UFC 139: Who Does the UFC Want to Win, Cain Velasquez or Junior Dos Santos?

The UFC is a sports organization, but it’s also a business. The UFC no doubt hopes that some fighters are in the limelight more than others. The heavyweight title bout between champion Cain Velasquez and challenger Junior Dos Santos is no exception&mda…

The UFC is a sports organization, but it’s also a business. The UFC no doubt hopes that some fighters are in the limelight more than others. The heavyweight title bout between champion Cain Velasquez and challenger Junior Dos Santos is no exception—it’s just that the line isn’t as clear-cut as it is with most fights.

In many high profile fights, there is a definite “good guy” and a definite “bad guy.” To put it in terms that exclude any sort of moral entanglements, there is usually a fighter who is better marketing-wise who will generate more money for the UFC with a victory.

For example, it was fortuitous for the UFC when Andrei Arlovski managed to defeat Tim Sylvia at UFC 51. Arlovski had a lot of hype behind him and had a marketable look (the long hair, the vampire fangs and the muscular physique). Sylvia, on the other hand, was kind of flabby and had no real charisma to speak of.

A more recent example would be Anderson Silva‘s victory over Yushin Okami at UFC 134. While Silva isn’t the biggest draw amongst champions, Okami’s unpopular style and inability to speak English (which Silva doesn’t speak either but at least he is more exciting) would draw even less attention and therefore pay-per-view buys.

Unfortunately, Velasquez vs. Dos Santos isn’t as easy to figure out as either of these fights or perhaps any fight in the UFC’s history—at least after it was announced that the fight would take place on the FOX network.

Before the fight was scheduled to be on FOX, it was relatively easy to figure out who the UFC would want to win.

Cain Velasquez is being billed as the UFC’s first “Mexican” heavyweight champion and has stolen the considerable amount of thunder from Brock Lesnar. Thus, it would be beneficial for the UFC’s expansion efforts into the Mexican and Latin American markets if Cain Velasquez defeated Dos Santos.

Having a Mexican heavyweight champion would be an enormous catalyst for the UFC’s expansion into the aforementioned markets and stealing potential boxing fans away from the last bastion(s) of boxing would put yet another nail into the decrepit sport’s coffin.

While a Dos Santos victory would help the UFC’s renewed expansion efforts in Brazil, those efforts hardly need help; the UFC is planning to sell out a 100,000 seat arena there in 2012. There are plenty more Brazilians to help them do that besides Dos Santos.

However, the fact that the fight will now take place on FOX changes the dynamic considerably.

Now that the fight is on FOX, there is considerable pressure for the fight to be exciting, palatable to the unwashed MMA masses in the same way that first fight between Forrest Griffin vs. Stephan Bonnar was.

While Velasquez has very good striking, his forte is wrestling—which also happens to be the biggest question mark surrounding Dos Santos. Thus, Velasquez must smother Dos Santos with wrestling in order to maximize the odds that he will be victorious.

Unfortunately, wrestling is the hardest martial art in mixed martial arts for the “casual fan” (who will no doubt be watching since the fight is free on FOX) to understand. A 25-minute long wrestling clinic could spell disaster for the UFC’s debut on FOX.

On the other hand, Dos Santos has amazing striking abilities and is one of the very best technical boxers in the UFC. If Dos Santos is to win, it will likely be by a knockout (perhaps by using his fearsome uppercut).

Amongst the “casual fan,” the knockout will always be king. If the fans tune into the UFC on FOX and see a slugfest that ends with an epic knockout, they will walk away pleased…but not if the knockout is so quick that they feel unfulfilled. If the fight is too short the finicky casual fans will be dissatisfied!

Therefore, there is no easy answer to who the UFC wants to win this fight.

What matters more is how the fight is won. If the fight is over too soon, or is a long “lay and pray” fest, then the UFC’s image will be in peril. If the fight is won after a contest of epic proportions, then the UFC will reach new heights and Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos will become akin to living gods.

 

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