UFC On Versus 2 Predictions

UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego.  The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko.  Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz. Without further adieu, […]

UFC On Versus 2 – Jones VS. Matyusheno takes place Sunday, August 1st in San Diego.  The main event will feature Jon Jones’ toughest test of his career as he faces grizzled Belarussian veteran Vladimir Matyushenko.  Also appearing on this card is a pivotal Middleweight fight between Yushin Okami and Mark Munoz.

Without further adieu, here are myself and Mike Hammersmith‘s best bets for tonight’s UFC On Versus card.  Make sure to check out the Pros Picks as well!

Jon JonesMike Hammersmith (-560 on SportBet)

The UFC never pretended to be fair in their match-making; showing definite favor towards some fighters, and mercilessly disposing of others, and with this in mind, it’s fairly obvious which camp Jon Jones is in. Having gained instant stardom with his upset victory over Andre Gusmao, and his wild arsenal of spinning strikes and five-point Greco-Roman throws, Jones has had a tailor-made path to the top of the division.

His next opponent is the gritty veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, whom stands as one of the several striker/wrestlers Jones has faced, and whom should prove to be an easy opponent to train for. This fight really does come down to training too, as the aging Matyushenko has started to show his age in his fights way back to his last matches IFL and comes into this fight with a predictable game plan and the wrong set of skills to deal with Jones. With Jones having trained for, fought, and defeated guys like Jake O’Brien and Matt Hamill, he’s essentially already worked on the blue print to beat Matyushenko, and comes into this fight a heavy favorite in my book.

Matyushenko doesn’t have the reach or fine technical skills to out-strike Jones, and with his speed gone, can never hope to shoot from outside Jones 84″ reach and catch a meaningful takedown. This fight is built to give Jones more experience and move him closer to the title picture, and while the payout is less than grand, a hearty bet at -560  is easy money.

 

John HowardMike Hammersmith (+150 on SportsBet)

Some may say he’s lucky to be undefeated in the UFC, but none can deny the talent of John “Doomsday” Howard. Having taken two split decision wins and delivered two KOs in his time inside the cage, Howard is making his main card debut after toiling in the dark matches, and will do so against another highly exciting fighter in Jake Ellenberger.
Both men have real KO power, fast transitions, and well-developed mat-work, with Howard having an advantage working off his back, while Ellenberger is likely the better striker of the two. When it comes down to it, I’d give a slight edge to Howard based on Ellenberger’s weakness working off his back, combined with Howard’s strong takedown skills. Sportbooks seem to be over-valuing Ellenberger here, making a small wager on Howard at +150 a good payout for a coin-flip fight.

 

Igor PokrajacMike Hammersmith (+155 on Bookmaker)

It’s rare to see a fighter given a third opportunity in the UFC after going 0-2, but anyone who’s watched Igor Pokrajac’s appearances will know why. A sturdy wrestler with a natural talent on the feet, Pokrajac gave as good as he got in his fights with both Vladimir Matyushenko and James Te Huna, coming up just short on the scorecards, despite having both men in trouble in their bouts.
He’ll now be brought in against backsliding fighter James Irvin, who is also coming off of two losses, having only fought twice in the last two years. Irvin has had issues with everything from injury to failing drug tests to disastrous weight-cuts, and comes into this fight with little to offer except his incredible punching power. Punching power is the great equalizer, and when both men have it and are willing to trade, you end up with a very even fight. With that in mind, Pokrajac comes into this bout at +155 and makes for the best bet on the card, in my mind, for payout to risk.

 

Note:  For my picks, I’m going to be giving a bit of an abbreviated version.  Here are the main points for my three best picks.
 
 
Yushin Okami MMAMoneyLine (-185 on Bodog)

Mark Munoz has been incredibly inconsistent, and has shown weakness in fights against Kendall Grove, Matt Hamill and Nick Catone.  While Munoz has high level wrestling, he hasn’t used it well.  Okami has better MMA-centric grappling and more technical striking.  These to factors, in addition to Okami’s experience will allow him to expose the holes in Munoz’s still-developing MMA game en route to a decision victory.  Throw a decent sized bet down on Okami over at Bodog.

 
Brian StannMMAMoneyLine (+140 on SportsBet)

If MMA betting has taught me one valuable lesson, its not to bet on someone coming off an injury.  While a healthy Mike Massenzio would probably be a slight favorite over Brian Stann, that is clearly not the case here.  Massenzio hasn’t fought in 2 years and is getting some unfair respect over a guy who lost to Phil Davis (editor’s note:  everyone loses to Phil Davis).  Stann’s improving game is the polar opposite of Massenzio’s injury troubles…in MMA you need to fight to improve.  Stann is a very exciting pick at +140.

 
Darren ElkinsMMAMoneyLine (+300 on Bodog)

Charles Oliveira is overrated in my opinion.  Word on the street is that he’s quite the prospect, but word on the next street is that his striking is sloppy and he’s fairly one dimensional.  Yes, his BJJ will be worlds above anything Darren Elkins possesses.  However, I think the +300 line on the UFC-tested Elkins is worth a play because Oliveira will have to submit him to win.  Elkins is at least worth a look at this pretty inflated line.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

Jones/KO/2

Okami/UD

Ellenberger/TKO/2

Griffin/UD

Kelly/SUB/3

Pokrajac/TKO/1

Riddle/SUB/1

Stann/UD

Kimmons/UD

Elkins/TKO/2

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Okami – 2 u. at -180 on Sportsbook

Pokrajac – .5 u. at +160 on BetUS

Stann – 1 u. at +140 on SportsBet

Elkins – .25 u. at +300 on Bodog

UFC 116 Pros’ Picks

  MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total   Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin Lesnar Carwin Lesnar Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin Carwin 71%   Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Akiyama Leben Akiyama Leben Akiyama 71%   Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Brown Lytle Lytle Lytle Lytle 86%   […]

 
Total
 
Brock Lesnar vs.
Shane Carwin
Lesnar
Carwin
Lesnar
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin
Carwin 71%
 
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs.
Chris Leben
Akiyama
Akiyama
Akiyama
Akiyama
Leben
Akiyama
Leben
Akiyama 71%
 
Chris Lytle vs.
Matt Brown
Lytle
Lytle
Lytle
Brown
Lytle
Lytle
Lytle
Lytle 86%
 
Krzysztof Soszynski vs.
Stephan Bonnar
Soszynski
Bonnar
Bonnar
Soszynski
Bonnar
Soszynski
Soszynski
Soszynski 57%
 
George Sotiropoulos vs.
Kurt Pellegrino
Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino
Sotiropoulos
Sotiropoulos
Sotiropoulos
Sotiropoulos
Sotiropoulos
Sotiropoulos 86%
 
Ricardo Romero vs.
Seth Petruzelli
Romero
Romero
Romero
Romero
Petruzelli
Petruzelli
Petruzelli
Romero 57%
 
Brendan Schaub vs.
Chris Tuchscherer
Tuchscherer
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub
Schaub 86%
 
Goran Reljic vs.
Kendall Grove
Reljic
Reljic
Reljic
Grove
Grove
Reljic
Reljic
Reljic 71%
 
Daniel Roberts vs.
Forrest Petz
Petz
Roberts
Roberts
Petz
Petz
Roberts
Roberts
Roberts 57%
 
Karlos Vemola vs.
Jon Madsen
Madsen
Vemola
Vemola
Vemola
Vemola
Vemola
Vemola
Vemola 86%
 
Gerald Harris vs.
David Branch
Harris
Harris
Harris
Branch
Harris
Harris
Harris
Harris 86%
 
Tiebreak
Lesnar/TKO/2
Carwin/TKO/1
Lesnar/TKO/3
Carwin/KO/1
Carwin/KO/1
Carwin/TKO/1
Carwin/TKO/2
 
Total
6/11 (55%)
6/11 (55%)

8/11 (73%)

4/11 (36%)
7/11 64%)
5/11 (45%)
6/11 (55%)
 

MMAAdNet

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract.  The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a […]

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale takes place this Saturday, June 19 in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The new main draw for the capstone event of The Ultimate Fighter 11 reality show will be finalists Court McGee and Kris McCray vying for a UFC contract.  The old main event, now assumed the co-main event will be a Light Heavyweight scrap between Matt Hamill and Keith Jardine.  Along with these four fighters, TUF 11 participants Jamie Yager, Rich Attonito, Kyle Noke and several others will join the likes of veterans Chris Leben, Aaron Simpson and Spencer Fisher to round out the card.

To be perfectly honest, I don’t see much betting value in this card.  There are so many variables with TUF fights that I generally either bet very small amounts or stay away completely.  My friend Mike Hammersmith is passing on this card completely, and I can’t really blame him.  I personally only feel good about one bet on this card, which I will go into later.  For now, check out MMAMoneyLine’s The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks and the current odds for research purposes.

Mark Holst – MMAMoneyLine (+200 on BetUS)

The guys over at CagePotato did a pretty solid writeup on UFC newcomer Mark Holst. Holst is currently 8-1 with equal knockout and submission victories.  His latest win was a locked up kimura against former UFC fighter Corey Hill in March.

When you try out for The Ultimate Fighter and instead of making the show you skip right to a UFC card, it’s impressive (replacement or not).  The UFC sees something in the Canadian…it’s not exactly like they’re looking for a can to feed to the surging John Gunderson.  Holst is a consummate well rounded mixed martial artist with serious Muay Thai and grappling credentials, not to mention training logged under some of MMA’s best coaches.

Betting on Holst is a bit of a risk seeing as its his first UFC fight, but I’ve not been exactly blown away by Gunderson.  Don’t get me wrong, he certainly has a chance to use his pace and wrestling to put Holst on his back.  However, I believe the John Gunderson that was controlled by Rafaello Oliveira gets eaten up by Holst.  Holst has the tools to finish this fight anywhere, but I think he will walk away with a decisive decision.  At the current price Holst is going for, I strongly recommend at least a flier on the UFC newcomer outclassing the vet.

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Picks:

McGee/SUB/2

Jardine/SD

Simpson/UD

Fisher/TKO/2

Yager/KO/1

Holst/UD

Browne/KO/2

Tavares/UD

Bryant/SD

Hammortree/KO/1

 

MMAMoneyLine Official Wagers (1 unit = 2% of bankroll):

Jardine – 1 u. at +135 on Sportsbook

Holst – 1 u. at +300 on Bodog

Bryant – .25 u. at +160 on Sportsbook

Hammortree – .25 u. at+110 on Sportsbook

 

**Disclaimer – These are the odds I made the bets at, not necessarily the odds at the time of this posting. Although I made these bets, I don’t necessarily recommend them.  I’m putting a bit of a flier on both Bryant and Hammortree because of injuries sustained by Noke and Camozzi respectively; I believe the odds to be off, but still too risky to recommend.**

The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Pros’ Picks

  MMABettingBlog WatchKalibRun MMAConvert MiddleEasy MMAAdNet MMAValor MMAMafia Total   Matt Hamill vs. Keith Jardine Hamill Hamill Jardine Hamill Jardine Jardine Hamill Hamill 57%   Aaron Simpson vs. Chris Leben Leben Simpson Simpson Simpson Leben Simpson Simpson Simpson 71%   Court McGee vs. Kris McCray McGee McCray McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee McGee 86%   […]

 
Total
 
Matt Hamill vs.
Keith Jardine
Hamill
Hamill
Jardine
Hamill
Jardine
Jardine
Hamill
Hamill 57%
 
Aaron Simpson vs.
Chris Leben
Leben
Simpson
Simpson
Simpson
Leben
Simpson
Simpson
Simpson 71%
 
Court McGee vs.
Kris McCray
McGee
McCray
McGee
McGee
McGee
McGee
McGee
McGee 86%
 
Spencer Fisher vs.
Dennis Siver
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher
Fisher 100%
 
Rich Attonito vs.
Jamie Yager
Attonito
Attonito
Yager
Attonito
Attonito
Attonito
Attonito 83%
 
John Gunderson vs.
Mark Holst
Gunderson
Gunderson
Gunderson
Gunderson
Gunderson
Gunderson 100%
 
James McSweeney vs.
Travis Browne
McSweeney
McSweeney
McSweeney
McSweeney
Browne
McSweeney 80%
 
Seth Baczynski vs.
Brad Tavares
Tavares
Tavares
Baczynski
Tavares
Tavares
Tavares 80%
 
Josh Bryant vs.
Kyle Noke
Noke
Noke
Bryant
Noke
Noke
Noke 80%
 
Chris Camozzi vs.
James Hammortree
Hammortree
Hammortree
Camozzi
Camozzi
Hammortree
Hammortree 60%
 
Tiebreak
McGee/UD
McCray/UD
McGee/UD
McGee/UD
McGee/KO/2
McGee/SUB/3
McGee/UD
 
Total
 

Sports Betting at the Sportsbook

MMAMoneyLine’s Updated 2010 “Pros’ Picks” Contest Standings Through June

If March was an intense month for MMA fans, the logjam of mixed martial arts happening in mid-June is going to be as, if not more exciting.  Coming fresh off the heels of UFC 115 and Strikeforce – Los Angeles, we have Bellator 22, The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale, WEC 49, Bellator 23 and Strikeforce […]

If March was an intense month for MMA fans, the logjam of mixed martial arts happening in mid-June is going to be as, if not more exciting.  Coming fresh off the heels of UFC 115 and Strikeforce – Los Angeles, we have Bellator 22, The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale, WEC 49, Bellator 23 and Strikeforce – Fedor VS Werdum right around the corner.  It will certainly be an exciting time for MMA fans, and hopefully lucrative times for my fellow sportsbettors.

If you’ve been keeping up with MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks”, you know about the competition going on between myself and a few of my peers in the online MMA world.  As to be expected from a knowledgeable field of writers and bloggers, the race is getting very close toward the midpoint of the contest.  As it stands, Zak at WatchKalibRun is the most accurate at 63%.  Behind him are several competitors in the 61% accuracy range.

I always recommend that MMA bettors check out MMAMoneyLine’s “Pros’ Picks” before a fight. All of the “Pros’ Picks” participants are very knowledgeable about MMA. Using “Pros’ Picks” as a resource can absolutely improve your bankroll.

 
 
Strikeforce – Los Angeles
2-2
1-3
1-3
4-0
2-2
3-1
1-3
2-2
 
UFC 115
5-6
8-3
7-4
4-7
3-8
2-9
6-5
8-3
 
UFC 114
6-5
7-4
5-6
9-2
6-5
6-5
6-5
7-4
 
Strikeforce – Heavy Artillery
3-3
4-2
4-2
4-2
3-3
5-1
3-3
3-3
 
UFC 113
6-5
5-5
5-6
3-8
4-7
4-7
6-5
7-4
 
WEC 48
5-6
5-6
8-3
6-5
7-4
7-4
6-5
8-3
 
Strikeforce – Nashville
2-2
2-2
3-1
4-0
2-2
2-2
2-2
2-2
 
UFC 112
4-6
6-4
6-4
5-5
6-4
5-5
4-6
7-3
 
UFC Fight Night 21
9-2
7-4
6-5
8-3
5-6
9-2
7-4
6-5
 
UFC 111
9-1
7-3
7-3
7-3
7-3
9-1
8-2
8-2
 
UFC On Versus 1
8-3
9-2
7-4
9-2
8-3
8-3
8-3
8-3
 
WEC 47
5-5
5-5
5-5
5-5
5-5
6-4
7-3
5-5
 
UFC 110
7-2
6-3
5-4
6-3
3-6
6-3
4-5
4-4
 
UFC 109
6-5
6-5
7-4
7-4
7-4
7-4
8-3
7-4
 
Strikeforce – Miami
4-2
5-1
4-2
3-3
5-1
4-2
4-2
3-3
 
UFC Fight Night 20
8-2
8-2
9-1
7-3
4-6
8-2
7-3
7-3
 
WEC 46
6-4
5-5
5-4
7-3
9-1
6-4
7-3
8-2
 
UFC 108
8-2
7-3
4-6
6-4
5-5
7-3
7-3
 
Total
95-61 (61%)
104-61 (63%)
101-64 (61%)
102-64 (61%)
92-74 (55%)
102-64 (61%)
101-65 (61%)
107-58 (65%)
 

Strikeforce – Los Angeles Pros’ Picks

 

MMABettingBlog

WatchKalibRun

MMAConvert

MiddleEasy

MMAAdNet

MMAValor

MMAMafia

Total

 

Robbie Lawler vs.
Renato Sobral

Sobral

Lawler

Lawler

Sobral

Sobral

Sobral

Lawler

Sobral 57%

 

Marius Zaromskis vs.
Evangelista Santos

Zaromskis

Zaromskis

Zaromskis

Santos

Zaromskis

Zaromskis

Zaromskis

Zaromskis 86%

 

Tim Kennedy vs.
Trevor Prangley

Prangley

Prangley

Prangley

Kennedy

Kennedy

Kennedy

Kennedy

Kennedy […]

 
Total
 
Robbie Lawler vs.
Renato Sobral
Sobral
Lawler
Lawler
Sobral
Sobral
Sobral
Lawler
Sobral 57%
 
Marius Zaromskis vs.
Evangelista Santos
Zaromskis
Zaromskis
Zaromskis
Santos
Zaromskis
Zaromskis
Zaromskis
Zaromskis 86%
 
Tim Kennedy vs.
Trevor Prangley
Prangley
Prangley
Prangley
Kennedy
Kennedy
Kennedy
Kennedy
Kennedy 57%
 
KJ Noons vs.
Conor Heun
Noons
Noons
Noons
Noons
Heun
Noons
Heun
Noons 86%
 
Tiebreak
Sobral/SUB
Lawler/TKO/2
Lawler/TKO/2
Sobral/SUB/2
Sobral/SUB/2
Sobral/SUB/2
Lawler/TKO/1
 
Total
2/4 (50%)
1/4 (25%)
1/4 (25%)
4/4 (100%)
2/4 (50%)
3/4 (75%)
1/4 (25%)
 

MiddleEasy