Anderson “The Spider” Silva is back. If you’re a fan of the legendary mixed martial artist, feel free to cheer him on at UFC 183 when he takes on Nick Diaz. However, if you’re a DraftKings player, you’d be better off avoiding this fight altogether.
At age 39, coming off a major injury and facing another noteworthy opponent like Diaz—who is also coming off a layoff—there’s too many variables involved to feel confident about a prediction.
Will Silva still have his mental and physical edge? Does Diaz still want to compete, or is this simply a paycheck for him? The questions are almost endless, and thus so is the risk. It’s tempting, but look to other fights on the card to fill out your lineup and watch the main event as a fan without a monetary interest.
In DK MMA, it’s all about picking as many winners as your salary allotment will allow. With that concept in mind, here are the top five picks for UFC 183.
(In case you’re new to DK MMA, click here to see a breakdown of the scoring system.)
Derek Brunson, $11,700 (opponent: Ed “Short Fuse” Herman)
Brunson was scheduled to take on Herman at UFC on Fox 13, but a bout with food poisoning pushed it back until Saturday. Brunson will make up for lost time and deliver a short night for Short Fuse. Luca Fury points out Brunson‘s imperfections, but also doesn’t see Herman as an opponent able to take advantage of opportunities.
In his last fight, Brunson beat Lorenz Larkin by unanimous decision, and two of his three losses have come to two of the UFC’s elite: Yoel Romero and Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.
Brunson is a dangerous striker with underrated wrestling. His opponent is a submission-style fighter who will be looking to take this fight to the mat. The problem for him will be getting inside to engage. Brunson‘s explosiveness will make that difficult.
He’s the superior athlete, younger and far and away the better striker. Per Fight Metric, Brunson will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage that will only augment his edge in the stand-up game.
If this were a confidence pool, Brunson would have the highest point value next to his name. To maximize your points, you have to have him in your lineup.
Jordan Mein, $10,200 (opponent: Thiago “Pitbull” Alves)
Just below Brunson on the confidence chart is Mein. At one time Alves would have been the favorite in this bout. He’s now just one fight in to his return to the UFC after a two-year absence from the sport.
The rust showed in his win over Seth Baczynski in April 2014. Alves came out on top via unanimous decision, but he lacked the explosiveness that was once a trademark for him.
Mein on the other hand has looked great since losing by TKO to Matt Brown in April 2013. He’s 2-0 with his most-recent win coming via vicious KO over the experienced Mike Pyle in Aug. 2014.
There will also be a huge length advantage in this bout. Mein is three inches taller and has a five-inch edge in reach. He’s also the more accurate striker (44 percent to 41), and he’s shown better in defense by blocking 72 percent of the strikes thrown at him, compared to 65 percent for Alves.
This goes deeper than the numbers, though. Mein is 25 and on the uptick in his career. Alves is only 31, but he seems older because of cage wars and rough life experiences. He’s trying to salvage what he can from a time that has passed.
Mein wins this one via second-round stoppage. A strike or series of strikes that leads to a submission would be my bet. Whether by TKO or submission, it still equals a solid fantasy performance.
Tyron Woodley, $9,700 (opponent Kelvin Gastelum)
This is one heck of a matchup, but it’s one Woodley will win. If you doubted whether Woodley was the real deal after watching Rory MacDonald dismantle him at UFC 174 in June 2014, the Missouri native swiftly answered those concerns with a dominant TKO win over Dong Hyun Kim in Aug. 2014.
Woodley is clearly one of the elite welterweights in the world and as dangerous as they come.
Gastelum is no slouch in his own right. He’s yet to taste defeat in his MMA career, but on Saturday, his streak will end.
As technically sound as Gastelum can be and as much heart as he possesses, he’ll be in the Octagon with a quicker, stronger and more explosive striker. Woodley‘s wrestling prowess also trumps Gastelum‘s, and thus this fight could have an explosive finish.
Woodley gets the win by KO in the second round despite having a lower salary than his opponent.
Tom Watson, $9,300 (opponent Rafael Natal)
We’re past the section of the predictions where the picks are being made with supreme confidence. Truth be told, Rafael Natal should beat Watson, but he won’t.
Despite good athleticism and a wealth of experience, Natal is one of the bigger underachievers in the UFC. He probably saved himself from cut consideration with a narrow split-decision win over Chris Camozzi in Sept. 2014. He had lost two-straight fights before that.
Natal has a tendency to fall into lulls and he also displays careless defense at times. The latter tendency led to KO losses to Tim Kennedy and Andrew Craig. Watson is a seek-and-destroy fighter who has never been stopped on strikes in his career.
Even if Natal happens to pull out the win, the chances that he stops Watson don’t seem high. Thus the damage to your point potential would be lowered.
John Lineker, $8,900 (opponent Ian McCall)
This is another makeup bout as a blood infection forced McCall out of his Nov. 2014 scrap with Lineker. To add to the physical woes, McCall has also had three surgeries on his hand in a year’s time.
These are significant ailments for a fighter heading into a bout with a young, hungry and dangerous opponent like Lineker. Were all things considered equal from a health standpoint, the pick would be McCall by decision, but taking into consideration the layoff, the injuries and the toughness of his opponent, McCall looks to be headed for a loss.
Like the Watson-Natal bout; were McCall able to return to form and beat Lineker, he’s not likely to stop him on strikes. There’s a chance a submission victory could take place, but the more likely result is a decision win for Lineker on more effective striking.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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