Author: Adam Wells

UFC 194: Latest Aldo vs. McGregor Odds, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-in Hype

The long-awaited, much-anticipated featherweight championship bout between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor finally happens on Saturday at UFC 194. 
The UFC originally scheduled a matchup between Aldo and McGregor at UFC 189 in July, but Aldo suffered…

The long-awaited, much-anticipated featherweight championship bout between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor finally happens on Saturday at UFC 194. 

The UFC originally scheduled a matchup between Aldo and McGregor at UFC 189 in July, but Aldo suffered a rib injury in training that forced him to withdraw from the fight. McGregor kept his place on the card, knocking out Chad Mendes in the second round to win the interim featherweight title. 

Because both fighters are recognized as titleholders, the UFC is promoting this as champion vs. champion. Aldo is listed as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world on the UFC’s official website, with McGregor at No. 12. 

McGregor doesn’t have to validate his standing in the sport, but there may not be a fighter who takes more pleasure in proving everyone wrong. He’s going to be aware of where the UFC has him ranked compared to Aldo and use it as extra motivation for the fight. 

 

Pre-Weigh-In Hype

McGregor enters the fight with all the hype because of his ability inside the Octagon, as well as his charisma on the microphone, but many are ignoring the vast body of work Aldo has built up over years of fighting. 

It’s not like Aldo is an old fighter, either. He’s just 29 years old—22 months older than McGregor—and hasn’t lost since November 2005.

Offering a prediction to Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com, Urijah Faber outlined some of the ways Aldo will give McGregor problems:

The more well-rounded guy is Jose Aldo. We saw the way Chad Mendes was able to handle Conor on the ground. He didn’t offer much from his back and didn’t offer much takedown defense. In the stand-up realm, I think it’s very close. Conor is a seasoned, fluid striker. Aldo is explosive. I think Aldo does a better job of using all his limbs — knees, elbows and kicks. I lean toward Aldo, but if it stays standing, it’s anybody’s fight.

Aldo has been more methodical since transitioning to UFC, recording just two stoppages in seven fights, but there is knockout power in his strikes when he really digs in. 

Frankie Edgar, who was on the receiving end of one of Aldo’s beatings at UFC 156, doesn’t understand why Aldo is the underdog in this bout, per MMA Noise (via MMAMania.com):

Anything can happen, McGregor has definitely been holding his own in there and doing it in pretty good fashion. But, I think Aldo is going to take it. Yeah, you just can’t talk about it if you don’t back it up because you will be forgotten about and people won’t want to hear what you’re saying. He’s been backing it up. I think he’s had some good matchups for himself and some favorable situations where Chad’s coming in on short notice, but, this is going to be the biggest test for him.

McGregor’s star is certainly on the rise, thanks in large part to four consecutive wins by TKO. He’s become one of UFC’s most marketable assets, which increases the pressure on him coming into Saturday night. 

However, speaking to Steven Marrocco and John Morgan of MMAJunkie.com, McGregor is going to take a lesson from Ronda Rousey’s recent defeat to Holly Holm to manage expectations:

Holly came out of the dark – in the shadows – and that can help a person. Have you ever seen ‘Rocky 3?’ Rocky was doing ads and doing talk shows and doing this and doing that while Clubber Lang was coming up in the shadows, hungry. I felt maybe that was a reference to that fight.

There aren’t many fighters in the world who would pull out a Rocky III reference, but McGregor certainly does have a point. He’s making the media rounds and selling this fight to anyone who will listen, so trying to balance that commitment with training and mental preparation is difficult. 

Sticking with Rocky III, Aldo is talking about McGregor like Clubber Lang was talking about Rocky Balboa before their first match, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports:

Every fight the biggest fight of my career, the next one is always the biggest one, so I’m looking at this one as the biggest fight in my career because it’s the next one. To me he’s just the same. I’ve fought a lot of the top fighters out there, and to me he’s really just another opponent that I have to go in there and beat.

While McGregor may not be “just another fighter,” there is a blueprint to defeat him. The Ireland native has two losses in his career, both by submission. Granted, his last loss came in 2010 and many things have changed since then. 

But going back to Faber’s comments, McGregor doesn’t do well on the ground or in takedown defense. Aldo is the kind of fighter who will adapt to any kind of scenario, while McGregor wants to keep things standing to utilize his striking ability. 

With very little separating Aldo and McGregor in talent, the difference comes down to the fighter who can do more. No one in mixed martial arts is better than Aldo in terms of being a chameleon. He’s coming into this title unification bout as the underdog but will walk out the undisputed featherweight champion. 

Prediction: Aldo wins by third-round submission

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UFC 193: Start Time, Prelim Live Stream Info and Full Fight-Card Predictions

UFC 193 marks the promotion’s first trip to Australia, so it’s fitting the red carpet is getting rolled out, with Ronda Rousey putting her bantamweight championship on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm on Saturday night. 
Rousey’s …

UFC 193 marks the promotion’s first trip to Australia, so it’s fitting the red carpet is getting rolled out, with Ronda Rousey putting her bantamweight championship on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm on Saturday night. 

Rousey’s fights have become legendary because of how quickly they end. The champion has won her last four bouts in a total of two minutes and 10 seconds. Holm is more methodical, winning her first two UFC fights by decision, so the contrast in styles makes for an interesting main event dynamic.

 

 

UFC 193 Fight Card

 

Fighter to Watch: Holly Holm

Holm gets the spotlight as the fighter to watch simply because there doesn’t seem to be any hype around her, despite challenging for Rousey’s title. The 34-year-old from New Mexico has two UFC fights under her belt, including one in the semi-main event at UFC 184, which Rousey headlined. 

The only “problem” with Rousey’s dominance is it’s left UFC with few challengers to throw at her. Just going over the official UFC fighter rankings, the only fighters ahead of Holm who haven’t fought Rousey are Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena. 

However, Holm is ranked seventh on that list of women’s bantamweight fighters. There was speculation before the bout was announced that Rousey would get a third fight against Miesha Tate, who had already lost to the champion twice. 

Tate has given Rousey the biggest challenge of her career, taking their bout at UFC 168 into the third round. It’s the only time in 12 fights that Rousey has needed more than one round to win a match. 

As for why UFC opted to go in a different direction, president Dana White told Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times that Holm presented a unique challenge for Rousey:

Everyone has jitters in their first fight. Holly came back from that and destroyed a woman who’d looked damn good in her previous fights. When you talk about the possibilities of what Holly can do … she’s a world-class boxer … the Holly Holm fight for Ronda is way more intriguing.

All eyes in the main event are going to be on Rousey, no one can dispute that. She’s the biggest star in mixed martial arts, and she’s one of the few athletes in any sport whom you have to make a point of watching because she has done such unique and special things. 

Holm has a chance to shock the world with no one giving her much of a chance. Odds are heavily skewed toward Rousey, with Odds Shark listing her as a minus-1500 favorite. 

Flying under the radar isn’t a bad thing. Holm has no pressure on her, and a victory over Rousey will make her an instant superstar. 

 

Fight to Watch: Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva

A fight between two heavyweights who have knockout power is one of the most exciting things in mixed martial arts. There’s a reason the boxing community is yearning for depth in the heavyweight division, because it always makes things more interesting. 

Saturday’s main card fight between Mark Hunt and Antonio Silva is not going to have title ramifications. Hunt is 41 years old and has lost his last two fights. Silva is 36 years old and has one win since May 2013. 

Looking at things from a long-term perspective, Hunt vs. Silva doesn’t pop. Taking the fight as pure entertainment, though, it would be hard for any matchup to top this one. 

It also helps that this is a rematch from one of the best heavyweight battles in recent memory: a five-round bloodbath at UFC Fight Night in December 2013 that ended in a majority draw. Silva was later stripped of his fight night bonus and suspended for nine months for failing a post-fight drug test. 

As the numbers show, Hunt and Silva are knockout specialists. Silva has some grappling and submission skills in his arsenal, but he wants to stand and trade with an opponent. 

Expectations for the heavyweight duel should be high after that first bout. Sequels always face an uphill battle living up to the original, but even if Hunt and Silva don’t match that initial high, their styles mesh so well that it should be extremely entertaining no matter the result. 

 

Main Event Prediction: Rousey def. Holm

It’s hardly a surprise that Rousey is my prediction to win. I was tempted to go against the grain and say it wouldn’t happen until the second round, but even that feels like stretching it. 

This is a fight in which some of the numbers can be deceiving, at least on Holm’s side. The challenger has a perfect 100 percent takedown defense rating on UFC.com, which would seem to be a huge advantage because Rousey is at her best working on the ground to get the armbar.

However, Holm’s previous opponent, Marion Reneau, has not been credited with a single takedown attempt in three UFC fights. 

According to Andrew Flowers of FiveThirtyEight.com, there is one opening Rousey presents that can work to Holm’s advantage:

If there’s one argument in favor of Holm, it’s that Rousey’s hyper-aggressive flurry of attacks can leave her vulnerable to strikes. And Holm is probably a better striker than anyone Rousey has faced. Rousey’s striking defense stands at only 52 percent — meaning Rousey’s opponents connect half the time. Holm is a better defender, deflecting 69 percent of her opponent’s strikes. In short, when Rousey is not landing blows, she’s liable to be receiving them. Holm will hope to take advantage of this weakness.

Anyone who has seen a Rousey fight, will know she comes out of the gate like a charging bull. It’s almost as if she is so anxious to assert her will that she has to run to the opposite side and start swinging. 

That strategy has worked perfectly for Rousey thus far. None of her opponents seem to have any idea what to do with themselves, leaving them open to absorbing strikes and being taken to the ground. 

Holm’s biggest problem is that she doesn’t possess true knockout power, despite coming from a boxing background. Her 15 knockouts in 47 fights (38 in boxing and nine in MMA) indicates she is better at methodically wearing down opponents. 

Rousey is not the kind of opponent a slow and methodical strategy will work against. The contrast in styles gives the champion a significant edge and will ensure she retains her title in spectacular fashion once again.

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Rousey vs. Holm: Latest UFC 193 Odds, Predictions and Pre-Fight Twitter Hype

UFC is giving fight fans an early holiday treat with Ronda Rousey’s return to the Octagon, as the undefeated bantamweight champion puts her title on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm at UFC 193 in Australia on Saturday night.
Rousey has…

UFC is giving fight fans an early holiday treat with Ronda Rousey‘s return to the Octagon, as the undefeated bantamweight champion puts her title on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm at UFC 193 in Australia on Saturday night.

Rousey has managed to transcend the sport of mixed martial arts in less than three years with UFC. She’s become the biggest star, appearing in movies and magazine covers, but never does the 28-year-old look more comfortable than in the cage and reminding everyone why she is the best in the world. 

Holm comes into the UFC 193 main event under the radar, with just two UFC victories under her belt, but the former boxing champion is not to be taken lightly. She’s never lost an MMA fight since transitioning to the sport in 2011 and knows a win over Rousey can make her career. 

 

Rousey vs. Holm Odds

 

Rousey vs. Holm Preview

You know that a fighter is operating on an entirely different level from anyone else when the biggest question is if the over/under for match time is 30 seconds. 

That’s not even an exaggeration, as Odds Shark notes the current odds for Rousey to finish Holm within the first minute is plus-200. A 60-second bout would feel like an eternity for the champion, as her last three matches have taken a combined 64 seconds.

That trio of victories is really emblematic of how Rousey has operated throughout her career covering 12 fights, per ESPN Stats & Info:

By comparison, Holm spends a lot of time in the cage during her fights. She’s never won a fight before the second round in her career and has had both of her UFC victories go to the judges’ table. 

Rousey and Holm couldn’t be more different in their approach to fighting, as this table from MMA Infographics shows:

There are always stories about how Rousey has come to be so dominant in a sport where one good punch from an opponent can end everything. No one has the answer, other than to say she is great at what she does. 

Rousey, to her credit, told Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com the difference between herself and her opponent on Saturday:

Even though a sentence like that comes off as hyperbolic, there is something to the obsessive nature with which Rousey operates. Holm certainly fixates on her craft. Otherwise, she wouldn’t be very good and in the main event of a show that could break UFC’s all-time attendance record. 

But Rousey has a way of channeling all of her natural ability and work ethic into something so unique that it’s become must-see television. 

To Holm‘s credit, she’s not lacking confidence despite the world betting against her, per Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports. 

“I don’t mind you saying I’m a huge underdog, because I am a huge underdog,” Holm said. “But the odds have nothing to do with how I’ll perform. I wouldn’t have taken the fight if I didn’t think I was ready or didn’t believe I could win.”

Expanding on that point, via UFC on Twitter, Holm provided a brief explanation for how upsets in sports happen:

If there is an opponent who can defeat Rousey, a boxer would seem to be a good bet. The champ is so good on the ground because of her judo background that keeping her standing negates her best asset. 

Boxers usually pack a wallop with their punches, so that gives you a knockout weapon. The problem for Holm is she’s never really had knockout power, dating back to her days as a boxer. The 34-year-old has 47 combined boxing and MMA fights. Fifteen have ended via knockout or TKO. 

Someone will find a formula to defeat Rousey eventually, but Holm doesn’t have it. The contrast in style favors Rousey because she’s evolved, adding punching power with three knockouts in her last four fights, and still has the ground game in her back pocket if necessary. 

Holm is making a huge jump in competition after defeating Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau in her first two UFC fights. She is not going to wilt under the pressure, but the challenger has never fought an opponent like Rousey. 

Prediction: Rousey wins via first-round TKO

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Ronda Rousey Says Violent Incident with Ex-Boyfriend Was ‘Self-Defense’

Ronda Rousey is clarifying controversial comments from her autobiography, in which she revealed she hit an ex-boyfriend during an encounter—what some claim constitutes domestic violence. 
Speaking at the UFC 193 media day Friday, per ESPN.co…

Ronda Rousey is clarifying controversial comments from her autobiography, in which she revealed she hit an ex-boyfriend during an encounter—what some claim constitutes domestic violence. 

Speaking at the UFC 193 media day Friday, per ESPN.com’s Ramona Shelburne, Rousey claimed her ex-boyfriend was preventing her from leaving an apartment when the situation escalated:

I was in that situation before when I was in a movie theater and my exit was blocked, people wouldn’t let me out. You legally cannot do that. It’s considered a self-defense scenario. 

So if someone is blocking you into an apartment and won’t let you leave, you’re entitled to defend yourself and find a way out. If you’re trying to get into your car and leave and they’re grabbing your steering wheel and saying you can’t leave, technically you’re being kidnapped, and you can defend yourself in any way that is necessary.

The incident in question was described in Rousey’s autobiography, which was released earlier this year. Per Nancy Armour of USA Today, the book claims an ex-boyfriend had nude photos of her that she was concerned would be leaked publicly. 

“I slapped him across the face so hard my hand hurt,” Rousey wrote.

According to Armour, her ex-boyfriend allegedly did not “respond physically” but prevented her from leaving the apartment by blocking the door.

Rousey wrote:

I punched him in the face with a straight right, then a left hook. He staggered back and fell against the door. … I slapped him with my right hand. He still wouldn’t move. Then I grabbed him by the neck of his hoodie, kneed him in the face and tossed him aside on the kitchen floor.

Armour, meanwhile, questioned why she seemed to be getting a pass on domestic violence, writing:

Is it because she’s attractive and has become a marketing gold mine? Ask any domestic violence expert, and they’ll tell you looks and economic status are irrelevant in abuse cases. Abusers come in every shape, size, color and socioeconomic status.

Or is it because she’s a woman?

Shelburne wrote in her piece that Rousey communicated with her lawyers about the situation “and that it could have been considered kidnapping.”

Kim Pentico of the National Network to End Domestic Violence told Eric Adelson of Yahoo Sports that she didn’t have enough information to describe the situation as a domestic violence incident. 

“I’m not comfortable with her behavior,” said Pentico. “What I am absolutely not willing to say is she’s committed domestic violence without speaking with him and learning more about that relationship.”

Rousey is set to take on Holly Holm in the main event of Saturday night’s pay-per-view. 

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UFC 193: Latest Rousey vs. Holm Odds, Predictions and Pre-Weigh-in Hype

UFC is making its first trek to Melbourne, Australia, and is pulling out all the stops, with Ronda Rousey stepping back into the Octagon for the first time in four months, putting her bantamweight title on the line against undefeated challenger Holly H…

UFC is making its first trek to Melbourne, Australia, and is pulling out all the stops, with Ronda Rousey stepping back into the Octagon for the first time in four months, putting her bantamweight title on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm. 

There was a time when this bout would have been considered a contrast in styles, with Rousey being the excellent ground and submission fighter taking on the boxer-turned-mixed-martial-artist in Holm. 

As every great athlete does, though, Rousey has evolved, with three of her last four wins coming via knockout or TKO. Holm is moving into uncharted waters, as her highest-profile win to date was against 38-year-old Marion Reneau, who is also ranked 11th in UFC’s official women’s bantamweight fighter rankings. 

Rousey is the overwhelming favorite to win this bout, as expected, and Holm still has to prove that she warrants this marquee matchup with such a brief UFC resume that includes just two fights entering Saturday night. 

 

Odds

 

What They Are Saying

This is a change of pace, both for UFC and Rousey. Saturday’s event is taking place in a stadium that was originally scheduled to seat 15,000 but has bumped that total up to 70,000 due to insane demand for tickets. 

Because UFC is taking its show on the road for a big stadium show, media commitments are very different for this show. Rousey, speaking to Duane Finley of Sports Illustrated, has admitted that this is unique for her experiences. 

“It’s a lot of pressure,” Rousey said. “The stadium has the capacity for 70,000, but I still have to fill up 70,000. I’m doing all I can to try to meet that goal, but the ultimate goal is to beat Holly. If everything else falls into place that’s awesome, but if not I tried my best.”

The promotion for an event is something that doesn’t get talked about often enough, especially when the entire show is being built around a single fighter. Rousey is the draw on this card, being the biggest star in the sport, and has to prepare for her match while also selling the show in public appearances. 

Continuing her talk with Finley, Rousey admitted her schedule over the last year has been chaotic: 

I go on these runs and it’s just hard. This will be my third title fight in nine months and it’s exhausting. I kind of think of it more as how much I’ve done since the last time I got to rest. This fight with Holly is the last hurdle before the next time I get to rest and there is no way on earth this girl is taking my rest and happiness away from me.

There is no reason to doubt that Rousey will be physically and mentally prepared for the bout, as she continues to end matches within 66 seconds of the opening bell, but the law of averages would say at some point she will hit a wall. 

Holm hopes Saturday will be Rousey’s first slip-up, though the challenger told Rick Maese of the Washington Post she’s tired of receiving one question. 

“I am sick of hearing, ‘Do you think you can win?’ ” Holm said. “Like, who takes a fight going, ‘I don’t think I can win. I’m just here.’ I don’t understand that.”

It’s an understandable feeling, as the world assumes Rousey will win and the only question being asked by fans is how long it will take to happen. Some fans would even consider Holm going two minutes with Rousey to be a victory in its own right.

Despite that particular annoyance, Holm was quick to give Rousey respect for what she has accomplished in the Octagon.

“I feel to me, it doesn’t really matter. . . . Trust me, I fear her—she’s the toughest, most dominating competitor out there. But she’s still just another female, just another person. There’s huge upsets in history for a reason. Somebody had to believe in themselves to get there,” Holm told Maese.

Flying under the radar isn’t a bad thing, since Rousey is carrying the burden of expectations and being the star of the show. Holm can sit back, focus all her energy on preparing for the champion and look to shock the world. 

One of the many people in Rousey’s corner for this fight is legendary boxing trainer Freddie Roach, who told MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani that the ground will be the difference:

[Rousey’s] not the best in the world [at boxing], but she’s good, she’s very competitive, she tries really hard. It’s probably not the best thing she does, she probably better at ground game, but again, she’s more experienced there. Her boxing is good, the girl she’s fighting is a good boxer also. When they stand up it will be a good fight but when it goes to the ground she’s going to destroy her.

There has to be a feeling that if Rousey loses, it will come in a fight that stays standing up. She’s been so great on the ground, dating back to her days before MMA when the 28-year-old won a bronze medal in Judo at the 2008 Summer Olympics.

Holm has the boxing skill, but she has never gone against a ground fighter anywhere near the caliber of Rousey, so it would be stunning if she were able to pull the upset off. 

Another problem facing Holm in this bout, as noted by Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated, is there are limitations to her boxing ability:

Normally, in a boxer vs. grappler bout, one would say the standup fighter has at least a puncher’s chance. But Holm, for all of her boxing background, is not a power puncher. She did win all but one of her pre-UFC bouts by knockout, but ever since she stepped up to the big leagues, both of her fights have gone to decision. And even in 38 boxing matches, she had but nine KOs.

Wagenheim also pointed out that Holm only connects on 28 percent of her significant strikes, compared to 63 percent for Rousey. 

Being a methodical striker is not inherently wrong, as Holm rode that style to win multiple boxing titles in her career, but Rousey’s aggressive, relentless attacking style does not leave many chances to wait for opportunities to pick her apart. 

 

Predictions

Even in sports, which are by their very nature unpredictable despite everyone always offering a prediction, there are certain athletes or teams impossible to pick against until you see them lose. 

For years, Anderson Silva was the UFC fighter carrying that torch. Rousey has ascended to the throne in a short time, showing no signs of relinquishing the crown anytime soon. Holm will be a more formidable foe than Bethe Correia or Cat Zingano, but the end result will be the same. 

Rousey wins via first-round submission

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Jon Jones Reinstated by UFC: Latest Details, Comments and Reaction

Nearly six months after he was stripped of the light heavyweight belt and indefinitely suspended, Jon Jones has been reinstated by the UFC. 
In an official release on UFC.com, UFC chairman and CEO Lorenzo Fertitta said the company has been pleased…

Nearly six months after he was stripped of the light heavyweight belt and indefinitely suspended, Jon Jones has been reinstated by the UFC. 

In an official release on UFC.com, UFC chairman and CEO Lorenzo Fertitta said the company has been pleased with his progress following his various legal problems. 

We’ve made it clear to Jon that this new opportunity to compete in UFC is a privilege and not a right, and that there are significant expectations we have regarding his conduct moving forward. We’re happy to read and see reports that he has embraced the terms of his plea agreement and is using this experience to grow and develop as a person.

In the same release, Jones said he is “thankful to be able to do what [he loves] once again” and looks forward to proving himself as a fighter and person as a member of the UFC. 

Jones spoke about his reinstatement on Facebook:

In April, Jones turned himself into Albuquerque police following a hit-and-run. He pleaded guilty to one felony charge and received 18 months probation for the incident in September.

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