Author: Alex Ballentine

UFC on Fox 8: Odds and Predictions for Biggest Fights on Card

The UFC will roll out its eighth card on FOX Saturday night in Seattle, Wash., headlined by a flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger John Moraga. 
After a three-week layoff since Chris Weidman knocked out Anderson …

The UFC will roll out its eighth card on FOX Saturday night in Seattle, Wash., headlined by a flyweight title bout between champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger John Moraga. 

After a three-week layoff since Chris Weidman knocked out Anderson Silva at UFC 162, the mediocre card should at least tide fight fans over until UFC 163 on Aug. 3. 

Besides a flyweight championship bout, which should offer the usual high-pace action we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from that division, the card will be anchored by two intriguing welterweight bouts. Rising contender Rory MacDonald and veteran Jake Ellenberger will meet in the co-main event while Bobby Voelker and Robbie Lawler will also fight on the main card. 

Here’s a closer look at all three of those fights, including the latest odds from Bovada and a prediction for each. All statistics used via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.

 

Bobby Voelker vs. Robbie Lawler

Odds: Voelker +230, Lawler -300

Based purely off of each fighters most recent bout, it’s easy to see why Lawler is a heavy favorite.

“Ruthless” is coming off of the biggest win in his career after knocking out Josh Koscheck in his last bout. Voelker is coming off of a decision loss in his latest bout against Patrick Cote of all people. Throw in the fact that Voelker was the last minute replacement for Siyar Bahadurzada, who was the injury replacement for Tarec Saffiedine per MMA Junkie, and it’s clear to see the odds are stacked against him. 

Upon closer examination, this one is a little more competitive than what meets the eye though. 

Lawler may have defeated Koscheck, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that he was 1-3 in his previous four fights with Strikeforce before the win. 

Conversely, Voelker was 3-1 prior to his loss to Cote—a loss that saw him lose a decision despite outstriking Cote in two of three rounds and landing four takedowns while not giving up any takedowns to his opponent. 

Prediction: Voelker by Decision

Lawler can end the fight at any moment with his power, but he hasn’t won a fight by decision since 2003. Voelker hasn’t been finished since 2008. It’s an upset, but not one that’s out of the realm of possibility. 

 

Rory MacDonald vs. Jake Ellenberger

Odds: MacDonald -240, Ellenberger +190

MacDonald comes into the fight as a strong favorite despite Ellenberger‘s recent knockout victory over Nate Marquardt and Vegas is exactly right in this case. 

As good and experienced as Ellenberger is, MacDonald has shown throughout his brief, yet brilliant career that he deserves to be favored. However Ellenberger will prove to be a different challenge for MacDonald. 

While most of MacDonald’s opponents have been unable to handle the 24-year-old’s wrestling, the stats show that Ellenberger is on similar footing in the department:

 

Prediction: MacDonald by Rd. 2 TKO

This fight should give us a great look into MacDonald’s striking game. The stats show that he’s capable of getting the best of Ellenberger on the feet. He nearly doubles his pace (4.39 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Ellenberger‘s 2.67) with better accuracy (55 percent to 45 percent). 

 

Demetrious Johnson vs. John Moraga

Odds: Johnson -500, Moraga +350

Demetrious Johnson enters his second title defense in a bit of a predicament. He’s the only UFC champion (not including interim champion Renan Barao) that has yet to headline a pay-per-view event. 

Yet, he’s not really in a position to make much of a statement about his drawing power without a dominant win over an opponent that few have seen fight. 

Make no mistake, Moraga is a dangerous challenger. He’s 14-1 in his career and has finished both of his opponents in the UFC, but his last fight was a Facebook prelim and the fight before that opened up the FX preliminary card. 

Johnson has yet to earn a stoppage since dropping down to flyweight, but needs one here if he wants to stop his streak of fighting on free TV. 

Prediction: Johnson by Decision

Moraga is a strong challenger, but hasn’t done anything to show he can keep up with the quickness of Johnson. Mighty Mouse only allows 1.97 significant strikes per minute and is one of the better defensive fighters in the sport. He’ll use that to his advantage once again to outpoint yet another opponent. 

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Johnson vs. Moraga: Mighty Mouse Needs Dominant Win to Become Pay-Per-View Draw

Quick, name the only UFC champion that hasn’t headlined a pay-per-view. 
If you said Demetrious Johnson, congratulations. The headline may have been a strong hint, but you got it. 
It’s true. The promotion’s lightest champion has yet to be th…

Quick, name the only UFC champion that hasn’t headlined a pay-per-view. 

If you said Demetrious Johnson, congratulations. The headline may have been a strong hint, but you got it. 

It’s true. The promotion’s lightest champion has yet to be the main attraction for a pay-per-view—partially due to the fact that fighters from the smaller weight divisions rarely draw the buy rates that the UFC desperately seeks. 

According to MMA Payout Blue Book, only one card headlined by fighters weighing 135 pounds or less has topped 300,000 buys—UFC 132 headlined by Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz. 

But Johnson is partially to blame for his lack of drawing power. 

For those who love the technical aspects of the game, Johnson is a joy to watch. His footwork, quickness and wrestling ability truly make him the best in his division. He’s taken on explosive technical opponents in Joseph Benavidez, Ian McCall and John Dodson and topped them all.

However, those aren’t the qualities of a fighter that make a draw. 

No, the average fan not only wants to see a champion win but a champion win impressively—preferably by finishing his opponent. 

Since dropping down to his current division, Johnson has gone 3-0-1 on his way to winning the inaugural tournament, including a majority draw against McCall and a split decision against Benavidez.

While the FightMetric stats for those bouts wouldn’t indicate that “Mighty Mouse” was not on the receiving end of any egregious decisions, it still doesn’t do anything to combat the perception that he’s a “boring” champion. 

So what can Johnson do to sell himself as a more marketable champion?

Finishing John Moraga at UFC on Fox 8 would be a great start. 

Unfortunately, Johnson will be in the precarious position of fighting an opponent whose skill set is much farther along than his notoriety. Moraga has just one loss on his record (to John Dodson 2010) and has finished Ulysses Gomez and Chris Cariaso since joining the UFC.

The problem?

His first fight against Gomez opened up the FX preliminaries for UFC on Fox 4, and his second fight was buried on the Facebook prelims of UFC 155. In essence, there’s a strong possibility that many fans will be seeing Moraga fight for the first time Saturday. 

Johnson cannot afford to have a close fight with someone with as little exposure as Moraga if he wants to become a bigger draw. 

 

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Anderson Silva Should Not Be Favorite over Chris Weidman in UFC 168 Rematch

The folks in Las Vegas have Anderson Silva pegged as a slight favorite (-160, per Bovada) to rebound in a big way against Chris Weidman and reclaim his middleweight championship at UFC 168. 
Considering the first fight featured a much closer line …

The folks in Las Vegas have Anderson Silva pegged as a slight favorite (-160, per Bovada) to rebound in a big way against Chris Weidman and reclaim his middleweight championship at UFC 168. 

Considering the first fight featured a much closer line than usual for a Silva defense, per Jeremy Botter of Bleacher Report, it is a bit surprising that Weidman‘s victory wasn’t enough to swing the odds into his favor. 

After all, if Weidman had respect even before entering the Octagon against Silva and ultimately knocked out the reigning champion, shouldn’t that be enough to give him the respect of being the favorite?

Obviously, Silva shouldn’t be a huge underdog. He still boasts the most incredible resume in UFC history as the record holder for most title defenses, most finishes and longest winning streak in the history of the organization. 

One fight doesn’t take all of that away. 

However, you can’t compare resumes when making the odds for this fight. Weidman has the best resume that he could possibly build with the opportunities that he’s been given. He’s undefeated in his career with seven of his 10 wins coming by way of TKO or submission, including victories over Uriah Hall, Demian Maia and Mark Munoz. 

So the only thing we can really use to compare as we handicap the rematch is the first match between the two. That’s a measuring stick that sees Weidman as a slight favorite at the very least. Weidman did exactly what he had to do in the first fight. 

The 29-year-old showed off his wrestling ability that made him a strong candidate to dethrone Silva in the opening frame, landing a takedown, landing some ground-and-pound while even attempting two submissions, according to FightMetric.

It was then that Silva employed a familiar tactic we’ve seen from him for years—taunting his opponent into striking exchanges that they can’t win. 

Except Weidman remained composed, confident and unrattled in the face of Silva’s mind games, even dropping his own hands and challenging Silva to hit him in response at one point. It paid off, as Weidman waited for just the right time to catch an overextended Silva for the finishing blows. 

Now Silva must find a way to recalibrate his game plan and unseat the champion as the challenger for the first time since 2006. 

The obvious counterargument to all of this is what Silva’s fans have been saying since the fight ended: “We didn’t see the best Anderson Silva at UFC 162.” While there may be some truth to that, we didn’t see Chris Weidman‘s best either. 

With just 10 fights under his belt Weidman has showed incredible progression from fight-to-fight at this point of his career. Just three fights ago, Weidman was taking on his first real middleweight contender in Demian Maia, a fight he won by unanimous decision when he narrowly outstruck Maia 58-51 according to FightMetric‘s numbers.

It was by no means an impressive performance, but it moved him up the ladder. From there he went on to dominate a fight against Mark Munoz to earn his title shot, looking like a different fighter as Munoz failed to land a single significant strike. 

Which brings us to the latest fight with Silva nearly a full year later. Weidman once again showed development by standing up with the best striker in the world and coming out victorious. 

Without a long layoff and the confidence of a championship behind him, there’s a great chance we see an even better version of Weidman show up in the rematch. 

That’s a prospect that should make him the slight favorite. 

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Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman Rematch Announced for UFC 168

UFC 168 just became one of the most highly anticipated cards in history with the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman serving as the main event.  
On SportsCenter, UFC president Dana White announced the decision to have the high-profil…

UFC 168 just became one of the most highly anticipated cards in history with the rematch between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman serving as the main event.  

On SportsCenter, UFC president Dana White announced the decision to have the high-profile grudge match headline the Dec. 28 show, according to Arash Markazi of ESPN Los Angeles. 

As if the rematch between the newly crowned middleweight champion and former pound-for-pound kingpin weren’t enough, a women’s bantamweight title match between Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate will serve as the co-main event, per Kevin Iole of Yahoo! Sports. 

The UFC couldn’t end 2013 with a bigger, better card. Fresh off Weidman‘s shocking win over “The Spider” at UFC 162, White was quick to say that the rematch would be the biggest fight in UFC history. 

Paired with a championship bout between Rousey and Tate, who will be coaching against each other in the 18th season of The Ultimate Fighter, the card could outperform the most successful UFC pay-per-view of all time, UFC 100. 

According to MMA Payout Blue Book, UFC 100 reached 1.6 million buys thanks in large part to two championship defenses from Brock Lesnar and Georges St-Pierre. 

The bout between Rousey and Tate will also be a grudge match. Rousey won the Strikeforce women’s bantamweight title against Tate before they joined the UFC. Rousey beat Tate by first-round armbar, the same way that she has defeated all of her opponents en route to a perfect 7-0 record. 

With a full season of The Ultimate Fighter to hype up the co-main, one of the sport’s biggest stars attempting to come back from his first ever knockout loss and a nice end-of-the-year date, there’s no doubt that this card won’t fail to generate plenty of buzz. 

 

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Anderson Silva Must Change Game Plan If He Hopes to Avenge Loss to Chris Weidman

If Anderson Silva is to avenge his loss to Chris Weidman at UFC 162, he’s going to have to change up the game plan that he used to defeat so many other opponents. 
The new middleweight champion was able to get to Silva in the first round. He secur…

If Anderson Silva is to avenge his loss to Chris Weidman at UFC 162, he’s going to have to change up the game plan that he used to defeat so many other opponents. 

The new middleweight champion was able to get to Silva in the first round. He secured a takedown early thanks to a second effort after Silva initially defended the double-leg. 

From there, Weidman landed a few strikes on the ground before Silva worked his way back to his feet to do what he always does—lure his opponents into a striking match that they can’t win. 

Silva has always been the best at getting opponents to overextend themselves. He puts his hands down and taunts his adversaries to set himself up to counterstrike with his pinpoint accuracy. The result is usually another highlight finish.

What he didn’t account for was the All-American wrestler exhibiting so much poise under pressure. Weidman timed his flurry of strikes to catch “The Spider” napping. 

Given that Weidman already showed he’s keen to Silva’s tactics, The Spider should abandon his typical game plan against the first man to knock him out. 

However, according to a Silva interview with GQ Brazil (translated by Google Chrome’s translation tool), he’s not going to change his tactics in the rematch. When asked if he would do anything different in the second go-around, Silva responded:

I think I would focus more. Would make a reverse path, but would not change the tactic. I am confident that my game did just that did not work out. Game is game, you can win or lose. 

From those words, we can expect Silva to continue to use taunting as a way to engage Weidman in a stand-up exhibition. 

The problem is that Weidman knows how to handle that. He’s not going to be drawn into taking risks just because Silva goads him. The Spider will have to be the aggressor or depend on his jiu-jitsu if he wants to come out on top in the rematch. 

After all, his jiu-jitsu saved him against Chael Sonnen in their first bout. As arguably the greatest fighter of all time, Silva should be able to adjust after losing for the first time in the UFC. 

Perhaps Silva should learn from boxer Roy Jones Jr., whom Silva has long displayed an interest in fighting. 

Jones Jr., also known for his flashy style and in-ring taunting, began his boxing career at a near-perfect 49-1 with the one loss coming by way of disqualification. He too seemed nearly unbeatable until he was stunned in the second round of his bout with Antonio Tarver. 

With the mystique of Jones Jr. put to rest, the one-time pound-for-pound champion finished 7-7 in his last 14 fights, permanently damaging his legacy. 

Silva must show that he’s capable of adjusting after being figured out by a hungry contender. Otherwise, his legacy could be in similar danger. 

It’s too early to say that Silva is headed in that direction. You can’t make too much of one loss for such a dominant athlete, but the rematch will tell us all we need to know about his ability to carry on as one of the best in the sport. 

 

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Anderson Silva Would Be Wise to Avoid Immediate Rematch with Chris Weidman

There are a lot of appealing fights for Anderson Silva to take after his stunning UFC 162 loss to Chris Weidman—a rematch with the new middleweight champion isn’t one of them. Prior to losing to Weidman via second-round knockout in Saturday’…

There are a lot of appealing fights for Anderson Silva to take after his stunning UFC 162 loss to Chris Weidman—a rematch with the new middleweight champion isn’t one of them. 

Prior to losing to Weidman via second-round knockout in Saturday’s title fight, Silva had won a record-setting 10 consecutive title defenses and 16 fights in the UFC. Now, he’s without the title for the first time in seven years. 

The obvious fight that the fans want is a rematch with Weidman. 

Even though taunting and fighting with his hands down is par for the course with Silva, the fact that he was knocked out with his hands down leads many to believe that things could be different in a rematch. 

That very well could be. Silva is still one of the top fighters in the sport. One loss doesn’t change that.

However, if Silva’s statement in his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan are to be believed, “The Spider” has no plans to rematch Weidman—or even challenge for the belt. 

 

On the surface, turning down a rematch doesn’t make a lot of sense. As fans, we’d like to think that the championship belt is what fighters fight for—even if the reality is that money is the ultimate motivator. 

For Silva, it’s understandable that getting the belt back might not be priority No. 1. He’s held the championship for seven years and defended it more than anyone. Coming off that kind of title reign, there’s no real purpose to trying to get it back immediately. 

If Silva’s goals are to retain as much power over his matchmaking while remaining one of the UFC’s biggest attractions, he would be wise to avoid the belt. 

By granting Weidman a rematch, Silva would lose one of those two valuable assets to the rest of his career. 

Should Silva prove that he can come back and beat Weidman with a game plan that includes a little less hands-down taunting, his ability to pursue fights outside of his division will be restricted. After all, Silva didn’t want to fight Weidman in the first place.

As Dana White told MMA Junkie, Silva hasn’t always been enthusiastic about the title challengers that the UFC puts in front of him:

This is typical Anderson Silva-Ed Soares craziness. Every [expletive] time there’s a fight, he wants to fight “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. Then he wants to fight this guy and that guy. It’s always the same deal. It always happen. “I absolutely will not fight Chael Sonnen. He doesn’t deserve the title.” This is what we do.

So if it seemed like Silva was almost relieved that he no longer held the belt after his loss to Weidman, that may be why. He’s now much more likely to have his way in negotiating his next opponent. 

On the flip side, if Silva fights Weidman again and loses, that would be devastating to his status as one of the UFC’s biggest draws. 

Regardless of how great a fighter may have been throughout their career, it only take a few losses to lose that drawing power. Even great champions like Matt Hughes and B.J. Penn were no longer great draws by the end of their career after losing multiple fights. 

Back-to-back losses against a fighter in Weidman who wasn’t exactly a star before his upset victory and Silva’s career as a pay-per-view stud would suffer all the more. 

At this point, Silva would be better off to take whatever fights he’d like against the likes of Cung Le, Michael Bisping, anyone in the 205-pound weight class or even Roy Jones Jr., but a fight against Weidman would be a lose-lose situation for the 38-year-old. 

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