Hi, kids. Do you like violence?
With Eminem’s famous opening line (Warning: NFSW language)—so simple, so, I don’t know, fraught?—we welcome you to UFC 195. Come one, come all.
MMA is always violent. Why, on this Saturday in Las V…
Hi, kids. Do you like violence?
With Eminem’s famous opening line (Warning: NFSW language)—so simple, so, I don’t know, fraught?—we welcome you to UFC 195. Come one, come all.
MMA is always violent. Why, on this Saturday in Las Vegas, was the violence different from other days?
Because Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit fought each other, with the former’s welterweight championship on the line. With a whopping 35 knockout victories between them, you don’t need a treasure map to discover the game plan.
Don’t make the mistake, though, of assuming these two are mindless lunks. Lawler, the champ, might have the heaviest right hand and some of the best defensive skills in the world, and he used both to majestic effect in his last fight, a win over Rory MacDonald that was probably the most stirring contest of 2015.
In the other corner, Condit is a whirling muay thai dervish with a penchant for bloodshed. But he’s a cerebral game-planner, too, working alongside the likes of Jon Jones and Holly Holm at the vaunted Jackson-Winkeljohn camp in New Mexico.
The 31-year-old challenger and the 33-year-old champion are at the absolute peaks of their games. Those peaks are stained red, and not from the picturesque desert sunset. Who would add a flash of gold to his scene with the welterweight strap?
Violence was a recurring theme throughout the night, from the Fight Pass prelims to finale. So sit back, break a resolution or two and ring in the new year with these—the real winners and losers from UFC 195.
As always, full card results appear on the final slide.
The stakes couldn’t have been higher for Andrei Arlovski and Stipe Miocic at UFC 195.
Miocic, barely a year removed from his UFC on Fox 13 loss to Junior dos Santos, couldn’t afford to have another L on his record from a top-five fighter. The hea…
The stakes couldn’t have been higher for Andrei Arlovski and StipeMiocic at UFC 195.
Miocic, barely a year removed from his UFC on Fox 13 loss to Junior dos Santos, couldn’t afford to have another L on his record from a top-five fighter. The heavyweight division’s title picture is too competitive right now, with Alistair Overeem and Ben Rothwell both owning a claim for a title shot; if Miocic came up short against Arlovski, it would have locked him out of contention for years (and, at 33 years old, the clock is working against him as it is).
When it comes to “the clock,” though, Arlovski has been fighting on borrowed time for years now. A four-fight losing streak that started with a terrifying overhand right from FedorEmelianenko had many openly wondering aloud whether or not Arlovski should even be allowed to fight anymore. The fact that he recovered from that stretch, never mind fought his way back into the top 10, is nothing short of a miracle.
Nothing short of their continued relevance was on the line in this fight…and tragically, only one man would be able to hold on. That man, of course, was StipeMiocic.
The fight was a short one.
After a brief feeling-out period, Miocic exploded into a right hand that slipped through Arlovski’s guard. The punch landed cleanly to the side of the former champ’s head, and it had him visibly rocked. Miocic didn’t exactly stay poised in that situation, winging a few wild punches, but he maintained the center of the cage and continued on offense.
When Miocic reset his feet, Arlovski was, functionally, a human punching bag. Cemented in place with his hands stuck to his ears, Miocic had free rein of his face and body, and made the most of the opportunity. Two more hard punches landed, and Arlovski folded to the canvas. The referee had seen enough and waved the fight to a close at 0:57 of Round 1.
Miocic, to his credit, made the most of his camera time after the fight. Immediately after winning, he stormed across the cage and shouted at UFC President Dana White, and demanded a title shot. He did the same again when UFC commentator Joe Rogan presented him with a microphone.
While he certainly deserves it, there is no guarantee he will get it.
According to strict “MMA Math,” the next in line for a title shot is Ben Rothwell, who is riding an impressive winning streak. Another more likely candidate is Alistair Overeem, who knocked out Junior dos Santos at UFC on Fox 17.
Whether or not Miocic‘s prayers will be answered will be an interesting story for the coming months. Whether Arlovski can come back from this setback, however, is perhaps even more compelling.
No. 12-ranked lightweight contender Dustin Poirier (19-4) and Joe Duffy (14-2) were initially slated to mix it up in Dublin, Ireland, but a fight-week concussion postponed the bout until UFC 195 on Saturday.
It was well worth the wait.
The UFC kep…
No. 12-ranked lightweight contender Dustin Poirier (19-4) and Joe Duffy (14-2) were initially slated to mix it up in Dublin, Ireland, but a fight-week concussion postponed the bout until UFC 195 on Saturday.
It was well worth the wait.
The UFC kept the fight on its digital streaming service UFC Fight Pass, and those who did not subscribe missed out on a fantastic lightweight scrap.
Poirier swept the scorecards for a unanimous decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27).
Duffy and Poirier went straight to work in the first frame. Duffy kept his hands low and cracked Poirier with his boxing. Poirier struggled to identify the angles the punches were coming from, but he found plenty of offense of his own.
The Irishman hurt Poirier in the stand-up, but the latter survived and rebounded later in the round. Poirier took Duffy down and scored with an elbow that landed flush. It was a closely contested first round of action.
Both men were bloodied at the start of the second frame.
Poirier was quicker with his takedown in the second and kept top position while scoring with his ground-and-pound. Duffy was active off his back, but lacing up a submission became increasingly difficult with the volume of blood that accumulated throughout the five minutes.
The No. 12-ranked contender had a dominant final minute in the second. When the horn sounded, Duffy smiled at Poirier, and the two warriors gave each other props before heading back to their corners between rounds.
At the start of the third, Duffy’s left eye wore the damage dished out by Poirier.
Poirier went right back to what had given him the most success—the ground game. He completed another successful takedown one minute into the final round. Duffy struggled to deal with Poirier’s top game but nearly swept him into a kneebar. Duffy continued to attack with a heel hook, but the American was patient and escaped.
Despite fun ground work from both men, the referee stood them up with about one minute remaining in the fight. Duffy started to have success with his boxing, but then Poirier dragged him right back down to the canvas. Duffy threw up a triangle and got it in the remaining seconds, but Poirier rode out the clock.
The downside to this fight was that it was scheduled for three rounds in Las Vegas instead of five in Dublin. We can only imagine what would have happened if this fight was allowed to continue for another 10 minutes.
What’s next for these two?
The possible Conor McGregor rematch is completely off the table now—for Duffy that is. Poirier could still have the featherweight champion in the cross hairs should the bombastic superstar come to lightweight in 2016. Duffy won’t drop too far in the rankings given the excitement of the fight, but he won’t meet a ranked opponent in his next outing.
Poirier proved to any remaining doubters that he belongs among the upper echelon of the 155-pound division.
It’s difficult to say who Poirier will fight next, given the uncertainty of the title picture. If McGregor wants the shot at the title, then he’ll get it, but if he stays at 145 pounds, both Tony Ferguson and the winner of Anthony Pettis vs. Eddie Alvarez are logical choices for Poirier. Someone will be left out, and that someone would be a great opponent for him.
Other names who make sense are Nate Diaz and Edson Barboza. All would be thrilling fights, but the entire Top 10 picture is murky until the champion Rafael dos Anjos has a fight.
Until then, we can just be happy we witnessed a stellar battle between two top-level fighters who gave it their all. Fans can’t ask for anything more.
UFC 195 will bring in 2016 with a fan-friendly main event between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. If the two fighters’ past is any indication, it should serve as a harbinger for a violent year.
Lawler has been on a tear in his current titl…
UFC 195 will bring in 2016 with a fan-friendly main event between Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit. If the two fighters’ past is any indication, it should serve as a harbinger for a violent year.
Lawler has been on a tear in his current title run. Ruthless has lived up to his moniker with a knockout victory in his first title defense against Rory MacDonald, a split-decision win over Johny Hendricks and wins over Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown.
Condit will be the next in a line of tough opponents Lawler has fought on his journey to the top. The Natural Born Killer earned the shot by virtue of a second-round TKO win over Thiago Alves but has also picked up the finish in 28 of his 30 wins.
Here’s a look at how the two match up, along with the latest odds for the bout from Odds Shark:
You won’t find a more evenly matched fight according to the odds. Vegas has this one pegged as a pick ’em with the champion opening as a slight favorite. Here’s a look at why a case could be made for both fighters, along with a final prediction as to who leaves UFC 195 with the belt.
Why Carlos Condit Can Take the Belt
Looking at the recent history between both of these fighters, it doesn’t feel like the odds should be this close. While Lawler has laid much of the division to waste, Condit has come up short in three of his last five fights.
However, fights aren’t about past results, they are about matchups, and Condit matches up in interesting ways against Lawler.
First, his technical striking is on par if not better than Lawler’s. According to the Tale of the Tape offered up by Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, his overall stand-up ratio of 1.7 is much better than Lawler’s 0.8:
Essentially, what that means is that Condit is adept at ensuring that he’s landing more than his opponent is landing. The Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter is a powerful striker, but he’s just as good at sticking and moving as he is unloading power shots.
His ability to utilize a diverse array of strikes from range gives him a chance to outpoint Lawler over the course of a five-round fight, much like his unanimous-decision win over Nick Diaz. However, his ability to turn a fight on its his head with his power must be taken into account, a la his knockout win over Dong Hyun Kim.
Lawler has more skills in the totality of his game and isn’t reluctant to wrestle necessarily, but when Condit lands, he does so with the ability to make the fight’s trajectory change instantly. Even if one is diversifying offense against him and winning rounds, Condit can change the balance of power almost instantly. Lawler’s chin is by no means compromised. It’s even good, but it’s not great and one combination from Condit can rearrange everything. I like the challenger’s chances here even if I’m not convinced he’s the best welterweight in the division.
Why Robbie Lawler Can Defend the Title
Put simply, Robbie Lawler can defend his title because he’s done it before.
There’s a reason both examples of Condit’s victories came from 2012 or later. He only has two wins since beating Diaz in 2012.
Lawler is 7-1 in that time span, with his only loss coming against Hendricks by split decision. There’s no doubt Ruthless has the better resume of late.
Beyond that, there are plenty of areas in which Lawler has the upper hand. Not the least of which is chin. As noted in Kuhn’s infographic, Lawler has only been knocked down one time in all of the UFC fights he analyzed. Meanwhile Condit has been knocked down three times.
Both fighters have been noted for their duarbility. They’ve each been knocked out just once in their respective careers. However, Lawlers has proven to be even more durable, surviving slugfests with Henrdricks and MacDonald in recent outings.
It’s his recent form that has experts like Bleacher Report’s Pat Wyman going with the reigning champion in this one:
Lawler just seems to be operating on another level right now. He’s beaten better competition more recently and has shown an incredible ability to adapt to what his opponent’s giving him. We know Condit will probably start a bit slowly, and Lawler can take advantage of that by banking the early rounds. He might even hit hard enough to dent the ultra-durable Condit.
The more likely scenario, however, points to a back-and-forth bloodbath. Lawler is the pick by decision in a potential fight-of-the-year matchup.
In addition to the advantages Lawler holds in the stand-up department, he’s also the slightly better offensive wrestler. He doesn’t go to it often, but he took down Matt Brown twice and happens to average more takedowns per 15 minutes than the challenger.
Prediction
Many who are picking Lawler point to the string of victories that Lawler has put together in his last three fights. However, those bouts could also be a detriment.
He absorbed 279 significant strikes in those three bouts since July 2014.
Even though Lawler fights with technique, his bouts have oftentimes looked like Rock ‘Em Sock ‘Em Robots. It’s a pattern that’s reason for pause heading into yet another bout with a potent striker.
Condit, meanwhile, has fought just twice in that same time frame and absorbed a total of 48 significant strikes. Though he’s been slowed by injuries, he hasn’t engaged in the battles that Lawler has.
In a bout that promises to be yet another battle, that could be the difference. Expect both fighters to land with regularity as Lawler attempts to defend his belt in another blaze of glory.
However, the fact that Condit has taken a little less damage recently and can kickbox his way to win a round or two from the champion without engaging in a firefight gives him the slight edge.
UFC 195 will get MMA off to a wonderful start in 2016 on Saturday, with the main event between welterweight champion Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit set to be a belter of a contest.
Lawler comes into this one having enjoyed a renaissance in his UFC car…
UFC 195 will get MMA off to a wonderful start in 2016 on Saturday, with the main event between welterweight champion Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit set to be a belter of a contest.
Lawler comes into this one having enjoyed a renaissance in his UFC career, beating Johny Hendricks to take the title in December 2014 and then defending it in a spectacular showdown with Rory MacDonald at UFC 189. Condit, another man who is renowned for his exciting fighting style, is seeking to wrest away Lawler’s belt.
It’s the main attraction on what is a stellar card of fighting, including some intriguing preliminary bouts. Here are all the details you need on where to stream those fights, the card in full and a look at who is likely to come out on top in these clashes.
Condit will hope to prosper on arguably the biggest night of his career so far, as he seeks to usurp the champion Lawler in what many are expecting to be one of the standout fights of 2016.
That’s due to the precedent both men have set in previous outings. Condit has regularly thrilled fans around the globe with his brash style, with bouts against MacDonald, Georges St-Pierre, Hendricks and Martin Kampmann standing out as especially memorable. The man from New Mexico also has a reputation for producing sensational knockouts.
UFC President Dana White gave us reminder of what Condit is capable of ahead of this one, with this clip of his stunning victory over Dong Hyun Kim in 2011:
Lawler may well be one of his most durable opponents to date, though. Despite being bloodied and bruised by MacDonald at UFC 189, the champion still had enough in him to up his levels in the fifth round, finishing his game opponent with a flurry of shots.
It’s expected this fight will go a similar way. They are both exceptional strikers, and neither takes a step back inside the Octagon. As aforementioned, they have both proved their warrior-like qualities time after time.
Even the biggest names in the sport are looking forward to this one, including light heavyweight star Jon Jones:
In a bout that is set to sway back and forth, there’s likely to be little separating these two. It’s a fight that will rarely go to the mat, which means Condit’s technical advantage is unlikely to be too decisive. If he can stay disciplined, the challenger has a fine chance of taking this one, but Lawler’s superior power will most likely see him emerge victorious from a bloodbath.
Prediction: Lawler via decision
Brandao vs. Ortega
Diego Brandao and Brian Ortega will face off on the undercard of this bill in what should be an intriguing contest between two exciting featherweights.
Brandao is seeking to re-establish himself as a less erratic competitor, having failed to find consistency when stepping into the cage against savvy opposition such as current champion Conor McGregor. The Brazilian can be savage at times, capable of rocking fighters with his power and keeping them on edge with his submission quality. A more measured approach will surely help him too.
Ortega will test out any frailties, as was evident in the 24-year-old’s brilliant win over Thiago Tavares. Ortega was pleased to hear that his triumph, which came via technical knockout in the third round, was rated as one of the best of 2015:
There’s a swell of momentum behind Ortega at the moment, with his showmanship and technical qualities making him popular among fans. Brandao will be the biggest test of his short career to date, though, as the youngster seeks to secure his 10th win in professional MMA.
Whoever wins this one will propel himself up the ladder in a featherweight division that is wide-open at the moment. As a young fighter, there’s little pressure on Ortega to prosper here, with the 28-year-old Brandao knowing the time is now for him to put together a sequence and move up the rankings.
The Brazilian has not coped well with high expectations in the past. As a result, Ortega will get the job done inside the distance, most likely via submission.
The UFC is getting 2016 off on the right foot. The first event of the year gives us a welterweight championship fight worthy of all of our attention.
Robbie Lawler, the undisputed welterweight champion, will defend against No. 4-ranked Carlos Condit. I…
The UFC is getting 2016 off on the right foot. The first event of the year gives us a welterweight championship fight worthy of all of our attention.
Robbie Lawler, the undisputed welterweight champion, will defend against No. 4-ranked Carlos Condit. It’s a matchup that screams violence. Two aggressive fighters who love to throw down will mix it up for the gold and our enjoyment.
And the co-main event looks to be a heavyweight title eliminator. No. 2-ranked contender Andrei Arlovski and No. 3-ranked Stipe Miocic are slated to throw their lunch-box-sized fists at one another in an attempt to lay claim as the next rightful challenger.
The rest of the main card looks like plenty of fun as well, and the Bleacher Report staff are excited to start a new season of fight picks.
The staff team of Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Sydnie Jones, Nathan McCarter and Steven Rondina are here to give you our thoughts on who walks out of UFC 195 as victors.
The stakes couldn’t have been higher for Andrei Arlovski and