Featherweight Championship: José Aldo (champion) vs Chad Mendes
It’s cliche at this point as any opponent that a champion faces next should be his toughest opponent to date, but truly Mendes poses the biggest threat Aldo has faced yet. Toughest opponent in terms of winning, not in damage. See Mendes is a wrestler who likes to the control the fight and kill clock from the top side. He has won 80% of the time via decision and always by decision against top competition. Conditioning has never been a problem in any fight I’ve seen. He likes to control the pace tiring out his opponents in typical wrestler fashion.
Aldo will have problems that he didn’t have against Faber. While Aldo was able to keep a takedown-timid Faber away with leg kicks, Mendes is much more risk taking and will walk through some strikes to get his take down. Its everything to Mendes.
Aldo will be on his back, the question will be for how long. The likelihood of Mendes controlling all 5 rounds against one of the best fighters in all of MMA is going to be tough, but I think Mendes can squeak out 3 of them.
Aldo has closed 12 out of 20 fights before the 3rd round. He is a great striker and great jiujitsu player too. His wrestling has gotten better for sure. One thing though is that he has taken his last few fights the distance, but won the decision in all. He was recently injured too, maybe this is part of it.
Mendes here at roughly +200 is decent value.
Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson
Will the length be the problem for Belfort? Johnson makes a huge weight cut to make every fight. Belfort needs to get back on the winning side. Both fighters are excellent strikers and have ended fights in the 1st round on more than 5 occasions.
Odds have this as a pickem. If you can find Johnson in the underdog at your favorite bookmaker take it. Johnson is bigger and lengthier.
Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio
Rousimar Palhares. The style matchup favors Palhares. Fight is going to be on the ground and that is where Palhares lives.
Welterweight bout: Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater
No pick, but odds are crazy skewed for Silva. Prater is too risky to place anything on as he is up and down.
Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim
Barboza despite Etim’s rising star. Etim hasn’t been tested by a Barboza like fighter.
Preliminary card (FX)
Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs Sam Stout
Should be a great matchup.
Heavyweight bout: Gabriel Gonzaga vs Ednaldo Oliveira
I don’t know enough or seen Ednaldo to make a call. At a cursory look, he’s 6’7″ and a shitload of tko’s on his record. Gonzaga is always good for taking a big beating or dishing one out of his own. Oliveira looks dangerous though. Passing.
Featherweight bout: Yuri Alcantara vs Michihiro Omigawa
This fight is going Yuri’s way.
Welterweight bout: Ricardo Funch vs Mike Pyle
Pyle. Aside from Rory MacDonald loss, Pyle has shown a much better skillset and has improved his weak points.
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Featherweight bout: Felipe Arantes vs Antonio Carvalho
Pass