Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165) Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although.
Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165)
Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although Faber is considered the underdog in the fight, I say Faber by decision or Barao by submission choke in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Faber
Emily: The oddsmakers are right on in choosing Renan Barao as the favorite. Not only will he come out with the victory, but he is the highest value bet. We will no doubt be seeing him fight for the bantamweight title as soon as the champ recovers. Winner: Pagado
John: This is a tough one. Renan Barao is the clear favorite mainly due to his sick ass 29 fight win streak, and don’t get me wrong he is a bad dude, but people need to remember that we’re dealing with the alpha male of team Alpha Male—so show some respect b*tches!! Both of these guys are finishers, but I think they’ll more than likely cancel each other out in that regard. It will all come down to the takedown battle. If the “California Kid” can score enough takedowns to keep Barao from really getting going on the standup, I think he is good enough to avoid his opponent’s rather spectacular submission game for the decision victory. If he can’t, then Barao will pick him apart the whole time while periodically stuffing takedowns for a unanimous nod from the judges. I give a slight edge to Barao for his standup, but I definitely don’t think the betting line is where it should be for this fight. Urijah Faber is a killer, period! He fought Mike Brown for five with two f*cked up hands and went five with Aldo at 145lbs…that said I still have Barao coming up with the decision. Winner: Pagado
Ryan: The day Barao beat Brad Pickett, I knew he would be champion. I think Faber is of the elite, but Barao is a 135 pound Jose Aldo, and Aldo gave Faber a beating. Barao by decision. Winner: Pagado
Alan: Faber is a fan favorite and it’s always hard to pick against him but Pagado is superior in almost every area. He’ll win this fight relatively easily probably taking at least four rounds on the way to a decision. If the line was a little more lopsided, I might be inclined to take a flyer on Faber but +165 isn’t enough to make it worth it. Winner: Pagado
MMAFIX Staff Pick: Pagado (4-1)
Hector Lombard (-390) vs. Tim Boetsch (+320)
John: Replacing the injured Brian Stann, Tim Boetsch is going to have his hands full with Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard. On an impressive 24 fight win streak of his own, Lombard has the power to put the “Barbarian” away, but as Boetsch showed in his last bout against former title challenger Yushin
Okami, you can beat the sh*t out of him the whole fight, and he can still knock you out in brutal fashion. Lombard, a former Olympian, has the resume to beat Boetsch on paper. The question here is whether or not Lombard f*cks people up the way he does because he has been fighting lower level competition or because he really is just that good. Either way we’ll find out Saturday.
Even though I’m rooting for Boetsch, I have to go with Lombard by first round KO or second round TKO—bro, he called out “the Warmaster,” heavyweight Josh Barnett….that’s right heavyweight.
For those of you who don’t understand, this means two things:
1. Hector Lombard has huge balls
2. Hector Lombard is just about the rawest motherf***er out there….sometimes you just have to believe in the crazy person.
Winner: Lombard
Ryan: I think that people make Lombard out to be better than he really is, and he hasn’t quite proved himself to be in the top 10 of the division yet. With that However, Tim boetsch is only in the top 10 from a crazy come from behind KO of Yushin Okami. With that being said, I agree with Lombard being the favorite, but not sure if the it’s too much in the favor of Lombard or not. Lombard knows if he is impressive in this fight he could get a title shot, so look for Lombard to end this fight quite. Lombard by TKO. Winner: Lombard
Alan: Like everyone else, I’m picking Lombard to win. But I love the line on Boetsch. Lombard hasn’t faced anyone near this caliber and this is his first UFC appearance. If I’m betting this fight, I’m going with Boetsch and hoping for the upset. He’s an underdog but not a +320 underdog. This is a perfect low risk high reward type of betting situation. Winner: Lombard
Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.
Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado
This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.
Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.
Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.
The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.
Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch
In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.
Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.
Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.
The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.
Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy In the headlining fight of the night, Luke Rockhold defended his middleweight title with a unanimous 49-46 decision victory over challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold controlled the majority of the fight.
Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy
In the headlining fight of the night, Luke Rockhold defended his middleweight title with a unanimous 49-46 decision victory over challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold controlled the majority of the fight and did enough to win even if his performance wasn’t overwhelming. Kennedy was game but simply didn’t have the skills to threaten Rockhold. He struggled with the size and reach disadvantage throughout the fight and was never able to impose his gameplan.
The first round was one that could have been scored for Kennedy on the strength of one of his few takedowns. He managed to stay on top of Rockhold and maintain control but was unable to do any significant damage. Rockhold controlled most of the rest of the round pushing Kennedy against the cage and landing a few right hands. The second round saw Rockhold begin to take control of the fight. He stuffed Kennedy’s takedowns and scored one of his own. He took Kennedy’s back briefly and worked for a choke but never got close to finishing. Again, he landed several right hands and generally controlled the pace of the fight. The third round was Kennedy’s best as he gained his most dominant position by climbing to Rockhold’s back after a takedown. Again, this round could have been scored for Kennedy and was probably the one the judges gave him. The fourth round saw the most significant moment of the fight with Rockhold landing another right hand but this time landing clean enough to drop Kennedy. He attacked for the finish but Kennedy survived. The fifth round saw little action, which is a bit disappointing considering that an optimistic view could have had the fight at two rounds each. But neither fighter seemed to feel a sense of urgency and Rockhold deserved the round based mostly on cage control.
Neither fighter was overly impressive in the fight but Rockhold earned the decision and the right to retain his belt. As is the case in most divisions, Strikeforce doesn’t have much to offer in terms of competition at middleweight so we’ll have to wait and see who’s next for Rockhold. Kennedy has established himself as a quality fighter but has now lost twice in title fights and seems unlikely to ever hold the belt. A match with Lorenz Larkin would seem to make sense after his victory over Robbie Lawler earlier in the night.
Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley
Nate Marquardt made the most of his first fight in Strikeforce scoring an impressive knockout over Tyron Woodley. The fight also marked his first appearance at 170 lbs and the weight cut didn’t seem to impact his performance at all. At this weight, he’s going to be tough to deal with and shouldn’t have much competition in Strikeforce. Hopefully, he can put together one or two more performances like this and get a second chance in the UFC.
The fight started with Marquardt and Woodley both landing big right hands. Woodley’s landed on the temple and staggered Marquardt. But Marquardt was able to defend, recover and take over the fight from there. The key going in to this fight was whether or not Woodley would be able to take Marquardt down and we found out quickly that he was not able to do so. Marquardt stuffed every takedown attempt easily and the only way Woodley was ever able to get the fight to the mat was by scoring knockdowns with his punches. But Marquardt was the one landing the majority of the strikes and continuously battered Woodley with right hands. By the end of the first round, Woodley was barely able to stand and seemed to not be fully aware of where he was when the round ended. Woodley came out tentative and still hurt in the second round. Marquardt took advantage and continued to batter him with strikes. Woodley seemed to wilt as the round continued and Marquardt was in full control of the fight by the end of the round. But Woodley wasn’t done yet and showed his heart by exploding on Marquardt to open the third round. He dropped Marquardt with a flurry of punches and tried to finish but couldn’t land anything clean enough to end the fight. Marquardt recovered and was back in control of the fight by the end of the round. He then came out in the fourth wasting no time and looking to end the fight. He landed several big combinations before eventually backing Woodley against the cage and landing an impressive elbow and punch combination to score the knockout. Woodley was never going to win the fight unless he could consistently earn top position and once Marquardt established the pattern of the fight as a striking match, the outcome was inevitable.
Marquardt is clearly the best welterweight in Strikeforce and should hold the belt for as long as he wants. No one currently in the division is a threat to him. Realistically, he should be in the UFC but based on all the drama surrounding his release, who knows if that will ever happen. For Woodley, this will either be the fight that establishes his ceiling or the fight that motivates him to work harder than he ever has before. If his gutsy performance to start the third round is any indication, he will come back stronger from this loss. He has the wrestling base and athleticism to be a title contender but he simply does not have the experience to compete with someone like Marquardt. As his striking becomes more fluid and he can mix it with his wrestling, he still has the potential to become a championship caliber mixed martial artist.
Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine
The second fight of the night was a bit of a head scratcher. Roger Gracie completely dominated the first two rounds. But he was only able to dominate because Jardine showed an egregious lack of discipline. To start each of the first two rounds, Jardine rushed Gracie putting himself off balance and allowing Gracie to score easy takedowns. From there, Gracie completely dominated the ground game as would be expected. He repeatedly made his way into dominant positions and used them to slice Jardine’s face with elbows. He also spent a significant amount of time in the second round on Jardine’s back and was probably only prevented from locking up a rear naked choke because of all the blood pouring out of Jardine’s head making it difficult to hold on to any submissions. The fight was clearly over after the second round unless Jardine could pull off a finish. In the third round, Jardine executed the exact gameplan he should have used in the first two rounds. Instead of rushing in recklessly, he stayed on the outside and despite all the punishment he had already taken, was able to win the round. Two of the judges gave that round to Gracie but I can only assume their scoring was basically a carry over from the first two rounds. Had Jardine employed that strategy for all three rounds, he probably would have won the fight because Gracie showed nothing to indicate that he could have scored a takedown without Jardine so anxiously throwing himself off balance. Regardless, Gracie earns the victory and will likely get a tougher fight in his next appearance. Unfortunately for those who want so desperately to see a Gracie climb the MMA ranks again, he showed little improvement in his wrestling and striking. His shots lacked explosion. His chin was high and waiting to be hit. Better and smarter fighters than Jardine will exploit those weaknesses. Jardine continues to slide down the rankings and has now lost both of his fights at 185 lbs. Strikeforce’s relatively weak middleweight roster will likely ensure that he gets more fights but at this point, he can no longer be considered a serious threat.
Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin
In the opening fight of the main card, Lorenz Larkin outstruck Robbie Lawler on his way to a decision victory. The fight went exactly the way most people thought it would. Both fighters came to the cage looking to strike. Lawler landed a solid right hand to Larkin’s temple early in the opening round but was not able to take advantage and finish the fight. After than, Larkin controlled the fight and Lawler seemed to fade as the fight continued. Larkin showed the more diverse striking game as expected and Lawler was never able to land the type of power shot that could have earned him the victory. Larkin showed no ill effects from his first cut to 185 lbs. However, he still needs to develop the rest of his game if he hopes to be a serious contender. Lawler remains essentially a gatekeeper in the middleweight decision and should continue to provide interesting matchups for Strikeforce because of his willingness to stand.
Luke Rockhold (-290) vs. Tim Kennedy (+245) Ryan: Both fighters are pretty well rounded, but I give Rockhold an edge in almost every skill. Rockhold by decision. Winner: Rockhold Alan: This fight sets up perfectly.
Luke Rockhold (-290) vs. Tim Kennedy (+245)
Ryan: Both fighters are pretty well rounded, but I give Rockhold an edge in almost every skill. Rockhold by decision. Winner: Rockhold
Alan: This fight sets up perfectly for Rockhold. He should be able to defend Kennedy’s takedowns and strike his way to victory. Winner: Rockhold
Nate Marquardt (-115) vs. Tyron Woodley (-105)
Ryan: Woodley’s wrestling won’t be enough to control Marquardt. Just too strong and too skilled. Marquardt by KO. Winner: Marqaurdt
Alan: I’m torn on this fight. We’ll know as soon as Woodley shoots the first time how this fight will play out. I’m going with Woodley’s wrestling ability and the weight cut to welterweight breaking Marquardt down over five rounds. But if Marquardt can defend the takedown, he should cruise to victory. Winner: Woodley
Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin
Ryan: Lawler could end the fight at any time with one punch, but he hasn’t been very consistent. Larkin is the more diverse striker and I think that will be the difference in this fight. Larkin by decision. Winner: Larkin
Alan: This fight is almost impossible to predict, which I’m guessing is why there’s no line at any of the major sites. Larkin is the better striker but Lawler has the power. I’m going to guess that Larkin won’t be able to stand for fifteen minutes without getting dropped but it could just as easily of the other way. Winner: Lawler
Roger Gracie (-260) vs. Keith Jardine (+180)
Ryan: I’m going with Gracie based on the fact that Travor Prangley was able to work Jardine over, while Gracie tapped him out quick. Gracie by submission. Winner: Gracie
Alan: This is another fight that could go either way. Gracie is a significant favorite but I’m going with the underdog. I’m betting on Jardine finding Gracie’s somewhat glassy chin before Gracie can drag him down to the mat. But if Gracie does get the fight to the ground, this one will be over instantly. Winner: Jardine
Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only.
Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Kennedy
Headlining the Strikeforce card on Saturday night is a middleweight title fight between champion Luke Rockhold and challenger Tim Kennedy. Rockhold has earned eight straight victories after suffering his only loss in his second career fight. His last two victories have been his most impressive coming against Ronaldo Souza and Keith Jardine. Kennedy has put together back to back victories over Melvin Manhoef and Robbie Lawler after losing a championship fight against Souza.
Rockhold comes in with momentum after dominating Jardine and finishing him via TKO in the first round. But his victory before that against Souza to win the belt was even more impressive. Souza is one of the better fighters in the middleweight division and Rockhold managed to keep the fight mostly on the feet and battered him from there. He has shown an increasingly diversified striking game combined with a defensive wrestling and scrambling ability that allow him to take advantage of his strengths in the standup. He will look to do just that against Kennedy who prefers to take fighters down and work for submission. Kennedy is a good striker but Rockhold should have the advantage and as long as he can keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. Kennedy will be tough to finish but if he does it, that would be another impressive statement. More likely is a unanimous decision after five rounds of high level striking.
Kennedy’s biggest asset to this point in his career has been his grappling. He has found the most success by taking his opponents down and working for submissions. He has also shown some excellent ground and pound. If he wants to use those skills, he has a tough task as Rockhold has shown excellent takedown defense and Kennedy isn’t a great wrestler. He will need to mix in his takedowns with his striking and time his shots as counters to Rockhold’s striking to have the best chance of success. He will also need to work hard to keep Rockhold down as he has shown an excellent ability to get back to his feet once on he hits the ground. If Kennedy can get Rockhold down and keep him there, he can win this fight. But that will be difficult to do and he will need to keep Rockhold guessing and off balance in order to do it.
Rockhold is the big favorite at -310 with Kennedy at +255. This fight sets up in Rockhold’s favor as he should be able to defends against Kennedy’s takedowns and keep the fight standing. If that happens, Rockhold should have the advantage and strike his way to a victory. But if Kennedy can somehow find a way to get the fight to the mat and control Rockhold , he could pull of the upset.
Nate Marquardt vs. Tyron Woodley
The first title fight of the night will feature former UFC contender Nate Marquardt and undefeated prospect Tyron Woodley competing for the vacant Strikeforce welterweight belt. Marquardt comes to Strikeforce after alternating wins and losses in his last five UFC appearances. He earned a decision victory over Dan Miller at UFC 128 in his last fight after losing to Yushin Okami in a title contender elimination fight. Woodley has been impressive in his undefeated Strikeforce run earning victories over Jordan Mein and Paul Daley in his last two fights bringing his record to ten wins and no losses.
Marquardt has long been one of the better fighters in the middleweight division but has been unable to climb to the top of division. Because of that, he has decided to not only drop to welterweight but has also made the jump from the UFC to Strikeforce where he can fight for a title immediately. Marquardt basically had no choice but to be a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond after the UFC released him. He has lost a bit of credibility in the past year with his testosterone replacement therapy saga but this fight is an opportunity to get his career back on the right track. He brings a well-rounded skill set to the cage with the ability to finish from any position. Against an excellent wrestler like Woodley, expect him to try to keep the fight standing. The key to this fight will be his defensive wrestling. If he can fend off Woodley’s takedowns, he should have the advantage in the striking game. But if he finds himself on his back, he’ll be in trouble. The other key will be how his body handles the weight cut. If this fight goes five rounds, his body will be tested. Any time a fighter makes a change in weight class the first fight is always a bit of a challenge and five rounds will only make the challenge even more difficult.
Woodley’s win streak to start his career is now at ten fights and he will look to make it eleven by earning the first title of his MMA career. He is not as well-rounded as his opponent and will rely almost entirely on his wrestling to earn the victory. He needs to be able to get Marquardt down and control him on the ground. At this point in his career, he doesn’t have the striking to compete on the feet. He has the power to land a haymaker but not the technique to consistently outstrike Marquardt. Because of that, he needs to focus on getting the fight to the ground and grinding his way to victory. The more he can force Marquardt to wrestle the better his chances of wearing him out and testing the weight cut become. His chances also improve as the fight goes longer for the same reasons. If Woodley wants to win, he has to make the fight slow and ugly. And luckily for him, that’s exactly his style.
Marquardt is the slight favorite in this fight at -130 with Woodley coming in at +110. That seems about right as Marquardt has a significant advantage in experience and Woodley has never faced anyone of his caliber before. If Marquardt’s defensive wrestling is good enough to keep the fight standing, he should be able to earn the victory. But if Woodley can be successful with his takedowns and maintain top position, he’ll grind his way to a decision.
Robbie Lawler vs. Lorenz Larkin
Strikeforce is showing a little love to the fans by giving us a guaranteed slugfest and more than likely a KO or TKO finish with a middleweight fight between Lorenz Larkin and Robbie Lawler. Both fighters prefer to stand and both have the power to finish. Larkin is the more technical fighter and uses a more well-rounded striking attack incorporating a variety of kicks into his game. Lawler prefers to box and mix in some powerful knees when the opportunity arises. However, Lawler may have the slight advantage in power and explosiveness.
The analysis for this fight is pretty straightforward. These guys are going to stand and bang and eventually one of them is probably going to fall. None of the major sites have a line on this fight but if they did, it would have to be close. Either fighter is capable of landing the strike that ends the fight at any moment. I could stretch this out longer to try to sound smarter but this fight is what is so enjoy it for as long as it lasts. I know I will.
Roger Gracie vs. Keith Jardine
To open a big night for Strikeforce that features two title fights, Roger Gracie will face Keith Jardine in the light heavyweight division. Gracie carries the banner for the first family of MMA into this fight against Jardine who carries the banner for ugly fighting styles. These two fighters are polar opposites in their approaches with Gracie coming from a storied Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background and employing a traditional style that led him to great success on the grappling circuit while Jardine seems to come into every fight looking to make it an ugly brawl to create openings for his powerful punches.
Gracie’s striking has improved in recent fights but he is still a grappler first. He will be looking to get the fight to the mat as quickly as possible and avoid engaging Jardine on the feet. The question will be whether or not he has the wrestling to succeed in taking down Jardine. If he can, the fight will likely be over quickly after that. Jardine will be looking to ugly up the fight as much as possible and use his unorthodox striking to keep Gracie off balance. While Gracie has shown a willingness to strike, he still doesn’t seem to respond well to getting hit and if Jardine can land one of his looping punches, he could get an opportunity to finish his opponent. But he needs to be careful because if he stuns Gracie and follows him to the ground to try for a finish, he could find himself in a submission.
The bookmakers have Gracie as a solid favorite at -260 with Jardine at +180. I’m not sure why Gracie is such a big favorite given that the fight will start on the feet and Jardine has a significant advantage in that area. I’m also not convinced that Gracie will be able to drag Jardine to the mat before eating a few shots. Both fighters have a clear path to victory here and the winner will be determined by who executes his gameplan more efficiently. If Gracie gets the fight to the ground, he should be able to wrap it up quickly. But if Jardine can keep the fight standing, he has the power to finish Gracie.
Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz..
Mark Munoz vs. Chris Weidman
I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong on fight pick than I was on this one. Chris Weidman is absolutely the real deal and he destroyed Mark Munoz. I thought the wrestling would be even. Weidman took him down immediately and easily to start both rounds. I thought Munoz would have a striking advantage. He never landed a significant strike and Weidman scored one of the most impressive knockouts in UFC history. I was a little hesitant to jump on the hype train but I’m on board now.
Weidman dominated the first round completely after scoring the opening takedown. He controlled position and nearly submitted Munoz with a guillotine from the mount position twice. Every time Munoz tried to stand or reverse position, Weidman was ahead of him and brought him back under control. Munoz didn’t have a single offensive moment in the round and had to resort to giving up his back to get to his feet at the very end of the round. Weidman opened the second round the same as the first and continued the script. Munoz seemed to earn his first minor victory of the fight when he found a way to get the fight back to a standing position. Instead, Weidman countered Munoz’ first combination with a destructive short counter elbow that should have stopped the fight. For some reason, Josh Rosenthal allowed the fight to continue and Weidman proceeded to punch Munoz in and out of consciousness while Rosenthal took an inexplicably long time to intervene. Regardless, the finish was undeniably great and Weidman is officially the biggest threat to Anderson Silva in the middleweight division.
Weidman’s victory may have earned him the next title shot and one more similarly dominating performance would have to guarantee him that title shot. I don’t know if he has what it takes to end the champions’s streak of domination but his skill set is scarier than any other contender in the division. For Mark Munoz, this loss is a big blow and he will have to win a couple fights in a row if he wants to get back into the title picture. But the story coming out of this fight is obviously the arrival of Chris Weidman. The impressiveness of this victory cannot be overstated.
James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
In a surprise to everyone, the light heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran went to a decision. Less surprising was Te Huna having his arm raised at the end. The first round went exactly according to script as the two big bangers came out swinging. Both landed some heavy shots but Te Huna consistently got the better of the exchanges and scored the bigger punches. He hurt Beltran badly in the final minute of round one and pounced for the finish. Beltran’s brick chin and the bell signaling the end of the round were the only thing that saved him from a TKO. Te Huna seemed to burn out his arms trying to finish Beltran and didn’t have the explosiveness in his punches to score the knockout later in the fight. He continued to dominate in the second round but seemed to tire significantly by the third round allowing Beltran back into the fight.
Te Huna continues to climb in the light heavyweight division but will need to further diversify his game with wrestling and grappling if he wants to succeed against more well-rounded fighters. This fight going three rounds may prove to be a blessing for him as he now knows what it feels like to go fifteen minutes in the UFC and should be motivated to improve his conditioning. For Beltran, this outcome doesn’t change his status. He is never going to be a top tier fighter but his relentlessness and superhuman chin guarantee an exciting fight every time he steps in the cage with another striker. When Joe Silva needs a slugfest to add some entertainment to a card, he knows who to call.
Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
Aaron Simpson looked impressive in his debut at welterweight doing everything but finishing Kenny Robertson on his way to a unanimous decision. Simpson realized early in the first round that he had the wrestling advantage and used that to control his opponent throughout the fight. He didn’t threaten to finish the fight until the very end of the third round but completely controlled Robertson for all fifteen minutes. He repeatedly took his opponent down and maintained top position landing effective ground and pound along the way. His cardio looked solid and he didn’t seem to tire as the fight progressed. At thirty seven years old, it might be too late for him to make a serious run at 170 lbs but he should provide some interesting fights in the division. Robertson might be on his way back out of the UFC after his second consecutive loss. He was brought in as a late replacement for Jon Fitch and didn’t do anything to earn another opportunity.
Francis Carmont vs. Karlos Vemola
The third fight of the night marked the arrival of Francis Carmont as a factor in the middleweight division. Carmont has been competing in MMA since 2004 but is just now showing signs of fulfilling his potential. He has always been a huge middleweight and looked significantly larger than Vemola who is one of the bigger fighters at 185 lbs. He looked good in the first round taking advantage of Vemola’s guillotine attempts to gain top position. He locked on to an Americana and was close to finishing but Vemola managed to survive. He started the second round by landing a big front kick. After a scramble, Carmont brought Vemola to the mat in the crucifix position and transitioned quickly into a rear naked choke to earn the finish. Carmont is likely to face a significant step up in competition as he is already thirty years old. If he is ever going to make a serious run in the UFC, this is the moment in his career to make it happen. He has always had the requisite athleticism but now he seems to be putting together the kind of well-rounded game that could make him a legitimate contender. Vemola took a step in the opposite direction and will need to improve if he wants to be a threat in the UFC. He is explosive but showed some questionable decision making and didn’t seem to be executing any sort of gameplan. It takes more than athleticism to compete in the UFC and he needs to improve in his approach if he hopes to take advantage of his raw ability.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
What looked to be a mismatch on paper proved also to be a mismatch in the octagon. Lee came out looking to finish the fight with every strike he threw but Dillashaw evaded easily and landed a few strikes of his own. He then landed a takedown off of a Vaughan kick and moved to top position. Lee gave his back to stand up and Dillashaw took advantage climbing on and sinking in both hooks. From there, he quickly slipped his arm under Lee’s neck and finished the fight with a rear naked choke. For Dillashaw, this was exactly the performance he needed and his stock is rising quickly at bantamweight. Training at Team Alpha Male ensures that he will continue to improve rapidly so look for him to become a factor at 135 lbs. A loss like this and a record of 12-8 likely puts Lee on the brink of leaving the UFC. His upset of Norifumi Yamamoto in his UFC debut might earn him one more chance in the octagon but I can’t see him lasting beyond that.
Anthony Njokuani vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
In the first fight of the night, Rafael Dos Anjos dominated Anthony Njokuani on his way to a unanimous decision. Dos Anjos dropped Njokuani with a left to establish control early in the first round and was never seriously threatened at any point in the fight. After the knockdown, he scored several takedowns in succession showing greatly improved wrestling. He matched that wrestling improvement with an improvement in striking proving to be at least the equal of Njokuani who is one of the best strikers in the division. After the first round, Njokuani told his corner that he had broken his right hand. Assessing the impact of an injury mid-fight is difficult but even with a full arsenal of weapons, Njokuani likely would not have been able to defeat Dos Anjos. The second and third rounds followed the same script as the first with Dos Anjos holding his own on the feet and dominating the wrestling and grappling exchanges. If Dos Anjos continues to improve the way he has in his past few fights, he will be a serious threat in the lightweight division. He already has some of the best jiu-jitsu at 155 lbs and the addition of a serious wrestling and striking game makes him a contender. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Njokuani seems to be stuck. His striking is impressive but he just doesn’t have the wrestling or grappling to compete at a high level. He can still put on exciting fights when matched up with strikers but doesn’t seem to be a serious threat in the absurdly deep UFC lightweight division.
