MMABettingBlog SBNationMMA MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck St. Pierre St. Pierre St. Pierre Koscheck Koscheck St. Pierre St. Pierre St. Pierre 71% Stefan Struve vs. Sean McCorkle Struve McCorkle Struve McCorkle Struve Struve Struve Struve 71% Charles Oliveira vs. Jim Miller Miller Miller Oliveira […]
UFC 124 – St. Pierre VS. Koscheck II takes place this Saturday, December 11th, in Montreal. The main event will be a rematch between UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and number one contender Josh Koscheck. Rounding out the main card is a Muay Thai lover’s dream between Thiago Alves and John Howard and a […]
UFC 124 – St. Pierre VS. Koscheck II takes place this Saturday, December 11th, in Montreal. The main event will be a rematch between UFC Welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and number one contender Josh Koscheck. Rounding out the main card is a Muay Thai lover’s dream betweenThiago Alves and John Howard and a battle between two TUF winners in Joe Stevenson and Mac Danzig.
As standard procedure, myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be giving our best bets for tomorrow’s UFC 124 card. There aren’t a ton of betting opportunities on this card, but there are definitely some under card diamonds in the rough. Before you throw your money down on this weekend’s UFC 124, make sure to keep current on the UFC 124 odds. Also, check out MMAMoneyLine’s UFC 124 Pros’ Picks and MMAMoneyLine’s MMA Fighter Profiles (by clicking a fighter’s name on the main page).
Another great example of how the battlefield principle has a profound effect on a fight, the dangerous Thiago Alves will take on John Howard in a spirited striking bout. Alves brings some of the most dangerous stand-up in the division to this bout, but his title hopes have been dashed time and again by the superior technical wrestlers at welterweight. While Howard has a good deal of talent everywhere this fight goes, he doesn’t have the kind of wrestling that will put Alves on his back here, making this a stand-up bout that he’s woefully unprepared for. You can count on the fast hands and hard chin of Alves to be more than enough to batter Howard here, leading to a TKO win or easy decision for the top-tier Welterweight.
In a battle of TUF winners, TUF 2′s Joe “Daddy” Stevenson will make his return to the cage, taking on TUF 6′s Mac Danzig in what will likely be Danzig’s swan song. While neither fighter has found the ability to consistently defeat top competition at Lightweight, Danzig has posted a 3-4 record in the promotion, with all losses coming by way of a man-handling on the mat. Stevenson’s wrestling, pace, and submission defense make this a terrible fight for Danzig, as he’ll find himself fighting off his back for the entire match-up against someone well-equipped to defeat him in that realm. In a grappling and boxing clinic, Stevenson takes the fight to Danzig and walks away with a decision win before moving back up the ladder.
Sean McCorkle will be making his second UFC appearance against tough as nails Stefan Struve. McCorkle is coming off an impressive submission victory against veteran Mark Hunt (impressive because he was able to beat a vet like Hunt in his UFC debut, not because he was able to submit the very submittable Hunt). McCorkle will have his hands full against the savvy Struve.
Stefan Struve’s advantages in most of his fights are his height, toughness, and submission acumen. Against McCorkle, his height will be negated. McCorkle is 6’7″ compared to Struve’s 6’11″. While there is still a four inch difference, McCorkle will have an obvious strength advantage over the gangly Netherlands native. This strength advantage for McCorkle will manifest itself both on the feet and on the floor. Struve’s toughness will be tested often by McCorkle, and although the Skyscraper is very hard to KO, he has been rocked several times by lesser competition (see Christian Morecraft, Paul Buentello, Denis Stojnic).
While Struve has the ability to get a sneaky sub on the undefeated McCorkle, he is going to take a beating just to get the chance. McCorkle will be able to beat Struve to the punch, handle Struve’s submission attempts, and muscle Struve around the octagon. Sean McCorkle by TKO in the second looks good, especially when Big Sexy is at +140.
Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt (see what he did there?) will be making his UFC debut against Rafael Natal. You may know Natal as the guy who beat Travis Lutter on the indie circuit and lost against Rich Attonito in his UFC debut. Sapo also holds a victory over UFC and WEC vet Danillo Villefort.
Bongfeldt holds victories over fellow UFC 124 participants TJ Grant and Sean Pierson. Beating Grant with a submission is an impressive feat, and speaks volumes about Bong’s grappling skills. Both Natal and Bongfeldt have the ability to win by knockout or submission, are similar in height and weight, and have fought top level competition.
In the end, I’m leaning towards Bongfeldt because of his impressive outing against Grant in 2008. He is tough and has hung in there through some real beatings and pulled out the victory. Compared to Natal’s hesitant, almost lackadaisical fight style, I believe Bongfeldt might be more motivated. The fact that he is an underdog at +130 makes a bet on him even more appealing. Bongfeldt by unanimous decision.
Like many other MMA analysts and bloggers, I too believe Matt Riddle versus Sean Pierson is a coin flip. The odds say different, as Pierson is currently a +250 underdog on Sportsbook. Both guys have the same strengths: wrestling, aggressiveness, strength. To be honest with you, I think Matt Riddle probably wins this fight slightly more than he loses, even though many knowledgeable people are picking Pierson for the upset. However, as a smart bettor you have to play the numbers here. Getting Sean Pierson at 29% is a risk worth taking.
Both John Makdessi and his opponent Pat Audinwood have found success against mid-level opposition. Each guy has been in the cage with one top level caliber fighter in Bendy Casimir and Thiago Tavares respectively. This fight will be a styles clash, as Makdessi has very dangerous kickboxing and Audinwood has sound grappling.
I wasn’t too impressed with Audinwood in his first UFC fight against Tavares…however I will give him the benefit of the doubt in that Tavares is a talented veteran. On the other hand, I’ve been hearing a lot about Makdessi. He trains with Georges St. Pierre’s striking coach, Firas Zahabi, and has numerous kickboxing medals and accolades.
What makes this fight most difficult for Audinwood is the lethal striking/take down defense combo that Makdessi possesses. Audinwood is going to take some shots in order to get a chance to use his bread and butter submission game. I’m going with Makdessi here…better striking, better training, better power.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
St. Pierre/TKO/3
McCorkle/TKO/2
Oliveira/SUB/2
Stevenson/UD
Alves/KO/2
Bocek/SD
Almeida/SUB/2
Miller/UD
Bongfeldt/UD
Pierson/UD
Makdessi/TKO/3
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
MMABettingBlog SBNationMMA MMAConvert MMAMoneyLine MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAHive Total Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac Pokrajac Bonnar Bonnar Bonnar Bonnar Bonnar Bonnar Bonnar 86% Jonathan Brookins vs. Michael Johnson Brookins Brookins Brookins Brookins Brookins Brookins Brookins Brookins 100% Demian Maia vs. Kendall Grove Grove Maia Maia Grove Maia Maia Maia Maia 71% […]
Anyone else think Kendall Grove looks like George Sotiropoulos in that picture? Anyway, tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale takes place in Las Vegas (translated from Spanish to English as “The Meadows”), Nevada. The main event, if it could be called that, features former UFC savior Stephan Bonnar squaring off against James Irvin eye crusher Igor […]
Anyone else think Kendall Grove looks like George Sotiropoulos in that picture? Anyway, tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale takes place in Las Vegas (translated from Spanish to English as “The Meadows”), Nevada. The main event, if it could be called that, features former UFC savior Stephan Bonnar squaring off against James Irvin eye crusher Igor Pokrajac. Jonathan Brookins and Michael Johnson will also be duking it out for a six figure UFC contract. Rounding out the card will be an interesting scrap between BJJ ace Demian Maia and former TUF champ Kendall Grove.
As with any other TUF finale card, there is money to be made for the smart yet risky sports bettor. Because there are so many fighter that so many people know so little about, fight lines tend to be a little off. Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for tonight’s Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Pros’ Picks. And here we go…
Coming off of a tough short-notice loss to Chinese MMA pioneer Tie Quan Zhang, the UFC has decided to throw Pablo Garza to the lions, giving him to BJJ ace Fredson Paixao. While Garza showed some skills in his first WEC bout, he has loose transitions and submission skills, showing potential, but a great deal of inexperience with his mat work. The worst possible match for someone like that is to face a strong fundamental grappler, who will shut down their offense and easily work their way into superior positions to win. Paixao is just such a fighter, as a highly-regarded BJJ black belt with wrestling skills to boot, making a near impossible fight for Garza. Short of a fast KO on someone known for their conservative approach, Paixao should easily take down and tap out Garza in the first round. Bookies don’t seem to agree with me, starting Paixao’s line ridiculously low and making for a huge payday with a heavy bet at -165.
My personal pick of potential Fight Of The Night, undefeated Johny Hendricks will make his return to the main card for the first time in over a year, taking on fellow under card wrecking ball Rick “The Horror” Story. Working diligently with Team Takedown, Hendricks has worked at fleshing out his game in his time in the UFC and brings a great combination of dirty boxing and strong take downs to the cage, giving him one up on everyone he’s faced thus far. Story has been working just as hard though, and having found a rhythm in his last several fights, has crushed the competition with his heavy offense and size.
Both men have grown, but both also have holes in their games that the other can exploit in this fight. For Hendricks, he’s a world-class wrestler, but has trouble when pressured. For Story, he has tremendous offensive ability, but has been out-wrestled in the past and his gas tank isn’t up to a three round war. The first round will likely decide this one, as either Hendricks begins the long process of grinding Story down, or finds himself staring at the lights.
This is a very close bout, but one that I think Story is better suited to win. With a size advantage and no fear of engaging Hendricks, he has a great opportunity to put together punches and overwhelm the wrestler here. While the odds were much sweeter a month ago when they were released, taking Story at +175 is a sound value bet in this close competition.
Aaron Wilkinson – Mike Hammersmith (+105 on Sportsbook)
One of the dark horses in the tournament, Aaron Wilkinson had a tough path to walk, but impressed many along the way. Having faced the number one pick from both teams, as well as tournament semi-finalist Kyle Watson, Wilkinson showcased crisp boxing skills, a surprising wrestling ability, and a ton of heart in the cage, landing himself a shot in the Finale. His opponent brings a style of fighting that’s fittingly unorthodox for the bizarre Alaskan native. Having narrowly won his berth on the show with a submission win, McKenzie taught Josh Koscheck‘s number one pick a valuable lesson about confidence and strategy, submitting him in 17 seconds.
With all TUF participants, fighters tend to transform dramatically in the months following the show, and both men have the determination to be dangerous in a short amount of time. My issue with this one is the distance each man has to travel to be UFC level, and I’d have to say Wilkinson is much closer to that mark than McKenzie will ever be. While having a “goofy” fighting style might help in the minor leagues of MMA, such quirkiness often becomes a liability against strong technical fighters. Though McKenzie might have an edge in wrestling and pressure, I’d be very surprised to see his major faults ironed out by show time.
McKenzie is a character, but he isn’t much of a fighter. Being an undersized Lightweight will do him little good at this level, and lacking fundamental striking defense will do him few favors at this level. While he does have a tricky guillotine, once the cat is out of the bag, it isn’t so difficult to avoid getting caught in such things, especially with Wilkinson training with dangerous submission grapplers. With too much ground to make up to compete at this level, McKenzie will find himself battered on the feet and hustled on the mat, for a late submission or decision loss. Oddly, Wilkinson comes into this one as a fairly serious underdog, and while there’s always a risk in betting on TUF fighters, this one seems worth the gamble at +105.
When this line came out, it was one of those “yeowwww, that line is off” moments for me. Kendall Grove at +300 against Demian Maia? Thank you, sir. Listen, I know Maia is a BJJ bad ass. You don’t submit that many UFC caliber guys by luck. However, we have to look at the numbers: Maia is giving up a half of a foot in height and God knows how many inches reach and Kendall Grove has only been submitted once in his career (five years ago).
Can Demian Maia submit Kendall Grove? Absolutely…he has the ability to submit anyone in the division. However, Maia is going to have to get Grove to the ground to submit him. If Kendall had any game plan whatsoever, he would use his striking to keep Maia at bay. Grove is a very skilled striker, which compliments his height very well. When he does lose, he generally loses to heavy handed strikers (Mark Munoz, Jorge Rivera, Patrick Cote, etc). His striking coupled with a decent sprawl could be all it takes to get a decision.
At the end of the day, Maia is a pure jits guy no matter what anyone says. The guys striking blows…sorry Dan Miller. Maia has to contend with Grove’s stand up, not to mention his average to good submission defense. I can see Grove hitting Maia hard, Maia going for the panic double leg, and Grove finishing him off with hammer fists. I think Kendall Grove is a good bet here at far worse odds; at +300 he’s a gift.
Nam Phan is overrated. I should just end this analysis at that sentence, but I will elaborate so I don’t get called out for being lazy. Every name that Phan ever fought he lost to (Omigawa, Evangelista, Cavalcante, Thomson, McCullough). I wasn’t impressed by Phan’s performance on the reality show, and I think he has a hell of a test in front of him.
Leonard Garcia is borderline impossible to knock out, so we can throw that possibility out. Garcia also has an underrated ground game, well deserved by his penchant to stand and bang with everyone he fights. If Nam Phan does take Garcia down, a submission victory will be hard to come by. I just cannot see a way for Nam Phan to get a W here outside of outpointing Garcia for three rounds. To do that, he needs to have the chin and balls to stand in front of Leonard Garcia. Rough deal…I’ll take my chances with “The Haymaker” (Leonard, if you’re reading this…that is your new nickname).
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Bonnar/SD
Brookins/SUB/1
Grove/TKO/2
Hendricks/UD
Garcia/KO/2
Attonito/UD
Paixao/SUB/2
Campuzano/SD
Wilkinson/UD
Toner/TKO/2
Watson/UD
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
Get the DVR ready…we have some serious MMA on this weekend! Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu is going down tonight in St. Louis, Missouri. The main event, as you may have guessed from the name, pits former PRIDE double champion Dan Henderson against former UFC Light Heavyweight number one contender Renato “Babalu” Sobral. Also on […]
Get the DVR ready…we have some serious MMA on this weekend! Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu is going down tonight in St. Louis, Missouri. The main event, as you may have guessed from the name, pits former PRIDE double champion Dan Henderson against former UFC Light Heavyweight number one contender Renato “Babalu” Sobral. Also on the card is a guaranteed slugfest between Paul Daley and Scott Smith and a Middleweight scrap between Olympic silver medalist Matt Lindland and hard hitting Robbie Lawler. Herschel Walker was supposed to be on this card, but the Vikings called him up in case Adrian Peterson couldn’t go this Sunday.
Myself and Mike Hammersmith of MMAHive will be discussing our best bets for Saturday’s Strikeforce event. Before making any wagers on tomorrow’s card, make sure to stay up to date on the Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu odds and check out who other well-informed MMA bloggers are picking over at MMAMoneyLine’s Strikeforce – Henderson VS. Babalu Pros’ Picks. So like Big John McCarthy (and any other ref not creative enough to come up with his own like) would say, LETS GET IT ON!
You might not think a decade-old loss would weigh on someone’s mind, but apparently Renato “Babalu” Sobral thinks differently. Following a win over “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler in his last outing, Sobral passed up a shot at the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Title, instead opting to fight Dan Henderson in an attempt to redeem his first professional loss. All too happy to compete at Light Heavyweight again, Henderson will look for a definitive win over Sobral and a shot at Rafael Cavalcante‘s title if he can get one over on Sobral again.
Henderson is one of the greatest fighters of his generation, and makes for a tough test for anyone at any weight class. Even still, Henderson’s best years are clearly behind him, and his best work has been done at middle, or middleweight opponents outside this weight. While Sobral doesn’t bring anything Henderson hasn’t seen in a thirty-three match and thirteen year career, the question is if he can handle a full-sized Light Heavyweight at this point.
While Henderson does have one punch power and some high-level wrestling, he hasn’t been able to shine at Light Heavyweight in quite some time. The fact of the matter is, if Quinton Jackson could out-wrestle Henderson at 205lbs, the much more technical Sobral shouldn’t have much issue with the task either. Short of Henderson landing a monster punch, Sobral has the boxing to keep Henderson at jab range and the counter-wrestling to take top if the older fighter tries for the take down. In a competitive bout, Sobral takes a close decision over the tough-as-nails Henderson.
I was flip flopping on this fight up until the beginning of this week. Here is a stream of consciousness look at what I’m thinking about this fight. Concerning Ovince St. Preux, he is coming off an impressive win against Antwain Britt, his striking looked pretty good, his back defense looked more than serviceable, and he is bigger than most of Radach’s past opponents (Radach usually fights at Middleweight, St. Preux is a Light Heavyweight). Concerning Benji Radach, he is a consumate veteran of the sport facing very tough guys like Scott Smith, Gerald Harris, Brian Foster, Chris Leben, and Sean Sherk. Radach has 26 pro fights with 17 knockouts; the guy hits like a train but has a questionable chin with 5 knockout losses.
When it comes down to it, I’m playing the line here. St. Preux, a relative newcomer to MMA, is a favorite over a wily veteran like Radach because he is coming off of a win and Radach is coming off of a loss. Although Ovince St. Preux did beat Antwain Britt, he lost a round and the last round of that fight was pretty much two gassed guys trying to gut it out. Although Benji Radach lost his last fight to Scott Smith, he was arguably winning two rounds before getting knocked out in the third by the King of Comebacks. I believe this line to be overinflated in St. Preux favor because of the two fighters respective previous fights. I also believe this fight will take place on the feet, and will take Radach’s knockout power and stamina over St. Preux’s inexperience and gas tank issues.
MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:
Henderson/TKO/2
Daley/KO/2
Silva/TKO/1
Lawler/KO/2
Radach/TKO/3
Yeah…that’s 5 knockouts. You heard it here first.
MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):
