Author: Adam Wells

The UFC light heavyweight division has undergone a drastic change this year, but in many ways it is set up better to sell Saturday’s main event at UFC 192 between light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier and challenger Alexander Gustafsson. 

Even though Jon Jones was supposed to lead the division into the future, Cormier and Gustafsson aren’t bad alternatives. The champion has a 16-1 career record, with his only loss coming against Jones at UFC 182, and has been terrific since moving down to 205 pounds (3-1, two submissions). 

Gustafsson became a star following his 2013 title fight against Jones, a five-round unanimous-decision loss in which he took the champion to the mat and displayed incredible power and precision with his striking. 

However, Gustafsson has to rebuild his stock following a January loss against Anthony Johnson in which he was knocked out for the first time in his career. It’s not an ideal scenario to throw a contender into a title fight, but the 28-year-old certainly has the talent to give Cormier a challenge. 

 

Cormier Highlights, Strategy

As the tale of the tape shows, Cormier is at a height and reach disadvantage. The 36-year-old is short and stocky, but he has evolved his style in such a way that makes him one of the most dangerous fighters regardless of weight class. 

There also are few fighters who can claim to be as tough. Looking at highlights from Cormier‘s last fight against Johnson in May, via UFC on Fox, the first thing that jumps out is his ability to take a punch:

Johnson’s right hook catches Cormier square in the head and stuns him, yet the champion is able to keep his composure long enough to avoid letting Rumble get on top of him for an early finish. 

It’s not like Johnson lacks power, as 14 of his 20 career victories have come by (T)KO, making Cormier‘s ability to recover from that moment even more impressive. 

That will serve Cormier well heading into Saturday’s matchup with Gustafsson, who is another fighter seeking to brawl with anything that stands in his way.

Speaking to reporters, via Michael Martinez of UFC.com, Cormier left no doubt about his conviction in being able to match Gustafsson‘s ability to strike:

I believe I can box with (Gustafsson). There are ways to win fights, and sometimes you don’t always choose the easiest way to win. If it’s a boxing fight with Alex, I can hold my own. I believe I’ll be able to get on the inside with him. I believe that my hands are just as fast, if not faster, and I believe that I’ll hit with more power than he does. If it’s a stand-up fight, sure, why not? I’d enjoy that.

The other item from the highlight package that jumps out is Cormier‘s power. Immediately after it shows the punch, the cut jumps to Cormier carrying Johnson on his back before slamming him into the mat. 

That particular highlight also leads into an area where Cormier can shine, even though he doesn’t use it as often as he once did: wrestling. 

Cormier is a world-class wrestler who won gold medals at the 2002 Pan American Championships and 2003 Pan American Games and started his MMA career as more of a mat technician. 

Being able to develop as a striker has taken Cormier to the level he’s currently at, holding the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. He’s got great defense against striking and grappling, forcing opponents into frustration before taking his big chance to end the match. 

 

Gustafsson Highlights, Strategy

When your nickname is The Mauler, there’s no sense trying to dance around what you want to do. Gustafsson does actually have three submissions under his belt, though none have come since 2011. 

It’s hard to take issue with Gustafsson‘s strategy of just trying to pummel opponents into the mat. There aren’t many fighters in the 205-pound weight class who can match his combination of size (6’5″) and reach (79″). 

Highlight packages are built to show the best aspects of any given athlete, but they can also be illuminating in the proper context. 

For instance, look at this two-minute package put together by UFC Undisputed featuring Gustafsson:

It’s all standing and striking all the time, but look around the 85-second mark for the highlight from Gustafsson‘s showdown with Jones. Jones attempts to come in for a strike that is blocked, leaving Gustafsson little time and space to build impact for a counterpunch. 

But because Gustafsson is so strong, his right hand connects square on Jones’ left cheek and would have been enough to drop most fighters. That kind of force with so little reaction time is unique and special. 

If there is one fighter in UFC who defines true one-punch knockout power, it’s Gustafsson. His strategy against Cormier will be critical, though he told Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports he’s not afraid of getting into a wrestling match:

He is a high-caliber guy and I can’t compare myself to Jon Jones and other fighters, because we’re totally different fighters and different fighters make different fights. But I’ve done my homework. If he wants to wrestle, I’ll be ready to wrestle. If he wants to strike, I’ll be ready to strike. I’ll have an answer for whatever happens. He’ll probably take me down once or two times but I’ll get up. I’m ready to go toe-to-toe with Daniel Cormier. I’m ready.

As confident as Gustafsson sounds, it veers into hubris because he’s not a wrestler or mat technician. There are certainly matches in which he’s worked on the ground, but going against a superior all-around fighter isn’t going to make it easy to bounce right back up. 

Given Gustafsson‘s size advantage, it’s in Cormier‘s best interest to make this a mat fight. Gustafsson does have strong takedown defense, but he seemed to acknowledge there’s going to be moments when the fight is on the ground. 

Once things get on the mat, Cormier can stay on top and force Gustafsson to overextend himself and waste stamina just trying to get up. That will inhibit his power later in the fight, making it essential for the Swedish star to try ending things before the championship rounds.  

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The UFC’s red-hot summer continues Saturday night with Ronda Rousey defending the women’s bantamweight championship against undefeated challenger Bethe Correia at UFC 190 in Rio de Janeiro. 

All eyes will be on Rousey, who has become one of the world’s biggest sports stars and has needed a grand total of 96 seconds to win each of her last three fights. She has been taken past the first round only one time in 11 career fights, finishing all of her opponents with nine submissions and two knockouts.

Correia doesn’t boast that kind of resume, but she has won all nine fights in her career, three in the UFC, and earned this title shot after defeating Shayna Baszler—one of MMA‘s four horsewomen, which include Rousey—by technical knockout at UFC 177.

No one will be expecting Correia to win, though she always has a shot because punchers have the ability to score a knockout in a hurry. There’s no secret to what Rousey will try to do, but no one has been able to stop it thus far.

 

What They Are Saying

Rousey has reached rarefied air in mixed martial arts, similar to where Anderson Silva was from 2006 to 2012. She’s become a fascinating novelty act with the talent to back it up, which is a difficult pairing that few athletes can claim.

The UFC has lost a lot of its top stars for one reason or another in the last two years. Silva is suspended for failing two drug tests. Georges St-Pierre hasn’t fought since November 2013 and has given no indication that he will ever return. Jon Jones is indefinitely suspended while he works through various problems outside the Octagon.

Developing new marquee superstars is now more important to the UFC than ever. Rousey and Conor McGregor look like the new torchbearers for the sport, which is why a loss for Rousey in this spot would hurt the company.

Yet Rousey is so versatile that losing wouldn’t ruin her career or drawing power, as Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports noted:

She’s a dominant athlete. She’s a terrific interview. She’s witty and wise-cracking, trash-talking and insightful. She’s attractive. And much like Oscar De La Hoya did when he rose to pay-per-view stardom in the mid-to-late 1990s, she brings a different audience from the standard fight crowd.

Rousey has a great following among women, and they buy her fights in larger numbers than they do for others.

As logical and true as that is, there’s a mystique following Rousey around right now because of how she is winning and that magical zero in the loss column. That does mean something in a combat sport, as Rocky Marciano and Floyd Mayweather Jr. can attest. 

Rousey’s willingness to provide a quote, such as the one she provided to Damon Martin of Fox Sports about needing the rest of the division to come up to her level, does make her a dream athlete:

I need these other girls. It’s not like I could do this by myself. I need a dancing partner. The analogy I use a lot is these girls are like plants — sometimes you can grow a crop and harvest it year after year like Miesha and sometimes you harvest it once and it will never grow back, like I don’t think Bethe will ever come back after this.

With Rousey looking for challengers, it’s telling that this far into the preview, not a lot has been said about her opponent.

Correia isn’t the opponent anyone would have handpicked for a title shot, but as Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated noted, she figured out how to play the game after defeating Baszler:

The show apparently earned a thumbs-up from UFC reviewers/matchmakers because the Brazilian was given a shot on her weight division’s most brightly lit stage without a single top-10 victory. A rationale for this: Rousey already has beaten six of the nine women behind her in the SI.com bantamweight rankings, two others just lost fights, and the one remaining is Correia.

No one is giving Correia a chance to win this fight. She’s a 12-1 underdog, per Odds Shark, and doesn’t have a victory over an opponent currently ranked among UFC.com‘s top 15 women’s bantamweight fighters.

The combination of Correia’s anonymity and her opponent’s quick-finish ability will make a victory possible for the challenger only if she can force this fight into the final minute of the first round.

Correia does have stats to suggest she can give Rousey a challenge, based on how the champion prefers to fight.

Again, even trying to make a case for Correia, she has never gone against a fighter in the same realm as Rousey. Her three UFC opponents have a combined career record of 34-26, including 1-7 in the UFC. 

It’s impossible to draw a parallel between Correia’s ascent and Rousey’s before she became a superstar because Correia isn’t destroying opponents. Rousey dominated four Strikeforce opponents in the first round before defeating Miesha Tate to win the bantamweight title in March 2012. 

 

Main Event Prediction

There are a lot of arguments about the biggest upset in UFC history as of this moment. Matt Serra knocking out St-Pierre in 2007 is up there. Renan Barao’s loss to TJ Dillashaw in May 2014 is the most recent fight that can make a case for falling into that category.

Yet any argument would stop and start with Correia defeating Rousey if it were to happen at UFC 190. The champion is operating at a different level than anyone else in the women’s division right now. If it takes you longer to walk to the cage than it does to win your last three fights, things are going well. 

Correia’s best chance to win this fight is catching Rousey with a hard punch that fazes her early, and she’s able to keep bringing the heat with her fists and avoid going to the ground. No one has been able to do it thus far, though, so don’t expect anything different now.

The good news is that the fight will take longer than 15 seconds, though not by much.

Prediction: Rousey wins via first-round submission.

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