Author: alanwells

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of.

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Junior Dos Santos vs. Frank Mir

On Saturday night, the UFC’s highly anticipated all-heavyweight card arrives headlined by a title fight between champion Junior Dos Santos and challenger Frank Mir. With the unsurprising suspension of Alistair Overeem for PED use causing major upheaval to the card, Frank Mir steps in to gain another shot at being a UFC champion. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be facing someone who presents a skill set he is ill-equipped to handle.

Junior Dos Santos has been plowing through the UFC’s heavyweight division since his arrival in 2009 reeling off nine straight victories with seven of those victories being finished by KO or TKO and six of those seven finishes coming in the first round. Only the chins of Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were able to withstand the dynamite in Dos Santos’ hands and he’ll be looking to test Mir’s chin as early as possible. Dos Santos’ strategy isn’t complicated and it doesn’t take an expert to explain it. He has as much power as anyone in the division combined with excellent quickness and agility that allows him to explode into fight finishing combinations. He throws mainly two or three punch combinations and only needs to make contact with one of those punches to earn a victory. His boxing isn’t the most technical in MMA but is incredibly effective and he will be relying on it to defend his championship at UFC 146.

Frank Mir has four wins and two losses in his last six fights with the losses being knockouts suffered at the hands Shane Carwin and Brock Lesnar. In his last fight, he was knocked down by Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera before coming back to finish with one of the most impressive submissions ever in the heavyweight division. That history does not suggest success against a fighter like Dos Santos. He is going to have to find a way to avoid his opponent’s strikes and get the fight to the ground. That will be tough to do because Dos Santos will have the quickness advantage and has shown solid takedown defense in his fights thus far. Mir’s best chance of getting this fight to the ground might be to play possum if Dos Santos lands a glancing blow and try to get the champion to follow him to the ground in an attempt to finish. If Mir can somehow get the fight to the mat, he clearly has the skills to finish and Dos Santos would be wise to avoid that scenario at all costs. Even if he scores a knockdown, Dos Santos should stay on his feet and wait for Mir to get back up before engaging again. Even a stunned Frank Mir has the skills to submit Dos Santos if he decides to play the ground game.

Junior Dos Santos comes into this fight as a huge favorite at -550 with Mir the underdog at +425. That should tell you everything you need to know about this fight. Anything other than a first round knockout by Dos Santos will be a surprise but Frank Mir has surprised us before. While a win does seem unlikely, the chaos of a fight can lead to unexpected situations and if Dos Santos finds himself on the mat with Frank Mir, this fight will get interesting instantaneously. But if it stays on the feet, Dos Santos should be able to finish his opponent and retain the championship.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva

In a matchup of fighters trying to rebound from a loss, former UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez takes on Strikeforce import Antonio Silva. After losing the belt in his last fight, Velasquez will be looking to take the first step toward earning the opportunity to win back his belt by defeating a tough opponent in Silva.

Silva has made a career of being one of the best heavyweights in the world who hasn’t been tested by top competition. He has impressive victories on his resume over legends Andre Arlovski and Fedor Emelianenko but both of those victories came when those fighters were clearly out of their prime. He has three wins and two losses in his last five fights with the two losses coming against Fabricio Werdum and Daniel Cormier. Based on his recent history, Silva appears to be a UFC caliber heavyweight who will struggle against the top tier of the division. But he will have a huge opportunity to prove that perception wrong when he gets the chance to fight former champion Cain Velasquez on Saturday night. With all the shuffling following Overeem’s PED suspension, Silva has moved up the card and is now preparing for the biggest fight of his career. A win over Velasquez would propel him immediately into title contention. If he wants to do that, he is going to need to keep the fight standing and hope to outstrike the former champion. Velasquez has shown a solid chin in his career but Silva has the power to test it and even finish the fight if he gets the opportunity. But while looking to strike, Silva will have to defend against some of the best takedowns in the division and that is where he is likely to struggle.

Velasquez will likely employ the strategy that won him the belt and try to put Silva on his back early and often. From there, he will look to land his unique style of ground and pound. Having already felt the belt around his waist, Velasquez will be eager to get back to the pinnacle of the sport and he will come out motivated to prove that he deserves that opportunity sooner rather than later. Before being stopped by Dos Santos in his last fight, Velasquez had run through the UFC heavyweight division beating all seven of his opponents with six of those wins coming by TKO or KO. He might not be able to finish Silva within the three rounds allotted for the fight but if he sticks to his gameplan, a definitive decision is well within his reach. The only danger he faces in this fight is if he gets caught with a big punch from Silva or somehow ends up on his back with Silva on top. But based on the significant wrestling advantage Velasquez holds going into this fight, that scenario seems highly unlikely.

As expected, Velasquez is a heavy favorite going into the fight at -400 with Silva coming in at +325. Silva will be looking to land one big punch or find his way into top position somehow and land big strikes from there in order to pull off the upset. The more likely outcome is that Velasquez controls the fight on the feet, puts Silva on his back and grinds his way to a victory. The length of the fight is likely to depend on how long Silva can withstand the onslaught he’ll face once he ends up on his back. But if Silva can put his huge right hand on the former champion’s chin, anything can happen.

UFC 146 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson.

Roy Nelson

Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman

One of the long time favorites of MMA fans, Roy Nelson, returns to the octagon to take on Dave Herman. Both men suffered defeat in their previous fight and Nelson has lost three out of his last four with two of those losses coming to the fighters competing for the championship in the night’s headliner. Herman has split his two UFC fights with his loss coming to Stefan Struve, who is also competing on Saturday night’s card.

Nelson’s last several fights have mainly taken place on the feet and his main accomplishment has been proving that he is almost impossible to knock out. He took punches from Junior Dos Santos that no one else has been able to absorb. But a good chin isn’t enough to win fights and losing three out of four isn’t the way to stay in the UFC. Nelson will be fighting for his UFC life on Saturday night and fortunately for him, he will be facing a fighter he is capable of defeating. Expect Nelson to attempt to show the full range of his game on Saturday night as he should have the advantage wherever the fight takes place. Herman will have the height advantage but that’s nothing new for Nelson who will close the distance and throw power punches. Once on the inside, Nelson should look to put Herman on his back and work his submission game. Nelson is excellent from the top position and has the skill set to finish this fight early.

Herman will be looking to improve on his previous performance when he was stopped by Stefan Struve after an uninspiring eight minutes in the octagon. He looked sluggish against Struve and spent most of the fight standing still in front of his opponent eventually paying for his lack of movement by being dropped with an uppercut and finished with ground and pound. Herman is a much better fighter than he showed that night and he should be looking to prove that against Nelson. A win against Nelson would put him back on the right track while a loss would set him back significantly. He will look to keep the fight standing as he won’t want to grapple with his more accomplished opponent. Look for him to use his reach advantage and keep Nelson on the outside with jabs and kicks. If Nelson looks to close the distance, expect Herman to clinch and use his knees. The task is a difficult one but if Herman is focused, he can pull off the upset.

Nelson is favored in this fight at -225 with Herman the underdog at +185. Nelson should be able to pull out a win by outstriking Herman, putting him on his back and looking for submissions. Herman’s best hope is to keep Nelson on the outside and pick him apart with strikes. Unfortunately for Herman, Nelson is almost impossible to knock out so if he wants a victory, he’s going to have to earn it by winning a decision.

Shane Del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic

In a battle of undefeated heavyweights, former Strikeforce fighter Shane Del Rosario makes his UFC debut against Stipe Miocic who has two wins in the UFC over Joey Beltran and Philip De Fries. Despite being undefeated thus far in their careers, neither fighter has looked overwhelmingly impressive and this fight will be the biggest test either has faced.

Del Rosario won all three of his Strikeforce fights on Challengers cards over Brandon Cash, Lolohea Mahe and Lavar Johnson. He finished all three fights in the first round showing the ability to close with either strikes or submissions. None of those fighters presented a well rounded game to compete with Del Rosario’s skill set and against Miocic, he’ll be facing a more complete fighter. Miocic showed showed powerful if not technically perfect hands in his previous fight against Philip De Fries. Look for Del Rosario to start by striking with Miocic and try to take advantage of the openings he showed in that fight. But as soon as he feels threatened, expect Rosario to try to get the fight to the ground and work his submission game from the top position.

Miocic will more than likely look to keep the fight on the feet and rely on his boxing to try to earn the victory. Lavar Johnson had Del Rosario in trouble and while Miocic might not have the raw power that Johnson has, he’s more technical and could use that accuracy to finish the fight if he gets an opportunity. He will need to use his wrestling defensively in this fight to keep the fight standing. If he can use leg kicks to slow Rosario and then attack with punches, he’ll have a chance at pulling off the upset.

Del Rosario comes into this fight as the favorite at -200 with Miocic getting +170. Look for Del Rosario to strike early and use the clinch to get Miocic to the ground. Once there, he will attempt to create openings with ground and pound to attack with submissions. Miocic will be looking to do the opposite and keep the fight standing to utilize his boxing. Del Rosario should have the superior all around game and earn the victory but if he gets sloppy on his feet, Miocic could take advantage and steal the win.

Lavar Johnson vs. Stefan Struve

Saturday night’s opening fight will feature a fight that is almost guaranteed not to make it out of the first round as Lavar Johnson’s faces Stefan Struve. This is the type of fight that makes fans wonder if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is laughing maniacally in a dark office somewhere at the potential train wreck he has set in motion. Struve has shown a propensity to leave his notoriously weak chin up in the air and Johnson has some of the most powerful punches in the division. If Johnson’s fists touch Struve’s chin, this fight will be over.

Struve is one of the most interesting fighters in the heavyweight division. At 6’11,” he is the tallest legitimate fighter in the world and he uses that height to his advantage by kicking his opponents from distances where they can’t even come close to reaching him. He has shown knockout power in his strikes and has an excellent Dutch muay thai game that he has used to finish several UFC fights. He also uses his long legs to his advantage on the ground where he can latch on to chokes from positions where fighters aren’t used to having to defend against them. His height combined with his technique provides a unique challenge for every opponent he face. His one major weakness thus far in his career has been his chin. Once fighters get inside his outrageous reach, they have been able to consistently drop him with punches. To Struve’s credit, he has survived several knockdowns and fought back to earn victories but that will not be a likely outcome on Saturday night. If he wants to defeat Johnson, he needs to avoid the striking game and get this fight to the mat quickly where he has a significant advantage. If he can do that, he should be able to finish with a submission shortly thereafter.

Lavar Johnson has scary power in his hands. He has finished his last two opponents with punches and if Struve decides to engage in a striking match, he will likely face the same fate. Johnson will look to force the issue and go after Struve early in this fight. He has a limited ground game and he will be in trouble if he finds himself grappling with Struve. Expect Johnson to be swinging for Struve’s chin from the opening bell and even if he grazes it, that could be enough to finish the fight. His goal will be to control the octagon and push Struve against the cage where he can use uppercuts and short hooks to drop his opponent and finish the fight.

The bookmakers have this fight at almost a pick ‘em with Struve favored at -125 and Johnson the “underdog” at +105. That’s exactly where the line should be because if Johnson lands a punch, the fight could be over in an instant but if Struve can get the fight to the ground, it could end just as quickly. This fight lends itself to an early finish and both fighters have a distinct route to earning the victory. The outcome will depend on whether Struve can get the fight to the ground before Johnson lands a punch.

Lavar Johnson

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions –Saturday night’s Strikeforce card was much better than advertised. Especially by me. It featured the arrival of Daniel Cormier as a major contender and a fight between.

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Thoughts and Opinions

–Saturday night’s Strikeforce card was much better than advertised. Especially by me. It featured the arrival of Daniel Cormier as a major contender and a fight between Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thompson that proved all of us who said we had no interest in seeing this rivalry become a trilogy wrong. Unfortunately, it doesn’t leave us with much to anticipate going forward. Melendez has no one else in the division to fight. Yes, he could fight Pat Healy. But in reality, Healy is clearly the third best 155 pounder in Strikeforce after Melendez and Thompson. Cormier has even less competition. And by that, I mean no competition. If he doesn’t move to the UFC, Strikeforce is going to have to sign someone just to get him a fight. The only interesting fight to be made after this card is Rafael Cavalcante vs. Gegard Mousasi, which brings me to my next point.

–The UFC appears to be continuing its strategy of purchasing, pillaging and disbanding its competition. And with their ridiculous success over the last ten years, I don’t blame them for sticking with the gameplan. But I think they might be ignoring one aspect of running a professional athletics empire. They are clearly modeling their organization more on successful team sport endeavors like the NFL and NBA than on the combat sports model created by boxing. They want to be the one venue where the best athletes compete for the most important championships. And to a large extent, they have already achieved that. But before those athletes are ready to be amongst the best in the world, they need to develop their skills somewhere. The NHL and MLB both have extensive minor league systems where young players compete to earn the right to play at the highest level. The NBA and NFL both use the NCAA for the same purpose. With collegiate MMA an unlikely proposition any time in the near future, the UFC is going to need a developmental system for young fighters who are not ready for the octagon. My suggestion to the UFC would be to use Strikeforce for that purpose. Make Strikeforce the proving ground for fighters trying to earn their way into the UFC. This model would create an interesting dynamic by adding a promotion/relegation element to MMA and MMA discussion. When is an emerging star ready for the big show? Should a struggling veteran be “sent down” to Strikeforce? The counter argument to this of course is why should the UFC pay to develop talent when smaller promotions are perfectly willing to do the work for them? My answer is that a clear pattern is emerging. It goes like this. Non-UFC organization X signs young fighters with raw talent for a minimal investment. Over time, several of those fighters develop as projected and begin to gain recognition. Those fighters have a sense of loyalty to the organization that gave them an opportunity. The organization rides those fighters to financial viability and begins to make enough noise that the UFC is forced to acknowledge them. The UFC attacks Organization X directly by scheduling competing events and luring away fighters. Organization X’s growth slows or plateaus, which causes financial issues. The UFC swoops in and buys out Organization X at a good price to eliminate competition. I don’t know what this process is costing the UFC but instead of going through this every few years, why not just be proactive in eliminating competition by having a place for emerging talent to compete instead of allowing that talent to sign elsewhere and being forced to deal with the problem on the back end? Even if you only break even or take a slight loss in raw financial numbers, isn’t the increased strength of the monopoly and brand singularity worth the investment?

–I have a feeling that this is going to become a consistent theme of this column for as long as I’m allowed to write it but I feel compelled to address another judging issue. And by “issue,” I mean the absurdity of lazily copycatting boxing’s system. MMA should not be scored on a 10-9 round by round system. Based on the judging criteria, Melendez won the first three rounds last night and Thompson won the last two. But Melendez barely won those three rounds and did no damage to Thompson. In the final two rounds, Thompson completely controlled the fight and came the closest to finishing it. I know that damage isn’t everything but Thompson obviously inflicted a significantly greater amount than Melendez. That has to count for something. We’re scoring a fight. Damage matters. If you ask me to assess who won that fight without regard for any scoring system, I’d be adamant that Thompson won. But within the confines of the scoring system currently in place, Melendez won. And to me, that’s a problem. We need a mechanism that allows for greater flexibility. I don’t know exactly what that is but I do know that Thompson was robbed on Saturday night. Not by the judges, who did a great job throughout the event, but by the framework within which they were forced to operate.

-Alan Wells

Strikeforce – Barnett vs. Cormier: Post Fight Recap

Daniel Cormier defeats Josh Barnett via Unanimous Decision Last night, Daniel Cormier officially arrived at the top tier of the heavyweight division. Josh Barnett is one of the top five heavyweights in the world and.

Daniel Cormier defeats Josh Barnett via Unanimous Decision

Last night, Daniel Cormier officially arrived at the top tier of the heavyweight division. Josh Barnett is one of the top five heavyweights in the world and Cormier completely dominated him for five rounds. Cormier was never in trouble at any point in the fight. He controlled the striking game despite Barnett’s huge reach advantage. He closed the distance easily and used his quickness to outstrike Barnett on the inside. He consistently landed combinations damaging Barnett over and over with his uppercut. Any time he felt his opponent building a bit of momentum on the feet, he used his Olympic caliber wrestling to put Barnett on his back and dominated the fight on the ground as well. Barnett’s only opportunity to win the fight came when he latched on to Cormier’s leg and attempted a heel hook but he was never able to get a decent grip and Cormier slipped away easily. Considering the UFC’s history of handling organizations it purchases, one would have to expect that Cormier will make his way into the octagon for his next fight because the Strikeforce heavyweight division is basically non-existent at this point and Cormier is one of the fastest rising fighters in MMA. Considering Barnett’s history, his future is much less clear but provided his post fight PED testing comes up clean, he has earned another chance to compete at the highest level.

Gilbert Melendez defeats Josh Thompson via Unanimous Decision

Gilbert Melendez nearly lost his belt last night. I scored the first three rounds for Melendez with the first round being the closest of the three. But Josh Thompson dominated the last two rounds and had the fight continued past the fifth round, Thompson would have won the fight. By the end of the fight, I was looking for ways to justify scoring the fight in favor of Thompson but the scoring system is what it is and based on the criteria as they exist, Melendez was the winner. But that didn’t stop one of the judges from giving the fight to Thompson and even though it was the wrong way to score the fight, Thompson deserved the split decision. The first three rounds were basically a boxing match with Melendez barely getting the best of Thompson in the exchanges. He repeatedly stuffed the challenger’s takedown attempts and landed a takedown of his own to seal the second round. After the fight, Melendez claimed that he knew he won the first three rounds and that he started to “cupcake it” after that. If that’s the case, his face payed for his lack of effort. Over the last two rounds, Thompson began to dominate the exchanges and his cardio was clearly better than the champion’s. Thompson landed a right hand that proved to be the most powerful strike of the fight early in the fourth round. At the end of the round, he took Melendez’s back and in the most dangerous moment of the fight for either fighter, attempted to finish with a rear naked choke. The fifth round was more of the same with Thompson’s cardio continuing to be the difference and Melendez unable to keep pace. After the fight, Thompson seemed surprised at the decision but it was really the only one that could have been made. In his post-fight interview, Melendez tried to explain his performance by saying that he had a hard time getting motivated to train as hard as he normally would for the fight because he felt that he had nothing to gain by beating Thompson again. Whatever the case, Thompson proved that he deserved a third chance at Melendez and he also proved that he is back as a contender at the highest level of the lightweight division.

Rafael Cavalcante defeats Mike Kyle via 1st Round Guillotine Choke

Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante made a statement with an explosive first round stoppage of Mike Kyle. He hurt Kyle with a knee early in the round and latched onto a guillotine while Kyle was trying to recover. Kyle tried to slam his way out of it but only succeeded in pushing the choke in deeper and was forced to tap. The performance by Feijao was impressive but we did not get to see if he had improved the main deficiency in his game, which has been his cardio. With the heavier divisions in Strikeforce currently in flux as the UFC cherry picks fighters to bolster its roster, the future for both of these fighters is unknown but I expect that Feijao will eventually make his way to the octagon.

Chris Spang defeats Nah-Shon Burrell via 1st Round TKO

In a matchup of up and coming welterweights, Chris Spang scored an impressive knockout over Nah-Shon Burrell. Burrell came out more aggressive throwing looping right hands and controlling the center of the cage. Spang seemed to struggle initially with the distance and unorthodox style of Burrell but once he figured it out, he closed the distance quickly and started landing combinations. Spang then landed a big left hand that hurt Burrell but didn’t drop him. Instead of going crazy as one might expect from a young fighter, Spang stayed under control and continued to throw combinations of punches and knees. He battered Burrell around the cage who showed a great heart and chin in trying to stay in the fight despite being hit with several huge strikes. Eventually, Burrell could not stay on his feet and Josh Rosenthal stepped in to mercifully end the fight. Burrell will need to study his technique and come back with a tighter defensive game. He clearly has the athleticism to compete in MMA but he has now had two consecutive losing performances in Strikeforce and needs to come back strong if he hopes to continue competing at this level. Spang, on the other hand, found an opponent willing to engage in a striking match with him and he showed that he’s dangerous in that aspect of the game. If he continues to develop his overall game, he has a chance to make an impact in the 170 pound division.

Strikeforce- Barnett vs. Cormier: Pre Fight Part I

Josh Barnett (31-5) vs. Daniel Cormier (9-0) The highly anticipated Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, which began almost a year ago meanders to an anticlimactic conclusion this Saturday, May 19th. This was an event that was.


Josh Barnett (31-5) vs. Daniel Cormier (9-0)

The highly anticipated Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, which began almost a year ago meanders to an anticlimactic conclusion this Saturday, May 19th. This was an event that was supposed to bring back the drama and spectacle of the old Pride Grand Prix’s from Japan. It started with both Fedor Emelianenko and Alistair Overeem competing along with a strong supporting cast. We were supposed to see eight of the best heavyweights in the world fight for the Strikeforce belt over three exciting events. Instead, we saw Alistair Overeem’s worst performance in years and we watched Fedor have the torch he carried for so long ripped from his hands. This was not what we expected. But as one legend is pushed out of the sport, we may be seeing the arrival of a new star. And before he can be officially established as a top heavyweight in the world, he has one more veteran to dispatch.

Saturday’s main event between Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett is more about Cormier than Barnett. Despite the fact that Cormier is only one year younger than Barnett, he feels like an up and comer while Barnett feels like a grizzled veteran. And in MMA terms, those would be accurate descriptions. Barnett has been competing for fifteen years and has fought in every major organization over his polarizing career. Barnett has had multiple PED and licensing issues but has been clean thus far in his Strikeforce run. His game is a known entity. He’s well-rounded with solid striking and high level submission grappling. His catch wrestling is different than the typical Brazillian Jiu-Jitsu grappling most fighters employ and can be problematic for those who haven’t faced it. But given Cormier’s Olympic background, it seems unlikely that Barnett will be able to get him to the ground. More than likely, this fight will take place on the feet. And if that’s the case, both fighters will be working the less established aspect of their game.

Cormier’s game is less of a known entity than Barnett’s and his skill set is still growing significantly between fights. With only nine fights, Cormier is far less experienced than Barnett but he has shown flashes of athleticism and explosiveness that could pose serious problems for his more established opponent. With his first fight coming at age thirty after a distinguished wrestling career featuring multiple Olympic appearances, many people questioned whether Cormier would be able to develop an MMA skill set quickly enough to have a major impact in the sport. His surprising knockout of the granite-chinned Antonio Silva in his last fight suggested that he may be progressing more quickly than expected. A similar performance against Barnett would thrust Cormier into the upper echelon of the heavyweight division but a decision victory is much more likely than a finish. The only fighters to finish Barnett in his storied career are Mirko Cro-Cop and Pedro Rizzo. If Cormier adds his name to that list, the rest of the heavyweight division will have to take notice.

The bookmakers have this fight listed as basically a pick ‘em with Barnett at -120 and Cormier at -110. That seems appropriate considering that we will likely be looking at a striking match between two fighters who prefer to be on the ground. Based on the growth arc displayed by Cormier over his last few fights, I have to think that he’s going to come out and show us even more than his has in the past. If that’s the case, I expect that he’ll be a little too much for Barnett to handle. However, if Barnett can use his significant reach advantage to keep Cormier on the outside, we could see the end of Cormier’s undefeated record. Barnett will need to use kicks and jabs to keep Cormier from closing the distance and using the power punches he showed against Silva. With such a clear advantage in terms of submission skill on the ground, Barnett should be able to kick freely and that will be the key for him. So while this isn’t the fight we expected to see when this Grand Prix was announced, we will definitely learn something about the future of the heavyweight division.

Strikeforce- Barnett vs. Cormier: Pre Fight Part II

Gilbert Melendez (20-2) vs. Josh Thompson (19-4) Fight fans love trilogies. And while this one has a bit of a foregone conclusion feel to it, the fighters did split their first two fights and Josh.

Gilbert Melendez (20-2) vs. Josh Thompson (19-4)

Fight fans love trilogies. And while this one has a bit of a foregone conclusion feel to it, the fighters did split their first two fights and Josh Thompson earned this title shot by controlling KJ Noons in their March fight. Melendez dominated Thompson in their last fight and since then, Thompson has struggled with injuries while Melendez has continued to develop into one of the best lightweights in the world. But with Strikeforce’s 155 pound division featuring names like Ryan Couture and Pat Healy as the next best options after Thompson, this was really the only fight to be made.

In a third fight like this, pre-fight discussion and analysis is generally rendered moot. We have seen this fight before. We know exactly what to expect. Melendez will use his boxing to set up takedowns and try to maintain top control. From there, he will use his ground striking to wear down Thompson and hopefully finish the fight in the later rounds.

Thompson will use his kicks to keep Melendez on the outside. He will look to stuff Melendez’ takedown attempts and create scrambles. Out of the scrambles, he will look to find his way to top position and show his own ground and pound skills as well as try to lock on to a submission if Melendez leaves him an opening.

A finish to this fight before the twenty five minutes have passed is unlikely. Melendez goes into the fight as a huge favorite at -445 with Thompson the underdog at +345. Based on the previous fights and what we have seen from both fighters since those fights, Melendez is the obvious choice to win this fight. But everyone, even Melendez, knows that. And that’s the biggest danger for the champion in this fight. Josh Thompson is still an elite fighter and Melendez cannot afford to take him lightly. Thompson will be coming out to prove that he is fully recovered from his injuries and ready to reclaim his title. And if Melendez has had anything other than a championship caliber training camp, Thompson could score the upset.

Rafael Cavalcante (11-3) vs. Mike Kyle (19-8)

In another rematch, former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante tries to avenge a 2009 loss to well-traveled veteran Mike Kyle. Feijao was expected to win the first fight but tired in the second round and suffered an upset TKO loss. Kyle will be looking to prove that the first fight wasn’t a fluke and put together back to back wins.

Feijao has the unique history of never having been involved in a decision and I wouldn’t expect this fight to be the first. Both fighters have power in their hands and both have a history of either finishing fights or being finished. Feijao’s biggest asset is his muay thai and he will look to keep the fight on the feet. He will try to pull Kyle into the clinch where he can utilize his versatile striking skill set. His knees are the most dangerous part of his arsenal but his punches and elbows are dangerous as well. Expect Feijao to close the distance, push Kyle against the cage and look to attack in the clinch from there. Kyle is not averse to fighting in close and he will look to counter Feijao’s muay thai with dirty boxing. Considering his opponent’s history of cardio issues, I would expect Kyle to attack the body early and try to tire Feijao. Kyle would also be smart to try to wrestle Feijao to the ground and wear on him with ground and pound.

Feijao is the favorite going in to the fight at -205 with Kyle at +165. If Feijao is in shape and motivated, he should finish Kyle by the end of the second round. But if Kyle can push the pace early and keep the fight on the ground, he could grind out a late stoppage or decision.

-Alan Wells