Tag: UFC+131

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VANCOUVER, British Columbia – Late Friday night a taxi crammed full of men in Canucks jerseys rounded a downtown street corner just as the man in the front passenger seat stuck his head out the window and asked a passing stranger, ‘Hey, who won the game?’

This got laughs all down the block. Canadian hockey humor.

As if the massive victory celebration wasn’t obvious even to passing aircraft. As if you could be anywhere in Vancouver and not get swept up in the throng after the Canucks beat the Boston Bruins on Friday night to go up 3-2 in the Stanley Cup finals.

Even for the world’s biggest MMA organization, that’s tough to compete with. That’s why it’s smart for UFC president Dana White to try and swim with the tide on this one rather than against it.

“The thing about coming up to Canada, people love the hockey up here,” White told reporters following the UFC 131 pre-fight press conference on Thursday. “It’s the only thing anybody cares about. It’s part of this culture. They treat us so well here, I feel like we’re the number two sport behind hockey. So when they’ve got their championship going on, I absolutely respect that, a hundred percent.”

That’s good, because he really has no choice.

White did the smart thing by professing to the local media his respect and admiration for hockey players’ skill and toughness – though he also felt it necessary to express his utter disdain for soccer, for some reason. By cozying up to the hockey fever that has gripped Vancouver, maybe he can get a little of the media magic to rub off on his own sporting event at the Rogers Centre tonight.

It’s already worked to some degree. For instance, the weigh-in staredown between Boston native Kenny Florian (clad in a Bruins jersey) and Brazilian Diego Nunes (who conveniently became a Canucks supporter) made a brief appearance during Friday night’s hockey broadcast. As long as the Canucks are the big story – if not the only story – why not see if you can piggyback on it?

The question is, how much money and/or sporting enthusiasm do fans here have left after last night’s post-game debauchery? Well into early Saturday morning the sound of car horns honking and vuvuzelas – what’s the word…vuvuzela-ing? – wafted through the streets. Canucks fans drank and danced in the streets, and nobody got more than half a block without being forced to high-five or hug at least three strangers.

But now that the bar tabs have been paid and the hangovers have settled in, even this rowdy bunch likely needs a little quiet time.

White insists that too much is being made of all this, of course, and he’s at least partially right.

“Everybody’s talking like this thing is a disaster,” he said on Thursday. “It’s not. We’re happy to be here and the show’s going to be successful.”

At the same time, it isn’t likely to sell out. You also have to wonder how many ticket-holders will be in their seats when the first fights start up at around 3 p.m. local time, and how many will still be rehydrating and trying to figure out which bar they left their credit cards at (not that I’m judging – we’ve all been there).

Is that disastrous for the UFC? No. Inconvenient? A little.

It’s still a good card, and it will probably still draw a good crowd of fans who either celebrated in moderation last night or else just love MMA more than they hate pounding headaches. Maybe some will even decide to keep the party going all the way until fight time, though that could get ugly by the time we get to the main event.

The UFC might as well join ’em, since there’s no way it can beat ’em. Not in Vancouver, and not this week.

And who knows, maybe there are some hockey fans who will show up or tune in just in the hopes of seeing the Boston boy Florian get beat up. If there’s anything that can match this city’s love for the Canucks right now, it’s their hatred of the Bruins.

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Filed under: UFC

UFC 131 features a lot of close betting lines and at least one that is bizarrely longer than I expected, but that only makes it more fun to break down the odds as we prepare for Saturday night’s fights.

Join me below as we sort through the main card action, and one or two interesting opportunities on the prelims.

Shane Carwin (+130) vs. Junior dos Santos (-170)

There’s too many variables for anyone to feel totally certain that they know how this will go down. Both have had long layoffs, but Carwin’s the only one who missed significant gym time because of it. We know JDS can box, but we’ve yet to see him against a quality wrestler with Carwin’s power. It’s a tough fight to call for the very same reasons that it ought to be a great fight to watch. Honestly, your best bet is to see if you can find any oddsmaker offering prop bets on whether it will go longer than one round. Personally, I don’t see it happening.
My pick: Carwin. Especially with the odds such that you can make a decent profit off him, he’s the pick that makes the most sense here.

Kenny Florian (-325) vs. Diego Nunes (+250)

Oddsmakers have a lot of faith in Florian, even though none of us have ever seen him make 145 pounds, let alone compete at it. We’ll know more about how the cut is treating him after today’s weigh-ins, but just on Nunes skill and Florian’s weight-dropping x-factor, it’s hard to resist a 2 ½ – 1 line on Nunes. In straight-up picks, I’d still go with Florian. But if you’re going to offer me these kinds of odds I have to think twice. Expect it to drop big time if Florian does indeed look like Christian Bale in ‘The Machinist’ when he gets on the scales.
My pick: Nunes. We know Florian was in for a rough weight cut, and Nunes is no joke. Oddsmakers may have gotten a little carried away here.

Jon Olav Einemo (+155) vs. Dave Herman (-185)

Einemo hasn’t fought in nearly five years and Herman hasn’t exactly faced the cream of the crop before getting called in to essentially fill in for Shane Carwin here, so it’s tough to know what to make of either man. I can, however, tell you that I got a glimpse of Einemo getting a workout in last night in the UFC‘s host hotel, and he looks like an absolute monster. A guy his size with his Abu Dhabi grappling credentials would be terrifying with even decent stand-up, which you have to assume he has after spending time at Golden Glory. Herman? He’s showed flashes of real talent in the past, but who knows if he can do it against a quality opponent on short notice?
My pick: Einemo. When it’s a toss-up like this, you don’t need much motivation to go with the more profitable of the two choices.

Demian Maia (-105) vs. Mark Munoz (-125)

This is the toughest fight to pick on the card, and the odds reflect that. Maia’s jiu-jitsu game makes him a constant threat, whereas Munoz has the dangerous combo of great wrestling and heavy hands. Chances are that these two ground specialists will end up spending a disproportionate amount of time on the feet, which favors Munoz’s one-punch power.
My pick: Munoz. I think this will go a few rounds, but Munoz’s strength and resiliency will win out in the end. I’ll save it for the parlay with these odds, though.

Donald Cerrone (-525) vs. Vagner Rocha (+305)

Here’s one where the oddsmakers and I are in total agreement. Unless he’s felled by a sudden brain aneurysm, Cerrone wins this fight just about any way he wants. The last time I saw Rocha fight was on the prelims of the Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum card. He lost an unimpressive decision to “The Angry Hick,” Brett Bergmark, and he’s going to be facing a much better and even angrier “Cowboy” on Saturday night. Betting on late replacement underdogs is always a questionable choice to begin with, but you lay your money on this longshot at your peril.
My pick: Cerrone. He’s come so far in the last couple years, and he still has more improving to do. This ought to be a showcase fight for him.

Quick picks:

– Yves Edwards (-120) over Sam Stout (+150). It’s a great match-up that could go either way, but Edwards seems dialed in lately. The longer this goes, the more I favor the Thug-Jitsu master.

– Nick Ring (-130) over James Head (even). There’s not much profit in it, but I expect Ring to wipe out the memory of his mediocre first performance in the UFC.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Carwin + Munoz + Cerrone + Edwards

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