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Kickboxing ace, Leon Edwards, seeks the third title defense of his UFC title opposite veteran challenger, Belal Muhammad, this Saturday (July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

Edwards is a great technician (more on that below), but what really separates him from most is his ability to remain calm amidst the chaos of a cage fight. Edwards is a man who always knows what the scorecards read and how much time is left on the clock. How often do we see fighters coasting on a lead that isn’t actually there? “Rocky,” meanwhile, is perfectly content to take a round off against Gunnar Nelson or Colby Covington because he’s fully aware that he’s already won the fight. Who cares if he ends the fight on bottom when the win is already wrapped up?

The sole notable exception came when a fatigued Edwards required a rousing speech from his coach before head-kicking Kamaru Usman into oblivion (watch it). Again, how often have we seen corners scream and beg for their fighters to act to no effect? Edwards is the exception, the athlete cognizant enough to know he’s down and still sharp enough to give himself one last chance.

Let’s take a closer look at his skill set:

Striking

Edwards is very much a fighter who thrives at long and close range. He’s still effective in the pocket, but Edwards tends to limit himself to short exchanges when possible.

The first thing to note about Edwards’ technical kickboxing is that he jabs more often than most Southpaws. When faced with an opposite stance opponent, Edwards definitely still hand-fights and parries with his lead hand — Southpaws almost have to — but he’s far more willing to slap down his foe’s lead hand and step into a jab. He’ll commonly follow up with the left afterward, and it lands with better accuracy since he’s already found his way into range with both the hand-fighting and previous jab.

Edwards consistently makes great use of the Southpaw double threat: forcing his opponents to quickly determine whether a left cross or left kick is coming their way. This strategy is a staple of Edwards’ offense. Again, it tends to come after the jab, as Edwards snaps his foe’s head back and uses that moment to gain a bit of an outside angle before firing a hard cross or kick. Edwards’ left body kick is notably snappy and well-placed, far better than the average UFC left kick.

This is, of course, how he dethroned Usman: a perfect left high kick hiding behind the 1-2 (GIF). Beyond the brilliant execution, Edwards was lining up that kick the whole fight. He repeatedly stabbed Usman’s mid-section with front kicks, as well as taking the left round kick to the lead leg and liver. For five rounds, he built up to the fight-finishing head kick.

Edwards’ last match vs. Colby Covington was a bit of a nothing fight, as “Chaos” didn’t really do much other than stand around and get kicked. That said, Edwards did show off one neat wrinkle to his kicking offense: the inside crescent kick. Whenever the two were opposite stance, Edwards would dig into Covington’s mid-section with a funky lead leg front kick that angles inside then snaps into the belly. That’s a strike that’s gaining popularity in MMA, as it’s a nice way to touch the body without much risk of getting taken down.

On the whole, much of Edwards’ offense comes on the counter. He’s willing to lead and will often do so in a close fight to push the pace, but he does a lot of damage answering his opponent’s strikes (GIF).

For example, Edwards did a great job of countering Peter Sobotta, a fellow Southpaw. Since the two men were in the same stance, the jab’s importance grew. That favored Edwards since he already throws a lot of jabs usually, but he built upon that advantage by looking to counter Sobotta’s jab frequently. Early on, a looping cross counter over the jab found its home on Sobotta’s jaw a few times. Once the German athlete adjusted, Edwards switched his counter punch of choice to the uppercut. Edwards made similar adjustments against another leftie in Nate Diaz, chopping up his calf, sticking him with jabs, then walking him into heavy counter swings.

In addition, Edwards is quite good at kicking from his back foot, a risky technique that a lot of fighters do poorly. As his opponent advances, Edwards will feint with his lead hand, set his feet and stop moving away, and blast a left kick into the mid-section. It’s simple enough on paper, but the timing has to be precise to avoid a counter or stuffed kick.

The last note on Edwards’ kickboxing habits is that he likes to following the left high kick with a lunging left hand. It’s both sudden and effective, and it again takes advantage of the Southpaw double threat by forcibly moving his opponent’s hands out of position to block the kick.

In recent years, Edwards has developed a reputation as an excellent clinch striker. Much of the time, winning the clinch battle is as simple as throwing something, anything when breaking away from the clinch, when fighters tend to drop their hands. However, Edwards also does a phenomenal job initiating the left elbow from the clinch.

It is difficult to pinpoint what exactly makes Edwards’ elbow so much more effective than his peers. After all, controlling a collar tie with one hand and elbowing with the other is hardly a new tactic in mixed martial arts (MMA). Yet, Edwards consistently lands left elbow on the break with devastating force.

Perhaps the most notable difference is that Edwards really tends to gain an angle before throwing the elbow, stepping across his opponent’s body and trying to convince him to turn into the strike. Against dos Anjos, Edwards did a really nice job of interrupting his foe’s combinations with clinches that turned into elbows. “RDA” is a monster if his foe lets him get going, but Edwards routinely stymied him with this tactic. Edwards’ head position is another key, as he commonly is able to dictate his opponent’s posture by jacking their jaw up with his own forehead.

Finally, let’s talk about how Edwards used the same tools to far greater effect in the third Usman fight compared to the second bout. The big issue in the rematch was that Edwards’ footwork failed him. Too often, he backed straight up into the fence, allowing Usman to tee off and find success with his wrestling.

Edwards forced Usman to track him down much more in their most recent bout. He was more fluid with his lateral movement and direction changes, forcing Usman — never known for his fast feet — to constantly reset his stance and follow. Whenever Edwards gained a bit of an angle or caught Usman in a square stance, “Rocky” would rip a punishing low kicks. He did major damage to the inner thigh, making their speed differential even more pronounced.

In addition, Edwards stood his ground more often. He’s not an expert pocket boxer, but then, neither is Usman! It’s far better to stand and trade with one’s back removed from the fence. Edwards’ willingness to plant his feet and fire back in combination prevented Usman from walking him down, and the occasional threat of knees up the middle helped alleviate the pressure too.

Through his footwork and aggression, Edwards bought himself more time to work at distance, and he shined there.

Wrestling

After the first Usman fight, Edwards spent some time at American Kickboxing Academy and really developed his offensive and defensive wrestling. At this point, he should be considered an elite wrestler at 170 pounds.

Even the best converted non-wrestlers tend to have average shots, but that isn’t the case for Edwards. Not only does he duck down into the double leg with good speed, but he takes an angle immediately upon hitting his foe’s hips. From there, Edwards stands a better chance at driving through the shot or hitting the fence and finishing from there. In addition, Edwards shows good transitional wrestling by switching from a double-leg to body lock.

Edwards goes for trips quite a bit from the clinch, and they generally serve him quite well. He has a great frame from that style of takedown. In addition, he frequently shucked towards the back of Nate Diaz, which allowed him to drag the grappler down or execute another trip from behind.

Edwards becoming the first man to official take down Usman has to be mentioned, and he did so starting the exchange with his back to the fence. However, when he pummeled into the over-under, Edwards was essentially able to cancel out Usman’s underhook by securing a body lock and clamping down tight. As a result of that pressure from Edwards, Usman’s underhook grew more shallow and less effective. Edwards pushed him back from the new position and caught him off-guard with an outside trip, nearly buckling the knee in the process (GIF).

Defensively, Edwards does a lot of things right. First and foremost, his immediate defense to just about any shot is to get his back to the fence and widen his stance. With his legs too far apart to be double-legged, Edwards mostly just has to focus on fighting hands. If his opponent switches to a single leg, Edwards will look to stuff the head to the outside or down to the mat, opening up opportunities to reverse.

One thing Edwards does very well is maintain head position. When opponents drive forward into the clinch, Edwards will get his hips back, helping prevent the shot and allowing him to lower his own head. The head is often looked at as the first line of defense in wrestling, and Edwards often proves that notion true, pressing his forehead into his opponents jaw and negating forward pressure. After getting good head position, Edwards is usually able to angle off soon after or return to those hard elbows.

In the third Usman fight, Edwards did tremendous work stopping shots by fighting hands two-on-one as Usman tried to take him down. As Usman worked for takedowns below the waist, Edwards would look to break his grip and isolate his inside arm — the arm that would reach across Edwards’ body to collect the double leg if the Englishman allowed him.

It is really, really difficult to finish a takedown with just one arm. Without his hands clasped, Usman couldn’t run the pipe effectively, elevate a caught leg, or look to double off. Many times, that two-on-one control forced Usman to move up into the upper body clinch, where Edwards’ sound head position and gnarly elbows were a strong counter measure.

Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Edwards’ control game from top position revolves around taking the back, so it should not be a surprise that two of his three career submission victories are rear-naked choke wins. He’s attempted the hold multiple times inside the Octagon and did manage to secure it against Albert Tumenov.

In that bout, Edwards won the first two rounds via top control. In the third, both men were a bit fatigued, leading to a more desperate scramble from both. Edwards managed to drag Tumenov to the mat with a seat belt grip from the back, but he was perilously close to falling off the back. Tumenov worked to loosen the hooks as Edwards tried to move back and pull him deeper into the back mount, but “Rocky” flipped the script by going submission over position and simply attacking the neck.

His arm found its way under the chin, forcing Tumenov to focus on the choke rather than the escape. By that point, though, it was too late, and Edwards was able to secure his first submission victory inside the Octagon.

In general, Edwards is very willing to hang on the two-on-one wrist control and beat his opponents up. If they try to force a stand up, he’ll move to take the back, and it can be very difficult to break this chain of transitions.

Conclusion

Edwards is in his prime at 32 years of age and already riding a massive win streak. If he can settle this business with Muhammad, he’s lined up to face the next generation of Welterweight talent, opponents like Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Garry, or he might just find himself in a “super fight” versus Islam Makhachev.

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Andrew Richardson, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, is a professional fighter who trains at Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, California. In addition to learning alongside world-class talent, Andrew has scouted opponents and developed winning strategies for several of the sport’s most elite fighters.

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Belal 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight talents Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes will collide this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024) at UFC 304 inside Co-Op Live in Manchester, England.

At 31 years of age, Aspinall very much appears to be the future of the Heavyweight division. Already the interim champion, Aspinall combines a well-rounded skillset with incredible physical attributes like few others. Though he seems primed to rule the big man roost for years to come, few are built to play spoiler quite like Blaydes. Indeed, “Razor” is a grinding wrestler with five-rounds of cardio. He’s an atypical style for the division, the exact kind of fighter who can make a flashy finisher look mediocre if able to play his game.

Two years ago, Blaydes defeated Aspinall in seconds because of a freak knee injury (watch it). Ahead of their rematch, let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Aspinall Vs. Blaydes Betting Odds

• Tom Aspinall victory: -355
• Tom Aspinall via TKO/KO/DQ: -165
• Tom Aspinall via submission: +400
• Tom Aspinall via decision: +1000
• Curtis Blaydes victory: +280
• Curtis Blaydes via TKO/KO/DQ: +450
• Curtis Blaydes via submission: +2500
• Curtis Blaydes via decision: +900
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

How Aspinall Wins

Aspinall is far too quick for a man that weighs in around 260 pounds. It’s simply unfair. He blitzes forward with monstrous knockout punches and lightning double legs alike, and he’s proven himself an instant finisher on the canvas too.

We have yet to see him hit the seven minute mark in his UFC career.

Opposite Blaydes, sprawl-and-brawl is the obvious game plan. Aspinall is the sharper boxer with more proven power, and it only takes one clean connection for him to the end the fight. Perhaps the most important part of avoiding the takedown is footwork. Blaydes doesn’t have a particularly fast shot. He generally needs to time his opponent perfectly or get them along the fence first, at which point the pace slows down and he’s able to get to work.

Aspinall showed great lateral movement against Sergei Pavlovich, using his side-to-side motion to walk Pavlovich into a massive punch. Against another fairly foot-slow Heavyweight in Blaydes, he should be doing the same and making Blaydes really work for every inch of distance covered.

How Blaydes Wins

A collegiate wrestler with good power in his hands, Blaydes has been working for this title shot for many years. He’s always come up just short in the past, consistently at the hands of only the biggest hitters in Heavyweight history (Francis Ngannou, Derrick Lewis, Pavlovich).

Blaydes’ path to victory is wrestling, but more to the point, it’s in extending the fight. Obviously, Blaydes wants to gain top position and grind down Aspinall, but that’s going to be very difficult to do while Aspinall is at his fastest and most powerful. Here’s a fun fact about Aspinall: only three of his fights every made it into the second round, and he lost two of them.

It’s been many years since those defeats, but we’ve all seen Heavyweights who gas and fall apart as soon as the fight goes long. Most likely, Aspinall falls in that category to some degree. Therefore, Blaydes would be wise to employ some patience, not force early exchanges, and try to stay defensively sound early on.

If he can survive until the start of round three, his chance of victory skyrockets.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Aspinall Vs. Blaydes Prediction

It’s really hard to go against history here.

I like Blaydes a lot and think he could be champion with the right match ups. I’m also a firm believer that every Heavyweight who appears to be really good is secretly quite bad at something. The recipe for an ugly wrestling match that leaves the Manchester crowd shaking in rage is certainly there, and it would be far from the first time a talented English striker gets laid on.

Yet, there’s the simple fact that Blaydes is hittable holding me back from picking the upset. Hittable against Aspinall? That’s a really, really bad trait. It only takes one connection from Aspinall to send his opponent off on wobbly legs, and he’s a ridiculous finisher once he smells blood.

Blaydes has to be perfect for at least the first round — a tall ask.

Prediction: Aspinal via KO/TKO/DQ (-165)

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Belal 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

UFC 304 is live this weekend (Sat., July 27, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head into the weekend and get ready for Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2!

UFC 304 (Sat., July 27, 2024) from Co-op Live in Manchester, England, is almost upon us.

UFC 304’s pay-per-view (PPV) main card features two title fights. The main event sees Welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, run it back against Belal Muhammad, while interim Heavyweight roost-ruler, Tom Aspinall, meets Curtis Blaydes (also for a second time). In addition, Paddy Pimblett will fight the newly-named King Green, Arnold Allen will tangle with Giga Chikadze and Christian Leroy Duncan will duke it out with Gregory Rodrigues to round out UFC 304’s PPV main card.

The late “Prelims” will feature Nathaniel Wood vs. Daniel Pineda and Molly McCann vs. Bruna Brasil. UFC 304’s early “Prelims” include Mohammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape (who tried to get the party started even earlier this week).

I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 304 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 304 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Leon Edwards (-259 +3.5 percent) vs. Belal Muhammad (+204 -11.8 percent)

Muhammad has seen his odds shorten over the week, taking him from +240 to +204. The money on Muhammad has also seen Edwards’ odds lengthen slightly. That’s good news if you’re like me and expect Edwards to continue where he left off from their first fight. Muhammad is coming into this fight on a hot streak and seems to have improved under the watch of Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, Edwards has also improved and was able to hurt Muhammad with a lightning fast kick in their first fight. I think lightning will strike twice and end this thing somewhere around the third round.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Tom Aspinall (-389 -19.9 percent) vs. Curtis Blaydes (+294 +33 percent)

The betting public are clearly favoring Aspinall to get the job done in Manchester. He opened at -198 but has seen his odds shorten to -389. Blaydes underdog status has ballooned from +164 to +294. There’s very little value left on Aspinall now, unless you’re putting him in your parlays. I’m jealous of those who got him at -198, since I think he’s one of the best locks on the card — thanks to his quick combos and athleticism. If you like Blaydes to get an upset you should wait until closer to the fight, since that line is still trending upwards.

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Bobby Green (-118 +17.7 percent) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-104 -32.5 percent)

These lines have been very interesting. We’ve seen Pimblett go from a +160 underdog to -104 odds in what is now a pick ‘em. Green had opened at -192 before moving to -118. With a fighter like Pimblett, you have to ask how much does popularity count for this money movement. There may be a lot of folks in the United Kingdom hoping to see their man get a win on home soil. I actually like Pimblett in this fight, but not because I grew up in the United Kingdom. I think he will play keep-away with Green and be able to drag him into long (and probably boring) grappling exchanges.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Christian Leroy Duncan (-144 -6.5 percent) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+118 +10.4 percent)

Christian Leroy Duncan has seen some interesting activity on his line. He started at -125 and then dropped to -135 on July 20, then went back up to -125 one day later. He’s since dropped down to -144, though more gradually. Gregory Rodrigues’ line has gone up rather steadily. I think Rodrigues is a pretty attractive dog in this fight, since this will likely be a kickboxing match and Rodrigues has the power advantage. He also has the advantage on the ground, but I don’t know if he’ll work to get there. I can certainly see why Duncan is the favorite, though. He’s more technical and risk adverse and might be able to stay out of the kind of exchanges Rodrigues needs to find a finish.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Arnold Allen (-242 -3.3 percent) vs. Giga Chikadze (+193 +4.4 percent)

The pubic seem pretty happy with these lines, with neither fighter getting a lopsided amount of money coming in. I think this is a close fight to call and that there is some value on Chikadze as an underdog. However, my pick is still Allen. He’s a comparable striker to Chikadze, albeit with a different style. But he’s levels above Chikadze in other areas of the game and he should be able to get the fight there when he needs to.

UFC 304 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

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Nathaniel Wood (-451 -5.3 percent) vs. Daniel Pineda (+333 +21.5 percent)

Daniel Pineda started at +240 and his odds have lengthened considerably to make him one of the biggest underdogs on the card (though +333 is not exactly massive). Both he and Nathaniel Wood do the same things, but Wood does them better. I can see why money has been moving in against Pineda and I personally wouldn’t pick him to win this one.

Molly McCann (-348 -8.7 percent) vs. Bruna Brasil (+265 +24.7 percent)

Bruna Brasil is being faded by the public in her bout with the popular Molly McCann. Brasil’s line movement looks similar to what she had against Loma Lookboonmee last time out (she lost that fight by decision). McCann likes to brawl and Brasil will give her every chance to do so. Brasil has been KO’d in the past, so I don’t like her chances here. McCann should be able to pressure her and she may even score a nice highlight knockout.

Caolan Loughran (-214 – 4.8 percent) vs. Jake Hadley (+172 +8.1 percent)

Not a lot of movement to speak of here. Jake Hadley looked terrible against Charles Johnson two months ago (0 of 11 on takedown attempts). That loss is fresh in the betting public’s minds, but there still isn’t a ton of money flocking in on Caolan Loughran. Loughran isn’t that well known and he’s only got one win at the UFC level (if Angel Pacheco counts as UFC level, that is). I think Hadley, who has three wins inside the Octagon, deserves more respect than that and I like him in this match-up.

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UFC 304 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Modestas Bukauskas (-160 -2.6 percent) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+130 +8.7 percent)

Not a lot of change in these lines. That’s unfortunate for me, since I like Marcin Prachnio here and was hoping to see those odds lengthen. I have questions about Modestas Bukauskas’ chin and I wouldn’t trust him at -160 odds here.

Oban Elliott (+117 +12 percent) vs. Preston Parsons (-144 -8.2 percent)

This started as a pick ‘em, but the public clearly prefer Preston Parsons in this match-up. That’s resulted in plus odds for the Welshman Oban Elliott. I’m with the public here, as I think Elliott will struggle to take Parsons down.

Muhammad Mokaev (-162 -36 percent) vs. Manel Kape (+132 +26.5 percent)

This is another interesting line with Muhammad Mokaev flipping from a +120 underdog to a -162 favorite. Manel Kape flipped from a -142 favorite to a +132 underdog. I’m with the public here, too, and I would have loved to have gotten plus odds on Mokaev. Kape is a potent offensive fighter, but a lot of what he does is going to open him up for takedowns and Mokaev is the best wrestler in the division.

Sam Patterson (-437 -11 percent) vs. Keifer Crosbie (+338 +29.9 percent)

Keifer Crosbie — who is better known for being Conor McGragor’s pal than anything he’s done in a cage — opened at +200. His odds have steadily lengthened over the week putting him at +338 and making him the biggest underdog on the card. Crosbie is very one dimensional. If Sam Patterson mixes his striking with wrestling, he shouldn’t have too much trouble here. Patterson also has an eight-inch reach advantage.

Mick Parkin (-296 -12.2 percent) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+233 +24.9 percent)

Lukasz Brzeski opened as +150 and that’s lengthened a lot. He might be giving up 30 pounds to Mick Parkin. Parkin should be able to use that weight advantage to his benefit, through clinching and leaning. Not expecting many fireworks here.

Shauna Bannon (-175 +8.5 percent) vs. Alice Ardelan (+143 -15.2 percent)

Alice Ardelean started as a +180 underdog and that has shortened a decent amount. I think people are probably taking a flyer on her and recognizing that you can’t be sure of much with two fighters who have had very little (or zero) UFC exposure.

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UFC 304 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the five biggest line movements at UFC 304:

• Mohammad Mokaev: From +120 underdog to -162 favorite (+36 percent)
• Curtis Blaydes: From +164 underdog to +264 underdog (+33 percent)
• Paddy Pimblett: From +160 underdog to -104 favorite (-32.5 percent)
• Kiefer Crosbie: From +200 underdog to +338 underdog (+29.9 percent)
• Manel Kape: From -142 favorite to +132 underdog (+26.5 percent)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

When looking at the five fighters for each of the past two PPVs with the biggest line movements, the following is true:

• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 0-6.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 2-1.
• Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-1.

UFC 304 Best Underdogs Bets

There are some pretty interesting underdogs on this card. I personally like Hadley and Prachnio the most. But, I can certainly see value higher up the card on Chikadze and Rodrigues.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

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Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card, starting with the “Prelims” play-by-play right here and followed by the main card play-by-play right here. The action begins on ESPN+ with the “Early Prelims” scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET. Those are followed by the late “Prelims” at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+ before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Muhammad 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.