The UFC’s lightweight division has passed the point of being a proverbial shark tank. There is a long list of fighters who are waiting in the wings to challenge champion Anthony Pettis.
Rafael dos Anjos is just one of those fighters who can lay claim to that top contender’s spot. However, he has to get past Nate Diaz at UFC on Fox 13 on Saturday first. When looking at both of these men, they each have specific pathways to follow for victory.
Diaz vs. Dos Anjos is an interesting take on the striker vs. grappler matchup. Nate battles much like his brother Nick, looking to overwhelm his opponent with constant boxing combinations and forcing him to either fold under the storm or make a bad attempt on a takedown. Once the fight hits the floor, Diaz can then show off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops that have helped him earn 11 of his 17 wins.
However, Dos Anjos is not to be outdone on the mat.
The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has eight submission victories of his own. However, that should not be considered his best route to victory. In fact, he should use his BJJ as a deterrent once this fight hits the mat in order to stave off any attacks that Diaz might attempt. Instead, Dos Anjos should lean on his developing wrestling and kickboxing abilities to secure the win.
He has looked like a different fighter in many of his recent bouts. Based on his performance statistics provided by FightMetric, he has had a lot of success when he has scored multiple takedowns. One one hand, in four of his five defeats within the Octagon, his opponents took him down and controlled the positioning of the bout. On the other hand, in seven of his victories, he scored more than two takedowns of his own.
Diaz has never been known as much of a wrestling artist. In fact, he has two total takedowns in his last eight fights while defending only 45 percent of takedowns sent his way, via FightMetric.
This dynamic will give Dos Anjos the edge when it comes to the wrestling, but the question still remains as to how well his striking will compare to Diaz’s volume game. Diaz consistently overwhelms opponents with his pressure and boxing. If he can control the range of this fight and pressure Dos Anjos into bad spots, that will help him avoid being smothered on the mat. While Dos Anjos has only been stopped twice in his career—once by TKO and once by submission—Diaz has the ability to pile up the points on strikes.
The question coming into Dos Anjos vs. Diaz is where this fight will take place. If Diaz can control the range, he will have a better shot at picking up the win. However, if Dos Anjos can weather the storm, score takedowns and pepper Diaz with leg kicks, he will claim an important decision victory at a time when the lightweight division is starting to open up for new title contenders.
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