UFC Fight Night 27 Main Card Staff Predictions

For the second time in its illustrious two-week history, Fox Sports 1 hosts a UFC main card when the curtain goes up Wednesday on UFC Fight Night 27.
As such, this one’s certain to be dissected for decades to come in journalism labs around the nation a…

For the second time in its illustrious two-week history, Fox Sports 1 hosts a UFC main card when the curtain goes up Wednesday on UFC Fight Night 27.

As such, this one’s certain to be dissected for decades to come in journalism labs around the nation and world. But for us workaday MMA fans and writers, well, we’re more focused on the main event, a rematch between violent welterweights Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann. They originally fought in 2009, and Kampmann took a thin split decision.

But there is intrigue to be found in each and every one of the six fights that fans can see for free on FS1 Wednesday night. What is that intrigue? Who’s going to win? Our staff experts here at Bleacher Report are here to help you sort it out. Riley “Kobra” Kontek. James “The Athlete” MacDonald. Sean “The Salmon” Smith. Craig “Famous” Amos. And myself, Scott Harris. Let’s get it on.

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UFC Fight Night 27: Who’s on the Hot Seat

The second UFC event on the Fox Sports 1 network, UFC Fight Night 27, will go down Wednesday, and several fighters will once again put their livelihoods on the line.
Some will enter the Octagon desperate for a win because of recent misfortunes. Others …

The second UFC event on the Fox Sports 1 network, UFC Fight Night 27, will go down Wednesday, and several fighters will once again put their livelihoods on the line.

Some will enter the Octagon desperate for a win because of recent misfortunes. Others will make the march in an extra-nervous state because of an extraordinary opportunity.

Of the 24 fighters set to roll at UFC Fight Night 27, here are the six who will be under the most pressure.

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The Real Journey Begins for Kelvin Gastelum at UFC Fight Night 27

Winning The Ultimate Fighter was a huge feather in Kelvin Gastelum’s cap, but the real journey will begin on Wednesday night at UFC Fight Night 27.
The 21-year-old Team Reign fighter fought his way into the spotlight by winning the 17th season of the r…

Winning The Ultimate Fighter was a huge feather in Kelvin Gastelum‘s cap, but the real journey will begin on Wednesday night at UFC Fight Night 27.

The 21-year-old Team Reign fighter fought his way into the spotlight by winning the 17th season of the reality program, but the tournament was simply a primer to the real challenges ahead. Gastelum will jump headlong into the UFC fold when he faces Strikeforce crossover Brian Melancon in Indianapolis, and he will do so at a brand new weight of 170 pounds.

While his win over the highly touted Uriah Hall at the TUF finale in April was technically Gastelum‘s official UFC debut, his bout against Melancon will be his first step into the deep ranks of the ultra-competitive welterweight division.

To ensure he was prepared for the challenges ahead, Gastelum switched his training camp to work with Mark Munoz and Co. in Orange County and enlisted the services of nutritional guru Mike Dolce to assist with his cut down to a lower weight class.

Gastelum feels every aspect of the transition has been a smooth process and he’s excited to begin the next chapter of his career at UFC Fight Night 27.

“I feel a little bit of pressure,” Gastelum told Bleacher Report. “Coming off the show and winning the show, people have expectations for me to do good, but it doesn’t make a difference to me. I put that same pressure every single fight. I expect nothing but to win. I came into my last fight as the underdog, but this time I am the favorite and people are expecting me to win. There is pressure, but it is a good pressure. It keeps me focused and on track. 

“My goal is to one day for fight for a title, but I’m going to take it one fight at a time. I’m going to be a company man and do what the UFC asks me to do. I’m young and I still have a long future ahead of me. [TUF] was a milestone I wanted to accomplish—and it was good—but it was just one accomplishment in my career and I want to do this for a long time.

“Brian beat a really tough guy in his last fight,” he added about his upcoming tilt. “He beat Seth [Baczynski] and he’s a tough guy. I’ve trained with Seth before and he made him look really bad in their fight. He is on a three-fight win streak and his fighting style is similar to mine. He likes to brawl and it’s going to be a good fight.”  

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist at Bleacher Report. All quotes were obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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UFC Fight Night 27 Predictions You Can Take to the Bank

The Fox Sports 1 era has begun.
The UFC’s initial offering on the world’s latest all-sports network was an unqualified success, filled to overflowing with great fights and big moments. The ratings for the event outperformed even the highest expectation…

The Fox Sports 1 era has begun.

The UFC’s initial offering on the world’s latest all-sports network was an unqualified success, filled to overflowing with great fights and big moments. The ratings for the event outperformed even the highest expectations, and the numbers cemented the UFC as one of the biggest draws for the new network.

In fact, it’s not even close; the initial UFC on FS 1 event outperformed most episodes of Crowd Goes Wilda sports discussion show helmed by Regis Philbinby over 10 to one

With that said, I have no expectations that regular UFC on FS 1 events will pull anything close to that number. The first installment was a stacked show nearly worthy of pay-per-view status. We should not expect the same sort of status for Fox Sports 1 events going forward.

But we’re still looking forward to a very good (at least from a fight perspective) second Fox Sports 1 event on Saturday night. It’s headlined by a rematch of a fantastic bout from 2009, when Martin Kampmann scored a controversial split decision win over Carlos Condit, and the rest of the card is full of intriguing style matchups.

At the top of each slide, you’ll find the current odds (via BetDSI), market percentage (the betting odds translated to percentages; this number tells you what kind of chance the market is currently giving each fighter to win) and my own percentages. 

By breaking down the odds in this fashion, we can determine if the current market percentage matches up with our own. We’re looking for value in the numbers. If the market believes Fighter A has a 40 percent chance of winning the fight, but we believe Fighter A has a 65 percent chance to win, then we’re seeing value in the numbers.

Eagle-eyed investors (a much nicer word for “degenerate gamblers”) will want to keep an eye out for those moments when the market percentage differs greatly from your own. I typically look for a difference of at least plus-20 percent when handicapping fights. Ideally, I like to see plus-25 percent or greater.

If you’re the gambling type, let me know what you think of my analysis in the comments below. And if you think I’ve missed anything, feel free to add it below as well. 

Let’s get started.

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UFC Fight Night 27: Preliminary Card Predictions

Just 11 days removed from its first show on the network (UFC Fight Night 26), the UFC will attempt to put on another captivating event on Fox Sports 1 when it hosts UFC Fight Night 27 on Wednesday, August 28.
The main card consists of six juicy matchup…

Just 11 days removed from its first show on the network (UFC Fight Night 26), the UFC will attempt to put on another captivating event on Fox Sports 1 when it hosts UFC Fight Night 27 on Wednesday, August 28.

The main card consists of six juicy matchups, including an intriguing and pivotal rematch between welterweights Carlos Condit (No. 2) and Martin Kampmann (No. 6) in the night’s main event. 

Not to be overshadowed by the main card, the preliminary card will also provide fans with enthralling bouts, including Hatsu Hioki-Darren Elkins and Jason High-James Head.

Here are my predictions for the six preliminary scraps on tap for UFC Fight Night 27.

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UFC Fight Night 27 Weigh-In Results: Condit vs. Kampmann II Fight Card

UFC Fight Night 27 comes to you this week on Wednesday, August 28, from Indianapolis, Ind. Headlined by a rematch between Martin Kampmann and Carlos Condit, a great night of fights is expected, as the card is stacked with up-and-coming talent from top …

UFC Fight Night 27 comes to you this week on Wednesday, August 28, from Indianapolis, Ind. Headlined by a rematch between Martin Kampmann and Carlos Condit, a great night of fights is expected, as the card is stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.

Check back here for the full weigh-in results, which will come in at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

 

Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

  • Carlos Condit () vs. Martin Kampmann ()
  • Donald Cerrone () vs. Rafael dos Anjos ()
  • Kelvin Gastelum () vs. Brian Melancon ()
  • Erik Perez () vs. Takeya Mizugaki ()
  • Court McGee () vs. Robert Whittaker ()
  • Brad Tavares () vs. Robert McDaniel ()

 

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 2)

  • Dylan Andrews () vs. Papy Abedi ()
  • Justin Edwards () vs. Brandon Thatch ()
  • Darren Elkins () vs. Hatsu Hioki ()
  • James Head () vs. Jason High ()

 

Preliminary Card (Facebook)

  • Zak Cummings () vs. Ben Alloway ()
  • Roger Bowling () vs. Abel Trujillo ()

 

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