Tag: UFC on Fox 7

The prelims for UFC on Fox 7 may be underway, but that doesn’t mean it’s too late to get your picks in for the stacked main card in store on Saturday night.

Headlined by a lightweight title fight between Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez, there are plenty of awesome fights for fans to get excited about. For those who like to put a little extra stake in the action, there are plenty of interesting options to choose from.

Here’s a quick look at the latest odds and predictions for each of the fights on the main card.

All odds via Bovada.

 

Matt Brown (+245) vs. Jordan Mein (-315)

Jordan Mein comes in as a pretty heavy favorite here.

A lot of that probably has to do with the fact that his impressive first-round victory over Dan Miller should be fresh in the minds of bettors. He won his UFC debut just last month on March 16.

Brown, on the other hand, has spent much of his career as a sub-.500 fighter. He’s on a four-fight win streak and has claimed wins over the likes of Mike Swick and Stephen Thompson.

Brown has neutralized good strikers before, but Mein is on a roll. He was mighty impressive in his debut and could end this one early.

Prediction: Mein by TKO in Round 2

 

Nate Diaz (-155) vs. Josh Thomson (+125)

Nate Diaz makes his return to the Octagon for the first time since losing his lightweight championship bid against Benson Henderson. Thomson will be making his UFC debut after losing a split decision to Henderson’s next opponent, Gilbert Melendez.

This is an interesting bout to say the least.

Diaz has all the name recognition among casual fans. His high-volume boxing style makes him a fan favorite to watch but Thomson is no opponent to take lightly. He has wins over Melendez, K.J. Noons and Pat Healy on his record and should give Diaz a run for his money.

In the end, Diaz might be a bit too much for Thomson in his debut. He’s just as well-rounded as Thomson and has fought slightly better competition recently.

Prediction: Diaz by Unanimous Decision

 

Daniel Cormier (-380) vs. Frank Mir (+290)

Former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix champion Daniel Cormier makes his long-awaited UFC debut against one of the better heavyweights in UFC history, Frank Mir.

Cormier is an exciting addition to the UFC’s heavyweight division, and his favored status over a well-known name like Mir is an indication of that.

He mixes an accomplished wrestling background with serious knockout power on the feet.

He’ll be facing an extremely dangerous submission artist in Mir, but overall, this is a matchup that favors him. Mir is coming off a TKO loss to Junior dos Santos and was rocked by Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his fight previous to that one.

Mir can always catch a submission, but if Cormier catches him, it could be over quickly.

Prediction: Cormier by TKO in Round 3

 

Benson Henderson (c) (-300) vs. Gilbert Melendez (+230)

Gilbert Melendez joins Daniel Cormier as another former Strikeforce star making his UFC debut. Unlike Cormier, he’ll be a decent underdog against lightweight champion Benson Henderson.

Bendo will be making his third title defense since winning the belt against Frankie Edgar back in February of 2012. His mix of strong kicks and dynamic wrestling has made him a difficult champion to dethrone thus far, and he’ll need all the diversity he can muster to remain champion against Melendez.

The former Strikeforce lightweight champion is a serious contender who hasn’t lost a bout since 2008.

Expect this to be a close bout, but Henderson is the favorite for a reason.

Expect his kicks to be enough to ward off Melendez’s boxing game and his wrestling to be the difference.

Prediction: Henderson by Unanimous Decision

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Former Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez will finally make his UFC debut on Saturday when he takes on defending UFC lightweight champion Benson Henderson in UFC on Fox 7‘s main event.

Melendez is one of the few remaining elite fighters in the world that hasn’t made his debut with the world’s largest promotion. After spending much of the last six years on the Strikeforce roster, he’ll finally have the opportunity to shine in the Octagon.

He couldn’t have asked for a better fight to launch his name into the consciousness of the average UFC fan. He has the opportunity to capture a title in his first UFC fight. An opportunity that will undoubtedly become increasingly rare.

Henderson will be looking to establish himself as one of the UFC’s dominant champions. With a win over Melendez, he would move past Sean Sherk for the third-longest title reign in the 155-pound division at 420 days.

With two champions set to square off, fans couldn’t ask for anything bigger on a card that will be broadcast free of charge on network television. Here are the latest odds and info on this matchup with some quick analysis and a prediction.

 

TV Info: Main card begins on Fox at 8 p.m. ET

Odds (via Bovada): Henderson -310, Melendez +240

Analysis

The odds tell the story in this one. This isn’t the most lopsided matchup on the card in terms of odds, but Henderson holds the slight advantage in just about every facet.

Melendez has the power in his hands to make things interesting. Henderson doesn’t want to get caught up in too many exchanges with the challenger, as 11 of his 21 wins have come by way of knockout.

Even so, Henderson is great at utilizing his powerful kicks to offset his opponents’ boxing. He’ll make it difficult for Melendez to find the range by peppering in low kicks to set up takedowns and the rest of his striking game.

On the ground, Melendez is a good grappler but Henderson is at least slightly better in every aspect. Henderson has yet to be submitted since his third career fight on the regional circuit in 2007. He’s also won eight fights by submission, so he’s capable of sinking something in anytime.

The most interesting thing in the matchup should be how Melendez attempts to deal with Henderson’s strength. Melendez may have a slight advantage in the speed category, and that could be what makes things intriguing.

 

Prediction: Henderson by Decision

Henderson by decision is starting to become the new Georges St. Pierre by decision. He’s won his last six fights on the scorecards and hasn’t pressed for the opportunity to close out the fight.  

Melendez is a qualified contender, but you’d like to see how he handles the extra pressure of going to the UFC before endorsing his upset bid. We’ve seen fighters like Jake Shields and Hector Lombard struggle in their promotional debuts, and Melendez could have the same issue.

Whether or not that turns to be a factor, Henderson is one of the most dominant champions and Melendez may have been better served taking one more fight before challenging for a title.

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