Floyd Mayweather and Conor McGregor have each carved out their spaces in combat sports history through skill, strategic marketing and a whole lot of money. On Saturday night, they’ll be making a whole lot more cash thanks to the hype they’ve built around their anticipated matchup.
The debate between MMA and boxing has raged on since the inception of MMA. In fact, the core question of which martial art is the most effective drove the creation of the sport. Now MMA has become big enough that its stars have enough crossover appeal to create what plenty of people will tune into on Saturday.
While the legitimacy of this fight is up for debate, the money that’s going to change hands is not. Thanks to the backing of his extremely loyal following, McGregor has become a reasonable underdog against the boxing great.
Justin Hartling of OddsShark provided some context for just how high the odds have become for the Notorious:
Since that tweet, the odds have actually even drawn closer. Mayweather is now just a -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100), per OddsShark.
The question, of course, is whether these close odds actually resemble the Irishman’s odds of defeating Mayweather or if they are a product of the hype that he’s created. McGregor’s usual bravado and prognostication have been consistent on social media, and it’s easy to fall into believing what he says when he’s been so right before.
McGregor has made a habit out of calling his shot, and he’s generally been accurate. On an appearance on Conan O’Brien’s TBS talk show, he proclaimed he would beat Mayweather within four rounds:
That’s a bold prediction, but he isn’t the only one promising to come forward on Saturday night. Mayweather—a master of promotion in his own right—has said he’ll be looking to make this one more exciting than previous Mayweather productions.
“I owe the fans now, since me and Pacquiao didn’t give the fans a blockbuster, me and McGregor will give the fans a blockbuster.” the 40-year-old said, per Danny Gallagher of the Daily Mail.
“He’s going to land shots because in this fight I’m going straight ahead. Normally it’s more taking my time, being very cautious, but this time I’m going straight ahead.”
Again, Mayweather is a master salesman and we’ve been burned by him before. If you’re paying for a Mayweather fight, it’s because you’re a fan of pure boxing ability or because you want to be watching live when he actually loses a bout.
If action is the objective, it’s a recipe for disappointment.
On the other hand, no MMA fan has ever seen a boring McGregor fight. Even in defeat, the Notorious goes out on his shield.
What it comes down to when choosing who to back on Saturday night is what one believes about McGregor.
The lefty has a puncher’s chance.
He’ll be the bigger man on Saturday night with a 2″ reach advantage and experience in the UFC’s 155 and 170-pound divisions he could wear on Mayweather long enough to create an opening. With 18 of his 21 wins coming by way of knockout in MMA, there’s power in those hands.
But a belief that the fight will end with McGregor standing over a knocked-out Mayweather also means you believe McGregor is capable of doing what the likes of Manny Pacquiao, Marcos Maidana and Canelo Alvarez couldn’t do.
That’s a tall order for someone who is making their professional debut against a man who is 49-0.
The much more likely scenario is that the multi-division boxing champion demonstrates the difference between high-level MMA striking and pure boxing. Mayweather isn’t beholden to his promises of coming forward.
He likely puts on a tactical boxing performance on the level of Randy Couture’s wrestling performance when a professional boxer in James Toney attempted to cross over to the world of MMA.
Getting Mayweather at some of the lowest odds in his recent career against a guy making up his debut is hard to pass up, even if it’s fathomable that McGregor pulls off the improbable.
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