Tag: UFC Betting Lines

Gambling Addiction Enabler Head-To-Head: April Edition


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.


(Pictured above: A perfect example of the Easy Money/KILL IT WITH FIRE dichotomy of MMA gambling.)

With the UFC alone churning out an event a week nowadays, there has never been a better time to be an MMA fan with a crippling gambling addiction. But being that we have neither the time nor the patience to dedicate an entire article to the moneymaking opportunities present in Richard Walsh vs. Chris Indich (<—actual fight happening this week), we’ve instead rounded up our two most compulsive gamblers, staff writers Jared Jones and Seth Falvo, and had them highlight the best fights to bet on this month, “versus” style, in a revamped version of the gambling addiction enabler you all know and love. Enjoy.

The Main Events
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Tim Kennedy (+155) vs. Michael Bisping (-175)

Seth: You really have to love the irony here: Jake Shields was released from the UFC because he’ll never be a contender. The next four guys to headline UFC cards? Big Nog, Roy Nelson, Tim Kennedy and Michael Bisping. Oh man, that’s good stuff.

Anyways, Bisping shall take the unanimous decision. There shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Jared: Ugh, another Michael Bisping fight featuring a heated build-up that is all but guaranteed to underwhelm once the actual cage door closes. I hate to agree with my fellow staffer, for he is a contemptuous scoundrel of the worst nature, but Bisping should use his length and endless gastank to jab and jog his way to another UD here. Kennedy may have been able to KO Rafael Natal (on few days notice) in front of his fellow rangers, but this fight should go down in incredibly similar fashion to his fight with Luke Rockhold, with Kennedy unable to secure a takedown and coming up short on the majority of his punches.

Bisping is being slightly undervalued here in my opinion, and at his current return is good enough to make a parlay. What? PATRIOTISM HAS NO PLACE IN THE GAMBLING SPECTRUM.

UFC on Fox 11 (April 19): Fabricio Werdum (+170) vs. Travis Browne (-200)

Jared: It’s getting more and more difficult to bet against Browne at this point in his career. The man is coming off back-to-back-to-back Knockout of the Nights, each one more violent than the last, and has twice shown that he can finish a fight while fending off a takedown. He’s also never been submitted. Werdum’s striking is ever-improving, sure, but his only chance here is to get this thing to the ground early and hope that doesn’t wake up dead whilst attempting to do so. I wouldn’t suggest a straight bet here, but the +100 prop that Browne wins inside the distance is a solid gamble.

Seth: You know, I really have to disagree/agree with Jared here: Fabricio Werdum has been on top of his game since returning to the UFC and he should OH MY GOD THAT MAN IS DEAD! TRAVIS BROWNE IS THE FUTURE, I SAYS!”

UFC 172 (April 26): Glover Teixeira (+450) vs. Jon Jones (-600)

Seth: I’m putting this fight in “Stay the Hell Away From” territory, out of sheer principle. Teixeira is a beast, there’s no question about that. But after watching him get rocked by Fabio Maldonado during the first round of that massacre, I can’t in good conscience tell you guys to bet money on him being the guy to defeat Jon Jones. As for betting on Jones? If I advised you to place a bet that would pay you $1.60 for every ten bucks you wagered, I’d never be able to drink an EXTREME SPORTS ENERGY DRINK!!!1!one!!1! again without feeling like a fraud.

Look, if you really want to bet on this fight, the under on the prop that this fight lasts three and a half rounds (currently sitting at -155) is the way to go. I’d be surprised if this one makes it out of the first round.

Jared: Not only was Teixeira rocked by Fabio Maldonado, he was rocked by Ryan Bader, a.k.a the guy who never even touched Jon Jones in their fight at UFC 126 a.k.a Tito Ortiz‘s last victory. Teixeira hits hard, but so does Alexander Gustafsson, and the Brazilian is way too flat-footed to keep up with the champ. That said, I like the +255 prop that “Bones” wins by five round decision. Why? Because Jon Jones is easily ten times more arrogant than Anderson Silva ever was (I blame the surname), and it’s only a matter of time before he has his UFC 97/UFC 112 moment.

Other Fights Worth Investing In
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sam Stout (-115) vs. KJ Noons (-105)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 26): Sarah Kaufman (-240) vs. Leslie Smith (+200)
UFC 172 (April 26): Anthony Johnson (+160) vs. Phil Davis (-185)
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Elliott (+305) vs. Joseph Benavidez (-365)

Seth: Call me crazy, but Sam Stout at -115 against KJ Noons is a downright steal, and even though their first contest was close, I fully expect Sarah Kaufman to walk away victorious against Leslie Smith again. You may want to lock in Phil Davis at -185, because I sincerely doubt he’s staying under -200 by the time fight week comes around (I’m also pretty confident he’ll win, in case it isn’t obvious). Benavidez at -365 is barely worth the risk as a parlay addition, so go ahead and lock that up before it spirals toward -500 territory.

Jared: Sam Stout couldn’t finish a Cody McKenzie in basketball shorts who might’ve been drunk at the time and has gone win-loss since 2012. Noons to win via superior boxing. And as far as parlay bets go, it would be wise to lock down Mitch Gagnon at -285 over Tim Gorman, as it’s arguably the easiest money on the TUF Nations card.

Honestly, one of the best lines I’ve seen out there is Dustin Kimura vs. George Roop-JUST HEAR ME OUT FOR A SECOND. Roop may be one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC, but when he’s on, he’s on. Listed as just a -120 favorite over Kimura, an up-and-comer with decent submission skills and an unpolished striking game, a small bet on a veteran like Roop wouldn’t be the dumbest thing you could ever do. I know, I’ll see myself out.

The Good Dogs
UFC 172 (April 26): Tim Boetsch (+650) vs. Luke Rockhold (-1000)

True story: I made $80 betting on a fighter I’ve never heard of during UFC Fight Night 38. I knew absolutely nothing about Thiago Santos, other than he was a +800 underdog (?!) against -700 favorite (?!?!) Ronny Markes (?!?!?!). “There are very few fighters who should ever be -700 favorites in the UFC,” I thought before betting ten bucks on Santos. “Ronny Markes sure as hell isn’t one of them.”

I’m using the exact same school of thought here by advising you to bet on Tim Boetsch. Luke Rockhold at -1000 is ri-goddamn-diculous.

Jared: I wholeheartedly agree with your logic here, as you’d think Rockhold was fighting a UFC newb specializing in R.I.P, not a legitimate veteran who is 6-3 in his past 9 UFC contests, based on that absolutely insane line. Tim Boetsch has shown in the past that he can pull victory from the jaws of defeat, and while I think Rockhold holds an advantage in pretty much every conceivable category here, there’s no way I’d pass up a 5 dollar wager on a gritty sumbitch like Boetsch to make 32ish back.

Stay the Hell Away From
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Kyle Noke (-105) vs. Patrick Cote (-115)
UFC TUF Nations Finale (April 16): Mark Bocek (-485) vs. Mike de la Torre (+350)

Seth: I can’t think of a single reason why Mike de la Torre has a chance at winning this fight, but then again, I also can’t think of a single reason why Mark Bocek is at -495 BOOKIES WHAT ARE YOU DOING THIS ISN’T FUNNY. As for the co-main event that at least seven people are talking about? I’ll probably make a prediction for that fight by flipping a coin while they’re touching gloves before the start of round one. Just sit these two out.

Jared: Your lack of respect for Canada’s first Jiu Jitsu black belt is upsetting, to say the least. A quick look over Bocek’s record reveals that his only losses in the past 4 years have come to top contenders and future champions, and all by way of decision. Throw in the fact that he’s facing a late-replacement opponent, a UFC newcomer, nicknamed “El Cucuy,” and you’ve got all the justification for that line you will ever need.

And that co-main event you speak of? Noke’s to lose, in my opinion. Patrick Cote may have been a one-time title challenger at 185, but his only win at welterweight was a squeaker over Bobby Voelker back in March of 2013. While Noke has been on the shelf for even longer than his Canadian counterpart, I fully expect him to utilize his long jab and mix in some takedowns en route to a UD victory.

Seth: So you’d place a straight bet on him to win?

Jared: Fuck no!

Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
Seth: $20 on Bisping+Stout+Kaufman parlay
$20 on Davis+Benavidez parlay (yes, you should lock up those odds now)
$10 on Tim Boetsch

Jared: $20 on a Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon
$20 on Davis+Benavidez+Miller
$5 on “The Barbarian”
$5 on a mega-super-buster parlay of Bisping+Kaufman+Gagnon+Noons+Roop

Jon Jones Opens as -400 Favorite in Future Rematch With Alexander Gustafsson


(Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Three months before their title fight at UFC 165, Jon Jones opened up as a massive -800 favorite against Alexander Gustafsson, who was slated as a +500 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers felt that Jones/Gustafsson would be an even bigger squash match than Jones/Sonnen. Of course, this was back when everybody assumed that Bones could walk through the Swedish challenger with no trouble whatsoever. As it turned out, Gustafsson was the toughest test of Jones’s career, and might have stolen the belt if he hadn’t started to fade in the championship rounds.

We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)

And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?

In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.


(Photo via Esther Lin/MMAFighting)

Three months before their title fight at UFC 165, Jon Jones opened up as a massive -800 favorite against Alexander Gustafsson, who was slated as a +500 underdog. In other words, the oddsmakers felt that Jones/Gustafsson would be an even bigger squash match than Jones/Sonnen. Of course, this was back when everybody assumed that Bones could walk through the Swedish challenger with no trouble whatsoever. As it turned out, Gustafsson was the toughest test of Jones’s career, and might have stolen the belt if he hadn’t started to fade in the championship rounds.

We’re still not certain when Jones and Gustafsson will meet up for an encore performance, but that shouldn’t stop you from betting on the hypothetical fight. The opening line for Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 was recently released, establishing Jones as a still-hefty -400 favorite, compared to a +300 mark for Gustafsson. Since then, the line has slightly widened out, suggesting that the early money is coming in on Jones. (i.e., the oddsmakers are making Jones less profitable and Gustafsson more profitable, in an attempt to lure more wagers in Gustafsson’s direction.)

And why wouldn’t people be betting on Jones? Gustafsson may have made the champ look vulnerable during their five-round war, but the reality is that Gustafsson still wasn’t able to come away with a victory, despite putting in the greatest performance of his career. So if you were thinking of laying some cash on Gus in the rematch, here’s what you need to ask yourself: Does it really makes sense to wager on Gustafsson now that he’s significantly less profitable than he was for the first fight? Do you expect Gustafsson to do even better against Jones the second time? Really? Why?

In my opinion, the only logical reason for betting on Gustafsson in the rematch is that the fight could easily turn into another evenly-matched five-round war of attrition — and when a fight like that goes to the judges, you might as well be flipping a coin.

UFC 162 Betting Odds: Anderson Silva Opens as Just a 2-to-1 Favorite (!!!!) Over Chris Weidman [UPDATED]

(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.) 

I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed as anything less than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.

Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs (+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.

[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.

Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.

I apologize for wasting your time.

–J. Jones


(If 10 cc’s of Desflurane can’t keep this kid down, NOTHING CAN.) 

I was there. I was there the last time Anderson Silva was listed as anything less than a 3-to-1 favorite over his opponent. It was called 2011. Barack Obama was President, George W. Bush was in the White House, and Bill Clinton was running this country into the ground. The event was UFC 126, which was being held in a little hole in the wall town in what is now Nevada. Some fella by the name of Vitor shows up, starts picking off so-called “former middleweight champions.” Before we knew what hit us, he was trying to dethrone old Andy in our own backyard. So Vitor had to go.

Now this fella by the name of Weidman storms into town, flashing them dimes like a big shot and making noise, and wouldn’t you know it, he’s currently listed as one of the smallest underdogs (+165) Anderson has faced in his entire UFC career. It’s a load of claptrap if you ask me; this Weidman feller hasn’t fought in almost a year and is coming off shoulder surgery to boot. But if history is any indication, a moderately-favored Anderson Silva is the most dangerous Anderson Silva. Be careful what you wish for, Weidman. Be careful. What. You. Wish. For.

[UPDATED] – 4 p.m.

Well, that was a lot of buildup for nothing. In the hours since this was originally written, Anderson has already improved to just under a 3-to-1 favorite. Still, it seems that the bookies are giving Weidman’s grappling prowess a lot of respect all things considered.

I apologize for wasting your time.

–J. Jones

UFC 146 Odds: Dos Santos Favored Heavily Against Veteran Mir

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout.

Junior dos Santos will look to defend his UFC heavyweight belt for the first time this weekend as he lines up against former champion Frank Mir at UFC 146. Get MMA odds for the bout before the action unfolds in Las Vegas.

Bet on UFC 146 with Bovada’s online sportsbook.
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Although Mir’s UFC odds (+350) may intrigue bettors given his experience as a fighter and specifically as a UFC heavyweight title winner, there’s no denying that the younger dos Santos is the -500 favorite for a reason.

Not only has dos Santos gone unbeaten in UFC bouts since his debut in 2008, his distinct skill set lines up with one of Mir’s greatest vulnerabilities. In each of his five career losses, Mir has fallen to punches, most recently by Shane Carwin at UFC 111.

Will dos Santos, well-known as an elite-level boxer in the octagon, be able to strike his way to an early victory? Given the momentum he’s established over the course of the past few years it’s hard to see why not.

Of course, if the two end up on the ground and Mir’s experience comes into play, we may very well see the start of a surprising new reign for the MMA veteran.

Bet on UFC 146 today.
Step Into The Cage.

UFC on Fuel TV 3 – The Crisper’s Betting Recap

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results: TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like.

Man that Korean Zombie really f’d up what was looking like a great betting night in the UFC. Here is a recap of the bets and results:

TJ Grant (-460) – This one was like takin candy from a baby ….Grant took control from the onset and dominated all phases. It’s nice when you’re laying so much to never really feel nervous at any point during the fight. PUT ONE IN THE COOKIE JAR!….. + 1 unit.

Donald Cerrone (-250)– Cowboy uses his reach advantage to completely outclass a good fighter in Lil Heathen Stephens. Stephens couldn’t even play dead in a western on this night. He had no chance and Cerrone never let him breath, give the Crisper another one!…… + 2 units.

Jorge Lopez (+110) – Just read Alan Wells’ recap on this fight in UFC on Fuel Random Thoughts. We got SCREWED by the judges and I am none to happy about it. Cost us money. Bullshit. Anyway….take a half a unit and stick it up the judges asses……+1.5 units

Dustin Poirier (-325) – All I can say is, when you lay on a big favorite and he gets his ass kicked, for the betting man it feels like getting your nuts kicked in. Korean Zombie took it to our boy, and there was really never a doubt. It looked like Poirier started to turn a corner in the 3rd by establishing his jab, but Zombie turned the tables and finished him off. That result completely ruined our night giving back 3.25 units……-1.75 units

This brings our total on posted picks to -1.025 units. Check back this weekend for Crisper Picks on Strikeforce Saturday night May 19th!

UFC on Fuel TV 3- Pre Fight Analysis Part III (Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2) Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale.

Amir Sadollah (5-3) vs Jorge Lopez (11-2)

Amir Sadollah is well-known to MMA fans from his surprising run to win season seven of the The Ultimate Fighter. His win over C.B. Dolloway in the finale was his first professional fight and all eight of his fights have come in the UFC. Since his win, he has struggled with injuries and lost every time he has been given a chance to step up in competition. No one would ever accuse the UFC of poor marketing strategy and they do a great job of getting the most out of the fighters who win on their reality show. Call it loyalty or call it branding but TUF winners generally stick around in the UFC. But another loss and an overall record of five wins and four losses would make it difficult for the UFC to continue giving Sadollah fights with so much talent on the roster at 170 pounds.

Enter Jorge Lopez. Lopez was not overly impressive in his first UFC fight though he did show some improvement toward the end of the fight. He doesn’t offer anything outstanding to trouble Sadollah and Sadollah should have the advantage everywhere in this fight. He has the ability to submit Lopez if Lopez takes him down and he’ll have an advantage standing that will be accentuated in the clinch. Sadollah’s knees are his most effective strikes and he will look to clinch with Lopez and unleash from there.

Sadollah is favored in the books at -200 with Lopez coming in at +160. Sadollah should be able to win this fight and a win would maintain his status as a viable commodity in the UFC. He should be looking to finish the fight and not just coast to a decision. A finish or at least a dominant decision would be a nice step in the right direction and could be a sign that he has fully recovered from all his injuries and is ready to fulfill the potential he showed when he originally burst onto the MMA scene.

Yves Jabouin (17-7) vs. Jeff Hougland (10-4)

This fight will feature a traditional MMA script. Jabouin is the striker with a well-rounded muay thai attack and he will do his best to keep the fight on the feet. Hougland is the grappler whose striking will serve solely to keep Jabouin honest and set up takedown attempts. On the surface, this looks like a bit of a mismatch with Jabouin being a clear favorite. But all of Hougland’s losses came in his first five fights and he won his UFC debut in a solid if not exciting decision over Donny Walker.

Jabouin has not achieved the level of success some predicted when he first entered the WEC. His muay thai is on point technically but he has not shown an ability to finish high level competition. He has split his last six fights and won his last two via split decision. His most recent fight against Wilel Watson was especially close and could have easily been scored a loss. If he wants to take the next step and be considered a major threat in the 135 pound division, he needs to make a statement against Hougland.

But it won’t be easy as Hougland will come in looking to increase his status and earn a huge victory for his career. To step up and take a fight as a replacement and earn a victory would certainly be impressive. To do that, he will need to get the fight to the ground. If he does, he has the submission skill to finish the fight. Jabouin has good balance and takedown defense but he can be dragged to the mat. Whether or not Hougland will be able to do so could be the determining factor in the fight.

Jabouin is heavily favored at -280 with Hougland at +220. One would have a difficult time finding someone willing to pick Hougland and I won’t go that far but Jabouin has not been overly impressive in his last few fights. Because of that, Jabouin should come out and look to finish a technically overmatched opponent in the first round. But if he is overconfident or finds himself playing the submission game with Hougland, we could see an upset. That said, I expect Jabouin to do his job and
dispatch Hougland quickly and impressively.

-Alan Wells