Author: Alex Ballentine

UFC 154: Last-Minute Odds and Predictions for Main Card Fights

The undercard fights might be underway for UFC 154, but there’s still some time to lock in picks for the night’s biggest matchups—including George St. Pierre’s long-awaited return.While GSP’s return and Carlos Condit’s first fight since his contr…

The undercard fights might be underway for UFC 154, but there’s still some time to lock in picks for the night’s biggest matchups—including George St. Pierre’s long-awaited return.

While GSP‘s return and Carlos Condit‘s first fight since his controversial win over Nick Diaz steals the spotlight, there are still plenty of intriguing fights that should make tonight’s pay-per-view well worth the price of admission.

Here’s a quick look at each of the main card fights that will go down on Saturday’s pay-per-view broadcast. All odds courtesy of Bovada.

 

Mark Hominick (-300) vs. Pablo Garza (+230)

Once upon a time Mark Hominick was considered the top contender in the featherweight division. Upon coming into the UFC on a four-fight win streak he earned a title shot at Jose Aldo with a win over George Roop.

Hominick‘s title bid came up short in a five-round decision loss to Aldo, but he showed a ton of heart. Standing toe-to-toe with Aldo from bell to bell. He hasn’t been able to capitalize on that performance though and has lost two more fights. Hominick desperately needs a win against Garza to earn some job security going forward.

Garza is a solid fighter. He has dangerous submissions and is capable of pulling off an upset, but Hominick is too talented and has too much at stake to lose this one.

Prediction: Hominick by TKO in Round 2

 

Rafael Dos Anjos (-210) vs. Mark Bocek (+170)

This fight has been moved to the pay-per-view card in light of Nick Ring’s late withdraw from a bout with Costa Philippou. Fans should be treated to an excellent bout as these guys match up really well and should put on a good fight.

Dos Anjos comes into the game as the favorite here and is coming off of wins over Kamal Shalorus and Anthony Njokuani. Dos Anjos has an excellent submission game and striking to boot but he’ll face an interesting test in Bocek.

Bocek is coming off of back-to-back wins against John Alessio and Nik Lentz. His last loss came at the hands of current lightweight champion Benson Henderson so he has experience of going against a former champ.

Dos Anjos is the more explosive of the two and will look to earn the submission victory wherever possible, but Bocek has the wrestling and cardio to make life difficult.

Prediction: Bocek by Unanimous Decision

 

Francis Carmont (-250) vs. Tom Lawlor (+195)

Since coming into the UFC a little over a year ago, Francis Carmont has lived up to expectations. He hasn’t lost a fight since 2008 and holds three straight wins in the UFC.

His combination of striking and submissions make him a dangerous man. He’s won his last two fights by rear naked choke.

Lawlor is the kind of grinder that should offer a great test for Carmont. He has the ability to suffocate opponents with wrestling and the power to test Carmont‘s chin if he connects.

Lawlor is an interesting play here as Carmont hasn’t fought anyone with his wrestling acumen, but Carmont‘s jiu-jitsu could prove to be the deciding factor.

Prediction: Carmont by Submission in Round 2


Johny Hendricks (-135) vs. Martin Kampmann (+105)

Not including the title fight, this is the biggest fight of the night.

With GSP finally coming back from injury, the welterweight division can now resume forming a title picture again and both of these guys are in the thick of things.

Hendricks has been on absolute tear since losing to Rick Story in 2010. He’s garnered wins over four quality opponents in Mike Pierce, Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck.

Kampmann has made an impressive case for himself in his own right—he has netted victories over Story, Thiago Alves and Jake Ellenberger since November 2011 and continues to show he’s an elite welterweight.

This is an incredibly close matchup and the winner can truly say they deserve a shot at the belt. If the fight remains standing, Kampmann‘s technical striking will give him an advantage. However, if Hendricks can get this to the ground, his wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Prediction: Hendricks by Unanimous Decision


Georges St. Pierre (-325) vs. Carlos Condit (+250)

This is the bout that fight fans have been awaiting for the better part of a year.

Condit drew considerable heat for his patient game plan against Nick Diaz, but we should see a return of the “Natural Born Killer” against St. Pierre. Despite the complaints about Condit‘s approach to the Diaz fight, 26 wins by submission or knockout says that he’s a finisher.

When GSP returns to the octagon, it’ll be the first time fans have seen the champion fight in more than a year. He’ll be making his return from a serious knee injury that required him to have the knee reconstructed.

With St. Pierre’s work ethic, it’s perfectly reasonable to believe that we will see the same GSP we are used to seeing. However, Condit is the kind of fighter that can bring the fight to St. Pierre and put him on the defensive.

St. Pierre is a sizable favorite but Condit‘s explosive striking and finishing ability make him dangerous enough to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Condit by KO in Round 4


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Franklin vs Le: Exciting Main Event Ultimately Means Nothing in Title Picture

The UFC’s first foray into China gave us some new highlight material in Cung Le’s explosive knockout of Rich Franklin, but it didn’t give us a title contender.Le’s thunderous punch was fun, no doubt.It’s is an instant candidate for knockout of the year…

The UFC’s first foray into China gave us some new highlight material in Cung Le‘s explosive knockout of Rich Franklin, but it didn’t give us a title contender.

Le’s thunderous punch was fun, no doubt.

It’s is an instant candidate for knockout of the year. It’s all but guaranteed to be played over and over while heavy metal music plays to hype several UFC events in the near future. It’s probably the highlight of Le’s short UFC career up to this point.

That being said, when we look back on the event, it won’t have much relevance to the title picture in the 185 pound division.

Both were great choices to headline the UFC’s first appearance in China. Between Franklin’s penchant for earning finishes and Le’s elite striking, there was no way this fight could disappoint in terms of excitement.

In the culture of instant reaction, it’s easy to get swept away with the power that Le put on display. This was more than a “lucky punch,” as Le would have you believe. His masterful striking lead to a perfectly timed counter that had Franklin seeing stars. There’s no denying that it was a legitimate victory.

You can, however, question the significance of the win.

The reality is that Cung Le is 40 years old and doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a title shot at this point.

In Franklin, Le was fighting a legend of the UFC. A win over one of the greatest middleweights of all time is a great achievement, but it doesn’t mean what it used to.

Most fans recognize Franklin’s name and can recall that he was a marquee fighter once upon a time, but this is a fighter that hasn’t won back-to-back fights since 2008 when he beat Matt Hamill and Travis Lutter in successive fashion.

Even Franklin’s most recent wins have come against fellow old timers in Wanderlei Silva and Chuck Liddell. Considering his performance against Le, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Franklin retire.

For Le to deserve a title shot anytime soon, he’ll need a few more wins over some fighters that are more relevant—preferably against one of the division’s better grapplers.

Le’s win was impressive, but he in no way, shape or form deserves to jump to the likes of Chris Weidman, Michael Bisping or even Brian Stann in the middleweight pecking order anytime soon.

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Struve vs. Miocic: Fights to get Miocic Back on Track

Rising heavyweight Stipe Miocic suffered the first loss in his MMA career at the hands of Stefan Struve at UFC on Fuel TV.The 30-year-old Miocic was on a tear since entering the UFC, earning three consecutive victories against some pretty stiff competi…

Rising heavyweight Stipe Miocic suffered the first loss in his MMA career at the hands of Stefan Struve at UFC on Fuel TV.

The 30-year-old Miocic was on a tear since entering the UFC, earning three consecutive victories against some pretty stiff competition in Joey Beltran, Phil de Fries and Shane Del Rosario, but he wasn’t quite up to the task of beating a very game Struve.

Despite a great showing in the first round and a good overall effort, Struve was able to put Miocic away in the second round. However, this isn’t all bad for Miocic; sometimes a loss is what a fighter really needs to improve.

There’s no questioning Miocic‘s ability—he’s a well-rounded fighter who has a bright future in the UFC, but he’ll need a win in his next trip out if he wants to salvage the momentum he had going before this loss.

Here are three opponents for Miocic that would offer him a challenge and the opportunity to get back in the mix.

 

Shawn Jordan

Jordan entered the UFC with a bang, defeating heralded prospect Oli Thompson rather soundly by TKO in the second round.

Then he took a huge step up in competition, dropping an ugly bout with Cheick Kongo by unanimous decision.

Miocic took a similar step up in competition and took a loss much like Jordan did, so they find each other in similar situations. Jordan possesses great knockout power and would provide Miocic a winnable matchup that would test his chin.

Sounds like a good matchup for a fighter coming off a knockout loss.

 

Matt Mitrione

If the UFC is able to put together a catchweight bout between Mitrione and Rampage Jackson, disregard everything you are about to read.

If the UFC can’t or doesn’t want to make a match like that happen, then Stipe Miocic and Mitrione would be a nice substitute for fans.

Both guys have flashed some promise as newcomers to the sport and both are probably a little too long in the tooth to be considered “prospects” so why not have the two of them fight it out to see who remains relevant for a while longer?

 

Mike Russow

Russow recently suffered a momentum-killing first round loss to Fabricio Werdum by way of TKO, but before that he was busy pulling upset after upset in the UFC.

The hefty Russow is always fun to watch and willing to exchange in the pocket and should test Miocic‘s chin on occasion. Given that both fighters are well rounded, this fight could go anywhere.

Russow hasn’t been all that active, only fighting once or twice a year since 2009, but if he’s interested in getting into the Octagon soon, Miocic would be an interesting option for him. Both fighters are coming off losses that will set them back, and a win for Miocic would put him back on track to make another step up in competition.

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UFC on Fuel TV 5: Fighters Who Made Biggest Statements in Nottingham

UFC on Fuel 5 offered the opportunity for some of the UFC’s best international prospects to make a statement. Fighters, such as Stefan Struve, did just that.No one on this card is in line for an immediate title shot (or so you would think), but a win o…

UFC on Fuel 5 offered the opportunity for some of the UFC’s best international prospects to make a statement. Fighters, such as Stefan Struve, did just that.

No one on this card is in line for an immediate title shot (or so you would think), but a win on this type of card can usually set up matches on an even bigger stage that will put the winners on Saturday night’s card on a track to contendership.

These are the fighters that made the biggest statement with their victories in England.

 

Gunnar Nelson

Nelson made his highly hyped UFC debut as one of the most exciting European prospects in all of MMA. The Icelandic 24-year-old certainly did not disappoint as he secured a rear-naked choke victory over DaMarques Johnson in a mere three minutes and 34 seconds.

Nelson sports a 10-0 record with seven victories coming by way of submission, so he clearly has submission skills. He also flashed some impressive kicks in the short lived fight, landing a head kick and some leg kicks that set up Nelson’s early takedown.

This contest was fought at a catchweight of 183 pounds after Johnson failed to make the previously agreed upon 175 pound catchweight. Nelson’s size puts him somewhere between welterweight and middleweight, so it will be interesting to see what class his next bout comes from, but either division has been put on notice that Nelson is a legitimate threat.

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Matt Wiman

Paul Sass was heavily favored coming into his bout with Matt Wiman, but was unable to live up to that billing as Wiman effectively turned tables on the Englishman for the first time in his career.

Sass was a perfect 13-0 prior to this fight with 12 of those wins coming by submission. Fighting a middling veteran in his home country, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Sass would wrap this one up rather easily with a submission.

However, Wiman had other plans as it was the TUF 5 veteran that earned his fifth submission victory and ruined Sass’s undefeated mark.

Wiman‘s armbar was a thing of beauty—it earned him Submission of the Night honors and let everyone know that he shouldn’t be written off quite yet.

 

Stefan Struve

Stefan Struve got his first chance to headline a card (albeit a Fuel card), and he didn’t disappoint.

Struve‘s victory over Stipe Miocic shouldn’t be taken lightly—Miocic was favored coming into the fight and was riding a three-fight UFC win streak. Miocic is a well-rounded fighter but Struve proved that he is ready to take on the next level of heavyweights with his second round TKO victory.

Struve‘s chin has been brought into question since his knockout losses to Travis Browne and Roy Nelson, but any questions on his chin should have been silenced tonight as he took plenty of clean shots from Miocic but stayed in the pocket and exchanged with him as well.

With a great display of heart and knockout power, Struve announced he is ready to step up in competition again.


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Jon Jones: Why Bones Is Officially the LeBron James of the UFC

As the UFC’s premier athlete, Jon Jones has been compared to many stars from other sports; but his recent actions have given us the most accurate comparison in the NBA’s LeBron James.Comparing the two, the similarities are striking. Both are …

As the UFC’s premier athlete, Jon Jones has been compared to many stars from other sports; but his recent actions have given us the most accurate comparison in the NBA’s LeBron James.

Comparing the two, the similarities are striking. 

Both are transcendent talents that have defined an era and changed the way their respective sports are played. Both are considered to be physical specimens unlike any athletes we have seen in the past.

Jones and James have given awe-inspiring performances that set a new bar for dominance. Jones, much like James, came into the sport and dominated in ways that we had never seen. Jones’ freakish athleticism and creativity in the Octagon have established himself as the best fighter in the game today.

LeBron has used his freakish size, strength and agility to become his sport’s marquee player from the outset of his career, and the spotlight grows on him each and every year.

The similarities don’t stop on the court/in the Octagon either, as both have experienced a similar arc in terms of public perception.

James entered the league as the uber-talented wonderkid from Akron, Ohio. Going to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers, he single-handedly resurrected a franchise and had fans dreaming of the city’s first professional sports championship since 1964. There was no bigger hero in all of sports than LeBron James to the state of Ohio, and he was loved for it.

Jones didn’t come into his sport with quite as much hype, but he soon made a name for himself. Jones’ early UFC career included a dominant win over Stephan Bonnar and a pair of headline fights against Vladimir Matyushenko and Brandon Vera that catapulted him into title contention.

Then came the most impressive year of Jones’ career. In 2011, Jones made his claim as the best fighter in the world, beating Ryan Bader, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida in short order.

Throughout most of Jones’ rise to prominence, he was the model spokesperson for the UFC. His clean-cut image and diatribes on work ethic, confidence and perseverance were a marketer’s dream.

Then things took a turn for the worse.

On May 19, 2012, Jones was charged with a DWI after wrecking his Bentley into a pole at around 5 a.m.

While James hasn’t had to deal with any criminal charges, he knows a thing or two about tarnishing his reputation and image.

Jones’ decision to not accept a fight with Chael Sonnen on eight days’ notice can best be compared to James’ infamous “decision.”

In both cases, you had two athletes who were doing what they thought was best for their career only to face a huge amount of backlash and scrutiny from media and fans alike.

LeBron chose to shed his label of hometown hero to increase his chances of winning a title—forever altering his legacy along the way. Much like Jones’ backlash, LeBron was blamed for letting down so many people who depended upon him and not having a good sense for what the move would do to his image.

By choosing to not fight Chael Sonnen and in turn force the UFC to cancel an event, Jones has forever altered his legacy. While Jones will be remembered as a champion, this incident will always be linked to his career.

Ultimately, LeBron was able to win his elusive championship with the Heat, which, in some ways, has validated his decision.

As the saying goes, winning can fix just about anything. The question is, can Jones win enough to make fans forget about his decision? 

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UFC on FOX 4 Results: Mike Swick Makes a Huge Statement After Long Absence

The welterweight division better take notice—Mike Swick is finally back.Swick fought for the first time in more than two years and didn’t disappoint in his long-awaited comeback fight, knocking out DaMarques Johnson at the 1:20 mark of the second…

The welterweight division better take notice—Mike Swick is finally back.

Swick fought for the first time in more than two years and didn’t disappoint in his long-awaited comeback fight, knocking out DaMarques Johnson at the 1:20 mark of the second round. Swick, who had lost his last two fights before his two-year hiatus, looked better than ever in his knockout victory.

Many thought that Swick would never return to the Octagon, let alone look as good as he did when he did come back. Swick had been out of the Octagon for over two years, first because of his bout with esophageal spasms, and then, with a left knee injury that derailed his first comeback attempt in 2011.

Any questions about ring rust were quickly put to rest as he immediately went to work on Johnson with his signature boxing combinations.

Swick is a fighter who has always lived up to his nickname “Quick,” and he went right back to what he does best in his fight with Johnson—consistently beating Johnson to the punch in their exchanges and ultimately landing an overhand right that put Johnson away.

The win marked the eighth career-knockout victory and his ninth career victory in the UFC.

After a two-year layoff and two-fight losing streak, Swick was in dire need of a win in his return, and that’s exactly what he got, now, he will need to build on his momentum to see how far his career can go.

The welterweight division is consistently one of the deepest in the organization so Swick has a lot to prove as he continues to work his way up the ranks, but with his elite hand speed as dangerous as ever, Swick is once again a must-see fighter.

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