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UFC 165: Alexander Gustafsson Receives Slim Odds for Bout with Jon Jones

Jon Jones opening on BestFightOdds.com as a -800 favorite in his title bout against Alexander Gustafsson is likely to surprise few. Gustafsson opened at +500 (5-to-1 underdog) for the bout. Back in October, MMAJunkie.com reported Chael Sonnen’s initial…

Jon Jones opening on BestFightOdds.com as a -800 favorite in his title bout against Alexander Gustafsson is likely to surprise few.

Gustafsson opened at +500 (5-to-1 underdog) for the bout. Back in October, MMAJunkie.com reported Chael Sonnen’s initial odds at 4-to-1 for his bout with Jones. Coming in late as a replacement to face Jones, Vitor Belfort opened at just over 6-to-1, according to MMAWeekly.com.

Gustafsson‘s odds could have been worse. Still, the odds do not exhibit a vote of confidence from the bookies.

In the past, Gustafsson had been labeled one of the few challenges left for Jones in the division. That sentiment seems to have softened in recent months.

While Gustafsson has a solid fanbase, the majority of MMA enthusiasts are likely to side with the early odds. A short list of key factors work against Gustafsson and are the cause of his perceived slim chances.

“Mauler” has yet to push five rounds in his career. He has reached the final bell in three-round bouts only twice. A majority of his fights have finished within the opening round. Quick stoppages usually work in a fighter’s favor when it comes to odds, but Gustafsson‘s ability to keep up with Jones for 25 minutes is in question.

Fans and bookies alike are cooling on Gustafsson in part due to his most recent decision victories. His wins over Thiago Silva and Mauricio Rua were solid, but not spectacular.

It is no secret that it will take something more than a solid performance to beat Jones.

Finally, Gustafsson‘s one loss is hard to ignore. Phil Davis came into his bout with Gus possessing many of the same advantages Jones will have at UFC 165. Davis utilized his long reach to control the stand-up before easily controlling Gustafsson on the canvas. It is hard to imagine Jones will not use the same attributes and skills to snatch another victory.

There is plenty of time to see the odds change for Gustafsson. For now, he will have to swallow any pride he had coming into the bout and simply look to shock a majority of the MMA world as a solid long shot.

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Gamblers Beware: Jon Jones Opens as an 8-to-1 Favorite (!!) Over Alexander Gustafsson

(And you can take that to the bank! Photo via Getty Images.)

How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?

Yesterday, it was announced that Jon Jones will meet his next challenge in the form of Swedish wrecking machine Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 in September. Your reaction was the typical mix of childish enthusiasm and overwhelming positivity that we’ve come to expect: “I don’t think he has a chance!” one of you emphatically declared, “This is a dumb fight,” praised another, “blah blah blah Bones should fight at heavyweight,” chimed in a third. Damn, does anything truly put a smile on your faces?

In any case, the early gambling lines seem to agree with most of you Taters that, yes, Jones vs. Gustafsson is nothing more than the latest in a series of squash matches that have constituted the Bones Era. With the matchup still months away, Jones has already opened as a -800 favorite to Gustafsson’s +500 odds. Ouch.

(And you can take that to the bank! Photo via Getty Images.)

How about some MMA news that doesn’t involve a fighter/manager sticking his foot in his mouth?

Personally, I think Gustafsson’s size should at the very least prevent him from getting absolutely manhandled by the champ, and expect to see that window slightly narrow as UFC 165 approaches. That being said, Gustafsson hasn’t really proved that he has eliminated the hole in his submission defense Phil Davis was able to exploit at UFC 112. I’m not saying that he hasn’t, but his recent wins over Vladdy, Thiago Silva and “Shogun” Rua were largely contested on the feet.

Sure, “The Mauler” has two UFC submission victories to his credit, but they came over James Te Huna and Cyrille Diabate, two fighters who aren’t exactly known for their submission prowess. Jones may make the claim that Jiu-Jitsu is his weakest area, but that hasn’t stopped him from submitting such BJJ black belts as Vitor Belfort and Lyoto Machida, so Gustafsson better be prepared for the champ’s creative grappling attack to say the least.

So, Potato Nation, do these early odds actually make you want to risk placing a small bet on “The Mauler” or do they have you heading for the nearest exit?

–J. Jones

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson Booked for UFC 165, September 21st in Toronto

(Gustafsson and Jones, both trying to hide their excitement about meeting Bob Sapp. Photo via @AlexTheMauler)

It’s official: UFC light-heavyweight champion Jon Jones will attempt to defend his title for a record-breaking sixth time against Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165, September 21st in Toronto, Ontario.

The last time we saw Bones in the Octagon, he was trying not freak out about the destroyed toe he accidentally sustained during his UFC 159 whupping of Chael Sonnen. But luckily, the digit was simply dislocated, which has made a five-month turnaround between fights a possibility. By the way, this will be the third time in two years that Jones has competed at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto; he previously made belt-defenses against Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort at the venue.

As for Gustafsson, an ouchie of his own prevented “The Mauler” from facing Gegard Mousasi back in April, but Gustafsson’s six-fight win streak still makes him qualified for his crack at the belt. Fun fact: Despite being an inch taller than Jones, Gustafsson will still have to deal with an eight-inch reach disadvantage.

Yes, this blows apart our dream for an October double-title-fight mega-card in Cowboys Stadium — especially when you consider that GSP vs. Hendricks is likely going to happen in November now. I’m feeling super-bad for October at this point.

Anyway: Jones vs. Gustafsson — your predictions, please.

(Gustafsson and Jones, both trying to hide their excitement about meeting Bob Sapp. Photo via @AlexTheMauler)

Anyway: Jones vs. Gustafsson — your predictions, please.

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson Booked for UFC 165, September 21st in Toronto

(Gustafsson and Jones, both trying to hide their excitement about meeting Bob Sapp. Photo via @AlexTheMauler)

Anyway: Jones vs. Gustafsson — your predictions, please.

(Gustafsson and Jones, both trying to hide their excitement about meeting Bob Sapp. Photo via @AlexTheMauler)

Anyway: Jones vs. Gustafsson — your predictions, please.

Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson Headlines UFC 165 in Toronto

UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones will head to the city of Toronto to face top contender Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 165 on September 21. UFC president Dana White confirmed the news when speaking to members of the media on Thursday dur…

According to White, the plan is for Jones to make his fifth title defense in the headline fight for the promotion’s return to Canada:

Just yesterday, Jones tweeted that he had talked to White and expected a fight announcement to happen soon.

Jones has fought in Toronto twice previously, defeating Lyoto Machida at UFC 140 and Vitor Belfort at UFC 152. Both bouts ended in submission victories for the defending champ of the 205-pound division.

Jones and Gustafsson have both been asking the UFC to put the fight together via Twitter and other networks, and now both of them will get their wish.

For Jones, this fight is the chance to break the record for the most consecutive light heavyweight title defenses in UFC history. He currently has five in a row, which is a record also held by former light heavyweight champion and UFC Hall of Famer Tito Ortiz.

Jones has made it clear that his goal is to break that record before talking about any potential superfights or an eventual move to the heavyweight division.

Challenging Jones’ hunt for the record will be the Swedish-born Gustafsson, who returns to action for the first time since last December when he defeated former champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Gustafsson was supposed to return to his home country in April against former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi, but a cut suffered late into his training camp prevented him from being cleared in time to take the bout.

Though discouraging at the time, missing that main event fight on Fuel TV allowed the Swede to step into a title shot after winning his last six fights in a row, including finishes in four of them.

Jones vs. Gustafsson is the first confirmed bout for the UFC’s return to Toronto, but more fights will likely be added in the coming weeks.

Damon Martin is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.

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