Tag: UFC betting

Here are my UFC 132 Fight Predictions. I have put together full write ups for the Main Card and Quick Picks for the Prelims. Be sure to Visit our Fight Information Page.

Urijah Faber over Dominick Cruz via fourth round rear naked choke. @+135 Odds

• Faber vs. Cruz Prediction Page

Chris Leben over Wanderlei Silva via second round T/KO. @+145 Odds

• Leben vs. Silva Prediction page

Ryan Bader over Tito Ortiz via third round T/KO.

• Bader vs. Ortiz Prediction Page

Carlos Condit over Dong Hyun Kim via Unanimous Decision. @-120 Odds

• Condit vs. Kim Prediction Page

Dennis Siver over Matt Wiman via Unanimous Decision.

• Siver vs. Wiman Prediction Page

 

Preliminary Card Quick Picks

 

• George Sotiropoulos over Rafeal Dos Anjos via Unanimous Decision.
• Brad Tavares over Aaron Simpson via Decision. @+215 Odds
• Brian Bowles over Takeya Mizugaki via second round sub.
• Melvin Guillard over Shane Roller via third round T/KO.
• Jeff Hougland over Donny Walker via Decision. @+160 Odds
• Anthony Njokuani over Andre Winner via second round KO.

UFC Bantamweight Championship bout:  Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber

Odds:  (-165 Cruz / +135 Faber )

Betting Pick:  Faber

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the main event of the evening, Bantamweight king Dominick Cruz will look to retain his title and avenge the only loss of his professional career against “The California Kid” Urijah Faber. When these two first met, in 2007, Faber choked Cruz out with a guillotine not even two minutes into the fight. Since then, though, Cruz has grown into an extremely dominant and well-rounded fighter while Faber has hit a few bumps in the road, and both guys have found homes in a new weight class. Still, Faber is one of the toughest guys in the world and is more than capable of finishing Cruz again, so this should be a very competitive main event.

For years, Urijah Faber was the most dominant fighter in the world at 145 pounds, but two brutal losses to Mike Thomas Brown and a crushing at the hands of current kingpin Jose Aldo sent him moving down to Bantamweight. Now he has a chance to become a two-division champion if he can replicate his dominant performance from 2007. Faber is extremely well-rounded, with effective and powerful striking, solid wrestling, and top-notch submissions. He has already proven that he has the submission prowess to finish Cruz, but Cruz has become very good at taking opponents off their game and neutralizing their offense, so Faber is going to need to be aggressive and try to impose his gameplan from beginning to end if he wants to capture his second belt.

Dominick Cruz is not always the most enjoyable fighter in the world to watch, but there is no denying his effectiveness. Cruz is an enigma in that he isn’t really dominant at any one thing, but he is pretty good at everything and has an uncanny ability to throw his opponents off, keep them from mounting an effective offense, and do enough to score points and secure decision wins. Cruz’s biggest problem is that he is not a very prolific finisher and he rarely if ever dominates the action in his fights. He is extremely effective and an accomplished winner, but he lacks the ability to control opponents and allows them to hang around the entire fight, which can cause problems against prolific finishers.

It seems unlikely that Faber will finish Cruz in 90 seconds like he did the first time, but I still think this is a great matchup for him. Faber is very aggressive and can finish fights standing and on the ground, which makes him the perfect foil for Cruz’s more conservative, point-scoring style. Cruz’s biggest strength is his ability to draw opponents into his game, but Faber’s constant aggression and forward movement, coupled with his superior wrestling and submission game, should allow him to keep Cruz from dragging him into an offensive rut. I think Faber will wear Cruz down by landing shots, putting him on his back, and threatening with submissions before capitalizing in the later rounds. Faber by submission.

Prediction:  Urijah “The California Kid” via fourth round rear naked choke.

• Bet on the UnderDog Faber @+123 for the Win.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC  Middleweight bout:  Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben

Odds:  (-175 Silva /+145 Leben )

Betting Pick:  Leben

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

The semi-main event has all the makings of an instant classic, as Chris “The Crippler” Leben will square off against living legend Wanderlei “The Axe Murderer” Silva in a Middleweight showdown fans have been clamoring for ever since Silva’s debut. Both of these guys are known for their destructive punching and their willingness to stand in the pocket and let their hands go, so this is a fight that promises a lot of exciting action. Silva’s best years are definitely behind him, but he is still a dangerous fighter with a surplus of punching power, and Leben is going to have his hands full here.

Wanderlei Silva came by his nickname, “The Axe Murderer”, honestly. Silva’s PRIDE career provided some of the most brutal highlight reel knockouts in the history of the sport. Unfortunately for UFC fans, Silva did not make his way back to America until he was past his prime, and his UFC career has fallen far short of the brilliance he showed in Japan. Having dropped five of his last seven fights, Silva is clearly in the midst of a sharp decline, but he is still a very exciting fighter who possesses the technical acumen and killer instinct that made him famous. Even having lost a step, Silva is not a pushover fight for anyone in the UFC, and his Muay Thai and boxing are still extremely formidable, as he showed in his last fight, a clear-cut unanimous decision over highly-regarded contender Michael “The Count” Bisping.

Chris “The Crippler” Leben, whose bad guy persona helped make the first season of The Ultimate Fighter such a huge hit, has proven that he is a lot more than a big personality. One of the UFC’s most exciting fighters, Leben has extremely powerful striking, an underrated ground game, and one of the most aggressive fighting styles in the sport. Leben is one of the toughest fighters on the planet, and he is more than willing to eat repeated hard shots in order to move forward and throw haymakers at his opponents. He is not the most technically proficient striker in the world, but he has a very solid chin and an insane amount of heart to go with extremely heavy hands. Leben’s best attribute is his tenacity. Win or lose, you can bet that he is going to show up ready to fight and put on a show.

In his prime, Wanderlei would have made Leben pay dearly for daring to trade shots with him and keep moving forward, but I think those days are unfortunately gone. Silva lacks the speed and power that defined him for so long, and I think that this Silva may just wilt in the face of Leben’s aggression. Both of these guys can still throw hard punches, and both of them are capable of being knocked out, so it is a safe bet that this fight won’t make it to the final bell. I think that Leben is just younger, fresher, and at this point the more powerful striker. He will send Silva out with an exciting fight and a loss. Leben by T/KO.

Prediction:  Chris “The Crippler” Leben via second round T/KO.

• Bet on Leben here @+145.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC Light Heavyweight bout:  Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader

Odds:  (-575 Ortiz /+375 Bader )

Betting Pick:  Bader

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the third bout of the evening, future Hall of Famer “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz will square off against heavy-handed wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Tito helped lay the groundwork for dominant wrestlers in the UFC with his ground and pound style and effective grappling, but injuries have hampered him greatly over the last five or six years. Bader, for his part, is in full health and right in the middle of his athletic prime, not to mention that he has the kind of wrestling that is going to make it very difficult for Tito to impose his game plan. This is going to be a stern test for Ortiz in every way.

Ryan “Darth” Bader is an extremely tough and heavy-handed wrestler who is coming off the first loss of his professional career, a drubbing at the hands of Light Heavyweight champion Jon “Bones” Jones. Despite his inability to deal with Jones, Bader’s mixture of powerful clinch work, dynamic takedowns, ground and pound, and powerful boxing make him an extremely formidable opponent for anyone in the division. Bader is far more effective in the striking than most guys with wrestling of his caliber, and he has both great punching power and very solid boxing technique. His submission game isn’t as good as the rest of his offense, but he is hardly lost on the ground, and he is very effective at maintaining top position and dealing damage with strikes from on top of his opponents.

“The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” Tito Ortiz is a true UFC legend. For years, his unique blend of wrestling, ground and pound, and submission prowess ruled the Light Heavyweight division. In recent years, though, a combination of the sport evolving and career-hampering injuries have made Tito’s greatness something of an afterthought. Despite repeated claims that his back is 100% again, his spinal injuries have severely limited his ability to change levels for takedowns, which takes away a huge part of his game. His striking has never really moved past the rudimentary phase, and despite his submission prowess he is not very effective off his back, so his trouble securing takedowns has almost made him a non-factor at this point.

Tito is done, and has been for years, although he seems to be the last person to realize it. Bader is, at this point, a substantially better wrestler and vastly more effective on the feet. Tito will have to telegraph takedown attempts, which Bader will stuff with ease. On the feet Ortiz is going to get boxed around badly, and I doubt he will be able to stand up with Bader for three full rounds. Bader by T/KO.

Prediction:  Ryan “Darth” Bader via third round T/KO.

• Take Bader in your parlay Bet.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…

UFC  Welterweight bout:  Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Odds:  (-120 Condit /-110 Hyun Kim )

Betting Pick:  Condit

Bet on this fight at Bodog.com

In the second bout of the evening, undefeated Korean standoung Dong Hyn “Stun Gun” Kim faces his toughest challenge yet in the form of “The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit. Kim is a very effective grappler with great takedowns from inside the clinch who is great at shutting down his opponents’ offense, but Condit is one of the most dangerous and versatile finishers in the Welterweight division, so Kim is going to need the best performance of his career if he wants to keep his unblemished record intact.

Dong Hyun Kim is an extremely effective grappler with solid boxing who has thusfar never lost a fight as a professional. He has decent traditional wrestling, but where he really shines is with his judo-style throws from the clinch. He uses the clinch very effectively, not only to set up takedowns but to neutralize his opponents in the striking game. When he fought in Japan, he was something of a knockout artist, but he has only managed to finish one fight thusfar in his UFC career. He relies on grappling and positional control to shut his opponents down and keep them from mounting an offense. Against Condit, he is going to have his hands full, because Condit is a very accomplished ground fighter who can finish fights anywhere they go, so Kim is going to need to fight mistake-free if he wants to employ his usual style of dominating position to score points.

“The Natural Born Killer” Carlos Condit, who fights out of Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, New Mexico, is one of the Welterweight division’s most prolific finishers. He has always been an extremely effective submission artist, but he has also developed into a dangerous knockout puncher as well. His boxing is quick, accurate, technical, and powerful. In addition, he sets up his submission attack with effective wrestling and, like of all Greg Jackson’s fighters, always comes into his bouts with a great game plan. There are few fighters in the division with skill sets as versatile as Condit’s, and even fewer who have his ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground.

This has all the makings of an extremely competitive bout. Both of these guys have very well-rounded skill sets and a lot of experience against good competition. In the end, though, I think that Condit is the more dangerous of the two. Kim has the skills to get him to the ground occasionally, but Condit is extremely slick even off his back, and Condit is the more powerful and effective striker. I think this should be a close, competitive bout, but Condit should be able to do enough to earn the unanimous decision in the end.

Prediction:  Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit via Unanimous Decision.

• Bet on Condit here @-125 and add him to a parlay bet.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds.   Check out my review of Bodog here…