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UFC 118 Predictions

UFC 118 – Edgar VS. Penn II takes place this Saturday, August 28th, in “Bahstan”. In the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first event in the historic city, a rematch for the UFC Lightweight title will be contested between Frankie Edgar and BJ Penn. The number one contender for this title will also be determined by Kenny Florian versus Gray Maynard. The co-main event (arguably considered the main draw in public eyes) will feature a “boxing versus MMA” bout between respective former champions James Toney and Randy Couture.

In customary fashion, my friend Mike Hammersmith will also be giving his best bets for this weekend’s event. Before you place your bets, make sure to “line shop” by checking out the UFC 118 odds across several sports books, in addition to looking over the MMAMoneyLine Betting Guide and UFC 118 Pros’ Picks.

Greg Soto – Mike Hammersmith (+150 on SportBet)

In a potential sleeper fight of the night, New Jersey fighter Greg Soto will look to gain a foothold inside the UFC, coming off a disappointing DQ against Matt Riddle in his debut. A BJJ brown belt and top-notch wrestler in one of the most competitive districts in the state, Soto has done well for himself in the cage in his career, but will need to be sharp against TUF 9 veteran Nick Osipczak if he hopes to stick around in the UFC for long.

This is an interesting fight, and one where the line has been steadily moving due to a bit of MMath on the part of bettors, based on the fighter’s common opponent in Matt Riddle. While Soto was well on his way to a losing decision against the Welterweight workhorse, Osipczak easily bet Riddle in every round, and finally sealed the deal in the third with some brutal ground and pound. This comparison, for my two cents, is apples and oranges though, as Riddle is a clinch wrestling grinder and found himself eating rapid offense on the feet while trying to get his game working. If there’s a comparison to be made, it would be between Soto and Osipczak’s last opponent in Welterweight ox Rick Story, whose simple takedowns, top control and submission defense earned him a tough decision over Osipczak.

I wouldn’t normally recommend this fight, but considering it’s gone from even odds to Osipczak being a firm favorite, taking a small chance on Soto at +150 suddenly becomes a smart move. Look for Soto to work his magic on the mat, neatly avoid Osipczak’s submissions, and get the judge’s nod.

Dan Miller – Mike Hammersmith -265 on SportBet)

Not too many fighters have had as tough of a road in the UFC as Dan Miller, but with three loses in a row to top competition, the stage is set for him to take back his place at the top of the division. Miller is an interesting mix of wrestling and BJJ, and much like his brother Jim Miller, finds a way to meet force with slickness and slickness with force, having baited top-level wrestler Jake Rosholt into a quick tap guillotine, but also having muscled notoriously savvy grapplers Rob Kimmons and Matt Horwich by virtue of his wrestling talent and heavy top game.

His opponent is John Salter, who has the unenviable position of being a poor man’s Dan Miller, taking on Dan Miller. This is a fight Salter has practically no outs to win, being unable to stop Miller’s takedowns and submissions and not having the standing skills to do much in the face of a superior opponent. Additionally, the three losses in a row has seemed to scare book makers, as Miller at -265 is easily the best bet on the card, for my money.

Mario Miranda – Mike Hammersmith +205 on Bodog)

Coming off a complete demolition of David “The Crow” Loiseau in his last bout, Miranda has flown under the radar in the UFC, but has a chance to launch himself deep into the Middleweight ranks here. A multiple-time national champion in both Greco Roman and Freestyle wrestling, Miranda compliments his grappling savvy with a BJJ black belt and strong technical muay thai skills, all packed into a giant Middleweight frame.

While we all know Maia is a killer on the mat, we’ve also all seen what happens when he can’t put a fight on the mat on his own terms. Miranda presents a real problem here with his multi-faceted skill-set, considerable size advantage, as well as a long training camp, part of which was spent dummying as Chael Sonnen against Maia’s last foe, Anderson Silva. This is a 50/50 fight as to whether or not Maia can put this on the mat and do anything to Miranda, or if he’ll be stymied by the lengthy striking and smart takedown attack of Miranda, and Miranda makes for a good underdog pick at +205.

Kenny Florian – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on Bodog)

Kenny Florian, thus far always the bridesmaid and never the bride. The Massachusetts native has come a long way since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter. For the last few years, Florian has been a stalwart in the elite class of UFC Lightweight. His Muay Thai and mental game has caught up to his technical BJJ abilities and lanky, MMA-friendly physique, making him an extremely dangerous fighter.

Florian will have a tough fight against pedigreed wrestler, improving boxer and decision machine Gray Maynard. How tough of a fight? Not as tough as most people think. Whenever a wrestler of Maynard’s level is involved, the possibility of a hard fought, grinding fight greatly increases.

However, Kenny Florian has several advantages in this fight. He’s fought several high quality wrestlers already including Takanori Gomi, Clay Guida, Sean Sherk and Joe Stevenson. Against this foursome, he’s gone 3-1 with his only loss being to a bloodied and beaten Sherk. Maynard has never fought anyone like Florian; the closest comparison probably being Nate Diaz. In addition, I believe Maynard has too much confidence in his improved boxing. If he stands with Florian, he’s likely in serious trouble. Maynard elected to stand with Nate Diaz because of Diaz’s ground prowess, and I expect him to do the same against another high level BJJ practitioner.

In the end, Florian gets the better of Maynard in the striking and submission category. Maynard does have a distinct wrestling advantage, but that comes against a very good submission fighter. Plus, Maynard might not even use his wrestling as much as he should. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: Kenny Florian only loses to the best, and Gray Maynard, although incredibly tough, is not the best. I’d have little problem throwing a unit on Florian at -155.

Nate Diaz – MMAMoneyLine (-200 on Bodog)

Easily the best bet on the card. Everything about Marcus Davis says “I’m not going to stand a chance against Nate Diaz”. The well known “punches in bunches” boxing style of the Diaz boys poses a huge problem for a methodical striker like Davis. In addition, Davis will not find refuge on the mat against the Gracie black belt.

Davis is a big, strong, muscular Welterweight, while Diaz is a tall, skinny Lighweight. The problem is this is MMA, not weightlifting. The more muscle on your frame, the more oxygen your body needs. Diaz has some of the best cardio in MMA and I can easily see him taking Marcus into deep waters. One last nail in the coffin is that Marcus Davis, an ex-pro boxer, has a propensity to cut easily.

Diaz isn’t going to knock Marcus Davis out, but a cut stoppage, submission or definitive decision victory seems obvious. I’ll go with the cut in the 3rd. Nate Diaz is still a really good play at -200.

Nick Osipczak – MMAMoneyLine (-155 on BetUS)

I differ with Mr. Hammersmith on the Osipczak/Soto fight. When the odds came out, this line was even. I jumped on Osipczak immediately. In their common opponent, Matt Riddle, Nick Osipczak dominated for three rounds while Greg Soto was well on his way to a decision loss before an illegal upkick. Although Osipczak dropped a decision to Rick Story, most agree that the decision could have easily gone the other way. I also think Rick Story further established himself as a serious mixed martial artist with his beatdown on Dustin Hazelett.

Osipczak is the better fighter, in my opinion. Although he is billed as a striker and Soto a wrestler/BJJ player, Osipczak showed his mettle against a good wrestler. I see this fight playing out a lot like Osipczak/Riddle, with Slick Nick’s defense being too frustrating and offense too overwhelming. Hopefully you got Osipczak at better odds, but -155 on BetUS is certainly worth a unit.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Penn/SUB/2

Couture/SUB/1

Miranda/KO/2

Florian/UD

Diaz/UD

Lauzon/TKO/2

Lentz/UD

Miller/UD

Osipczak/SUB/2

Pierce/KO/1

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Florian 1 u. at -125 on Sportsbook

Diaz – 1 u. at -180 on Sportsbook

Osipczak – 1 u. at -115 on Bodog

WEC 50 Predictions

WEC 50 – Cruz VS Benavidez takes place tonight, August 18th in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features a Bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Joseph Benavidez. Also appearing on the card are Cub Swanson, Chad Mendes, Scott Jorgensen, Brad Pickett, Bart Palaszewski, Anthony Pettis and Shane Roller. As always, Mike Hammersmith will […]

As always, Mike Hammersmith will be helping me out with the picks for WEC 50. Make sure to check out the odds and Pros’ Picks before making any last minute bets!

Zach Micklewright – Mike Hammersmith (+200 on BetUS)

It’s interesting to think that Bart Palaszewski has more experience than any three fighters on this card, and while that experience helps in keeping cool under fire, it also illustrates the problems a fighter has, and seemingly continues to have. Palaszewski’s opponent at WEC 50 is an unheralded 9-1 fighter named Zach Micklewright, and while you might not have heard of him yet, he’s likely destined for big things after this fight.

While Palaszewski has a great track record in the cage and is a jack of all trades, he’s always had two weaknesses; strong wrestlers and rangy strikers. Micklewright is the latter, and one of the better muay thai strikers Palaszewski will have faced in his career, as well as one of the best conditioned athletes he’s faced. While Palaszewski has decent inside boxing and could take this fight to the mat if Micklewright closes distance too often, its just as likely Micklewright picks Palaszewski apart from the outside and walks away with a decision or late TKO. In a very close bout, Micklewright comes in as an excellent bet at +200.

Mackens Semerzier – Mike Hammersmith +190 on Bodog)

Fight fans and bookies are funny sometimes, and no more so than with fighters like Mackens Semerzier. When Semerzier came onto the scene against Wagnny Fabiano as a complete unknown, the odds were firmly in Fabiano’s favor at -700 and essentially no one gave Semerzier any sort of a chance against the highly-respected BJJ grappler. Fabiano apparently didn’t give Semerzier much of a chance either, as he foolishly dropped into a triangle and found himself on the receiving end of “Upset Of The Year” in several publications.

Instead of people looking at this fight and coming to the conclusion that Fabiano made a foolish mistake against someone with more skill than he thought, fans jumped onto the Semerzier bandwagon, assumed he was a better grappler than the mighty Fabiano, and blindly followed him to a decision loss against Devidis Taurosevicius, where Semerzier was a -155 favorite against someone whom he should have rightly been a hefty underdog against.

What happens now is very important in sports betting, as there’s a period of uncertainty in Semerzier with his 1-1 record, and often the odds on his fights will be screwy for quite some time. Such is the case here as Semerzier takes on veteran grappler Javier Vazquez as a substantial underdog at +190.

While I feel Vazquez is one of the most under-rated grapplers of his time, Semerzier isn’t the push-over people assumed he was in his first fight, and may actually make this a competitive bout. What this really comes down to is scoring though, as I don’t doubt this fight will find its way to a decision. Looking at Vazquez record, you’ll notice an unusually large amount of split decisions after his promotion to a black belt in BJJ. This is mainly due to his peculiar method of shooting a takedown, where he flips into guard at the moment his takedown fails as a way of achieving a ground fight even if he can’t get top position. While this is an interesting and innovative attack method, it often gives the judges the illusion that Vazquez has been stuffed and taken down by his opponent, leading to top control points and decisions that rightly should have gone his way. In what could be a frantic grappling bout, these moments are critical and may result in a close fight going the way of Semerzier, making him worth a small wager.

Note: For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version. Here are the main points for my three best picks.

Fredson Paixao – MMAMoneyLine (-170 on 5Dimes)

Fredson Paixao versus Bryan Caraway will surely be a grappling exhibition. With that being said, I believe Paixao to be a superior grappler. Both guys have mostly lost against top tier competition, but if Caraway can’t defend a Mark Hominick submission, I don’t think he’ll have the chops to keep a guy of Paixao’s pedigree off him. I like Fredson Paixao at -170.

Ricardo Lamas – MMAMoneyLine (-135 on BetUS)

Although Dave Jansen showed some serious toughness against Kamal Shalorus, he wasn’t close to finishing the fight at any point. This fight actually opened with Jansen the favorite, but has since flipped over (if you got Lamas at underdog odds, nice work). Lamas has wins over Bart Palaszewski, Bendy Casimir and James Krause, some tough fighters with diverse skill sets. Jansen does hold an impressive win over Rich Crunkilton, but the Cleat has a very similar style. Both guys are strong wrestlers, but Lamas clearly holds a striking advantage and is the more explosive fighter. I still like Ricardo Lamas at -135.

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Cruz/UD

Roller/UD

Jorgensen/UD

Mendes/SUB/1

Micklewright/TKO/2

Lamas/UD

Vazquez/SD

Paixao/SUB/2

Njokuani/KO/1

Castillo/TKO/2

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Micklewright .5 u. at +190 on BetUS

Paixao – .75 u. at -175 on Bodog

Lamas – 1 u. at -135 on BetUS

WEC 50 Pros’ Picks

MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez Benavidez – Cruz Benavidez Cruz Cruz Cruz Cruz 67% Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis Roller – Roller Roller Roller Roller Roller Roller 100% Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett Jorgensen – Jorgensen Jorgensen Jorgensen Jorgensen Jorgensen Jorgensen 100% […]

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total

Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez	Benavidez	–	Cruz	Benavidez	Cruz	Cruz	Cruz	Cruz 67%

Shane Roller vs. Anthony Pettis	Roller	–	Roller	Roller	Roller	Roller	Roller	Roller 100%

Scott Jorgensen vs. Brad Pickett	Jorgensen	–	Jorgensen	Jorgensen	Jorgensen	Jorgensen	Jorgensen	Jorgensen 100%

Chad Mendes vs. Cub Swanson	Swanson	–	Mendes	Mendes	Mendes	Mendes	Mendes	Mendes 83%

Bart Palaszewski vs. Zach Micklewright	Palaszewski	–	Micklewright	Micklewright	Mickleweight	Micklewright	Micklewright	Micklewright 83%

Dave Jansen vs. Ricardo Lamas	Jansen	–	Jansen	Lamas	Lamas	Lamas	Lamas	Lamas 67%

Javier Vazquez vs. Mackens Semerzier	Vazquez	–	Semerzier	Vazquez	Vazquez	Vazquez	Vazquez	Vazquez 83%

Fredson Paixao vs. Bryan Caraway	Caraway	–	Paixao	Caraway	Paixao	Caraway	Paixao	EVEN

Anthony Njokuani vs. Maciej Jewtuszko	Njokuani	–	Njokuani	Njokuani	Njokuani	Njokuani	Njokuani	Njokuani 100%

Danny Castillo vs. Dustin Poirier	Castillo	–	Poirier	Castillo	Castillo	Poirier	Castillo	Castillo 67%

Tiebreak	Benavidez/SUB/4	–	Cruz/UD	Benavidez/TKO	Cruz/TKO/2	Cruz/UD	Cruz/UD	–

Total	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

UFC 122 – NOVEMBER 13, 2010

5Dimes BetCRIS BetOnline BetUS Bodog Bookmaker Diamond SportBet SportsBook SportsInt. Krzysztof Soszynski – – – – – – – – – – Goran Reljic – – – – – – – – – – Amir Sadollah – – – – – – – – – – Peter Sobotta – – – – […]

	5Dimes	BetCRIS	BetOnline	BetUS	Bodog	Bookmaker	Diamond	SportBet	SportsBook	SportsInt.

Krzysztof Soszynski	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Goran Reljic	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Amir Sadollah	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
Peter Sobotta	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Dennis Siver	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
TBA	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Pascal Krauss	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
TBA	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Best Odds

Updated 8/18/10 4:23 PM EST

The Future Of The UFC Welterweight Division

After reading this article on CagePotato, I was moved to do my own analysis of the current state of the UFC Welterweight division. The gentlemen over at CagePotato raise some very valid points and echo the sentiment of many MMA blogs and fans. The UFC Welterweight division is currently facing a number of problems, the biggest of which is the repetitive nature atop the division. The scheduled UFC Welterweight championship fight between Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck is a rematch. Assuming St. Pierre is victorious, his next championship defense against Jon Fitch is a rematch. Even if Thiago Alves beat Jon Fitch at UFC 117, St. Pierre/Alves and Koscheck/Alves fight have both been done. In addition to the St. Pierre/Koscheck/Fitch/Alves mundane foursome, the current champion has also soundly defeated three other Welterweights in the top 20 (Dan Hardy, Matt Hughes and Matt Serra).

Several other factors also attribute to the lack of excitement surrounding the future of the UFC Welterweight division. Jake Shields, the UFC’s newest big-name addition, is legendary for his plodding fighting style. Another main point of contention is that even if Josh Koscheck were to pull off the miraculous upset, he has expressed in the past that he won’t fight his training partner Jon Fitch. Combine these factors with the steep drop off of competitive Welterweights after the top 5 and you have quite the situation.

Here is a breakdown of the upcoming UFC Welterweight contests, in addition to my outlook into the future of the once-landmark UFC division. Let’s see what we really have to look forward to in late 2010 through 2011. Be warned, this is an article to sink your teeth into; it is not for the faint of heart!

UFC Welterweight matchups that are scheduled or rumored:

The Contenders

(1)Georges St. Pierre VS. (5)Josh Koscheck – UFC 124

The two coaches of the upcoming season of the Ultimate Fighter will be duking it out in December. Koscheck, who is coming off of three straight wins, will be looking to avenge his loss at UFC 74. Koscheck’s heelish antics on the reality show will be about the most exciting part of this fight, as many people (including me) expect the champion to easily defend his title here. St. Pierre has the edge in every aspect of this fight, including wrestling. Unless Koscheck is able to land a Serra-esque shot, this one will be a dominant five-round decision.

(2)Jake Shields VS. (10)Martin Kampmann – UFC 121

Poor Martin Kampmann. I like everything about “The Hitman”; he’s an exciting, tough, well rounded fighter who deserves to be at the top of the Welterweight heap. Unfortunately for him, Jake Shields has beaten better strikers (Paul Daley), better wrestlers (Dan Henderson) and better BJJ players (Jason Miller) than Kampmann. He also has a decision win over Carlos Condit, a fighter with a lot of stylistic similarities to Kampmann. Shields takes a decision here and is likely in line for a title shot in late 2011.

(7)Dan Hardy VS. (21)Carlos Condit – UFC 120

This is probably the most exciting fight at the top of the UFC Welterweight division. In their last five fights, these two have been involved in four split decisions. Both guys are as game as they come, and this fight is going to steal the show in England. I’m giving an edge to “The Outlaw” in this fight because of his crushing punching power and Condit’s willingness to stand and trade. The winner of this fight is likely one win away from a title shot.

(13)Chris Lytle VS. (19)Matt Serra – UFC 119

Great piece of matchmaking by Joe Silva. This fight has an interesting dynamic: Lytle, who is a former professional boxer, is coming off two submission victories while Serra, a world class jiu jitsu player, has gotten his last two Ws courtesy of his knockout power. This is a rematch of Serra and Lytle’s fight at the Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale in 2006, which Matt Serra won via split decision. It was a close fight four years ago, but it won’t be in September. Lytle is far more improved and should outwork a tough as nails “Terrah” later this summer.

(17)Nate Diaz VS. (22)Marcus Davis – UFC 118

Nate Diaz is the 17th ranked Welterweight, which is pretty impressive considering he’s a Lightweight. His win over Rory Markham must have made quite an impression. His victory over Marcus Davis is going to propel the younger Diaz into the thick of the Welterweight hunt. Davis is tailor-made for Diaz: he won’t be able to knock Nate out or submit him. The difference in this fight is going to be that hyper-active Diaz striking combined with Marcus Davis’ withering gas tank in the late rounds.

(11)John Hathaway VS. (36)Mike Pyle – UFC 120

John Hathaway is arguably the hottest prospect in the UFC’s 170 lb. division. The undefeated Brit has bested three very tough mixed martial artists in his short UFC career, with his crowning achievement being an absolute destruction of Diego Sanchez. Mike Pyle replaced an injured Dong Hyun Kim to take on Hathaway at UFC 120, which is a useful result for Hathaway. He will have a much easier time with Pyle than he would have with Kim. Although Pyle is an MMA vet with respected submission ability, I think the kid is going to be too much for him.

Possible Contenders

(24)Paulo Thiago VS. (27)Diego Sanchez

Both Thiago and Sanchez have been very close to a title shot, with Sanchez actually earning a title shot at 155. However, Thiago and Sanchez are coming off tough decision losses at the hands of Martin Kampmann and John Hathaway respectively. This fight will push the winner over the hump of the Welterweight division, sending the loser back down to gatekeeper status. Thiago/Sanchez is a very tough fight to call; both fighters are skilled, well rounded and nearly impossible to finish. In a close fight, I go with the wrestler with sound submission defense. That fighter is Sanchez, and he gets his first win at Welterweight since June 2008.

(37)Mike Pierce VS. (UR)Amilcar Alves

Mike Pierce’s competitive loss against Jon Fitch has done more for Pierce’s career than either of his two UFC wins. Fight Magazine currently lists Pierce as the 37th Welterweight in the world, and he has the daunting task of trying to improve than number in a lose-lose situation. Jose Aldo training partner, Amilcar Alves, will certainly be game for this fight and has the Muay Thai, Judo and BJJ background to pull off an upset here. If Pierce beats an unknown UFC newcomer, his stock won’t go up too much. However, I expect the Brazilian to pull of the upset…perhaps positioning himself to be a future WW contender.

The future of the UFC Welterweight division:

The Contenders

St. Pierre/Koscheck winner VS. (3)Jon Fitch

We’re very likely looking at St. Pierre/Fitch II to main-event a mid-2011 UFC event. To be honest, I’m kind of hoping for a Koscheck upset just to see the chaos in the Dana White/Josh Koscheck/Jon Fitch triangle. Nevertheless, I expect two things from this fight: St. Pierre will be Fitch’s opponent and will beat him soundly (again). Jon Fitch is far from invincible, and a bigger Welterweight with better wrestling will expose him. Look forward to St. Pierre/Shields in late 2011 or early 2012.

Hathaway/Pyle winner VS. Diaz/Davis winner

Hathaway/Diaz is the likely outcome here, although any other combination is far from outside the realm of possibility. I’d like to think that the aforementioned result is what the UFC is looking for: new blood at the top of the Welterweight contender list. Even if the Hathaway/Diaz contender eliminator doesn’t work out, a Pyle/Diaz jiu jitsu fest or a Hathaway/Davis scrap would both be Fight Night main card worthy.

Sanchez/Thiago winner VS. (9)Thiago Alves

Diego Sanchez and Paulo Thiago have been fighting the cream of the crop of their divisions, and the winner of their fight should continue to do so. Assuming Thiago Alves can get his weight under control (I was compelled to make a Thiago Alves/Anthony Johnson weight making elimination fight), this could be a fresh, entertaining fight for the 170 class. A possible Sanchez/Alves fight has solid name value and good drawing power; an excellent co-main event or main card fight. Beyond that, a Thiago/Alves tilt (see what I did there?) could also be a competitive contest to move one of these former contenders back up the ladder.

Lytle/Serra winner VS. Hardy/Condit winner

Staying consistent with my earlier breakdowns, I believe (and am silently hoping) a Chris Lytle/Dan Hardy fight is on deck for 2011. If you don’t want to see that slug fest, you should probably stop watching MMA. A fight the magnitude of Hardy/Lytle could very well be the Garcia/Jung of 2011. If this fight does happen, I’d honestly put in on a free Spike prelim if I was the UFC brass (even though it is clearly a main-card fight. This fight would establish a top five UFC Welterweight and give a wrestling-centric weight class a little bit of explosiveness.

(4)Matt Hughes VS. (32)Dennis Hallman

Mark my words, this fight happens. Matt Hughes is at the point of his career where he is looking for interesting fights rather than rank-elevating opponents. The Ricardo Almeida, Renzo Gracie and Matt Serra fights are clear examples of this. What better storyline for a fight than the greatest Welterweight in the history of MMA facing the one man who has gone 2-0 against him. To me, its almost like karma that Hallman and Hughes both pulled off upsets at 117. I was under the impression that a future Hughes/Hallman fight was the sole purpose of signing “Superman”. I don’t think this fight gets either fighter a shot at the belt, but it is easily promotable.

Shields/Kampmann loser VS. (8)Jake Ellenberger

Jake Ellenberger need a big fight. Two TKO victories over two very respectable mixed martial artists on the heels of a split decision loss than could have gone either way makes Jake Ellenberger probably the brightest 170 lb. prospect not named John Hathaway. The UFC tossed this kid in the deep end against the likes of Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle and John Howard, so its obvious they aren’t giving him the Jon Jones treatment. He is an exciting fighter, and a possible showdown with Martin Kampmann could blow the roof off a venue. The fight makes sense no matter who wins the Shields/Kampmann fight.

St. Pierre/Koscheck loser VS. Hardy/Condit loser

Koscheck versus Condit…I like it. The odds are long against a St. Pierre/Hardy rematch or a St. Pierre/Condit scrap (although that one would be interesting), so Koscheck VS. Hardy/Condit is highly probable. Despite who loses the Hardy/Condit fight at UFC 120, a Welterweight fight comprised of two of the three will be fresh, exciting and marketable. Koscheck and Hardy have already had some heated words after the Koscheck/Daly fight, so that piece of matchmaking is a no brainer. The more likely outcome, Koscheck/Condit, will pit the world class wrestler against a well rounded fighter with dangerous striking, submissions and an iron chin.

Possible Contenders

(28)Anthony Johnson VS. (39)John Howard

Hathaway/Pyle loser VS. (43)Mike Swick

Sanchez/Thiago loser VS. Diaz/Davis loser

(53)Dustin Hazelett VS. (16)Ricardo Almeida

Lytle/Serra loser VS. (34)Renzo Gracie

(14) Rick Story VS. (15)Dong Hyun Kim

(23)Johny Hendricks VS. (31)Matt Riddle

(46)Ben Saunders VS. (50)Matt Brown

The Rest

(59)TJ Grant VS. (UR)Julio Paulino

(UR)Nick Osipczak VS. (UR)Greg Soto

Grant/Paulino winner VS. (42)Amir Sadollah

(61)DaMarques Johnson VS. (51)James Wilks

UFC 117 Pros’ Picks

MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen Silva Silva Silva Silva – Silva Sonnen Silva 83% Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves Fitch Fitch Fitch Fitch – Fitch Fitch Fitch 100% Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson Nelson dos Santos dos Santos Nelson – dos Santos […]

	MMABettingBlog	WatchKalibRun	MMAConvert	MiddleEasy	MMAAdNet	MMAValor	MMAMafia	Total

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen	Silva	Silva	Silva	Silva	–	Silva	Sonnen	Silva 83%

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch	–	Fitch	Fitch	Fitch 100%

Junior dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson	Nelson	dos Santos	dos Santos	Nelson	–	dos Santos	dos Santos	dos Santos 67%

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Hughes	Hughes	Almeida	Almeida	Hughes	–	Almeida	Almeida	Almeida 67%

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos	Guida	dos Anjos	Guida	Guida	–	Guida	Guida	Guida 83%

Tim Boetsch vs. Todd Brown	Boetsch	Boetsch	Boetsch	Boetsch	–	Brown	Boetsch	Boetsch 83%

Ben Saunders vs. Dennis Hallman	Saunders	Saunders	Saunders	Hallman	–	Saunders	Saunders	Saunders 83%

Dustin Hazelett vs. Rick Story	Hazelett	Hazelett	Hazelett	Hazelett	–	Story	Hazelett	Hazelett 83%

Johny Hendricks vs. Charlie Brenneman	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks	–	Hendricks	Hendricks	Hendricks 100%

Stefan Struve vs. Christain Morecraft	Struve	Struve	Struve	Struve	–	Morecraft	Struve	Struve 83%

Phil Davis vs. Rodney Wallace	Davis	Davis	Davis	Davis	–	Davis	Davis	Davis 100%

Tiebreak	Silva/SUB/3	Silva/SUB/2	Silva/SUB/2	Silva/STOP	–	Silva/TKO/2	Sonnen/UD	–

Total	8/11 (73%)	7/11 (67%)	8/11 (73%)	9/11 (82%)	–	7/11 (67%)	7/11 (67%)	MiddleEasy