The stage is set for UFC 219 as each fighter made weight during Friday’s weigh-ins, including fan favorite and top lightweight contender Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Many fight fans were able to breathe normally once Nurmagomedov tipped the scale at 155.5 pounds, proving that he means business Saturday night at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas against Edson Barboza.
Another fighter who has had a history of tough weight cuts is Cris Cyborg. She will be defending her featherweight title for the first time in the UFC against former bantamweight champion Holly Holm in the night’s main event.
The night’s co-main and main events can go either way, despite what the official odds might indicate. But before going into any more analysis regarding UFC 219’s main card, let’s take a quick look at this evening’s full slate of action inside of the Octagon with updated odds.
UFC 219 prelims (FS1, 8 p.m. ET)
Men’s light heavyweight: Khalil Rountree vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Men’s featherweight: Myles Jury (-260, bet $260 to win $100) vs. Rick Glenn (+200, bet $100 to win $200)
Men’s middleweight: Marvin Vettori (-225) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+175)
Men’s flyweight: Matheus Nicolau (-305) vs. Louis Smolka (+225)
UFC 219 main card (PPV, 10 p.m., ET)
Main event: Cris “Cyborg” Justino (-360) vs. Holly Holm (+270)
Co-main event: Khabib Nurmagomedov (-285) vs. Edson Barboza (+225)
Women’s Strawweight: Cynthia Calvillo (-260) vs. Carla Esparza (+200)
Men’s Welterweight: Carlos Condit (-165) vs. Neil Magny (+135)
Men’s Lightweight: Marc Diakiese (-185) vs. Dan Hooker (+150)
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Co-Main Event: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Edson Barboza
It’s a tale as old as time: The wrestler vs. the striker. Except in this featherweight title eliminator bout between Nurmagomedov and Barboza, these are two of the dangerous men in the UFC’s 155-pound division.
There is no easy way to explain how dominant Nurmagomedov is on the ground with his suffocating sambo. When Nurmagomedov wants to take you down, there’s little you can do about it. In his most recent fight against Michael Johnson over a year ago at UFC 205, Nurmagomedov was clipped for seemingly the first time in his UFC career. However, he soon reestablished himself and took the fight to the ground, pummeling Johnson up against the cage.
Johnson was left helpless as Nurmagomedov continued to punish him, even telling him at one point to simply give up in the fight.
Nurmagomedov will look to do the same against Barboza and take the fight to the ground. But against a fighter as explosive as Barboza, that’s easier said than done.
If Nurmagomedov hesitates for even a split second on a takedown attempt, the fight could be over in an instant courtesy of a Barboza flying knee or kick. Barboza is the only fighter in UFC history to have two stoppage victories due to leg kicks, including the organization’s first-ever spinning wheel kick knockout.
The game plan is simple for both fighters. For Nurmagomedov, he has to bring the fight to the ground. For Barboza, the fight has to stay on its feet for him to win. At the end of the day, nobody has come close to beating Nurmagomedov, who really makes it looks easy inside of the Octagon.
Look for Barboza to test Nurmagomedov early in the first round by establishing distance with leg kicks and a jab, but Nurmagomedov will soon get his timing down to shoot for a double-leg takedown and bring the fight to the canvas.
From there, Barboza will struggle to break free of his opponent’s grip on the ground, as he won’t be able to survive more than two rounds of punishment before he is submitted by a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov defeats Barboza via submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round.
Main Event: Cris Cyborg vs. Holly Holm
It’s possible that no fighter has more to gain or lose than Holly Holm at UFC 219.
With a win over Cyborg, Holm will have wins over Ronda Rousey and Cyborg on her resume, along with being a two-division champion in the UFC, vaulting her into the greatest female MMA fighter of all time. But if she loses, she will have lost four of her last five fights, including three title fights.
While Holm’s incredible boxing career and kickboxing skills may give her an advantage against Cyborg, there’s little else she brings to the table besides looking for a knockout.
Holm’s strikes are some of the best in MMA, regardless of weight division or gender. But Cyborg isn’t just a brawler who fights at 100 miles per hour, she’s also a technical striker who has a strong background in muay thai, not to mention her black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu or multiple world titles in BJJ.
In order for Holm to be successful in the fight, she’ll have to create distance between herself and Cyborg to land her kicks and open up Cyborg. However, that’s not Cybrog’s fighting style.
Cyborg likes to close the distance and suffocate her opponent, backing them up against the cage while she bears down on her opposition like a lion preys on a gazelle. But if Cyborg doesn’t want to risk the chance of Holm finding an opening on the feet, she can bring the game to the ground and use her superior BJJ against her.
For as good as Holm is on the feet, she still has a lot of work to do on the ground. Stuffing takedowns and practicing submission defense is one thing, but going up against a black belt as strong and tenacious as Cyborg is a whole other ballgame.
Don’t be surprised to see Cyborg bring the fight to the ground early to wear down Holm and make her gas out. Holm will be able to get back to her feet toward the end of the first round, but she will have sustained a lot of damage to the body, leaving her gasping for air in between rounds.
In the second, Holm will look to open up with some body kicks to keep Cyborg at bay, but Cyborg will elude Holm’s attacks as she closes the distance and gets in the clinch with Holm, where she will deliver some vicious muay thai elbows and knees to the body.
Cyborg will begin to tee-off on Holm, who won’t be able to withstand the barrage of strikes on the feet until the referee puts an end to the beatdown in the second round.
Prediction: Cyborg defeats Holm via TKO (strikes) in the second round.
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