Benson Henderson vs. Frankie Edgar
Because of Frankie Edgar’s willingness to give immediate rematches to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, he gets one against Ben Henderson despite the long list of potential opponents waiting for a title shot. But the first fight was entertaining enough that most fans are willing to tolerate the rest of the division being held hostage so that Edgar can get a second chance at Henderson.
We know who both of these fighters are at this point in their careers and the outcome of this fight will be determined solely on gameplan and execution. Neither fighter is significantly better than the other in any area and the key in fights like this is finding a way to create openings to score. This fight represents the future of MMA as two fighters who have high level skill sets in all areas fight for slight advantages through five close rounds. The only significant advantage gained by either fighter in the first fight was when Henderson landed an upkick at the end of the third round, which seems unlikely to be repeated. Both fighters have excellent striking with Edgar probably having a slight advantage in the boxing but Henderson having a slight advantage in the kicking game. Henderson also has the reach advantage but keeping Edgar on the outside has proved nearly impossible. Both are excellent wrestlers and frequently change levels to keep their opponents off balance. Once on the mat, both are capable of doing damage with ground and pound. But both are also excellent at getting back to their feet and neither fighter was able to maintain any significant ground control in the first fight.
This fight will likely play out similarly to the first fight with both fighters happy to engage on the feet but looking to mix in takedowns when the opportunity presents itself. Henderson proved to have a slight advantage in most positions in the first fight and one would expect that pattern to continue in this fight. Because of that, he comes in as a solid favorite at -210 with Edgar at +175. However, Henderson in no way dominated the first fight so a win for Edgar would not be a surprise. The first fight was won because Henderson took advantage of of a few small openings to outscore Edgar. If Edgar can tighten up those minor mistakes and instead create a few small openings of his own in this fight, he could easily reverse the outcome and regain his title. Whatever the outcome, this fight will be back and forth. Both fighters will win rounds and both will be successful at different points in the fight. The key will be whose execution is tighter and who was able to learn the most from the first fight. Henderson deserves to be the favorite but Edgar could easily walk away the champion. And if he does, the lightweight division will be even more convoluted than it already is.
Donald Cerrone vs. Melvin Guillard
If you’re an MMA fan, you’re excited about this fight. Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard are two of the most exciting fighters in the sport and only a glitch in the fabric of the universe could extinguish the fireworks these two are almost certain to light from the moment this fight begins.
Cerrone’s only loss since coming to the UFC was against Nate Diaz who is currently awaiting the winner of the headlining lightweight title fight between Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson. He followed that loss with a dominant decision victory over Jeremy Stephens. Cerrone was never challenged in that fight and appeared to be sparring with Stephens by the third round. He destroyed Stephens leg with kicks and seemed to finish every combination with a baseball bat to Stephens’ thigh. He’ll be able to use the same strategy against Guillard who will be at a similar reach disadvantage and is also not a threat to take Cerrone to the mat. Cerrone has a clear grappling advantage in this fight and Greg Jackson will certainly be imploring his fighter to put Guillard on his back and work for a submission. Whether or not Cerrone listens will likely depend on whether or not he feels threatened by Guillard’s power.
Guillard was on the brink of a title shot before losing back to back fights via first round submission to Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller. And his performance last month against Fabricio Camoes was not impressive. He earned a bizarre unanimous decision victory with all three judges scoring the fight 30-27 despite the fact that Camoes clearly won the second round and the third round was incredibly close. Regardless, he will look to build on whatever momentum he gained from that fight in this fight against Cerrone. Guillard’s game is largely based on the power in his hands. If he finds his opponent’s chin, he usually wins but if he doesn’t, he struggles. He will be at a significant reach disadvantage in this fight and will need to use speed and movement to find his way inside and land combinations. He is capable of doing it but it will require a level of execution he hasn’t shown since leaving Jackson MMA for the Blackzillions.
Cerrone comes in as a significant favorite at -350 with Guillard getting +290. This fight will likely play out similarly to Cerrone’s previous fight against Jeremy Stephens. He will use his reach to keep Guillard at distance and pick him apart with combinations that end with destructive leg kicks. If Guillard has success closing the distance, look for Cerrone to take him down and work his submission game. And if Cerrone is only interested in winning, that is the more intelligent strategy. But he’s never been interested in simply winning the fight so look for him to make it a kickboxing match unless he feels threatened. But either way, this is likely to be a great lead in for the main event.
Potential is a difficult thing to carry in mixed martial arts.