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Daily Fantasy MMA: Best DraftKings Picks for Holohan vs. Smolka Fight Card

The UFC Fight Night in Dublin card on Saturday has been ripped to shreds by injury, but the DraftKings show must go on. The event has lost a heavyweight scrap between Stipe Miocic and Ben Rothwell because of an injury to the former.
On Wednesday, the h…

On Wednesday, the headline bout was also cancelled as Joe Duffy was scratched from his bout with Dustin Poirier because of a mild concussion, per Tristen Critchfield of Sherdog.com.

The main event is now Paddy Holohan ($9,600) vs. Louis Smolka ($9,800), and DraftKings players would be wise to steer clear of this one.

Aside from the obvious similarities in DK salary, this bout is also less than appealing because of the way the two fighters’ styles mesh. Both men are very comfortable and experienced grapplers. Holohan has captured eight of his nine wins by submission. Smolka has nine professional victories, and four have come by way of submission.

Neither man has ever been stopped, let alone submitted; this has grappling battle written all over it. Neither man is averaging more than 63.3 fantasy points per bout. The fight seems like a prime candidate to end in a decision with very low point totals going to the winner.

Which fighter should anchor your team on this injury-ravaged card? Here are the five I recommend:

Safest Pick

Stevie Ray ($11,000)

In two UFC fights, Stevie Ray has proven to be explosive. He’s scored a knockout win in each of his fights with the promotion. On average, Ray has scored 101.5 fantasy points per bout.

He’s facing France’s rugged Mickael Lebout, who has been stopped just once in his career. That loss came via doctor’s stoppage back in 2013 against Elijah Bokelli in the Supreme League Finals.

While LeBout has proven to be a tough man to halt in his career, he’s had just one fight in the UFC. This will be a major step up for him, and Ray is a hungry fighter looking for a stoppage victory.

The speed advantage will be heavily in his favor, as will the crowd support for the 25-year-old from Scotland. He’ll ride the wave to an early stoppage victory.

Sleeper Pick

Reza Madadi ($8,600)

After a two-year absence from the UFC, Reza Madadi is making his return to the promotion. He has one of the lowest DK salaries in the event, but there’s reason to believe in him.

The last time we saw Madadi, he submitted the highly regarded Michael Johnson via Brabo Choke back in April 2013. On Saturday, he’ll be taking on crowd favorite Norman Parke.

The latter is a tough cookie who will always battle his opponent, but Parke has also struggled to finish opponents in the UFC. He has just one win by stoppage in the promotion. He fights with a ton of emotion, and that causes him to lose advantageous positions at times.

The veteran Madadi has the type of superior ground game that enables him to take advantage of those types of errors. Parke has lost two straight fights, and I’m going to go out on a limb and say the streak hits three.

The two men have a combined 20 wins by submission in their careers, but I believe Madadi’s ground game is a little tighter. He will get the better of Parke during scrambles and parlay one of those opportunities into a rear-naked choke for the win.

The Rest

Why Tom Breese ($10,000)

In his lone UFC bout against Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. in May 2014, Breese racked up 117 fantasy points in his first-round KO. He’s facing Cathal Pendred on Saturday, and Breese has several advantages in this fight.

Pendred is one of the worst strikers in the UFC. Aside from his slow feet and hands, Pendred averages just 2.58 strikes per minute, per FightMetric.com. His defense also leaves a bit to be desired. He stops only 51 percent of the strikes thrown at him.

Breese has the speed and length at 6’3″ to take advantage of Pendred’s subpar athleticism.

Pendred is tough and has a great chin, but Breese should experience great success picking him apart in the stand-up game.

The only chance Pendred has to win is to get the fight to the ground, but even there Breese can handle himself. Six of his eight wins have come by submission.

This one should end in a win for Breese by second-round submission or via a dominant unanimous decision where he racks up fantasy points with strikes.

Why Till

The Darren Till vs. Nicolas Dalby bout is one of the toughest to call. Both men have very good stand-up skills, but there’s something about Till’s quick-twitch athleticism and explosiveness that makes me think he’ll win.

He won his UFC debut in impressive fashion as he scored a KO win over Wendell de Oliveira Marques in May. Dalby also won his first and only UFC bout over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on the same card.

This bout should be entertaining while it lasts. Both men can really crack, but based on what we saw in May and in fights before they arrived in the UFC, Till appears to have an edge in speed. In a fight that should be contested primarily on the feet, Till is the pick to win by TKO or KO.

Why Bush

It’s been more than a year since Bubba Bush last appeared in the Octagon. It was his debut, and it didn’t go so well. He was knocked out in 61 seconds by Kevin Casey in July 2014, but the result was overturned after Casey failed a post-fight drug test for anabolic steroids.

Before that, Bush had made a solid name for himself in the Legacy Fighting Championship. He’d won his last four fights, with two victories coming by submission and the other two by KO.

On Saturday, he will face South African Garreth McLellan. The latter is primarily a submissions fighter whose striking and takedown defense left a lot to be desired in his UFC debut against Bartosz Fabinski in April.

McLellan’s striking defense was at just 22 percent, and his takedown defense was at nine. Bush is a bull who likes to apply pressure.

His strength and athleticism will close the distance against McLellan and lead to a KO victory.

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Bellator 144: Halsey vs. Carvalho Fight Card, TV Schedule and Predictions

Brandon “The Bull” Halsey wants his belt back. The undefeated 29-year-old and former Bellator middleweight champion was stripped of his title when he failed to make weight for his title defense against Kendall Groves at Bellator 137 in May.
Halsey beat…

Halsey beat Groves via TKO, but it was an empty victory.

On Friday night in the main event of Bellator 144 from the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, Halsey will fight to regain his title.

When: Friday, October 23 at 7 p.m. (ET) for prelims and 9 p.m. (ET) for main card

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut

TV: Spike TV

Live Stream: Spike.com for prelims only

He’ll face tough Brazilian Rafael Carvalho. Originally, the rematch between Eduardo Dantas and Marcos Galvao was the headline bout, but when the former was injured, the bout was cancelled. Per his Instagram account, Halsey was eager to see his bout claim main event status.

Halsey is a hulking middleweight who stands 6’0″ and can strike with power. As hard as he can punch, it’s his wrestling and submissions that make him so fierce. His takedowns are devastating, and his ground-and-pound is relentless.

Carvalho stands 6’3″, so he’ll have a three-inch height advantage. He’s also an excellent striker.

His record stands at 11-1, with nine of those wins coming by KO/TKO. If he can keep the fight standing, he has a great chance to win. That’s much easier said than done against Halsey, though. The former champion puts a lot of pressure on his opponents, and he’s not exactly easy to hit.

While the Brazilian has an edge when it comes to striking and length, it won’t be enough to keep Halsey off him. At some point, this fight will go to the ground, and that’s where Halsey always wins. He will wear Carvalho down and regain the belt with a TKO finish.

Ward Will Smoke Olson

Dennis Olson is a veteran of 24 professional MMA bouts, but his experience won’t do him much good Friday. He will face the dynamic Brennan Ward in a welterweight fight the former can’t win.

Matthew Holt of CG Analytics doesn’t give Olson much of a chance to win either:

Ward is one of the most explosive strikers in Bellator, and he’s facing a guy who has been stopped four times via strikes—including the last time out against Paul Daley in July. The speed and power advantage Ward will carry into this bout will be the difference.

It’ll be a shock if this one makes it out of the first round.

Yamauchi’s Ground Game Will Be Superior

In a battle between Japanese featherweights, expect Bellator veteran Goiti Yamauchi to prevail over Isao Kobayashi. Yamauchi’s submission game is elite.

The 22-year-old is 5-1 in Bellator and 18-2 overall. Of his 18 wins, 14 have come by way of submission. His preference appears to be the rear-naked choke, as he’s used that maneuver to finish off 10 of his opponents.

Kobayashi will be the 11th.

He has a tendency to get wild—especially during ground scrambles. That will leave his neck open to the opportunistic and skilled Yamauchi. The end result will be another submission victory for the up-and-coming young featherweight.

MVP Will Score Another Quick KO

Welterweight contender Michael “Venom” Page is part Anderson Silva and part Conor McGregor, only he hasn’t fought major competition as of yet in his career. To his credit, he’s made the fighters he has faced look like amateurs in the cage with him.

After Friday, you can add Charlie Ontiveros’ name to that list. He’s making his Bellator debut after nine fights in the Legacy Fighting Championship. Athletically, Page is on another level. His speed, length and one-strike KO power will devastate Ontiveros.

He’s never faced a fighter on Page’s level, and it won’t take long for that to show. Page and Ward may be on a collision course somewhere down the line. That’ll be fun if it comes to fruition. For now, we’ll have to settle for seeing the two of them shine on the same card.

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Glory Kickboxing 24: Denver Fight Card, TV Schedule and Predictions

The exciting Joe “Stitch ‘Em Up” Schilling will step back into a Glory kickboxing ring on Friday, October 9, in Denver, Colorado, in the main event of Glory 24. Schilling will be facing Jason Wilnis in what could prove to be an explosive bout.
Schillin…

Schilling—who also competes in Bellator MMA—has a professional kickboxing record of 19-6 with a 5-2 mark in Glory.

He has gained fame for his explosive power and his thrilling fighting style. Wilnis is much more of a grinder. He has only earned a knockout victory in seven of his 25 wins. This is obviously a contrast of styles. Those types of fights can make for the most interesting duels in combat sports.

When: Friday, October 9, at 9 p.m. ET

TV: Spike TV

These two are both in search of a higher standing in the Glory middleweight division.

Aside from that tangible goal, Schilling and Wilnis also fight to earn the respect of their peers. Schilling talked about this motivation in his Glory profile: “There’s a lot of guys on the international circuit that I’ve wanted to fight for some time, and I’ve not been able to get those fights. Now we are all in Glory together so those fights can happen at last. For me, it’s about getting that respect in the international kickboxing world.”

Schilling fights with great heart whether he’s in an MMA cage or a kickboxing ring. That’s his appeal and the reason he has the main event spot in Denver. Schilling loves to bring pressure, and you can bet he’ll pursue the KO finish against Wilnis. The latter’s lack of power will only serve as encouragement for Schilling to stalk him in search of the finish.

Bet on Schilling getting it sometime in the second round.

Aside from the Schilling-Wilnis bout, there’s also an interesting middleweight scrap and a heavyweight tournament that includes Wilnis‘ older brother, Jahfarr.

Here’s a look at the entire card with predictions for each of the televised bouts.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Wayne Barrett

Both Dustin Jacoby and Wayne Barrett are KO artists. Each has a KO percentage of at least 80. With so much power in this middleweight clash, it would be a surprise to see it go the distance.

Jacoby surprised many in the kickboxing community when he slugged his way through the middleweight tournament at Glory 23 in Las Vegas. Jacoby scored KO wins over Casey Greene and Ariel Sepulveda on that evening in Sin City and put himself on the map in the division.

Riding a hot streak, Jacoby will again use his power and aggression to earn a victory over Barrett. After three straight KO wins, Jacoby will be in position to make a serious jump in the rankings. He’s currently ranked 10th, and Barrett is fourth.

A win should vault him into or near the top five.

The Heavyweight Tournament

In one of the bouts, two giants will square off for the right to move on to the finals. Both Benjamin Adegbuyi and Mladen Brestovac stand 6’6″. Each has exceptional power, with a combined 46 KOs in 67 professional fights.

Brestovac has the experience, but Adegbuyi proved his mettle in his last bout. While he came up short against Glory heavyweight champion Rico Verhoeven, Adegbuyi did go the distance despite being beat to the punch throughout the fight.

The loss snapped his three-fight win streak in Glory, but it did prove he has a heck of a chin and great resolve. Adegbuyi has been putting in some serious work in a star-studded training camp in the meantime. You’d think he’s picked up some valuable pugilistic tips from the group pictured in this image from Kickboxing Planet:

Brestovac doesn’t have the speed or fluidity that Verhoeven possesses. Look for Adegbuyi to get back on the winning track with a KO win over Brestovac.

In the second heavyweight clash, the powerful Ben Edwards takes on Jahfarr Wilnis in what will prove to be a quick bout. Edwards is one of the more powerful heavyweights in Glory, and Wilnis‘ chin looked suspect against Brestovac back in 2014 when he was knocked out in his last bout in the promotion.

Edwards is my pick to send Wilnis reeling again in another bout that ends in a KO.

In the final, Adegbuyi will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage and a slight edge in speed. Using his length and quickness to keep a less than lean Edwards at bay, Adegbuyi will win a decision and the heavyweight tournament.

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UFC 192 Results: Winners and Scorecards from Cormier vs. Gustafsson Fight Card

UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier retained his title by split decision, but it wasn’t easy.
Whenever Alexander Gustafsson gets a shot at the UFC light heavyweight championship, the fight turns into an instant classic. After pushing then-ch…

UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier retained his title by split decision, but it wasn’t easy.

Whenever Alexander Gustafsson gets a shot at the UFC light heavyweight championship, the fight turns into an instant classic. After pushing then-champion Jon “Bones” Jones to his limit back in 2013, Gustafsson did the same thing to Cormier on Saturday night in the main event of UFC 192 in Houston.

The UFC acknowledged Cormier’s hard-fought win:

Praise didn’t just come from the promotion. Former basketball players such as Stacey King and iconic MMA websites such as Sherdog.com all admired the action:

In the first round, Cormier almost immediately showed his superiority in the area of wrestling. He secured one of his patented WWE-like bodyslams on Gustafsson to set the tone. For a while, we’ve been seeing the highlight of Cormier slamming Dan Henderson. This one might replace that slam moving forward as the head of the Cormier mixtape.

In the second and third rounds, Gustafsson began to come on, but it seemed like the champion was still controlling the rounds as he did great work out of the clinch with uppercuts. It was beginning to look as though Cormier would run away with the fight until Gustafsson tagged him with a titanic knee to the face in the third round.

You could immediately see Cormier grimace as he fell to the canvas. Gustafsson pounced and pounded the champion with punches, but Cormier showed an amazing chin and resolve as he recovered relatively quickly from such a hard shot.

Still, that is the moment Gustafsson will be kicking himself for in the months to come. He had Cormier as close to finished as he could get without closing the deal, but Gustafsson let him off the hook. Cormier would finish strong in competitive Rounds 4 and 5 to earn the split decision (48-47, 47-48, 49-46).

After the fight was over, Cormier gave it up for Gustafsson:

Cormier outlanded Gustafsson 140-120 in significant strikes, and both fighters secured a takedown. Cormier also spent three minutes, 32 seconds in top control compared, compared to 1:12 for Gustafsson, per UFC.com. While the fight was close, the numbers support the overall decision.

Co-Main Event

Because Johny Hendricks had to pull out of his fight with Tyron Woodley, per Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports, the Ryan Bader-Rashad Evans bout became the co-main event—and it wasn’t a good fight.

Evans was coming back from a nearly two-year layoff, and it showed. He was slow to get off, and he couldn’t close the distance against a surprisingly nimble and smooth Bader. Some, such as Fox Sports analysts Brian Stann and Dominick Cruz, predicted on the pre-event show that Bader might be unnerved by Evans’ pre-fight trash talk.

That didn’t prove true, as Bader calmly neutralized anything Evans wanted to accomplish in the Octagon. That’s why he won all three rounds on all three judges’ scorecards.

Evans landed just 25 significant strikes, while Bader landed a modest 52. In a word, this fight was forgettable.

Explosive Knockouts and Breakout Performances

Super Sage

The biggest future star on the card put in some quick work during the UFC Fight Pass prelims.

Sage Northcutt knows how to make a first impression. The 19-year-old phenom needed just 57 seconds to dispose of Francisco Trevino in his UFC debut. The problems for Trevino began when he slipped on a kick attempt.

It appeared as though he was stunned by his fall, and Northcutt wasted no time applying pressure. He went straight in with a series of punches. A hard left put Trevino down, and Northcutt pounded him out the rest of the way until referee Herb Dean called a halt to the bout. The UFC shared the finish with this tweet:

Bleacher Report’s Jeremy Botter predicted this will be the last time we see Northcutt so early in a pay-per-view:

Northcutt has everything required to become the face of the UFC. That may sound like an overstatement, but if you’ve ever seen this kid fight or in an interview, his star power is apparent.

He looks like he’s in a boy band but fights with the ferocity of a young Vitor Belfort. Keep an eye on him. He’s special.

Mashing Martins

Adriano Martins could put out an instructional video on how to defeat up-and-coming Russian lightweights in the UFC. He’s beginning to make a habit out of it.

In his last fight, Martins defeated Rustam Khabilov via split decision back in February. On Saturday night, Martins gave the judges some time off. In the first round. a hard right hand caught Islam Makhachev square on the chin to bring on one of the night’s best knockout moments.

The shot dropped Makhachev in a heap, and the fight was quickly stopped. Here’s a look at the sequence from Fox Sports UFC:

Martins has earned some attention and consideration for a top-15 ranking. He’s 4-1 in the UFC, with three finishes. The 32-year-old Brazilian has a well-rounded game, and he could be on the fast track to title contention in a couple of years.

Tumenov the Terminator

We knew the Albert Tumenov-Alan Jouban fight could be explosive, and the impressive Russian gave us what we expected.

It took just two minutes for Tumenov to vanquish Jouban. Hard combinations put Jouban against the cage, and a vicious right hand put him down for good. The fight was stopped as he wobbled to the floor. He contested, but he could barely stand as he was complaining.

Tumenov is a destructive force who will be a major issue in the welterweight division.

Best of the Rest

The Thug Does Work

Rose “Thug” Namajunas took advantage of a tactical error by Angela “Overkill” Hill en route to a first-round submission victory. Namajunas took Hill’s back as the latter showed some sloppy grappling defense early in the bout.

Hill rose to her feet without protecting her neck, and Namajunas sunk in the deep rear-naked choke. Hill nearly went out under the pressure of the hold. The fight was halted, and Namajunas was awarded the victory.

Fox Sports UFC shared the finish:

Namajunas has to be considered a serious contender for the UFC women’s strawweight championship. She’s known for her striking, but she proved Saturday that her submission game is solid as well.

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Daily Fantasy MMA: DraftKings Picks for Cormier vs. Gustafsson UFC 192 Card

The main event for UFC 192 on Saturday is light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier vs. Alexander Gustafsson. The fight has the potential to be a great scrap, and for what it’s worth, Cormier is my pick to win. That said, DraftKings players would …

Cormier’s salary is a whopping $11,000, which will drastically handicap your ability to fill out the rest of your lineup with winners. Gustafsson has a shot to win—or at least go the distance. Either of those scenarios would be bad for DraftKings players who take Cormier.

The best selection for the UFC 192 card is Sage Northcutt ($10,500). The dynamic 19-year-old lightweight has a bright future and a fantasy-friendly opponent in front of him for his UFC debut.

Francisco Trevino is a rugged competitor who will oblige Northcutt if he wants to stand and trade. If the fight goes to the ground, Trevino does defend chokes well, but he can be sloppy with his positioning. Against a big and strong young fighter like Northcutt, that could be the difference between surviving a scrum on the mat and being stopped with vicious ground-and-pound.

Northcutt is a dynamic striker who has captured three of his five wins by knockout. The other two wins came by way of submission. No fighter has gone the distance with him as of yet, and Trevino won’t be the first.

The takedown might be the best approach for Northcutt in this one. Trevino has only stopped 43 percent of takedown attempts in the UFC. There’s the potential for a slip-up from Northcutt as he tries hard to impress in his debut, but his talent level and versatility will shine through and rack up fantasy points.

Here’s a look at the rest of the ideal lineup for UFC 192.

Viktor Pesta ($10,000)

Derrick Lewis is a one-trick pony and made to order for Viktor Pesta. Lewis is looking to land a massive right hand in the first two minutes of a fight. If he doesn’t connect, his chances of winning are greatly reduced.

He has 12 wins in his MMA career, with six of them by first-round KO. Two of his three wins in the UFC have come from strikes in the first frame. Stamina is the main issue with Lewis, and that’s not a problem for Pesta.

The 25-year-old from the Czech Republic brings a diverse skill set into the Octagon. He has seven stoppages (four KOs, three submissions) in his 11 professional fights. While he can thump with his hands, he sets up almost everything with the takedown.

While he hasn’t been accurate in that regard just yet in the UFC (22 percent), that should change against Lewis, who has only stopped 50 percent of the takedown attempts against him.

Before the clinch or a shot takes place, Pesta may have to prove himself momentarily on the feet. Lewis has major power, so Pesta will have to be careful. However, Lewis’ defense has been non-existent (36 percent strike defense).

He’s also been knocked out twice (Shawn Jordan and Matt Mitrione) in just over a year. There are just too many reasons to like Pesta in this fight. He wins and gets the finish within the first two rounds—one way or the other.

Islam Makhachev ($9,700)

The fight between Islam Makhachev and Adriano Martins is a toss-up as both fighters are slotted at $9,700. This is a classic clash of styles as Makhachev is similar to his countryman and teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov. Makhachev wants to take his opponents down, but that may not be so easy against Martins.

The Brazilian has 80 percent takedown defense in his UFC career. In Martins’ last fight, he took on another of Makhachev’s countrymen, Rustam Khabilov.

Martins was able to stuff all four of Khabilov’s attempts to take him down. In fact, he countered by securing all four of his own takedowns. That gives reason to believe in Martins a bit in this fight, and it explains why the salaries are so close. Something has to give in this area, as there’s seemingly no way Makhachev is going to abandon his sambo background.

Makhachev is a different animal than Khabilov. The latter prefers to strike and hasn’t finished a fight via submission in over five years. Makhachev’s last three wins have come by submission, and his takedown accuracy is better than Khabilov’s (60 percent to 43).

To put it plainly, Martins is facing the next level of the fearsome Russian lightweight trifecta (Khabilov, Makhachev and Nurmagomedov), and we’ll be able to tell the difference on Saturday.

Makhachev will win a highly competitive bout via third-round submission.

Julianna Pena ($10,700)

Jessica Eye is one tough cookie, but she will crumble under the pressure, grappling prowess and determination that Julianna “The Venezuelan Vixen” Pena brings into the Octagon.

Pena is a whirlwind and has been a DraftKings player’s dreams in her two UFC fights by averaging a whopping 124 fantasy points per fight. Eye has only stopped 57 percent of the takedowns attempted against her, and most of her opponents have been inferior to Pena when it comes to grappling.

In Pena’s two UFC bouts, she’s a perfect 3-for-3 in takedowns. She could have more, but once she gets opponents to the mat, they generally don’t get back to their feet.

Bank on a first- or second-round stoppage win for The Venezuelan Vixen.

Alan Jouban ($9,100)

There has to be one lower-salaried pick on any DraftKings UFC contest, and Alan Jouban is the one for this event. He faces another promising young Russian fighter in Albert Tumenov. Unlike Makhachev and Nurmagomedov, Tumenov likes to get the job done standing as opposed to leaning on a grappling-based discipline.

Jouban is also primarily a striker—and a dynamic one at that. His fights are often among the most exciting when he performs. Both men attempt less than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of Octagon action.

If this fight is sounding like a potential classic stand-up scrap to you, then we’re on the same page here. In that type of fight, things can go either way, but Jouban has demonstrated resolve and toughness that will aid him in this fight. He’s quicker and more explosive than Tumenov, and in this matchup, those qualities should make the difference.

Jouban has already won two Fight of the Night bonuses for his work against Matt Dwyer and Seth Baczynski. Another thrilling win is in the cards for him on Saturday.

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UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More

UFC light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier is on a mission to validate himself as a legitimate titleholder in the promotion. He can’t complete that task without beating Jon “Bones” Jones in a rematch somewhere down the line, but he can move closer to that potential scrap by defending his title against Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson on Saturday night in Houston in the main event of UFC 192.

Before Jones was stripped of the title and Cormier beat Anthony “Rumble” Johnson for the vacated strap in May, DC and Gustafsson had given Bones his most competitive fights. Now the two meet in the Octagon in a bout that will likely determine the man who gets to defend the title against Jones when and if he returns to the sport as expected in 2016.

Per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting, Cormier, Rashad Evans and others discussed Jones’ re-insertion into the light heavyweight title picture.

The Cormier-Gustafsson title fight will cap off what looks like a solid lineup of intriguing and potentially exciting fights. Here’s the full card with viewing information and predictions for each bout. Check out the upset specials just below the table.

Upset Specials

Overkill Will Outlast Overrated Namajunas

Per Odds Shark, Rose Namajunas is listed as a minus-350 favorite over Angela “Overkill” Hill. Namajunas gained some respect during her time in The Ultimate Fighter 20 as she advanced to the final and lost to eventual champion Carla Esparza.

Namajunas has some talent and a mean streak, but she has shrunk when the lights have come on. Before losing to Esparza in December 2014, she dropped a decision to Tecia Torres when the two were in Invicta in July 2013.

Namajunas is beatable—especially on this level. Hill is a tireless worker and a relentless striker. She has a strong background in kickboxing and muay thai. This explains why her striking is solid. The key for her will be to keep the fight standing. That may not be too difficult as Namajunas prefers to strike as well.

She’s only attempted 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes of action. That approach will play into Hill’s hands. Despite Las Vegas’ lack of belief in Hill, I’m still tabbing her as the mildly surprising winner via unanimous decision.

Jouban Will Stop Tumenov in Fight of the Night

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen. Alan Jouban vs. Albert Tumenov has the potential to be the best fight of the night. Both of these men love to finish with strikes. Neither man attempts more than 0.42 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Jouban is quicker and throws more kicks. However, Tumenov is strong and aggressive; if he can get his opponents into ground-and-pound situations, he’s in a perfect space. Expect both men to have their moments throughout the bout, but Jouban’s edge in athleticism will be the difference as he scores a third-round TKO.

The Big Fights

Evans Will Edge Bader

What happens when two world-class wrestlers meet in the Octagon? More than likely, the fighter with the better striking game will gain the advantage. In this case, that would be Rashad Evans. He has fast hands and good snap on his punches inside, though he is dealing with a long layoff after battling a series of injuries.

Evans last fought almost two years ago when he stopped Chael Sonnen with punches in November 2013. Despite a near two-year layoff, Evans will prove to be too quick for Bader when it comes to the stand-up battle.

Bader will secure more takedowns, and that’ll make the judges’ decision difficult, but Evans will escape with the split-decision victory.

Hendricks Too Good for Woodley

Tyron Woodley has a major bone to pick with Johny Hendricks. The two met on the collegiate wrestling mat when Hendricks was at Oklahoma State and Woodley attended the University of Missouri. The two had a bitter battle in the Big 12 tournament, but Hendricks prevailed.

Woodley hasn’t quite gotten over that loss, and he’d love to avenge it at UFC 192. Unfortunately for him, Hendricks’ wrestling, chin and pursuit are just too good for Woodley.

Few—if any—welterweights are as explosive as Woodley, but as quick and powerful as he is, he doesn’t throw a lot of strikes. He lands 2.56 strikes per minute in the Octagon with 50 percent accuracy.

He also has a tendency to fight cautiously against elite opponents. Because he’s amped to face and beat Hendricks, it’ll only tighten him up even more. That’s going to lead to a relatively easy win for Hendricks via third-round submission or unanimous decision.

Cormier Will Break Gustafsson

Gustafsson’s loss to Anthony “Rumble” Johnson was a career-changing defeat. While the Swede had lost before, he’d never been manhandled quite like that. Because of the psychological effect that could still linger from that fight, Gustafsson may not have the same resolve he once did.

Cormier is a machine fueled by motivation to validate himself as champion. He’ll break Gustafsson and finish him off with a TKO or submission in the second round.

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