news is, if you think Rampage has a chance to get his belt back, now’s your time to jump; a $100 bet would return a profit of $350-$450, depending on where you lay your money.
To be honest, every single fight on UFC 135′s main card is a blowout, in terms of gambling lines. The closest match is Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi, and even there, Diaz is more than a 2-1 favorite — which might make Gomi the smartest ‘dog wager on the card. Check out the lines after the jump and let us know what you think.
Main Card
Jon Jones (-500) vs. Quinton Jackson (+450)
Nate Diaz (-234) vs. Takanori Gomi (+220)
Travis Browne (-340) vs. Rob Broughton (+310)
Josh Koscheck (-450) vs. Matt Hughes (+400)
Ben Rothwell (-300) vs. Mark Hunt (+286)
Preliminary Card
James Te Huna (-150) vs. Ricardo Romero (+142)
Tony Ferguson (-300) vs. Aaron Riley (+283)
Tim Boetsch (-150) vs. Nick Ring (+147)
Eddie Yagin (-105) vs. Junior Assuncao (even)
Takeya Mizugaki (-190) vs. Cole Escovedo (+185)
Filed under: UFCThe main eventers have worked out their issues with Dr. Phil and the guys lower down the card have had a chance to discuss what their fights ultimately mean, so I suppose it’s time to turn to the betting experts to find out how they see…
Based on all the pre-fight hype, you wouldn’t know this main event is, at least according to oddsmakers, a bit of a squash match. And yet, these are the people who get paid to handicap fights, and this is actually one of the more reasonable lines out there. Some have Jones as high as 7-1. Can so many professional gamblers be wrong?
Well, sure they could. Especially with a fighter who’s as young and untested as Jones. He’s dominated every opponent so thoroughly that it’s hard to imagine a plodding, predictable striker like Jackson surprising him with anything new. If I had to guess, I’d say Jones is thinking the same thing right now. If he goes into this fight thinking that Jackson has nothing for him, he could end up learning a painful lesson about respecting his elders. Punching power is the last desperate hope of many an aging fighter, and it’s been Jackson’s saving grace a time or two in the past. His best chance is to catch Jones slipping and rock him with one hard shot. Then again, no one’s been able to do it yet. My pick: Jones. The betting line is clearly insane, but money ventured on Jackson is money you need to be prepared to never see again. He needs to get in close and hook in order to have a chance. I fear the closest he’ll get to Jones is during the pre-fight staredown.
I love an underdog pick as much as anyone (see also: my regrettable decision to pick Jason MacDonald last week), but I don’t see how Hughes has much of a chance here. What, does he outwrestle the bigger, stronger Koscheck? Nope. Does he floor him with his polished striking? Probably not. Does he submit him off his back? C’mon son. Hughes holds no obvious advantages over a guy like Koscheck, with the possible exception that he’s been in pre-fight training mode a little longer. But even though Koscheck took this fight on short notice, both men have had comparable layoffs, and both had to deal with a new opponent three weeks out. Maybe Hughes can come right out and put some leather on Koscheck’s surgically-repaired eye, but Country Breakfast wasn’t known for his stellar hand speed even in his prime, and he’s a long way from that now. My pick: Koscheck. Again, atrocious odds, but fitting ones. We’d probably have more fun betting on whether this will be Hughes’ retirement fight. I got a sawbuck that says it is.
Browne is now in his fourth UFC fight, and so far the most vulnerable we’ve seen him look was when Cheick Kongo pressed him up against the fence and clung to his shorts en route to a yawn-worthy draw. Maybe that was the smart way to play it, since as Stefan Struve found out back in May, this big man can swat. That could be why oddsmakers aren’t so hot on Broughton’s chances. He’ll be giving up about four inches in height to the 6’7″ Browne, and the Brit has yet to beat any really impressive heavyweights (no offense to James Thompson and Butterbean, both of whom have losses against Broughton). His best chance might be to get Browne to the mat, where his size and reach won’t be such a problem. That’s easier said than done against this behemoth. My pick: Browne. With all these huge favorites in my parlay, I’m going to have to find a crazier-than-usual underdog pick soon…
After being overpowered at welterweight, Diaz is back in the division where he’s had the most success and is taking on one of his brother’s former foes. It seems like a match-up that’s made for Diaz. Here he has a submittable opponent who probably won’t try to out-wrestle him. All he has to do is not get knocked out. That shouldn’t be so hard, since both Diaz boys seem to have been born with iron chins. It’s a good thing, too, what with their willingness to stand there and let people test their fists on them. My pick: Diaz. I know, another favorite. Sorry, but I just don’t see Gomi winning too many fights these days that he can’t end with a single punch.
If you’re looking for a big underdog who’s worth a risk, it’s now or never. Hunt has almost zero ground game. We know this — and when I say ‘we,’ I’m including Rothwell. The smart thing to do would be for Rothwell to get it to the mat as early as possible and hope that Hunt still hasn’t learned even the basics when it comes to submission defense. And honestly, I think that’s probably what will happen. But there’s always that chance, however remote, that Hunt lands one good punch and changes everything. Every round does start on the feet, after all. And — who knows — maybe after 15 months away from the scene Rothwell thinks he has to prove something by coming in there and knocking Hunt out. It would be a bad idea, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the question. My pick: Hunt. Man, I do not feel good about that. If Rothwell plays it smart, I think he submits him in the first round. But all that time off, plus Hunt’s heavy hands, multiplied by my need to find a crazy underdog, equals small action on Hunt.
Quick Picks:
– Nick Ring (+120) over Tim Boetsch (-150). Call me crazy, but I don’t think Boetsch will be able to run his usual wrestling schtick here. And when that doesn’t work, he’s all out of ideas.
– James Te Huna (-155) over Ricardo Romero (+125). Te Huna’s just a little bigger and more aggressive, plus he needs this more.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Jones + Koscheck + Browne + Diaz. It’s not sexy, but at least it’s secure.
Filed under: UFCWill Jon Jones successfully defend his light heavyweight title for the first time, or will Rampage Jackson get the belt back? Can Matt Hughes show he still has something left, or will Josh Koscheck send Hughes another step closer to ret…
Will Jon Jones successfully defend his light heavyweight title for the first time, or will Rampage Jackson get the belt back? Can Matt Hughes show he still has something left, or will Josh Koscheck send Hughes another step closer to retirement? Will the unbeaten Travis Browne take another step forward in the UFC heavyweight division?
We’ll answer those questions and more as we predict the winners at UFC 135.
What: UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage
When: Saturday, the preliminary card starts at 6 p.m. ET, the Spike TV fights start at 8 and the pay-per-view starts at 9.
Where: Pepsi Center, Denver
Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights below.
Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson The UFC light heavyweight title has been a hot potato since Rampage took it from Chuck Liddell in 2007. Rampage defended it successfully only once before losing it to Forrest Griffin. Griffin lost his first title defense to Rashad Evans. Evans lost his first title defense to Lyoto Machida. Machida barely beat Shogun Rua in his first title defense before losing the belt to Shogun in a rematch. And Shogun lost his first title defense to Jones.
But many UFC fans think Jones will be the one who finally goes on a long run as light heavyweight champion, the way Liddell did before Rampage beat him. Jones has the whole package as a mixed martial artist, and he’s just 24 years old and still getting better. He could easily be the champion for years.
So does Rampage have a chance? I don’t think he has a very good one. At age 33, I don’t think Rampage is the same fighter he was in his 20s. He looks slower than the guy we saw beat Liddell twice, and he hasn’t shown much sign of his trademark punching power since knocking out Wanderlei Silva almost three years ago. I think Jones-Rampage looks a lot like Jones-Shogun, with Jones winning in dominant fashion. Pick: Jones
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck Both of these guys are coming off long layoffs, with Hughes returning for the first time since losing to B.J. Penn in November, and Koscheck returning for the first time since losing to Georges St. Pierre in December. The biggest question about this fight is how Hughes and Koscheck will recover from their long layoffs, and from their decisive losses the last time they stepped into the Octagon.
But what we do know is that Koscheck is four years younger than Hughes and closer to his fighting prime than Hughes, and I think that makes Koscheck more likely than Hughes to be ready to bounce back from his loss and be ready to go — even though Koscheck is the one who took this fight on short notice. Hughes is one of the all-time great UFC fighters, with an all-time record 18 wins inside the Octagon. But at this point in their careers, I think Koscheck is both a better wrestler and a better striker than Hughes, and I don’t see Hughes getting No. 19. Pick: Koscheck
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton Browne is coming off a great knockout of Stefan Struve in May, which improved his record to 11-0-1. He’s a big, powerful heavyweight who hasn’t yet shown that he can be a complete mixed martial artist but has shown that he can hit really, really hard.
Broughton hits hard, too, and he has a better ground game than Browne. But I don’t see Broughton being able to take this fight to the ground, and if they stand and trade punches, that’s exactly what Browne wants. Look for Browne to knock Broughton out. Pick: Browne
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi When Nate’s big brother Nick Diaz submitted Gomi in 2007, it was a major upset: Gomi was widely regarded as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world at the time. But that was a long time ago, and no one should be surprised when Nate Diaz submits Gomi. A loss here will drop Gomi to 1-3 in the UFC and serve as another reminder that the Gomi of the Pride years is gone for good. Pick: Diaz
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt
Speaking of guys from the Pride days who don’t have it anymore, it’s kind of amazing that Hunt — who has a career record below .500 and has lost six of his last seven — is actually in the UFC at all. Hunt still has punching power, as Chris Tuchscherer found out the hard way at UFC 127, but if Rothwell is completely recovered from the torn ACL that has kept him out since June of 2010, he should beat Hunt easily. Pick: Rothwell
Fighter vs. Writer has been on a bit of a hiatus, which is what happens when you go from a country where you don’t speak the language and your cell phone doesn’t work to a Strikeforce event where the only fighters around are the ones on the card, but you don’t want to hear my excuses, do you?
It’s been an interesting week in Denver, what with both 
The main eventers have 
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