Dig into the meat of the main card of UFC San Antonio, featuring expert choke artist Aleksei Oleinik looking to turn away athletic heavy hitter Walt Harris.
When you take a look at the co-main event of UFC San Antonio and the next contest underneath it, you can’t help but feel the UFC botched the booking of this card. Not only does Aleksei Oleinik and Walt Harris not belong in the co-main event, but is the UFC really going to keep pushing Greg Hardy like this? I get he has name recognition – mostly for all the wrong reasons — and is physically talented, but the initial interest seems to have waned. I guess I could call it progress seeing as how he isn’t in the co-main event…
However, not to completely trash what the UFC did with UFC San Antonio, there are a couple of main card fights that make up for some of the lackluster match placement. It’s rare the UFC has a lightweight contest on the main card that leaves fans wanting and this is no exception. Francisco Trinaldo and Alexander Hernandez is awesome enough as it is, but the UFC ups the ante even more with James Vick and Daniel Hooker doing the damn thing. Aside from the main event, those two fights alone should make the main card worth watching.
The main card begins on ESPN at 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Aleksei Oleinik (57-12-1) vs. Walt Harris (12-7, 1 NC), Heavyweight
Even though it feels like we’ve hit a ceiling with Oleinik given his loss to Alistair Overeem, it doesn’t mean Oleinik is finished, despite his 42 years of age. Even with the loss to Overeem, Oleinik gave the Dutch kickboxer a run for his money, demonstrating powerful punches in the close quarters, even if he’s defensively deficient. What I’m getting at is the Russian still seems to find ways to improve despite his limited mobility and athleticism. Part of that can be attributed to opponents not wanting to have anything to do with his ground game as there may not be a more effective choke artist in the sport, much less the UFC. There are two recorded Ezekiel chokes in UFC history. Want to take a guess as to owns both of them? Yep, Oleinik.
Given Oleinik’s accolades on the ground, it makes me wonder why the UFC has been so anxious to book Harris against him. Sure, Oleinik isn’t a great wrestler in the traditional sense and Harris is one of the most athletic heavyweights on the roster. But did y’all see Harris against Fabricio Werdum? It was like Werdum was grappling with a life-size dummy. He did whatever the hell he wanted. I’ll grant Harris fanboys that contest was two years ago and Harris has been able to avoid going to the ground since that time. Plus, Harris continues to grow increasingly dangerous on the feet. Oleinik is durable, but he isn’t indestructible. Harris certainly has a chance. He just needs to force Oleinik to fight Harris’ fight.
While Werdum is possibly the best heavyweight BJJ practitioner in the history of MMA, Oleinik may be even more difficult to prepare for given his unorthodoxy. Harris will do everything in his power to keep the fight standing, but Oleinik has a way of getting the fight to the ground, even if it means clinching up and pulling guard. Harris has yet to show me the savvy to avoid Oleinik’s ground game. Oleinik via submission of RD1
Greg Hardy (4-1) vs. Juan Adams (5-1), Heavyweight
Adams has been calling for a fight with Hardy since he got into the UFC. The brass obliged and now it could be said we’ve got a grudge match.
For all the hate towards Hardy, there is no denying his physical gifts. He scored several impressive KO’s prior to joining the UFC roster – including a couple on the Contender Series – violently putting away his opposition in a manner that screams potential contender. However, he has also been training for less than three years. Physical gifts can take a fighter far in this sport, but it will only take one so far without learning how to properly use them. Hardy still needs to develop discipline as his UFC debut against Allen Crowder proved. Hardy tried to put him away as fast as possible, gassed hard when he couldn’t, and panicked as he had never been in that position before. There is no proof he has addressed that problem as Dmitrii Smolyakov – his most recent opponent since the loss to Crowder – left open questions that he was brought back to throw the fight. I’m not saying Smolyakov did throw it. I’m saying it’s plausible he threw it. Smolyakov’s performance was that bad and we learned nothing new about Hardy as a result.
Adams hasn’t been training for much longer than Hardy, though he appears to have a better frame of mind for fighting. Adams has fought into the third round in each of his UFC appearances and though he has gotten tired in both contests, he has also fought through his exhaustion, continuing to throw effective strikes. There is a legit concern that Adams’ lack of speed and defense could result in Hardy being able to blitz him meaning, Adams will have to rely on his chin. Fortunately for him, his chin has been ironclad thus far.
Some may point to Adams being significantly bigger than Hardy, but Hardy has faced opposition bigger than him before without issue. As much as many don’t want to hear this, Hardy has a legit chance to win this. The question will be whether he can put away Adams early as there is no reason to trust Hardy can be effective beyond the first round. Adams hasn’t proven to have a high fight IQ himself, but he has the right mentality. He drags Hardy beyond the first round and finishes him. Adams via TKO of RD2
James Vick (13-3) vs. Daniel Hooker (17-8), Lightweight
Some believe Hooker’s last fight, a one-sided losing effort against Edson Barboza, was his most impressive performance to date. In that contest, Hooker endured a hellacious beating, but continued to battle despite the punishment being inflicted upon him. The amount of toughness and heart Hooker showed in that contest won him more fans than the four consecutive finishes he accumulated prior to that contest, coinciding with his move up to lightweight. Though Hooker isn’t an impressive athlete, his lack of speed wasn’t as apparent at 155 and his energy level increased as well, more than making up for whatever size advantage he lost. His durability has allowed him to pressure effectively, doing his best work in the clinch, though his outside striking shouldn’t be discounted either. Part of the problem against Barboza was Hooker didn’t properly pressure when he still had mobility. Everyone knows Barboza struggles under pressure. Will he make the same mistake with Vick?
I’d imagine Hooker won’t as Vick is amongst the tallest lightweights on the roster at 6’3”. Throughout his UFC tenure, Vick has improved his distance striking immensely, making the idea of Hooker staying on the outside a foolish notion, even if Hooker isn’t that much smaller. Vick does still tend to hold his head high – as most tall fighters do – and has paid the price for that against the likes of Justin Gaethje and Beneil Dariush. Nonetheless, his height and reach does make it difficult to land effective offense on his without eating something in return. Vick’s guillotine has regularly been recognized as one of his most effective weapons – particularly at stopping takedowns – but Hooker has not only been tough to submit, he doesn’t often look to take the fight to the ground, potentially negating the guillotine.
It’s very difficult to predict how this fight goes. Hooker has yet to win a fight by decision in the UFC, so I’m all the way in on Vick if the fight goes the distance. However, it has been proven Vick’s chin can be cracked, even if it isn’t thought to be brittle. Vick doesn’t hit as hard as Barboza, though it could also be argued that Hooker is unlikely to be able to endure punishment the way he used to after that contest with the Brazilian. After all, the human body can only sustain so much punishment. Regardless, I favor Hooker to weather a certain degree of damage from Vick before finding a brutal combination or knee to end the contest. Hooker via TKO of RD2
Alexander Hernandez (10-2) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (23-6), Lightweight
As impressive as Oleinik’s run into his 40’s has been, he fights in a division that is kinder to older fighters. Even though he turns 41 next month, Trinaldo just keeps on rolling despite being in a division far crueler to its senior citizens. A skilled counter puncher with size and length, Trinaldo’s career blossomed when he was able to begin training full-time. It’s just unfortunate that didn’t come until he was past his physical peak. Nonetheless, Trianldo’s athleticism has held up well and he’s become trickier to deal with the deeper he goes into his career. He can still be bullied on the ground against ground technicians, but more often than not, he’s held his own.
It’s hard to know if Hernandez fits the bill as someone who will give Trinaldo the type of problems that have traditionally plagued him. Hernandez’s base is his wrestling and has had some success with taking down the likes of Olivier Aubin-Mercier. However, his uber-aggressiveness in every aspect proved to be his undoing against Donald Cerrone. Regardless, Hernandez’s own athleticism rivals, if not surpasses, that of Trinaldo. With that in mind, Trinaldo likely won’t be able to use his physicality to overwhelm or escape from Hernandez’s grasp should the contest go to the mat.
Initially, I was going to pick Hernandez. He’s young, athletic, tough, and a solid wrestler. Plus, Trinaldo’s physical decline could begin at any moment. However, the more I watched Hernandez crash into counter after counter from Cerrone, the more I believed Trinaldo could best him up the same way Cowboy did. Throw in the fact that Trinaldo has never been finished by strikes — leaving the likelihood of Hernandez blitzing him the way he did Dariush to be slim – I feel like the Brazilian has at least one more good performance left in him. Trinaldo via decision
As for the rest….
The only other contest is heavyweight rematch between dinosaurs Andrei Arlovski and Ben Rothwell. Arlovski was victorious in their first contest, but that was eleven years ago. At this point, Arlovski has two wins in his last eleven contests and Rothwell hasn’t won a fight since January 2016. Arlovski still moves very well and may be the most technically sound he has ever been. Hell, his notoriously fragile chin has even been holding up too. What’s missing is confidence and aggression. Rothwell has been notoriously durable throughout his career and should be confident pushing forward on Arlovski. Rothwell has always been short on mobility, but never on power. He wins if he connects cleanly, but Arlovski will probably take it if it goes to decision. I’m expecting a crap show with Rothwell coming out on top. Rothwell via KO of RD1
