Scoring a second-round knockout against a brash and talented fighter like Conor McGregor should be enough to win Chad Mendes a Performance of the Night bonus. McGregor is the real deal, but it’s easy to forget how dangerous Mendes can be.
After all, th…
Scoring a second-round knockout against a brash and talented fighter like ConorMcGregor should be enough to win Chad Mendes a Performance of the Night bonus. McGregor is the real deal, but it’s easy to forget how dangerous Mendes can be.
After all, the only man to ever beat him is the man he’s replacing in the UFC 189 main event, Jose Aldo. Mendes‘ skill set will be a nightmare for McGregor. The 30-year-old from Hanford, CA is an explosive athlete with heavy hands and a world-class wrestler.
If you were trying to find a style that could give McGregor problems, Mendes‘ combination of athleticism and skills would be perfect. The only potential drawback is Mendes‘ height. He’s only 5’6″, and he’ll be giving up a three-inch height and reach advantage.
However, he does have excellent head movement and speed. Mendes will use both to close the distance, take McGregor down and finish him via ground and pound in the second round. If you were worried about the main event losing some steam without Aldo, take a look at the pre-fight press conference highlights.
The energy is still there:
Thomas Almeida Will Annihilate Brad Pickett
The second POTN bonus should be a close one between Cody Garbrandt—who should stop Henry Briones— and Tim Means. Yes, I’m picking the Dirty Bird to submit “The Immortal” Matt Brown. However, rising superstar Thomas Almeida is likely to put on the most impressive striking clinic of the evening.
Brad Pickett is a tough veteran, but he’s 36 years old and set to face a 23-year-old whirlwind who will grow into the sport’s next superstar. At 19-0, with finishes in 95 percent of his fights, Almeida is already a force to be reckoned with—and he’s only getting better.
If you did not know about Thomas Almeida before, you will know about him this Saturday around 11 p.m. The heavy-hitting, do-it-all Chute Boxe prodigy is coming for Brad Pickett’s soul, and he will have it.
Almeida is too fast and his striking game is too diversified for Pickett. Get ready for a systematic destruction to open up the main card.
Fight of the Night – Means vs. Brown
Brown is a FOTN magnet, but he usually wins the epic battles in which he competes. On Saturday, Means’ new-found confidence, striking prowess and submission skills will be the undoing of The Immortal.
Brown has a tendency to be wild with his striking—especially once he’s been hit or going in for the stoppage himself. Against a crafty and skilled fighter like Means, that’ll put him in a tough situation.
Expect Means to mix in takedowns and straight punches to counter Brown’s power shots. Stopping Brown with strikes has proved near impossible, but if Means secures a choke on the ground, his long limbs will lead to Brown’s voluntary or technical submission.
First, let me say, I’m no professional gambler, but who really is? What I am is a former professional fighter and a trainer of multiple UFC fighters, and I’ve recently (last few years—not, like, today’s my first time) started betting on fights. I’ve also been doing very well with my bets, so I thought I’d share them with you. So strap in for this, the inaugural edition of Gambler’s Gambit, or, Smart Fights to Not Lose Your Ass On at UFC 189.
First, let me say, I’m no professional gambler, but who really is? What I am is a former professional fighter and a trainer of multiple UFC fighters, and I’ve recently (last few years—not, like, today’s my first time) started betting on fights. I’ve also been doing very well with my bets, so I thought I’d share them with you. So strap in for this, the inaugural edition of Gambler’s Gambit, or, Smart Fights to Not Lose Your Ass On at UFC 189.
Now, I certainly don’t advocate gambling your house or children’s diaper money, especially if you have an addictive personality, but if you’re responsible, let’s take a look at this UFC 189 card after I take you through a bit of my methodology. If you’re already chomping at the bit to see where to piss away your money, scroll down for my picks (and find some damn patience).
Now that all of the responsible people have left the building, we need to set some ground rules:
1. Not every fight should be bet on. Most fights have zero to offer in terms of ways to make money. Either, A: the odds are crap; or, B: the fights are too close to call.
2. Not every fight card has even one fight that is worth betting on, so don’t get shifty and start throwing money down out of boredom. Go spend that money that’s burning a hole in your pocket on something fun, something tangible, like gas for your broken down Jalopy or, as mentioned before, your children’s diapers.
3. Don’t bet odds. The odds are that way for a reason: for you to lose money. What I mean by that is don’t go, “So and so has a punchers chance, and for those odds it’s worth it.” No he doesn’t, and no it’s not.
4. Not all underdogs are good bets, not all favorites are bad bets, and frankly, quite often it’s the opposite. Hell, if you bet $100 on a fighter that’s -500 and won, you’d win $20. A 20% return is better than most mutual funds and stocks—but that doesn’t mean pull everything out of the market and become a professional gambler for the week until you lose it all.
5. You need to be okay losing the money you bet. I have done well lately, and if I were a line chart, I’d have an upward trend, but just like the stock market, I have bad days. You will too.
My Methodology (The Short Version):
The first thing I do is analyze the fights that interest me. I go through each fighter’s record and find similar opponent styles to his/her current match up and see how he/she fared. Then, I go through and watch tape of each fighter and see if they give any tells that make me think he has an advantage/disadvantage against opponent. Then I pick my winner. The pick is the important part, though. I try to only bet on fights that I’m certain of the winner. So, none of this, “I think Robbie Lawler has a 51-49% chance of beating Macdonald.” To me, that’s no good, and that’s how you lose money.
The Picks:
(All odds listed are from Bovada the day of publication and may change)
Remember, these are “American” odds, so if the odds are -250, that means you’d have to wager $250 to win $100 (plus you’re money back, of course). If the odds are +250, that means you’d have to wager $100 to earn $250.
Why: Brown is just too damn tough these days. Means is a scrappy fighter, but Brown is hanging with the elite in the division lately. Though Brown doesn’t seem to be able to get that elusive victory over the top 3, he’s not fighting one of them here, and he comes out the victor. I’m surprised the odds aren’t more heavily favored in Brown’s direction, and because of the odds being so good, this is a fight to throw down some cash without much worry of it disappearing.
Why: I think Bermudez will know his role against Stephens and stick to a wrestling gameplan and get the decision, as long as he doesn’t find himself on the painful end of a hadouken uppercut.
Why: I think Rory is talented, but he may be a perpetual bridesmaid. I think he really wants to win this fight and is going to come out very aggressively, which will be his downfall. Rory beats people that he can outstrike and that he can dictate whether the fight stays standing or on the ground. He may very well be able to take Lawler down, but can he keep him there? I don’t think so, nor will he outstrike Lawler.
Why: I think this fight goes similar to the Benson/Thatch fight. Now, I know Gunnar doesn’t have Benson’s takedowns or power/speed/explosiveness, but he’s bigger than Benson and I think Gunnar will be able to weather the early storm of Thatch.
Why: Now, this is the riskiest bet of all. I think Swick has every skill set to beat Garcia, especially given his body type and fighting style (Garcia lost to Seth Baczynski and Neil Magny—both built just like Swick). The question mark on this one goes after: What the hell kind of Mike Swick are we going to see after a 3 year layoff and what has Thailand done to him? If Swick comes back with any semblance of his former self, he wins this easily. If not, Garcia is going to punch his two chins off.
Saturday night in Las Vegas, the hottest fighter in MMA will climb into the cage to face one of the elite fighters in his division as Conor McGregor battles Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. Mendes is a late replacement for reigning feat…
Saturday night in Las Vegas, the hottest fighter in MMA will climb into the cage to face one of the elite fighters in his division as ConorMcGregor battles Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. Mendes is a late replacement for reigning featherweight champion Jose Aldo, who withdrew with an injury.
It’s a disappointment that Aldo once more will fail to defend his title, but Mendes vs. McGregor is not much of a step down in terms of potential fireworks and drama. McGregor has electrified crowds, but against Mendes, we’ll truly get to see how good the Irishman really is.
A former All-American wrestler, Mendes has lost just twice in his career, both times to Aldo. Against the rest of the featherweight division, he has been a dominant, grinding fighter.
Both men have the potential to finish things off in exciting fashion. The odds on this fight reflect the fact, with McGregor and Mendes going off nearly even.
According to Odds Shark, McGregor is a modest favorite of minus-185. Mendes is an underdog of just plus-160. Considering the popularity of McGregor, that’s a very tight line.
My feeling is Mendes will pull off a minor upset in this fight and finally capture a version of the world title. From the perspective of building storylines, it would be more exciting for McGregor to sleep Mendes in dramatic fashion and then build even longer toward a showdown with Aldo.
But it’s all about reality in the cage. Realistically, McGregor certainly has a shot at winning this fight by knockout.
But Mendes will use his elite wrestling to grind out a rough, hard-fought decision. He’ll manage to hang tough on his feet and then use the clinch to score with dirty boxing and push the fight to where he wants it to happen, on the mat and against the cage.
Odds and Predictions for Rest of the Main Card
If Odds Shark has things tight for McGregor and Mendes, it’s got them even closer for the co-main event, Rory MacDonald vs. Robbie Lawler. MacDonald is a slight favorite at just minus-170, and Lawler is the underdog at plus-150.
Lawler, age 33, is one of the sport’s most experienced veterans and a historical tie-in to the old days of Pat Miletich’s elite fighting squads. It took him 14 years and 10 losses before he finally captured the world title, but after his title win over champion Johny Hendricks last December, few would question his elite status.
At just 25, MacDonald has to be viewed as something of a prodigy. He’s intelligent, athletic and a well-rounded fighter in general. One of his only two career losses came against Lawler by split decision in 2013.
MacDonald’s other loss was against Carlos Condit in 2010. It was a Round 3 TKO loss in a Fight of the Night effort. At the time, Condit was one of the stars of the division, and MacDonald had yet to turn 21.
I hate to pick against a veteran like Lawler, but a young athlete with MacDonald’s skills and intelligence just won’t lose a rematch of a close fight from two years ago against a much older fighter.
MacDonald will get the better of some crisp striking on the feet and will manage to secure a takedown and a dominant position in at least one round to earn a decision win.
Two experienced featherweights in their primes will face off when Jeremy Stephens meets Dennis Bermudez. It’s frankly surprising that Odds Shark has this one as close as it does. It lists Bermudez at just minus-210.
The well-traveled Stephens is an underdog of just plus-175. It’s difficult to reconcile betting on him in this fight for such a low payout.
Stephens is coming off of two losses. While only a year older than Bermudez, he’s got a lot more miles on his tires. Expect Bermudez to use his strong wrestling background to control the fight and beat Stephens up to win by late TKO.
In yet another close fight on this card, Odds Shark has welterweight Brandon Thatch as a minor favorite at minus-175, with Gunnar Nelson listed as a plus-155 underdog.
This is a very tough pick to make. Thatch showed true game before losing by submission to former lightweight champion Benson Henderson. But I’m going to pick Nelson, a Renzo Gracie black belt, to win by submission.
By far the biggest underdog on the main card is Brad Pickett. Odds Shark has him as plus-610 and his opponent, Thomas Almeida, as a minus-920 favorite.
I can’t disagree with this one. The undefeated Almeida is a 23-year-old phenom. The bantamweight represents the legendary Chute Boxe Academy.
Almeida is 19-0 with 14 KOs and four submissions. Expect him to record another one Saturday. There’s a good chance it will be one of the main things fight fans are discussing afterward.
The biggest fight card of the year is upon us, and the 11-fight slate is nearly official. All that is left is for the fighters to hit the scales Friday evening.
Conor McGregor was supposed to meet Jose Aldo, but an injury forced the featherweight champ…
The biggest fight card of the year is upon us, and the 11-fight slate is nearly official. All that is left is for the fighters to hit the scales Friday evening.
ConorMcGregor was supposed to meet Jose Aldo, but an injury forced the featherweight champion off the card. Enter Chad Mendes for an interim title tilt. The featherweight battle will headline the event with UFC welterweight champion Robbie Lawler playing second fiddle against Rory MacDonald.
Bleacher Report will have full coverage of the electric weigh-ins when they get underway.
The weigh-ins begin at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC 189 Fight Card
Interim UFC Featherweight Championship: Chad Mendes vs. ConorMcGregor
UFC Welterweight Championship: Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald
As fight time nears, the Conor McGregor hype train continues to make him a slightly heavier favorite against Chad Mendes in the main event at UFC 189.
According to Odds Shark, McGregor’s odds have gone from 20-21 to 10-19 since the line first ope…
As fight time nears, the ConorMcGregor hype train continues to make him a slightly heavier favorite against Chad Mendes in the main event at UFC 189.
According to Odds Shark, McGregor‘s odds have gone from 20-21 to 10-19 since the line first opened. Mendes—on the other hand—has gone from equal footing with McGregor to a slight underdog as fight time approaches.
At this point, the line is assuredly a reflection of McGregor‘s popularity rather than an assessment of the fight. All things considered, it’s a tough fight to handicap due to McGregor‘s meteoric rise up the rankings. For as good as he’s been against the likes of Dennis Siver, Diego Brandao and Dustin Poirier, there’s still no way to tell how he’ll perform with the best of the division standing across the cage from him.
The line has definitely been brought into question by those who feel like Mendes deserves to at least be at even odds with McGregor. Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report chimed in on the subject:
Just like everything about this fight, it really comes down to how you perceive McGregor. For those that see him as the next big thing in MMA, this line is an extreme value. Much like Jon Jones coming in as low as a 20-37 (-185) favorite against Shogun Rua in his first title defense, these odds may seem absurd in a few years.
On the other hand, if you view McGregor as nothing more than a mouthpiece who is good with promotion, the fact he’s even favored is absurd. After all, Mendes is currently ranked as the No. 1 fighter in the division. He holds wins over four of the fighters in the top 10, including a first-round dismantling of Ricardo Lamas in his last fight out.
By contrast, McGregor‘s only victory against a fighter in the top 10 of the division at the time of writing was over Max Holloway in a bout that went the distance.
Conclusions can’t be drawn by comparing resumes in this case, though. McGregor can only beat who UFC brass puts in front of him. If Mendes fought the same slate of opponents that McGregor has, he would probably run through them in easy fashion.
However, if McGregor fought the same slate Mendes has, we really don’t know if he would succeed where Mendes has failed (namely, beating Jose Aldo).
In picking this fight, one has to look at the skills each fighter is bringing to the cage. This bout has been billed as a wrestler vs. striker matchup, but that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story. As Patrick Wyman of Sherdog notes, Mendes is an underrated striker:
In fact, Wyman has predicted that Mendes‘ ability to counterstrike in tandem with his takedowns will be the reason he takes home decision:
In a pure striking matchup, the Irishman will eventually force Mendes to the fence and overwhelm him with volume and pressure. Mendes’ takedowns, however, should prevent McGregor from settling into his preferred rhythm and offensive output. In a slower-paced fight, the brick-fisted Mendes can get his own counter game going, crack McGregor in the pocket and eat up large chunks of time. The pick is Mendes by close decision in a fun, back-and-forth fight.
By the same token, McGregor‘s own wrestling ability might be a little overlooked heading into the fight. According to FightMetric, he does boast a 100 percent takedown defense rate. But most interestingly, he’s also spent a good percentage of time controlling his opponents on the mat, per Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics:
The biggest advantage in the fight might not actually have to do with skill in the first place. It’s McGregor‘s length that could give Mendes issues. The Notorious will have an 8″ reach advantage over the Money.
It’s one of the reasons that Scott Harris of Bleacher Report believes that McGregor will have his hand raised via TKO in the second round.
Mendes will have a lot more trouble closing the distance than people think. Too much trouble, in fact. McGregor will spray some hard stuff on him at range and catch him coming in with something harder. This fight might hit the ground, where McGregor is a bit of an unknown quantity, but I think he’ll find a way to scramble back to his feet and avoid big damage.
As we’ve seen illustrated by Jon Jones over the years, a fighter who knows how to control distance with freakish length is tough to beat—even against the best of wrestlers. Bones has found ways to pick apart some great grapplers, and McGregor feels like he’s destined to be that kind of fighter.
Mendes will have his moments in the fight, but this is looking like an additional step in the ultimate buildup to a match with Jose Aldo.
Conor McGregor vs. Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title might not be the UFC 189 main event we had hoped for, but Saturday’s card remains must-see television despite the withdrawal of featherweight champion Jose Aldo. After all, this i…
ConorMcGregor vs. Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title might not be the UFC 189 main event we had hoped for, but Saturday’s card remains must-see television despite the withdrawal of featherweight champion Jose Aldo. After all, this is the McGregor show, and people will tune in to see the Irishman irrespective of his opponent.
In addition to the main event, we can look forward to a rematch between Robbie Lawler and Rory MacDonald for the UFC welterweight title, Dennis Bermudez vs. Jeremy Stephens, Brandon Thatch vs. Gunnar Nelson and Brad Pickett vs. Thomas Almeida. The event is about as stacked as a modern UFC card is likely to be.
As ever, Bleacher Report MMA’s prediction team is here to guide you through Saturday night’s main card. Read on for the views of Scott Harris, Riley Kontek, Sean Smith, Craig Amos and yours truly, James MacDonald.
Scoring a second-round knockout against a brash and talented fighter like Conor McGregor should be enough to win Chad Mendes a Performance of the Night bonus. McGregor is the real deal, but it’s easy to forget how dangerous Mendes can be.
