Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira: Analysis and Prediction for UFC 172 Main Event

The UFC 172 main event promises to be a thriller as Jon “Bones” Jones seeks to successfully defend his light heavyweight title for a record seventh time against Glover Teixeira.
Jones enters this bout at 19-1 and is ranked as the best pound-for-pound f…

The UFC 172 main event promises to be a thriller as Jon “Bones” Jones seeks to successfully defend his light heavyweight title for a record seventh time against Glover Teixeira.

Jones enters this bout at 19-1 and is ranked as the best pound-for-pound fighter while Teixeira hasn’t lost since his fourth MMA fight and sports a record of 22-2, including 13 knockouts. Teixeira should be a worthy adversary, but given Jones’ exceptional resume, it’s hard to fathom he will let his title slip this time around even against such a strong adversary.

Here is a closer look at the marquee clash during Saturday’s action at Baltimore Arena, including a final prediction as to how the fight will play out.

 

When: Saturday, April 26 at 10 p.m. ET

Where: Baltimore Arena, Baltimore, Maryland

Watch: Pay-per-view (check local cable provider)

Live Stream: UFC.tv (subscription required)

 

Analysis and Prediction

Teixeira is showing no shortage of confidence, as he’s been an outstanding force and a challenger who Jones has willingly embraced to take on in his latest fight. Although will and desire can’t be measured—and both of these men have plenty of it—the physical measurables seem to suggest Jones has a big advantage.

At age 26, Jones has an outstanding, complete MMA repertoire and is a little quicker than the heavy-hitting Teixeira. That will be key because Jones already has an edge in reach at 84.5″ to Teixeira’s 76″, per CBSSports.com’s Gregg Doyel.

Jones made some recent remarks about his last brutal showdown with Alexander Gustafsson that are sure to stir controversy, as he implied that he gave only 80 percent effort, per Yahoo Sports’ Elias Cepeda:

I think for the first time in my career I really started to feel myself. I really started to think, “Maybe I’ve got this extraordinary talent and maybe I just can’t be touched.” I went 80 percent [against Gustafsson]. I’m not making any excuses. Gustafsson did a great job in the fight but I know that I had a lot more in me.

That candor is admirable, but it also implies that Jones thinks he’s rather indomitable. The question is whether Jones will put forth what he considers 100 percent effort versus Teixeira. If Jones loses, those comments will raise questions and may impact his psychological approach to the Octagon.

There’s no question that Jones is the favorite, but UFC president Dana White feels Teixeira’s chances to pull off the improbable upset are being underestimated:

ESPN’s Josh Gross is rather confident that Jones will be in for a serious bout, and he believes that Teixeira has all the tools and none of the pressure Jones will be feeling to come out on top:

This should be an absolute slugfest no matter what type of effort Jones is putting out because Teixeira is simply not wary of or intimidated by Jones. Fox Sports’ Mike Chiappetta logged a key quote from Teixeira, who essentially guaranteed he’d take the title belt from Jones:

Both fighters are capable of wrestling well, delivering crushing knockout blows and are strong enough to submit opponents. It is a dream matchup that should go its full length, with neither Jones nor Teixeira giving much ground, thanks to their ability to absorb punishment and play defense when necessary.

The momentum should swing on counterstriking, which will play into Jones’ favor and be enough to give him a unanimous decision triumph.

Prediction: Jones via unanimous decision

The perception is that Jones has more to lose in this fight than Teixeira, and that’s true to an extent. But if he indeed is having issues staying in peak condition and giving maximum effort, nothing could galvanize him more moving forward than suffering his first true MMA loss as a professional at the hands of Teixeira. 

Since Jones is far younger than the 34-year-old Teixeira, he has plenty of career left to recover. On the other hand, Teixeira has enjoyed a meteoric rise through the UFC, and losing this fight would be a devastating setback. There’s no shame in losing to Jones since everyone who’s faced him has had such limited success, but it’s hard to argue that the Brazilian has no pressure on him at all.

All those factors figure to create compelling storylines to serve as the backdrop for this grand-finale fight at UFC 172. A win by either fighter would be a big boost for the promotion company, as it should be an epic clash regardless of the victor.

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UFC 172 Live Results, Play-by-Play and Fight Card Highlights

UFC 172 is now underway.
In the co-main event of the evening, Phil Davis will welcome Anthony Johnson back into the UFC fold, this time at 205 pounds. With a victory, “Mr. Wonderful” will edge ever closer to a title shot of his own.
Beyond the main and…

UFC 172 is now underway.

In the co-main event of the evening, Phil Davis will welcome Anthony Johnson back into the UFC fold, this time at 205 pounds. With a victory, “Mr. Wonderful” will edge ever closer to a title shot of his own.

Beyond the main and co-main attractions, UFC 172 hosts an additional eight contests, beginning on Fight Pass, moving to Fox Sports 1 and winding up on pay-per-view.

The entire 10-fight card is as follows:

 

UFC 172 Main Card

  • Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira
  • Anthony Johnson def. Phil Davis, unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
  • Luke Rockhold def. Tim Boetsch, submission (Round 1, 2:08)
  • Jim Miller def. Yancy Medeiros, submission (Round 1, 3:18)
  • Max Holloway def. Andre Fili, submission (Round 3, 3:39)

 

Fox Sports 1 Prelims

  • Joseph Benavidez def. Tim Elliott, submission (Round 1, 4:08)
  • Takanori Gomi def. Isaac Vallie-Flagg, unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
  • Bethe Correia def. Jessamyn Duke, unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27)
  • Danny Castillo def. Charlie Brenneman, knockout (Round 2, 0:21)

 

UFC Fight Pass Prelims

  • Chris Beal def. Patrick Williams, knockout (Round 1, 1:51)

 Follow along below for our live play-by-play coverage of UFC 172.

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Andre Fili vs. Max Holloway: Why Fans Should Not Sleep on This Bout

When it comes to UFC 172 on Saturday night, there’s a perfectly good reason why all of the focus is on UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones.
First off, he’s one of the two most polarizing figures in MMA right now. Simply put, fans love…

When it comes to UFC 172 on Saturday night, there’s a perfectly good reason why all of the focus is on UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones.

First off, he’s one of the two most polarizing figures in MMA right now. Simply put, fans love to see him perform or see someone bring the fight to him. Second, he is coming off a contentious unanimous-decision win over Alexander Gustafsson and defending his belt against Glover Teixeira, who told Sherdog.com’s Greg Savage that he will knock Jones out to win the title.

With a win, Jones can look forward to a rematch with Gustafsson, as well as facing a slew of contenders including (but not limited to) Daniel Cormier and Phil Davis. A host of others who are chomping at the bit to get their shot at gold might reveal themselves as the months progress and the light heavyweight scene unfolds.

Still, while a great deal of significance deserves to be placed on the main event, we must not forget about the first fight on the main card, which pits two rising featherweights against each other.

In that featherweight bout, Andre Fili sees action against Max Holloway, who opened up 2014 with a win over Will Chope in Singapore. On paper, this bout looks like just about any other scrap on a main card, right?

After all, Fili’s UFC 166 win over Jeremy Larsen was just his first UFC win, and Holloway just rebounded from a two-fight skid, so what makes this fight particularly special, besides the fact that it’s a featherweight fight?

First, consider the two styles at hand. In addition to the power he showed in Houston, “Touchy” Fili can work well enough on the ground to where he can find and secure a submission. Because of his knack for finishing fights (he has 10 finishes in 13 wins), he rarely ever goes the distance.

Against Holloway, though, Fili faces a strong striker in his own right, one who owns his share of finishes inside the Octagon. In contrast to Fili, though, Holloway does not mind taking a fight the full 15 minutes.

Holloway’s style of striking, while also punishing, serves as more of a volume-striking arsenal. In other words, even if he doesn’t immediately rock someone with a blow, he can pile on the onslaught until it overwhelms his opponent.

Second, this will be Fili’s chance to show what he can accomplish with a full camp and ample time to make 145 pounds. He fought Larsen at a catchweight of 148.5 pounds but made 145 for this bout with Holloway. Of course, Fili gets a mulligan for missing weight against Larsen since he replaced Charles Oliveira on two weeks’ notice. And in fairness to Fili, he was originally planning on fighting for another promotion at welterweight.

Nevertheless, he fights Holloway at featherweight on Saturday night, which can make things interesting in the long run. As it stands right now, Chad Mendes and Cub Swanson are the only two featherweights with clear cases for a shot at UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Mendes seems likely to get the next shot, and with a win over Jeremy Stephens in San Antonio later this year, Swanson would appear likely to follow suit.

Until we see what unfolds with Dustin Poirier, Conor McGregor and the other top 145ers, who else can Aldo expect to face next?

That’s where the third point of interest in this fight comes in. The winner of Fili vs. Holloway likely will not be far off from fighting a Top 10 guy, either in his next fight or soon afterward. If the winner fights and defeats that caliber of competition in his next bout, he can work his way up to becoming a fringe contender, thus putting him closer to the elite of the division.

Do Fili and Holloway have a chance to defeat Aldo at this point? It’s highly unlikely, but don’t sell either man short. Both fighters have paid attention to Aldo’s most recent performances and know that he must slow down sometime. Someone will work his way up to being “the one,” and both men want to be that guy.

Saturday night will go a long way in not only cementing both men’s respective standings in the sport but also serving notice to the MMA world that no one should sleep on them. If the winner doesn’t prove to be “the one” after this weekend, he will aim to do so soon enough.

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UFC 172: Key Storylines to Watch in Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira

The UFC picked a heck of a way to introduce itself to Baltimore.

In what will be the UFC’s first event in the city, light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will look to defend his crown against Glover Teixeira on Saturday at UFC 172. You wo…

The UFC picked a heck of a way to introduce itself to Baltimore.

In what will be the UFC’s first event in the city, light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones will look to defend his crown against Glover Teixeira on Saturday at UFC 172. You would be hard-pressed to find a fighter who has more momentum right now than Teixeira, but Jones is the champion for a reason. 

Jones recently discussed the upcoming clash, among other things, with Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com:

Without further ado, let’s look at a few storylines to watch for in the light heavyweight title fight.

 

Something Has to Give 

There is no other way to put it: Something has to give when these two titans clash on Saturday.

Jones has successfully defended his title six times, and the only loss on his resume came in the form of a disqualification in 2009 to Matt Hamill. Jones was winning that bout until he threw illegal downward elbows, ending his undefeated mark for good.

On the flip side, Teixeira has lost twice before, but he’s riding a 20-fight win streak. In fact, he hasn’t lost since 2005 in just his fourth professional contest.

These two fighters haven’t lost in years, which means someone is going to experience unfamiliar territory on Saturday night.

 

Reach Versus Striking Speed

The key to the match may be the reach of Jones going up against the punching and striking speed of Teixeira.

According to UFC.com, Teixeira lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute compared to Jones’ 4.15. However, the champ’s accuracy checks in at 54.23 percent, while Teixeira is only at 47.97 percent. Teixeira has definitely been known to take chances, which partially explains the lower accuracy total, but if he can connect on a flurry of strikes, he may take control of the fight.

On the flip side is the significant reach advantage that Jones brings to the table.

According to CBS Sports, Jones’ unofficial reach is 84.5 inches, while Teixeira’s is 76 inches. 

Look for Jones, who has better accuracy and a longer reach, to counterbalance the striking speed of Teixeira.

It will be difficult for the Brazilian to avoid Jones’ strikes throughout that match because of the champ’s reach advantage, which means that striking speed may not come into play as much as some might expect.

 

How Much Substance Is Behind Teixeira’s 20 Straight Wins?

Luke Thomas of MMAFighting.com brings up an interesting point when discussing Teixeira’s 20 straight victories:

Teixeira might actually be the best light heavyweight in the sport, but to date, we don’t have clear cut proof that he is. All we have is his resume, which while impressive, doesn’t contain enough to credit him as being the division’s best. That doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t win. It just means if you’re picking him, you’re doing so based off of the unseen, not the seen.

He simply hasn’t faced anyone of Jones’ caliber yet. That may ultimately not matter, but if Jones gets off to a quick start, we could see some self-doubt creep into the challenger’s approach.

That isn’t a winning formula against someone as dominant as Jones.

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UFC 172 Is Not the Most Stacked Card Ever, but That’s OK

It’s “the most stacked card we’ve ever done.”
It’s “crazy that Glover Teixeira is a 5-1 underdog.”
These are but two of the messages being championed by UFC President Dana White as he finishes his sell job for Saturday’s&n…

It’s “the most stacked card we’ve ever done.”

It’s “crazy that Glover Teixeira is a 5-1 underdog.”

These are but two of the messages being championed by UFC President Dana White as he finishes his sell job for Saturday’s UFC 172 event in Baltimore.

He is a fight promoter. It is his job to entice you to plop on your couch, pick up your remote and order his pay-per-view. And sometimes that job requires him to say things that have little to no basis in reality, even if it means selling an endless string of events with the same pitch: Tune in. This is the best thing we’ve ever put together.

Last week’s UFC on Fox 11 event was billed as the “most exciting card in the history of television.” As it turned out, the fight card was thrilling. It lived up to expectations and perhaps even exceeded them. But viewers didn’t buy the pitch, and the event scored just 2.5 million viewers, the lowest in the history of the series.

Why? I have to think it’s partially due to the UFC’s branding of every event as “stacked” or “exciting.” When every televised fight card is advertised as the biggest or the best, they become an unidentifiable mess. They don’t feel important because they don’t stand out from the pack. They aren’t must-see television because you can always tune in next weekend and see the next biggest and greatest card in UFC history.

UFC 172 represents a chance for the world to see Jon Jones in action. He is the greatest fighter in the world. He is a heavy favorite over his opponent, and rightly so. But the advertising for UFC 172 isn’t focused on the greatness of Jones. Instead, it sets up Teixeira as the latest “most dangerous threat” to Jones’ reign as champion. White is using his TV appearance time to build Teixeira up as a monster.

This is Promoting 101, of course. White wants potential viewers to believe the challenger has a chance of winning. But there comes a time when it no longer needs to be that way.

Instead of pretending like Teixeira has a real chance of beating Jones (he doesn’t), you focus on the champion. You highlight his greatness. You sell him as appointment television.

You don’t know how many chances you’re going to get to see this guy fight, so you’re an idiot if you miss it.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the best boxer in the world. Few fans actually believe any of his opponents have a chance of beating him when they step into the ring. Yet, they still tune in, but not to see the champion face his greatest challenge to date.

They tune in to see the champion, period.

The top three bouts at UFC 172 feature fights that could be called mismatches. Jones will handle Teixeira because the Brazilian simply isn’t good enough. Phil Davis will likely wrestle Anthony Johnson for three rounds, winning with ease. Luke Rockhold is nearly a 10-1 favorite over Tim Boetsch, and with good reason.

These are not the fights you see on a “stacked card.”

When I think of stacked cards, I think of a PPV with closely contested fights. Fights between superstars who have equal skill levels. Fights where you just aren’t sure who is going to win.

I also think of fight cards that are heavy on name value, like UFC 100. Fight cards filled with recognizable names from the first main card fight to the main event. With all due respect to Andre Fili, Max Holloway and Yancy Medeiros, they aren’t the level of fighter that one expects from stacked cards.

With the UFC running two or three cards on a weekly basis, PPV events will be diluted. That’s the cost of doing business. The UFC’s international expansion plans will serve the company well in the long run, but it comes at a cost.

UFC PPVs rarely feel like must-see events these days, because Joe Silva and Sean Shelby have so many slots to fill on televised shows. They are shorter on star power than ever before, and it’s nearly impossible to create the kind of cards from the UFC’s heyday where every fight featured at least one recognizable name.

It all comes down to truth in advertising. If every fight card is the most important in history, then none of them is the most important in history. If every challenger has a great chance of beating the champion, then what does that say about the skill level of the champion?

It is OK to celebrate the greatness of Jones, Cain Velasquez and Ronda Rousey. It is OK to tell the public to tune in because it’s another chance to see great champions accomplish great things. It is OK to avoid billing every event as the best and the greatest.

Because at some point, that sell job just won’t work anymore.

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Jones vs. Teixeira: Bones Is Primed to Retain UFC Light Heavyweight Title

Reigning UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones is poised to retain his title in Saturday night’s UFC 172 main event when he goes head-to-head with the surging Glover Teixeira. 
Although some are doubting the legitimacy of Jones’ most re…

Reigning UFC light heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones is poised to retain his title in Saturday night’s UFC 172 main event when he goes head-to-head with the surging Glover Teixeira. 

Although some are doubting the legitimacy of Jones’ most recent victory over Alexander Gustafsson, the 26-year-old certainly hasn’t turned in six consecutive successful title defenses by accident.

Watch for Jones to look to make a statement on Saturday in Baltimore. 

According to MMAjunkie (via USA Today Sports‘ Mike Bohn and Christian Stein), the 34-year-old Teixeira isn’t surprised he enters this weekend’s fight as a heavy underdog:

“There was no way I was going to be the betting favorite. In my own head, and that of my trainer’s, I am the favorite. But it’s no surprise that I’m not in the eyes of the fans.”

Even TNT analyst Reggie Miller is on the Jones bandwagon:

Despite Teixeira’s impressive 20-fight winning streak, he’s yet to face an opponent with the array of striking options and movement skills that Jones possesses. 

While Teixeira is a power puncher who can cause serious damage with his strikes, Jones has the quickness and explosion to avoid those shots and counter with his own.

Teixeira will also have an extremely difficult time making his way past Jones’ massive wingspan and actually landing any significant blows, per Bleacher Report MMA

Teixeira could find an advantage if he can take the fight to the ground, but that’s asking a lot against Jones, who was taken down for the first time against Gustafsson last fall.

The Brazilian boasts the submission skills to earn a stoppage victory without his fists, but getting Jones into a compromising position will be another tall task and something we’ve rarely seen. 

Jones will be putting both his title and superhuman reputation on the line when he steps into the Octagon against Teixeira on Saturday night at UFC 172. But there’s a reason he’s been the light heavyweight champion and one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet for the past three years—he knows how to survive in the spotlight.

Whether it’s a first-round knockout or a five-round slugfest decided by the judges, Jones possesses both the tools and the psyche to fend off any challenger, including Teixeira.

While there are some who believe he should have been dealt a loss by Gustafsson in his previous outing, an impressive triumph over Teixeira, who has been on cruise control, would reestablish Jones’ status as the light heavyweight king.

 

Follow Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Patrick Clarke on Twitter. 

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