UFC on Fox 8: Johnson vs Moraga Fight Card, Betting Odds, Predictions

The UFC’s post Fourth of July break will come to a close on July 27 when the promotion heads to Seattle’s Key Arena for UFC on Fox 8, which will be headlined by a flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger John Moraga.
In t…

The UFC’s post Fourth of July break will come to a close on July 27 when the promotion heads to Seattle’s Key Arena for UFC on Fox 8, which will be headlined by a flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger John Moraga.

In the co-main event, highly ranked welterweights Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger will face off in the hopes that they can take one step closer to a title shot. 

The four-fight main card will be rounded out by Robbie Lawler vs. Bobby Voelker and Liz Carmouche vs. Jessica Andrade. Read on to find out the odds and predictions for the upcoming event.

 

 

Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1) vs. John Moraga (13-1)

The UFC’s flyweight division is not what you would call deep, and that’s how, more or less, you end up with champion Demetrious Johnson facing John Moraga in the main event of UFC on Fox 8.

Johnson’s last three wins came against the three fighters ranked higher than Moraga in the division: Joseph Benavidez, John Dodson and Ian McCall. That’s not to say that Moraga should be dismissed; he has a puncher’s chance in this one, but the odds of him landing that punch and capitalizing on it are slim.

Johnson has exponentially faster footwork and striking than Moraga. Johnson also possesses better technical ability and is a more well-rounded fighter. He will set a frenetic pace and control where the fight goes.

If Moraga is fortunate enough to land a punch, he will do so in the middle of the Octagon, giving Johnson the time and space to recover. There will be no repeat of the back-to-the-cage knockout Moraga had over Ulysses Gomez.

Moraga has the advantage in the wrestling game, but his flat-footed striking style is practically plodding when compared to Johnson’s. I just don’t see him having the opportunity to take the fight to the ground.

The other X-factor is the level of competition. Moraga has never faced anyone as highly skilled as Johnson. He may have 14 professional fights to his name, but outside of his last two victories, fans will be hard pressed to recognize many of Moraga‘s opponents. The one they will notice, John Dodson, is responsible for the single defeat on Moraga’s record.

Johnson will use his aforementioned attributes to wear Moraga down and take the unanimous decision in this one.

Odds: Johnson favorite (-450) over Moraga (+325)

 

Rory MacDonald (14-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-6)

No offense to the headlining bout, but the co-main event at UFC on Fox 8 is the fight that most fans will be keeping their eyes on. The welterweight matchup pits No. 3 Rory MacDonald against No. 4 Jake Ellenberger.

To be honest, I struggled with this one.

I do not expect to see the slow-paced Ellenberger we saw in the Jay Hieron fight. That style won’t give him any advantage over MacDonald.

I think Ellenberger comes out aggressive, fast and swinging for the fences, and that’s his best chance in this fight. He also has to be aware that if hurts MacDonald, he cannot get sloppy and take unnecessary chances.

MacDonald’s best bet is to control the pace, frustrate Ellenberger and wear him down. He can do this through takedowns, technical striking, working from a distance and avoiding the power striking of Ellenberger.

If the pre-fight talk means anything, Ellenberger is going to fight angry. He seems irritated by MacDonald and the younger fighter’s hype. If that is more than trash talk and there is real anger, Ellenberger is making a huge mistake. Fighting with emotion will cloud his thoughts, which won’t benefit him against the stoic MacDonald.

The X-factor in this fight is the team at Tristar. By the time fight night arrives, the Tristar team will have a solid plan in place for MacDonald, not unlike the blueprints they prepare for UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre.

This one goes the distance, and MacDonald walks away with the unanimous decision.

Odds: MacDonald favorite (-225) over Ellenberger (+175)

 

Robbie Lawler (20-9-0-1) vs. Bobby Voelker (24-9)

Robbie Lawler was originally booked to face Siyar Bahadurzada at UFC on Fox 8, but an injury forced Bahadurzada from the card. Replacing him in this welterweight contest will be Bobby Voelker.

Voelker is coming off a somewhat controversial decision loss to Patrick Cote in his UFC debut. He showed some heavy hands, a good chin and decent cardio in the loss. Early in the fight he seemed a bit stiff, and at other points he was a bit sloppy in his attack, but for his first UFC fight, he looked solid.

Lawler will enter UFC on Fox 8 coming off a first-round TKO win over Josh Koscheck at UFC 157. That victory earned him a place in the Top 10 in the welterweight division.

Like Voelker, Lawler is a heavy-handed striker with a hell of a chin, but he has faced a lot tougher competition throughout his career. That will be the difference here: experience against top-notch competition.

Expect Lawler to wear Voelker down through Rounds 1 and 2 and put him away in Round 3.

Lawler wins by third-round TKO.

Odds: Lawler favorite (-300) over Voelker (+230)

 

Liz Carmouche (8-3) vs. Jessica Andrade (9-2)

Jessica Andrade turned professional in 2011 and wasted no time getting busy and staying busy. Between September 2011 and April 2013, the Brazilian bantamweight racked up 11 fights, going 9-2. All nine of her victories came via stoppage (four KO/TKO, five submissions).

Andrade will get a tough fight when she makes her UFC debut, facing No. 5 women’s bantamweight Liz Carmouche. She got the call to face Carmouche after Carmouche’s original opponent Miesha Tate replaced an injured Cat Zingano as coach opposite Ronda Rousey on Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter.

Andrade is a raw prospect, and she’s being thrown to the wolves in this fight. But hey, when the UFC calls, what have you got to lose by saying yes? She has shown a decent chin, but her striking is rudimentary. Her go-to move has been the guillotine choke, which she has used to earn four of her five stoppages.

The only way Carmouche loses this fight is if she takes Andrade lightly and totally dismisses her, which is unlikely. Carmouche has something to prove after her last fight, a loss to UFC champion Rousey. She will be hungry to return to the front of the line and get another crack at the belt.

Carmouche wins via first-round TKO.

Odds: Carmouche favorite (-700) over Andrade (+450)

 

All odds via Bovada.

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UFC on Fox 8 Preview: Fun Facts and Stats Heading into Johnson vs. Moraga Card

The UFC will head to Seattle on July 27 for the eighth installment of its on Fox series of fight cards. The card will be headlined by a flyweight title bout, as champion Demetrious Johnson puts his belt on the line against the fourth-ranked contender, …

The UFC will head to Seattle on July 27 for the eighth installment of its on Fox series of fight cards. The card will be headlined by a flyweight title bout, as champion Demetrious Johnson puts his belt on the line against the fourth-ranked contender, John Moraga.

The evening’s co-main event will see the No. 3-ranked Rory MacDonald meeting the fourth-ranked Jake Ellenberger

What follows are a few handy stats and facts leading into the UFC on Fox 8 fight card. 

*All stats via FightMetric.

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UFC on Fox 8: Demetrius Johnson Staying Focused in a Hectic Environment

It would be understandable if Demetrius Johnson were feeling a bit on edge these days.
The UFC flyweight champion is under two weeks away from making the second defense of his 125-pound strap in front of a passionate crowd in his hometown and headlinin…

It would be understandable if Demetrius Johnson were feeling a bit on edge these days.

The UFC flyweight champion is under two weeks away from making the second defense of his 125-pound strap in front of a passionate crowd in his hometown and headlining the UFC’s eighth offering on the Fox television network.

While those circumstances undoubtedly create some form of added pressure, “Mighty Mouse” and his wife Destiny are days away from welcoming their first child into the world, and it seems as if the 26-year-old champion is preparing to handle everything in one fell swoop.

Dealing with major events in both the personal and professional realms could bump any fighter off course. But Johnson is as cool as they come heading into the oncoming storm.

He has an excitable disposition by nature. Handling the stimulation overload which comes with having his first child and stepping out to defend his title on the sport’s biggest stage has Johnson charged up and ready for everything.

For the former bantamweight title challenger and current flyweight champion, everything he is about to face will only further define who he is as a man and a fighter. Johnson has no intention of failing to hit his mark.

He is a proud champion and soon to be a proud father, and those elements will provide tremendous motivation when he steps out to face John Moraga at UFC on Fox 8 in Seattle.

“The baby is still coming; we are just waiting for him,” Johnson told Bleacher Report. “It’s absolutely exciting and hasn’t created any distractions. Luckily, I have been blessed with a very supportive and strong wife. It’s been a long camp because of my surgery and we wanted to make sure my shoulder was good.

“I am ready to go all 25 minutes if I need it. Nothing really changed at all, and the fight is going to be right up the street, so I don’t have to do any traveling whatsoever. 

“Not at all,” Johnson answered when asked if his wife’s pregnancy cravings have made the weight cut difficult. “My wife is a vegetarian, and she eats very healthy… She is pretty healthy and she still cooks all of my meals for me. She cooks my asparagus and chicken at night. I’m pretty focused when it comes to stuff like this because I want to make sure I’m not one of those champions who doesn’t make weight.

“I don’t think there has been a champion in the past who has missed a weight cut and I certainly don’t want to be one of the first.”

When the AMCtrained fighter steps into the Octagon at the Key Arena to face Moraga next Saturday night, it will be Johnson’s first time competing in front of his hometown crowd in nearly four years.

The last time the Kirkland native fought in Washington, he was fighting his way through the states’ regional circuit. In the years that have passed since, he’s become a contender in the little blue cage of the WEC and eventually a champion under the UFC banner.

While an injury forced Johnson out of his originally scheduled tilt with Moraga at the TUF 17 Finale in Las Vegas back in April, the champion will now have the opportunity to defend his crown on his home turf.

“I think it’s a great fight,” Johnson said. “John Moraga has two great victories in the UFC over Ulysses Gomez and Chris Cariaso and I’m looking to get in there and mix it up with him.

“It’s awesome,” he added about the fight taking place in Seattle. “I never wanted to fight in front of my hometown crowd in the past because I was always worried that I would lose and everyone would boo me and say I suck. I didn’t want to deal with all that pressure.

“But I’m at the point now in my career where I really don’t care about what happens. I’m going to go out there and do my best to come away with the victory and to put on a great show.

“But I’m still young. I’m 26 and I have a lot of fighting left to do. I’m at the point in my career where I think it is awesome to be fighting in my hometown and not having to do any traveling. Let’s see how it works. If things go sour, it’s not the end of the world.”

When the Washington-based fighter defeated Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion at UFC 152 back in September of 2012, he suddenly found himself in a unique position.

The rest of his peers in the champions’ tier in the UFC have years of divisional history and heated title races to keep their divisions on the minds of the MMA fanbase. Johnson has become the face of a weight class to which fans are still adapting.

The 125-pound weight class is slightly north of a year old. Johnson has been the biggest factor in the division’s push to succeed. His main event bout at UFC on Fox 8 will mark the second time flyweights have headlined an event.

With both coming on the large platform Fox presents, it is a strong indication the UFC has big plans for the division.

Earlier this month at UFC 162, the promotion adorned the press conference room at the Mandalay Bay with huge wall-length photos of each of its divisional champions. On the wall next to superstars like Georges St-Pierre and Jon Jones was a picture of the flyweight champion.

While he wasn’t aware of the banner, it is an honor he isn’t taking lightly.

“That’s awesome,” Johnson said. “I didn’t know they had a big picture of me posted up at UFC 162. That’s fantastic and I wish I had gotten a picture of that.

“Second of all, it’s awesome with me trying to build my title reign, it is also building my profile as a world-class fighter and athlete. The better I do at defending my title will only lead to more exposure, and hopefully more doors will open for me to do a lot more things for my life and career.

“I just stay focused. At the end of the day, it’s always about training hard and staying humble because anything can be short-lived. I could be defeated July 27 and all of this talk and billboard stuff will all go away. That’s just the reality of things. But I make sure I stay focused in the gym and train hard every single day, and hopefully when I go out there on July 27 I come out with the ‘W.'”

With the title fight approaching and a packed media schedule filled with phone and video interviews, Johnson has locked down his focus for the bout and remained on his toes throughout the process. A great example of the latter came in the final question for this particular interview. He took the opportunity to flip the question and serve it back.

“What do you think fans can expect when I get in the Octagon on July 27 against John Moraga?” he volleyed. “Let me ask you that question. What do you think?”

“I think they are expecting excitement,” this reporter offered in return. “I saw you fight live for the first time against Dodson at UFC on Fox 6, and that fight was pretty amazing back-and-forth, sir.

“Well, there you go. You put that down right there.”

Whether it is Johnson’s words or mine in light of the moment, fans will enter the Key Arena next weekend expecting to see excitement from a champion who has consistently proven to be exactly that. 

Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.

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UFC on FOX 8: Rory MacDonald: The Next Great Champion?

It seems as though every time Rory MacDonald fights we are bombarded with comparisons with his stablemate, Georges St-Pierre.
While it gets incredibly tedious if you are a religious viewer of UFC events, as I am and I know that many of my readers are, …

It seems as though every time Rory MacDonald fights we are bombarded with comparisons with his stablemate, Georges St-Pierre.

While it gets incredibly tedious if you are a religious viewer of UFC events, as I am and I know that many of my readers are, the comparisons are sometimes quite apt. While I am not ready to buy into MacDonald as a world-beater, he does share at least one invaluable quality with the great welterweight champion: He is extremely good at doing what he is told.

The true talent of Rory MacDonald is that he, like Georges St-Pierre, is a perfect conduit for his coaches’ strategies. Every other week we hear of some fighter moving camps to Jackson’s MMA, Black House or Tristar, and many timesoutside of improved cardio, a couple of neat tricks on the ground or in the clinch, or occasional sharper stand-up combinationsit rarely makes nearly as much difference as the public or the fighter think it is going to.

Leonard Garcia was at the camp known among fans for producing some of the best game plans in mixed martial arts, Jackson’s MMA, for years and it didn’t make a damn bit of difference to his fights because of the way he opted to fight.

If a fighter is focused on getting a knockout with only his hands or headhunts exclusively, or is only worried about being exciting (and they are often the saddest ones to watch waste their immense talent) then training with elite strategists is going to count for diddly squat. 

Now the Tristar Gym has had it’s fair share of fighters come and go, but Rory MacDonald and Georges St-Pierre stand out because they are not guilty of becoming fixated on one particular method or on throwing away a dominating, if mundane, victory for an entertaining crapshoot. They are well-rounded fighters who come in following their coaches’ specific instructions and consequently win most of their bouts in dominating fashion.

They don’t make for the most exciting personalities and they don’t sell a fight all that wella look at MacDonald’s embarrassing post-fight call-out of Carlos Condit or tweets this week will show thatbut a disciplined, rounded and receptive fighter is the most a coach can ever really hope for. 

To demonstrate MacDonald’s ability to follow a game plan, I’ll use his most recent bout against B. J. Penn.

Analyzing fighters is a little harder than some realize, and the coaches who are really good at it stand head and shoulders above the others. That is not to overstate the importance of what I do in my articles; I simply point out merits and flaws in fighters; I don’t go about fixing them or training fighters to exploit themthat is the truly hard part! 

B. J. Penn for quite some time was written off as someone who had to be held down or against the fence to be beaten, but as time went on the cracks began to show.I speculated for some time before Penn’s fight with Diaz that Penn seemed to struggle in the face of body shots, but the only evidence to suggest this had been Hughes’ brief ground assault on Penn’s ribs, and St-Pierre’s body jabs and punches from guard.

Nick Diaz certainly tested that theory (if you ever want to know if a man can take a body blow, put him in against Diaz) but MacDonaldwho had never previously shown much aptitude for hitting the bodywent about attacking Penn’s abdomen with such certainty that it is unquestionable that his coaches picked up on this weakness in Penn.

From the beginning of the bout MacDonald sprinkled in a lovely left hook to the body which he had otherwise never shown. It clearly hurt Penn, as did the body kicks that MacDonald landed later in the bout.

Another weakness in Penn which was obvious from his first bout with Frankie Edgar, but could have been assumed all along based on his boxing-based stance, is his difficulty dealing with low kicks and in fact most types of kick. He stands long and narrow with his lead foot turned in, much like Diaz and Junior Dos Santos, in order to maximize reach on his jab and lead hook.

This means, however, that the slightest low kick will buckle Penn’s knee joint and hinder his movement, and that he lacks the wide base necessary to be taking powerful kicks on the forearms or shins while remaining in position to counter.

Boxing and kickboxing are two completely different games: Boxing in MMA works wonderfully when opponents want to punch, but the finer points of a pure boxing game are negated by decent kickboxing.

Additionally, throughout the bout MacDonald was able to effectively land jabs on Penn which immediately drew comparisons with that of the great Georges St-Pierre, who also handily out-jabbed Penn in their second bout. 

Now obviously Rory was able to follow his team’s game plan and was even able to get creative later in the fight as he beat on a gassed and bewildered Penn, bringing out everything from counter elbows to Brazilian kicks to the least awe-inspiring Ali shuffle I have seen in a while. 

Now I do not want readers to undervalue the idiocy of Penn fighting at welterweight. It is not simply that he is underweight at that weight class but that he has a style of stand-up, based around the jab and around counterblows, which relies on having a reach advantage or at least an even reach.

On the occasions that Penn has slipped jabs at welterweight and looked to come back with his counterpunches, his opponent has just been too far away. With the exception of Matt Hughes, a poor striker and a similar length to Penn, B.J. has not out-boxed a welterweight since Georges St-Pierre, back when the latter didn’t understand that Penn was going to slip and counterjab every time St-Pierre jabbed.

Penn giving up reach is a bad start, but against an opponent who will strike his body, throw kicks at him and not simply headhunt with punches, his boxing game is almost completely impotent. 

Now Rory MacDonald’s height and reach advantages and excellent team game-planning culminated in a brutal beatdown, but the performance was hardly flawless. Rory would feint his jab excellently, which was very important to throwing off Penn’s timing on the counter-jab, something which so few of his lightweight opponents managed to get their head around, but when he did step in with the jab his chin would come up and extend in front of him, then he would pull his head straight back.

There were simply so many occasions in the bout when it was clear that Penn’s reach disadvantage cost him good punches, as Rory’s defense got sloppy and he resorted to hopping straight back after any attack. If Penn had low kicks or could rush opponents as he followed them out of their attack rather than just plodding after them as he always has, the fight might have been less of a massacre. 

Still, it is Penn’s choice to fight with a reach disadvantage, and the weight disadvantage seems to be more of a bragging point than a smart career move. Whether Rory MacDonald’s striking will look anywhere near so impressive against opponents who have a build more suited to welterweight, let alone competent, rounded strikers, remains to be seen.

There is absolutely no trait in combat sports as valuable as discipline and receptiveness to coaching. In this respect it is clear that Firas Zahabi and the Tristar team are molding the finest clay available where many gymseven those with elite strategistsare often working with athletic silly putty. 

Pick up Jack’s eBooks Advanced Striking and Elementary Striking at his blog, Fights Gone By.

Jack can also be found on Facebook and Twitter.

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Jake Ellenberger to Rory MacDonald: Get Ready for Some Horizontal TV Time

There’s a fine line between confident and cocky. What side of that line UFC welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger falls on is pretty much in the eye of the beholder.
Ellenberger, ranked fourth in the UFC welterweight division, will face the thi…

There’s a fine line between confident and cocky. What side of that line UFC welterweight contender Jake Ellenberger falls on is pretty much in the eye of the beholder.

Ellenberger, ranked fourth in the UFC welterweight division, will face the third ranked Rory MacDonald in the co-main event of UFC on Fox 8. As the fight approaches, Ellenberger has been holding nothing back in the trash talk department. When asked about why he has been laying into MacDonald in the time leading up to the July 27 fight, Ellenberger said, “I’m an evidenced based abuser. I didn’t make him make the stupid decision to fight me, I’m just going to make him look stupid when I destroy him.”

MacDonald also defended the jabs he has taken at MacDonald, saying, “I haven’t said anything that isn’t true, and my message to Rory is pretty clear. This isn’t a Tears for Fears lookalike contest. I said he should prepare for some horizontal television time, and I meant it.”

Ellenberger (29-6) has 18 knockout wins to his name, his most recent being a first-round “Knockout of the Night” victory over Nate Marquardt at UFC 158. If Ellenberger does make it 19 when he faces MacDonald it will only be the second loss in the career of the 14-1 MacDonald. MacDonald’s only other defeat was a TKO stoppage at 4:53 of the final round in his UFC debut against Carlos Condit.

With a victory in Seattle, Ellenberger will insert himself into the conversation regarding the next fighter to get a shot at the UFC welterweight title. That fact is not lost on Ellenberger, but it is not his main concern:

That’s obviously the goal at the end of the day, but I’m going out there to perform and to win. Rory doesn’t have a choice where this fight goes, this fight goes where I want it to go, and I’ve shown that in my past fights. I’m excited, he’s shown he has potential, but he has not faced anybody like me. So, I’m stoked to get in there.

Ellenberger has the attention of fans, fighters and especially his opponent heading into UFC on Fox 8. We’ll find out in a little more than a week if he can make good on his words.

**All quotes obtained first hand by Bleacher Report

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Brendan Schaub Is a ‘Sad Panda’ After Matt Mitrione Pulls out of UFC on Fox 8

UFC heavyweight Brendan Schaub has expressed his frustration after losing his spot at UFC on Fox 8 later this month due to an injury to his opponent, Matt Mitrione.
The two former The Ultimate Fighter teammates were supposed to meet on July 27, but it …

UFC heavyweight Brendan Schaub has expressed his frustration after losing his spot at UFC on Fox 8 later this month due to an injury to his opponent, Matt Mitrione.

The two former The Ultimate Fighter teammates were supposed to meet on July 27, but it was reported on Thursday that Mitrione was injured in training.

Schaub spoke to Fight Hub TV:

“I’m a sad panda right now, straight up… I just got done with camp. Matt Mitrione pulled out yesterday so, it’s a killer for me.”

Up until this year, the two heavyweights were struggling in the division, having lost two fights in a row with possible dismissals from the promotion looming. In February, Schaub arrested his losing streak with a win over Lavar Johnson at UFC 157. Mitrione did the same in April against Phil De Fries.

Since then, Mitrione has been waging a Twitter war against his opponent in an effort to drum up interest in the contest. But from Schaub’s comments, it seems the two are still firm friends.

“I don’t know what’s up with Matt. Hopefully he gets better,” said Schaub. “I hope it’s not serious. I hope he’s all right; he’s a buddy… I text him, make sure he’s all right, I heard from him.”

Nevertheless, Schaub doesn’t hide his frustration at losing the opportunity to fight his friend, especially due to the cost of his training camp. He told Fight Hub TV that he flew training partners and coaches in from all over the place in preparation for the contest.

Those training partners included Lyoto Machida and Chael Sonnen. His one consolation is that he’s come out of the camp an improved fighter.

Schaub says that he’d like to fight Mitrione later in the year at UFC 165, which takes place in Toronto in September.

If he does make it to that card, he’ll be on below a Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson light heavyweight championship main event.

And, in the meantime, he can take some of that striking knowledge he’s accumulated from Machida to help the Ring of Champions Society in Manchester, who are currently looking to take young fighters the 2016 Olympics.

 

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