Tag: UFC betting

Strikeforce Light Heavyweight bout:  Muhammed Lawal vs. Roger Gracie

Odds:  (-160 Lawal /+130 Gracie )

Betting Pick:  Gracie

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In a very intriguing Light Heavyweight matchup, former champion Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal will face off against undefeated submission phenom Roger Gracie. Lawal is clearly the more complete Mixed Martial Artist of the two, but Gracie is perhaps the most decorated submission grappler ever to compete in Mixed Martial Arts. Lawal is an accomplished wrestler, and vastly more effective in the standup, but if he gives up a single takedown to Gracie he is going to find himself in a lot of trouble, so this is the kind of fight where you don’t want to miss a second of the action.

Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal started his career on a seven-fight winning streak before having his undefeated record and his title both taken by Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante in his last fight. Lawal is a heavy-handed and aggressive boxer with very good wrestling and ground and pound. He is very good at securing takedowns, but he had some serious problems holding Cavalcante down and keeping him from escaping. Still, he is a dangerous fighter from top position with very powerful ground and pound. Against Gracie he would be pretty foolish to go for takedowns, because Gracie is lethal on the ground. King Mo will enjoy a huge advantage in striking technique and punching power, so as long as he concentrates on using his wrestling defensively and keeping this fight standing as much as possible.

Roger Gracie is easily one of the most prolific submission grapplers in the world. He is a long way from having a complete game, though, especially in terms of his striking technique. He once famously quipped, “If I ever knock someone out, it will be on accident.” Gracie sticks to what he knows, and what he knows is takedowns and submissions. Lawal is almost definitely the better wrestler, but he is not going to work well off his back at all, so Gracie might only need one takedown to win this. Gracie’s ability to work off his back is also going to confound Lawal, who has never had to deal with anything like Gracie’s submissions.

I think Gracie is going to be very difficult to deal with. His submissions, sweeps, and escapes are just insane, and Lawal is a guy most comfortable working on the ground from top position. I think Lawal will try to make this a standup fight, and eventually Gracie will find a way to trip him or take him down. On the ground, with Lawal on his back, Gracie will easily overwhelm him. Gracie by submission.

Prediction:  Roger Gracie via first round rear naked choke.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami

Odds:  (-625 Silva / +425 Okami )

Betting Pick:  Okami

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In the main event of the evening, long-time top contender Yushin “Thunder” Okami gets his long-awaited shot at Middleweight champion Anderson “Spider” Silva. Silva is obviously the most dominant champion in the entire sport, riding a record-breaking string of title defenses, but Okami is the sort of fighter who is stylistically capable of putting him at a disadvantage. If there is a hole in Silva’s game it is his takedown defense, and Okami is more than capable of testing his wrestling and putting him on his back like Chael Sonnen did. Obviously, Silva’s striking is utterly devastating, but the last thing he wants is another fight like the one he had against Chael Sonnen, where he was physically dominated for four and a half rounds.

Yushin Okami has been considered one of the top Middleweight contenders for a few years now, but a variety of issues have kept him from recieving his rightful shot at the title. In his last fight, Okami completely dominated highly-regarded opponent Nate “The Great” Marquardt, proving emphatically that he is ready for a shot at Silva. Okami’s offense is extremely versatile. He is a great wrestler with dominant takedowns and punishing ground and pound, but he also has fairly heavy-handed and technical boxing. Against Silva that is going to be huge, because he has the wrestling to force Silva off his game and enough boxing that he can hold his own, maybe even surprise Silva with some jabs, and do enough standing that he doesn’t have to telegraph his takedowns. Silva has shown time and again that he can be taken down and controlled. What makes Okami such a dangerous opponent for Silva is that he can not only put Silva on his back, he can defend effectively against submissions inside Silva’s guard.

Anderson Silva’s striking would be impossible to overhype. His technique is flawless, he has knockout power with punches, kicks, and knees, and he is unparalleled at controlling opponents in the clinch and destroying them. What makes Silva so dangerous is that he has solid technique and power, but he punctuates his offense with creative strikes that seem to come out of nowhere and are extremely difficult to defend against. On the feet, Silva can be hit, but he will eventually destroy anyone who can’t force a fight to the ground. The only hole in Silva’s game is his takedown defense and escapes on the ground. Any competent wrestler, a billing Okami certainly fits, is not going to have a huge amount of trouble securing takedowns. Off his back, Silva has dangerous submissions, but his ability to fight for position and escape from bottom position is lacking.

Silva is the most dominant Middleweight of all time, but I think Okami is a terrible matchup for him. Chael Sonnen, who Okami trains with, not only planted Silva on his back for the vast majority of the fight and destroyed him with ground and pound, he actually got a lot of fairly hard shots in on the feet by taking the fight to Silva. Okami is more than capable of executing the same game plan, with his stiff jabs and great wrestling. The only real difference is that, unlike Sonnen, Okami has solid submission defense to round out his game. I think this fight has all the makings of an upset, and expect Okami to control the fight with takedowns and ground and pound for the unanimous decision.

Prediction:  Yushin “Thunder” Okami via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout: Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin

Odds:  (-280 Rua /+220 Griffin )

Betting Pick:  Rua

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The semi-main event is a highly anticipated rematch between former Light Heavyweight champions Forrest Griffin and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The first time these two met, Griffin shocked the world by controlling a large portion of the action and eventually forcing Shogun to submit to a rear naked choke. Shogun has looked more like his old self since then, despite a loss to Jon Jones in his last outing. This has all the makings of a very competitive bout, pitting Shogun’s dominant striking against Griffin’s well-rounded and underrated game.

Forrest Griffin is a huge success story, having parlayed a spot on the original season of The Ultimate Fighter all the way to a reign as Light Heavyweight champion. What is spectacular about Griffin is that, on paper, he doesn’t seem to have that impressive a skill set. His boxing is solid but not hugely powerful and his wrestling is solid but hardly world-class. Griffin has carved out his success through sheer will. Griffin has a ton of heart, great cardio, and a fairly solid chin. He also has a very underrated ground game, with relatively effective submissions and good positioning. Griffin can’t take a fight over with his offense consistently, but he can compete anywhere a fight goes and he never stops coming forward, which makes him an extremely dangerous opponent.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has been one of the most dominant Light Heavyweights in the world for years. His striking is superlative, with very powerful boxing, dangerous kicks, and crushing Muay Thai in the clinch. On the ground, he has good submissions, but his takedown defense is not very good and he is not very effective working off his back. Against Griffin he is going to want to try and keep this fight standing, because Griffin always submitted him once and is the larger and stronger fighter.

This is a tough match to call. There is no question that Shogun is the superior striker, with better technique and more knockout power. Griffin is the better wrestler, and showed in their last fight that he can take Shogun down and control him on the ground. In the end, though, I think Shogun will even the score with Griffin. Griffin likes to stand and trade, and tends to throw caution to the wind, and I don’t think he has enough offense to stop an injury-free Shogun. I think Shogun will handily win the striking exchanges and do enough to earn a unanimous decision win.

Prediction:  Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via Unanimous Decision.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Noguera

Odds:  (-250 Schaub /+195 Nogueira )

Betting Pick:  Schaub

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In a featured Heavyweight bout, living legend Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira will square off against rising star Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub. Nogueira is a legend in the sport who has fought most of the best Heavyweights in the world, but years of brutal battles seem to have finally taken their toll on him physically. Schaub, for his part, is a ridiculous physical specimen, but lacks Nogueira’s experience. If Schaub wins, this very well might be the last time Nogueira ever fights in UFC, so if he wants to keep hold of his career, Nogueira is going to need to find a way to force this fight to the ground and work for submissions.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is easily one of the most legendary Heavyweights in the sport’s history. At his prime, Nogueira was renowned for his ability to weather storms before finding an opening and securing a submission. Now, though, it seems that all those brutal wars and all the years as a professional fighter have caught up with him. His submission skills are just as dangerous as they ever were, but he was never a prolific wrestler and his chin seems to have deteriorated. His boxing is fairly technically solid, but he has basically zero knockout power. More importantly, he has degenerating defense and can’t force fights to the ground. Against Schaub he might even need to resort to pulling guard just to avoid standing in front of power punches.

Brendan Schaub is one of the rising stars of the Heavyweight division. A massive, powerful Heavyweight with a huge surplus of punching power and solid wrestling, Schaub has all the tools to make it all the way to the top. The only question mark about Schaub is his chin, which was exploited by Roy Nelson in spectacular fashion, but against Nogueira he won’t have to worry about getting knocked out. Schaub’s strategy will be simple. He will try to deny Nogueira takedowns and overwhelm him with punches.

This is a horrible matchup for Nogueira. Schaub is not only significantly larger and stronger, he is a good enough wrestler to keep Nogueira from taking him down. On the feet, Nogueira has nothing for Schaub, and eventually Schaub will start connecting with power punches. Nogueira will only be able to take so many before he inevitably succumbs. Schaub by T/KO.

Prediction:  Brendan Schaub via second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…