Things did not go so well for Cain Velasquez at UFC 188. While the UFC constructed a card in Mexico City designed to showcase its heavyweight champion, Fabricio Werdum threw a wrench into its promotional plans by defeating Velasquez with an impressive third-round guillotine choke.
It was a huge swerve for MMA fans.
While Werdum was always regarded as a game competitor, Velasquez’s elite wrestling and athleticism had many predicting a lengthy title reign. The surprise outcome leaves many asking, “What the heck went wrong?”
So why not dive into the fight and pinpoint the key areas where Velasquez struggled?
Shallow Gas Tank
At UFC 155, Velasquez faced Junior Dos Santos in an effort to retake the heavyweight title. That was the fight where Velasquez truly earned the goofy-but-fitting “Cardio Cain” nickname. The fight saw Velasquez deliver one of the most lopsided beatdowns in UFC history.
Even in Round 5, he had the energy to push, pull and drag Dos Santos around the cage on takedown attempts.
At UFC 188, however, Velasquez looked spent before the first horn sounded.
There are plenty of possible explanations for this. Competing at high altitudes without proper preparation certainly does suck the life out of fighters. Velasquez may have sustained an injury during training and tried to fight through it.
Werdum’s knees in the clinch are designed to shave minutes off opponents’ window of efficacy.
Either way, a tired Velasquez is a Velasquez who concedes his greatest strength. If his cardio doesn’t come back in a big way, don’t expect him to reinsert himself into the discussion of greatest heavyweights of all time.
Limited Wrestling Output
There is a uniquely effective symbiosis between Velasquez’s cardio, striking and wrestling.
His cardio allows him to oppressively smother opponents with his wrestling. His wrestling forces opponents to give up openings for his striking. His striking along the cage and on the ground wears down opponents, making his cardio advantage all the more obvious.
Something came out of whack, however, and the biggest, most obvious result was a lack of effective grappling from Velasquez.
Velasquez is traditionally a takedown machine, averaging a whopping 5.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, while he managed to take Werdum down four times, he didn’t land a single significant strike on the ground and only landed 26 percent of his strikes in the clinch.
That lack of potency was disastrous at every level. Even if Velasquez avoided getting finished by Werdum, he was looking at a back-and-forth slugfest that judges could have scored either way.
Not an ideal situation for a once-dominant heavyweight champ.
Sloppy Striking
The most accurate evaluation of a fighter’s skill set always comes after a long winning streak is capped with an emphatic loss. This loss to Werdum shined a light on Velasquez’s well-known Achilles’ heel: his striking.
Velasquez has more than a few knockouts to his name, but his actual boxing has never been technically brilliant. Wrestling, however, is a great equalizer.
While he was able to comfortably throw hands with a formidable striker in Dos Santos, his inability to threaten Werdum with takedowns resulted in an ugly, sloppy brawl where he absorbed a whopping 96 significant strikes.
With that in mind, it’s hard not to think back on how he was repeatedly wobbled by Cheick Kongo, how he has yet to really successfully engage with an above-average striker at range or how he was cleanly knocked out by Dos Santos.
Under ideal circumstances, he doesn’t have to stand and trade with anybody. This, however, was the first time we have seen Velasquez outside his comfort zone…and it did not look good.
Statistics courtesy of FightMetric.
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