UFC Fight Night 30: Preliminary Card Predictions

The UFC returns to free TV this weekend, as UFC Fight Night 30 comes to you early from Manchester, England. With the prelims starting at 12 ET, fans can enjoy a full afternoon of fights that promise to be fun.
The show is headlined by former light heav…

The UFC returns to free TV this weekend, as UFC Fight Night 30 comes to you early from Manchester, England. With the prelims starting at 12 ET, fans can enjoy a full afternoon of fights that promise to be fun.

The show is headlined by former light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz, who was originally supposed to face Michael Bisping. This is Machida‘s debut at middleweight, and he hopes to make a run at the title in his new weight class.

Before the main card, we get the prelims. Here are the predictions for those fights.

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UFC Fight Night 30 in Manchester: Machida vs. Munoz Fight Card, TV Info and More

What the UFC Fight Night 30 card may lack in star power, it could make up for in hard-hitting action. On Saturday, Oct. 26 in Manchester, England, Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Mark Munoz headlin…

What the UFC Fight Night 30 card may lack in star power, it could make up for in hard-hitting action. On Saturday, Oct. 26 in Manchester, England, Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Mark Munoz headline an intriguing card.

Machida and Munoz will do battle at 185 pounds, which represents a step down in weight class for Machida. The Dragon suffered a controversial loss to “Mr. Wonderful” Phil Davis in his last fight at 205 pounds. Rather than fall back in the rankings at light heavyweight, he chose to pursue a title at middleweight.

Munoz had been on a tear before current middleweight champion Chris Weidman stopped him in July 2012. Still, Munoz has won three of his last four fights over top-notch competition. Most recently, he knocked off Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch at UFC 162 in July. 

Which man will take the next step toward a title at 185 pounds? Here’s the information you need to watch the event, as well as predictions for each fight on the card. Deeper analysis is available for the top three bouts.

 

Manuwa vs. Jimmo Is an Exciting and Potentially Explosive Light Heavyweight Bout

When Jimi “Poster Boy” Manuwa and “Big Deal” Ryan Jimmo battle, there could be fireworks. Both men have powerful striking abilities and are looking to make their mark at 205 pounds. 

Manuwa is undefeated in his MMA career and has a 2-0 mark in the UFC. Most recently, he stopped Cyrille Diabate in February at UFC on Fuel TV 7. Though he has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, Poster Boy likes to stand and trade. He has a nice variety of strikes, and he throws all of them with mean intentions. 

Though both are dangerous strikers, Manuwa’s powerful leg kicks balance out his boxing game nicely. His ability to change levels gives him a slight edge offensively. However, Jimmo is the better defensive fighter. Per FightMetric, Manuwa only evades 36 percent of the strikes fired at him.

As you can see in the video here from BAMMA on YouTube, he holds his chin straight up and has a tendency to drop his right hand. His opponent Anthony Rea caught him on a couple of occasions, but to Manuwa’s credit, he absorbed the shots without going down.

That said, Jimmo is likely the most powerful striker Manuwa will have faced. Those lapses in defense will lead to a KO win for The Big Deal.

 

Guillard vs. Pearson Could Be Another Brawl

Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard doesn’t always fight smart, but he’s always entertaining. Few fighters have more raw talent in regard to speed and power, but he’s underachieved in his career because of poor tactical decisions.

Case in point, he rocked Donald Cerrone at UFC 150 early in the first round but failed to maintain the pressure to finish him. Moments later, Cerrone knocked him out with a head kick once he regained his wherewithal. 

If Guillard maintains focus, he can compete with just about any lightweight in the world.

Pearson is on a two-fight win streak after stopping Ryan Couture and George Sotiropoulos in his last two fights. He’s a well-rounded fighter who has had success winning fights standing and on the mat. In his career, his 15 wins are evenly spread across the KO, decision and submission variety.

His wrestling ability gives him an edge over Guillard, whose takedown defense isn’t the sharpest. He only stuffs 65 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. While Pearson seems to enjoy trading with opponents at times, the smartest approach against Guillard is to take him down.

If Pearson does that, he’ll win a unanimous decision.

 

The Main Event

Machida’s wrestling skills should bring him a win against Munoz. He proved against Dan Henderson that one-dimensional strikers don’t fare well against him. 

Munoz’s takedown accuracy is just 27 percent. More importantly, his takedown defense is just 58 percent. If he can’t stop Machida from putting him on his back, The Dragon will dominate from top position.

Will the weight loss hurt Machida? It could, and quite honestly, that is the only way The Dragon should lose this fight. If he doesn’t have the stamina or strength to hold position against Munoz, then the fight may be fought standing. If that happens, Munoz has a shot as an elite striker.

If Machida is in proper form, he wins by unanimous decision.

 

Stats per FightMetric.com

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Lyoto Machida: Fight with Friend Mark Munoz Will Be All Business at FN 30

Lyoto Machida is set to begin a new chapter in his career this Saturday at Fight Night 30 in Manchester, England.
The former light heavyweight champion has abandoned the light heavyweight division for the time being, a weight class where he’s held the …

Lyoto Machida is set to begin a new chapter in his career this Saturday at Fight Night 30 in Manchester, England.

The former light heavyweight champion has abandoned the light heavyweight division for the time being, a weight class where he’s held the title and been a perennial contender since 2008, to test the waters in the 185-pound fold. While “The Dragon” hasn’t committed to a full-time run at middleweight just yet, the first step he will take into those waters will come at the deep end of the pool as he is set to face a tough test in resurgent contender Mark Munoz.

Where he was originally slated to face Tim Kennedy for his middleweight debut at Fight for the Troops 3 on Nov. 6, an eye injury suffered by Michael Bisping left the UFC’s return to the U.K. with an open slot in the main event. Despite the “Filipino Wrecking Machine” being a good friend and former training partner, Machida didn’t hesitate when the UFC came to call, and a new headlining tilt for the card was made.

While the 36-year-old former strap holder admits it will be strange to face Munoz inside the Octagon, he is confident it will be all business when the cage door closes.

“It’s very weird for me to fight a guy who is my friend but it is part of the job,” Machida told Bleacher Report. “As a professional, I’m not thinking about that. I just focus on the fight. At the gym, you can fight each other in hard training, but now you can do real sparring. I’ll do my best to make it a great fight. 

“People can expect my best performance. I’m debuting at 185 and this is a new chapter in my career. We will see on Saturday but I want people to expect the best from me.”

As Machida prepares to make his official middleweight debut on Saturday, it is a situation that will come with a unique amount of pressure. He is coming off a loss—albeit a questionable one— to Phil Davis at UFC 163 in August in a bout that was “make or break” where his immediate status as a title contender in the light heavyweight division was concerned.

Prior to his loss to the former NCAA Division I national champion wrestler, the Team Black House fighter had collected back-to-back victories for the first time since 2009. Yet, with the 205-pound division becoming increasingly competitive over the past year, his setback against Davis put him on the outside looking in at the upper tier of the light heavyweight collective.

With that situation in mind, Machida was quick to find a remedy, and decided to make the drop down to the middleweight division. While he hasn’t shut the door on a possible return to light heavyweight, he refuses to focus on the negative aspects of the losses he’s suffered. Instead, Machida invests his time and energy into getting back into the win column.

“I just try to improve my skills for the next fight,” Machida said. “I try to improve my power and my will power. It doesn’t matter if I lost. I try to do those things because they are very important for an MMA fight. Everyday you have to wake up, go to the gym and train very hard. When they offered me the middleweight fight it is a new moment for my career. I hope to do great and do my best. That’s why I’m here.

“Depending on the fights I get I can go back and forth,” he added. “I can fight at 205 as well, but it depends on the UFC and what they ask of me. I’ll be ready for anything.”

Despite suffering four losses in his last seven fights, Machida remains one of MMA’s most difficult puzzles to solve. His mastery of timing and spacial difference allows him to close ground on the opposition in rapid fashion and land his strikes with power and precision, all the while staying at a safe distance out of harm’s way.

That said, there has been somewhat of a blueprint laid on how to fight the former champion. In addition to Davis’ approach to their bout in Brazil, former Pride and Strikeforce champion Dan Henderson used a similar attack when he faced Machida at UFC 157 back in February. Both fought with patience and were seemingly more than happy to take the fight to the judge’s scorecards.

It is a situation he’s certainly aware of and believes he’s made the proper adjustments to his attack heading into Saturday’s bout with Munoz. 

“I think so,” Machida responded when asked about a blueprint to face him. “People don’t want to come in anymore. They want to stay there and wait for an opportunity. They wait for me to make a mistake and they try to catch it. This time I am going to try to be different. I will try to be more aggressive with my punches and kicks. I will try takedowns as well and make this an MMA fight. The people I fight are aware about me for sure, but that is not a problem for me.”

 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

 

 

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Lyoto Machida at Middleweight: End of the Line for Karate or Another Title Run?

For most of its short history, success in mixed martial arts has been predicated on a fighter’s ability to harness and employ pure, unadulterated force. Though it started as an homage to the gentle art, once the meatheads of the world figured out how t…

For most of its short history, success in mixed martial arts has been predicated on a fighter’s ability to harness and employ pure, unadulterated force. Though it started as an homage to the gentle art, once the meatheads of the world figured out how to counter and even execute the techniques that once made Gracie jiu-jitsu so effective, subtlety was all but dead in the Octagon.

The emerging sport was dominated by a combination of wrestling and Muay Thai techniques, moves and counters that relied on relentless aggression. This was hard-nosed, straight ahead combat. There was no room for a backward step or deviation of any kind.

Thai boxing and wrestling, in short, were what worked. Nothing else was even considered. This sport had its handful of techniques. Everything else was rejected, or worse, mocked incessantly.

Enter the dragon.

Using the Shotokan Karate his father taught him from an early age in his native Brazil, Lyoto Machida‘s goal was not to be hit, moving around the cage like a cat, waiting for the right time to strike. It was the polar opposite of the Muay Thai approach, a radical departure from MMA‘s ethos of ultra-violence.

Thai boxing was all about toughness. The training was brutal, and the fights even more so. It was the only striking style vetted and tested by a decade-plus of MMA competition. Machida‘s style was an aberration.

Despite being a simple and intuitive strategy, one employed by boxers for years, it wasn’t supposed to work in MMA. Traditional martial arts masters had fallen short against the Gracie family in the early 1990s. That was thought, at the time, to have eliminated those arts from a serious fighter’s lexicon. As I wrote in The MMA Encyclopedia, karate and other arts had met the challenge of the UFC Octagon—and they’d come up short:

The karate club might still be a good place to drop the kids off after school, let them burn off some energy and improve their fitness in an environment that emphasized focus, discipline, and self-control.  For most practitioners, those have always been the real benefits of the martial arts anyway, and a good karate dojo still holds to those values. But traditional karate was thought to be incapable of turning out fighters who could compete in the full-contact free-for-all of modern mixed martial arts.

Machida made a liar out of all of us, a fool of anyone who openly mocked fighting arts that had survived for centuries. While he certainly wasn’t the first prominent mixed martial artist to hold rank in a traditional karate discipline, he was the first to look like a karate fighter in the cage.

He didn’t just mix an occasional technique into his Muay Thai attack like some traditional stylists. Machida moved like a karateka. He leaped in and out of range head back in an uncommonly high posture, utterly unpredictable and lethal. Machida did things we had never seen before, countering strikes better than anyone in MMA history not named Chuck Liddell and disguising his amazing foot sweeps behind straight punches.

While it may seem like hyperbole now, Joe Rogan’s proclamation that we were in the “Machida era” felt true during his short prime as a light heavyweight. From the moment he knocked Thiago Silva cold at UFC 94, something seemed special about Machida.

And though he’s declined with time, there can be little doubt that his success was something more than just a fighter making good on his potential. Machida changed the way we thought about what a mixed martial arts fight could be. More than just brutality, there could be beauty too.

And there can be again.

At UFC Fight Night 30 in England Saturday, the 35-year-old Machida makes his debut in the middleweight class. Despite reaching the pinnacle of the sport at 205 pounds, no one could deny that he’s spent most of his career undersized and outgunned. Finally up against like-sized opponents for the first time in his career, the potential for a return to form is very real.

Though he’s gone just 4-4 since winning the light heavyweight title from Rashad Evans in 2009, Machida still has all the tools to succeed at the highest levels. When he’s lost, it’s been mostly in close fights. Twice decisions many thought he deserved went to a game opponent. Besides his bout with champion Jon Jones, he’s never looked outclassed or out of his league.

Entering the middleweight division, after years in the light heavyweight war zone, could be a sweet relief for Machida. The fighters, for the most part, aren’t at the same level as those at 205, long considered the UFC’s marque division. Looking at a list of the top 10 fighters at UFC.com, there isn’t a single name I can’t imagine Machida standing over, hands raised in triumph. That includes top-five wrestler Mark Munoz, a longtime training partner and current opponent.

If he can make a final run to greatness, it will be a wonderful thing for MMA as a sport. He’s brought beauty to a brutal world, one typified by gaudy clothing and often bloodthirsty fans. His brand of stylized violence proves not all fighters are mere brutes. Machida is a true artist, an athletic intellectual in a sport that needs one hundred more of him.

Who else is ready for the Machida era—take two?

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UFC Fight Night 30: 3 Under-the-Radar Contests

With UFC Fight Night 30, another night of fights is almost upon us. Hot on the heals of UFC 166, once again we wonder which bouts are going to stand out and maybe, if we are very lucky, delight us as much as Gilbert Melendez and Diego Sanchez did….

With UFC Fight Night 30, another night of fights is almost upon us. Hot on the heals of UFC 166, once again we wonder which bouts are going to stand out and maybe, if we are very lucky, delight us as much as Gilbert Melendez and Diego Sanchez did.

Of course, bouts like Melendez vs. Sanchez are very rare. It helps when two men are proven warriors, yet it is still hard to gauge if their styles will mesh in a way that favors an all out slugfest.

But as fans, that is what we do: We look at the events hard and let our imaginations run wild in the search for the next big brawl.

At UFC Fight Night 30, we will see Mark Munoz welcome Lyoto Machida to the middleweight division, while Melvin Guillard meets Ross Pearson. Even though these fights may or may not be barn burners, they top off a card with some potential, including three potential fights that may just yield the kind of excitement we are hoping for.

 

Jimi Manuwa vs. Ryan Jimmo

Jimi Manuwa is as of now a perfect fighter as far as his record. He is undefeated at 13-0, and none of his fights have gone to decision. He has 12 KO/TKOs and one submission victory—a clear prelude to what he brings into his contest with Ryan Jimmo.

Jimmo is the more experienced of the two, boasting a record of 18-2, gaining the finish in exactly half of his posted victories (seven via KO/TKO, two via submission). His knockout of Anthony Perosh at UFC 149, coming at the seven-second mark of the first round, is the fastest KO in the history of the light heavyweight division in the UFC.

Both men possess heavy hands, although the clear advantage in KO power should belong to Manuwa, who has 10 finishes inside of the first round.

For as long as this lasts, it should be exciting. If both men are eager, this bout could end fast with either man scoring via KO, and in that scenario, I predict Manuwa to be the victor.

However, if both men are content to be cautious and respectful of each other’s power, Manuwa may end up seeing Round 3 for the first time in his career. Should this fight go the distance, I predict Jimmo will see his hand raised, as he has gone the distance and claimed victory nine times in his career.

It should be quite entertaining for as long as it lasts.

 

Al Iaquinta vs. Piotr Hallmann

One of the favorable aspects of the fight between Al Iaquinta and Piotr Hallmann is that both men have been active as of late. Iaquinta will be fighting his second fight in 56 days and Hallmann his second fight in 52 days.

This could very well translate into both men coming in at the top of their games, ready to go.

While Hallmann has more experience (14-1), Iaquinta made a good accounting of himself on season 15 of The Ultimate Fighter and should be more acclimated to fighting on the big stage.

Hallmann may very well try to take this bout to the floor early, as Iaquinta has two defeats on his record, both coming via submission. Ideally, Iaquinta will be ready for this strategy, but after seeing Junior dos Santos succumb to Cain Velasquez via the same strategy the champ used to dethrone dos Santos the first time, one never knows.

Still, I predict Iaquinta to be the man that wants it more, taking the victory via unanimous decision in a grinding kind of fight.

 

Andy Ogle vs. Cole Miller

If ever there was a time for Andy Ogle to make it statement, it would be against Cole Miller.

Miller possesses the submission skills to catch Ogle on the ground, but since he has dropped down to featherweight, he is 1-3. This could bode well for the gritty Brit; Ogle is not overly good in any one area, but he is gritty as hell and has enough power in his hands to keep Miller on his heels if he can get inside.

Miller, for his part, always fights with a kind of subdued fury that really only seems to come out at the moment he is about to finish his opponents. He’ll need to deploy this fury if he wants to break out of the decision-loss slump he seems to be in. He’s a tough fighter who enjoys a good brawl, but so was Leonard Garcia, who was eventually bounced from the promotion.

I think this fight is the sleeper of the night and predict Ogle to win in an exciting back-and-forth fight that will see both men rocked and bloody by the end.

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UFC Fight Night 30: Predicting the Post-Fight Bonuses

The UFC’s long-awaited return to England comes to you this weekend from Manchester, boasting a card that has the potential to be an all-time classic. Headlined by Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz, the card could turn into a potential slugfest due to the am…

The UFC’s long-awaited return to England comes to you this weekend from Manchester, boasting a card that has the potential to be an all-time classic. Headlined by Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz, the card could turn into a potential slugfest due to the amount of heavy hitters participating this weekend.

Fans continually bash cards that lack “star power,” but those fans don’t realize that those are the cards that always deliver in terms of excitement. Cards in England are always exciting, so make sure you catch this card that starts late morning/early afternoon, depending on where you are in the U.S.

Here are the predictions for the fight night bonuses.

 

Submission of the Night: Jimy Hettes

There is not much potential for submissions on this card, considering all the talent featured that are knockout artists. Jimy Hettes is not one of those guys.

Hettes, a judo fighter, is all about getting in the clinch, putting down his opponents and working them over from the top. Of his 10 wins, nine have come via submission, including his UFC debut against Alex Caceres.

Hettes takes on Scottish prospect Robert Whiteford, who takes this fight on extremely short notice. Though he has great potential, he did not have enough time to train for this specific fight and it could lead to a tapout.

Hettes will likely be the man applying the submission and taking home the check. 

Also in the running: Cole Miller

 

Knockout of the Night: Lyoto Machida

With all of the potential knockouts that will take place on this card, it’s going to be really tough to pick a winner of the post-fight bonus. However, seeing the spectacular nature in which Lyoto Machida has put people down before, he is the favorite here.

Mark Munoz, his opponent, will not have his chin confused with Roy Nelson anytime soon and he is taking on a karate stylist that has the ability to stuff his takedowns. When he is unable to put the Brazilian down, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Machida will touch Munoz’s chin and hurt him bad. However, it won’t hurt Munoz until he wakes up from his punch-induced slumber. 

Also in the running: Melvin Guillard, Jimi Manuwa, Alessio Sakara

 

Fight of the Night: Melvin Guillard-Ross Pearson

Fight of the Night is another category that will be tough to pick, as there are a number of fights that could steal the show. The co-main event may not last long, but it will be electrifying.

Melvin Guillard is all about throwing heavy leather. So is Ross Pearson. That is the type of recipe that produces fights that become classics.

Don’t expect this fight to go to the judges. However, expect this fight to be one of the best of the night that earns both men a little extra cash in their pocket. 

Also in the running: Phil Harris-John Lineker, Luke Barnatt-Andrew Craig, Alessio Sakara-Nicholas Musoke

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