Tag: UFC on Fox 8

After a disappointing UFC Women’s Bantamweight championship loss to Ronda Rousey at UFC, Liz Carmouche will attempt to begin her journey back into the title picture with a win over up-and-comer Jessica Andrade. 

The bout is set to kick off the main card on the nationally televised channel so the opportunity is there for either fighter to vault themselves into the public eye with a win. 

For Carmouche, whose profile is already fairly public thanks in part to Rousey‘s stardom, it’s an opportunity to show that she’s more than just the “woman that lost to Rousey.” For the relatively unknown Andrade, it’s a chance to pull off the biggest upset in the short history of the women’s division. 

She took the fight as a replacement for Miesha Tate, who was moved from the card to coach opposite of Ronda Rousey in an upcoming season for The Ultimate Fighter, per MMA Junkie. 

So without further ado, here’s a closer look at this crucial bout. 

 

Odds (via Bovada): Carmouche -600, Andrade +400

This actually marks the biggest line in the entire night as Vegas appears to love the fact that Carmouche is a much more well-known commodity than the 21-year-old Andrade.

Carmouche has much more experience fighting on the big stage. Not only was she involved in the UFC championship bout, but she also fought for a belt in Strikeforce before the UFC had a women’s division and went 2-0 in Invicta.

Andrade on the other hand has yet to fight in the United States and has only fought outside of her native Brazil once. The transition from her experiences to fighting in the Octagon may be severe.

 

Preview

In terms of what to expect, both women are adept at finishing fights. 

Neither have extensive MMA records, but Carmouche has finished her opponent in seven of her eight wins while all nine of Andrade‘s wins have come by finish. In other words, we’re going to be treated to two fighters trying to end the fight. 

However, the aggression has been costly at times for both fighters. Carmouche has been finished twice as she was caught by Rousey‘s infamous armbar and submitted by Marloes Coenen with Sarah Kaufman representing her third loss by way of decision. 

Andrade was knocked out by Kinberly Tanaka Novaes and dropped a decision to Jennifer Maia. She’ll pose the greatest threat to Carmouche is on the ground where she’s racked up five wins by submission. 

 

Prediction

This is actually a lot tougher to call than the odds might indicate. Carmouche is tested against greater competition, but the rate at which Andrade has risen up the ranks is alarming and she actually has a better record. 

However, it’s hard to imagine she leaps right into the big stage with a win. She should shine in spots, making those who back Carmouche sweat it out a little, but it’s tough to envision Carmouche picking up a loss after putting Rousey in some trouble in their bout. 

Look for Andrade to get the better of the grappling in the first round before Carmouche goes to the striking game in the second frame to get the finish. 

Carmouche by second-round TKO

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Demetrious Johnson and John Moraga are set to headline Saturday night’s UFC on Fox 8 card for Johnson’s flyweight title in Seattle. 

Although it is the headliner for the card, it’s by no means the kind of matchup that is sure to have fans buzzing. After all, Demetrious Johnson is often the forgotten champion coming from the lightest weight class in the UFC and John Moraga has never seen the main card of an event before getting his title shot. 

Regardless of how you feel about this fight, it affords us the opportunity to watch a champion defend his belt on free TV and it certainly beats a weekend with no fights to watch at all. So let’s take a look at this interesting bout by the numbers. 

All statistics provided by FightMetric unless otherwise noted. 

 

Pace

As we’ve seen with flyweight bouts in the past, these guys only know one speed. And it’s really fast. 

Both of these fighters will look to set a high pace and few do it better than Johnson. His pace and quickness are two strengths that he has built upon. Here’s how the two stack up in terms of activity:

As we can see, both find success in the striking game by pushing the pace. However, the main difference between the two is Johnson’s ability to avoid strikes. His ability to get in and out with combinations or clinch before his opponent has time to retaliate keeps him relatively free from harm in exchanges. 

Johnson’s persistence in going for takedowns is also going to be key. 

According to Fightnomics, Moraga has never been controlled on the ground:

 

Accuracy

Pushing the pace doesn’t mean much unless you’re efficient while doing it. Anderson Silva is the perfect example as he rarely ranks among the top fighters in terms of work rate but uses incredible accuracy to dominate the striking game. 

Here’s a look at how efficient both Moraga and Johnson have been in their UFC careers. 

Despite Johnson’s advantage in raw takedown numbers, Moraga actually holds the better percentages. That can be attributed to the relative small sample size that Moraga provides.

He’s fought in just two UFC bouts while Johnson is a UFC veteran that has fought great wrestlers in Dominick Cruz and Ian McCall. 

 

Method of Victory

We can talk about striking, takedowns and accuracy all day, but at the end of the day all that matters is whether the fighter gets his hand raised. 

Obviously both fighters in this one have had their hand raised throughout their careers. Moraga owns a 14-1 record while Johnson has posted a 17-2-1 mark. Here’s how each fighter’s methods of victory break down. 

 

Looking at how each have picked up their wins, Johnson is clearly more prepared to go the distance. Not only has he won a higher percentage of his fights by decision, but he’ll be taking on an opponent in Moraga who has never gone five rounds. 

Conversely, it could be said that Moraga is more likely to finish the fight, having won nearly half of his fights by submission. However, Johnson has never been finished in his career. 

If the numbers are any indication, we’re certainly in for an interesting title fight. 

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The UFC will roll out its eighth card on FOX Saturday night in Seattle, Wash., headlined by a flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger John Moraga. 

After a three-week layoff since Chris Weidman knocked out Anderson Silva at UFC 162, the mediocre card should at least tide fight fans over until UFC 163 on Aug. 3. 

Besides a flyweight championship bout, which should offer the usual high-pace action we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from that division, the card will be anchored by two intriguing welterweight bouts. Rising contender Rory MacDonald and veteran Jake Ellenberger will meet in the co-main event while Bobby Voelker and Robbie Lawler will also fight on the main card. 

Here’s a closer look at all three of those fights, including the latest odds from Bovada and a prediction for each. All statistics used via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

 

Bobby Voelker vs. Robbie Lawler

Odds: Voelker +230, Lawler -300

Based purely off of each fighters most recent bout, it’s easy to see why Lawler is a heavy favorite.

“Ruthless” is coming off of the biggest win in his career after knocking out Josh Koscheck in his last bout. Voelker is coming off of a decision loss in his latest bout against Patrick Cote of all people. Throw in the fact that Voelker was the last minute replacement for Siyar Bahadurzada, who was the injury replacement for Tarec Saffiedine per MMA Junkie, and it’s clear to see the odds are stacked against him. 

Upon closer examination, this one is a little more competitive than what meets the eye though. 

Lawler may have defeated Koscheck, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that he was 1-3 in his previous four fights with Strikeforce before the win. 

Conversely, Voelker was 3-1 prior to his loss to Cote—a loss that saw him lose a decision despite outstriking Cote in two of three rounds and landing four takedowns while not giving up any takedowns to his opponent. 

Prediction: Voelker by Decision

Lawler can end the fight at any moment with his power, but he hasn’t won a fight by decision since 2003. Voelker hasn’t been finished since 2008. It’s an upset, but not one that’s out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds: MacDonald -240, Ellenberger +190

MacDonald comes into the fight as a strong favorite despite Ellenberger‘s recent knockout victory over Nate Marquardt and Vegas is exactly right in this case. 

As good and experienced as Ellenberger is, MacDonald has shown throughout his brief, yet brilliant career that he deserves to be favored. However Ellenberger will prove to be a different challenge for MacDonald. 

While most of MacDonald’s opponents have been unable to handle the 24-year-old’s wrestling, the stats show that Ellenberger is on similar footing in the department:

 

Prediction: MacDonald by Rd. 2 TKO

This fight should give us a great look into MacDonald’s striking game. The stats show that he’s capable of getting the best of Ellenberger on the feet. He nearly doubles his pace (4.39 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Ellenberger‘s 2.67) with better accuracy (55 percent to 45 percent). 

 

Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga

Odds: Johnson -500, Moraga +350

Demetrious Johnson enters his second title defense in a bit of a predicament. He’s the only UFC champion (not including interim champion Renan Barao) that has yet to headline a pay-per-view event. 

Yet, he’s not really in a position to make much of a statement about his drawing power without a dominant win over an opponent that few have seen fight. 

Make no mistake, Moraga is a dangerous challenger. He’s 14-1 in his career and has finished both of his opponents in the UFC, but his last fight was a Facebook prelim and the fight before that opened up the FX preliminary card. 

Johnson has yet to earn a stoppage since dropping down to flyweight, but needs one here if he wants to stop his streak of fighting on free TV. 

Prediction: Johnson by Decision

Moraga is a strong challenger, but hasn’t done anything to show he can keep up with the quickness of Johnson. Mighty Mouse only allows 1.97 significant strikes per minute and is one of the better defensive fighters in the sport. He’ll use that to his advantage once again to outpoint yet another opponent. 

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