Author: Brian Mazique

Size discrimination may prevent some MMA fans from appreciating the UFC 191 main event rematch between flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and John “The Magician” Dodson. However, hardcore fans know they are in for elite-level MMA from two of the fastest and most skilled fighters in the sport.

Johnson took a unanimous-decision victory over Dodson when the two first met back in March 2013. Since then, he has gone on to establish himself as arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Dodson has won three fights in a row, and he recently returned to action after suffering a torn ACL in July 2014.

Both men weighed in successfully Friday, with Johnson checking in at 124.5 and Dodson at 125. Here’s a look at the weigh-in and a quick interview with both men, via Fox Sports UFC on Twitter:

All nine of MMA Junkie’s staff of experts believe Johnson will retain his title. What does he need to do to notch another victory? What does Dodson need to do to change the outcome? Read on to find out.

Dodson’s Keys to Victory

Stay off the Ground

Dodson’s best chance to win is in the stand-up game. If the fight goes to the ground, he’ll be at a clear disadvantage. Johnson’s transitions on the mat are the best in the division and among the elite in the sport.

Dodson’s game is to land with his quick and explosive strikes. To play to this strength, he must control distance and stay out of the champion’s grasp.

Land Big Shots Early

In their first fight, Dodson knocked Johnson down and landed a few other big shots that got the champion’s attention. He needs to again create that doubt in the champion’s mind by landing another big strike early in the fight.

If Dodson can connect, he could gain a psychological advantage in the fight—if he doesn’t finish with another opportunity to put Johnson away.

Conserve Energy

Dodson seemed to gas a bit in the first fight. He’s a naturally hyper guy who expends tons of energy. He usually looks great in three-rounders, but he’s lost both of the five-round fights in his career.

Aside from dropping the decision to Johnson in 2013, Dodson also lost a split decision to Pat Runez in 2009. Johnson doesn’t have any issues with stamina, and he’s proved he can perform in championship matches.

The champion is 6-1 in his fights that have either gone into the fifth round or lasted the distance. If Dodson can’t get Johnson out early, his chances of winning dramatically decrease. To try and combat this, he has to leave something in the tank for the championship rounds.

Johnson’s Keys to Victory

Counter KO Swings with Takedowns

Dodson will be looking for the home run because of the aforementioned dynamics. Johnson must be ready to slip—which is something he does as well as any fighter—and then change levels to shoot for the takedown.

The champion will have to pick his spots. Dodson’s takedown defense is at 88 percent, per FightMetric. Catching him immediately after the strike misses its mark would be ideal. If Johnson can get Dodson to the ground, he may remain there for the rest of the round—or until the champion submits him.

Dodson is a relatively small threat on the ground. He has just two submission wins in his career, and both came against the same guy, Zac White, in 2004 and 2007.

Be Patient

There’s no need for Johnson to rush. When it comes to winning rounds, he appears to understand that concept a little better than Dodson does. Fast and steady wins the race for Johnson. That means that while speed will always be a major component of his success, he doesn’t need to rush to a result.

If he takes his time, the win will come because he’s the more well-rounded fighter.

Fighter record references per Sherdog.

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John “The Magician” Dodson pushed Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson to the brink when the two men met in March 2013, but he couldn’t finish off the UFC flyweight champion when he had him hurt. In turn, Johnson was able to grind out a unanimous-decision win en route to what is now one of the most impressive championship runs in UFC history.

On Saturday in the main event of UFC 191, Johnson and Dodson will renew acquaintances. The action might look a little different, but Johnson will again prevail. When it comes to pure speed, Dodson is the only man in the UFC who can match Johnson. That’s why this fight can go either way while on the feet.

That’s also why Johnson will likely look to take it to the ground as soon as possible. Mighty Mouse is a far superior wrestler, and he could have his way there late in the fight. As physically talented as Johnson is, his most underrated skill is his fight IQ.

That’s how he’ll beat Dodson in the rematch. He’ll mix in a few striking attempts only to set up the takedowns. He’ll use this strategy to wear down and discourage his opponent. Late in the fight, Johnson will take advantage of a fatigued challenger and win the bout via submission in the fourth round.

Here’s a look at the full card, predictions and odds.

Rumble Will Flatten Manuwa

If Jimi Manuwa stays true to his normal approach in the Octagon, Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is going to knock him out. Based on Manuwa‘s recent comments, there’s no reason to think he’ll do anything more than attempt to stand and strike with Johnson.

Per Elias Cepeda of FoxSports.com, the man they call the “Poster Boy” said: 

No one is going to bully me in the cage. I will not be bullied. I will not step back—it is not who I am. We are going to be two trains meeting in the middle of the cage. Let’s see who gets pushed back. I’m not the one who is going to take a step backward.

There may not be a light heavyweight in the world who can stand right in front of Johnson and beat him. Jon Jones is daring and good enough to try, but I’d even doubt Bones’ chances to win that style of fight against Johnson. Rumble has five losses in his career and four of them have come by rear-naked choke.

Only accomplished wrestlers like Daniel Cormier and Josh Koscheck have been able to put Johnson on the mat and in position to choke him out.

Manuwa has yet to display the wrestling skills he’ll need to take Johnson down, so we have to believe his come-forward, stand-your-ground approach is sincere.

It won’t be a successful strategy, as Johnson will likely knock him out in the first round.

Mir Will Continue to Roll

Both Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski come into their co-main event scrap on a roll. Mir has won two fights in a row and Arlovski has been victorious in his last three bouts in the UFC.

Mir will be the only one on an unbeaten streak when this fight is over. Stylistically, this isn’t a good fight for Arlovski. Mir’s striking is improved, and he’s sturdy. He’s more apt to be able to take a shot from Arlovski and recover.

Ideally, Mir would love to take the fight to the mat. He’s arguably the best heavyweight submission fighter in the history of the UFC. I predict he’ll take Arlovski down in the second round and force him to tap from an arm bar, kimura or Americana.

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John “The Magician” Dodson will get his second shot at dethroning UFC flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson on Saturday night at UFC 191 in Las Vegas.

The fight headlines a card that also features an important light heavyweight scrap between Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and Jimi “Poster Boy” Manuwa and a suddenly relevant throwback heavyweight scrap between Andrei “The Pit Bull” Arlovski and Frank Mir.

Here’s a look at the complete card with predictions and viewing information.

Looking to Make the Mouse Disappear

Dodson came the closest to beating Johnson of any of the champion’s previous foes at flyweight when the two met in January 2013. Since then, Dodson has battled injuries and fought just three times—though he’s won them all.

Things have gone even better for Johnson. He’s successfully defended his title five times since beating Dodson by unanimous decision, and he’s become arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. Johnson has had some memorable fights since, but people are still talking about the classic fight with Dodson.

The Magician was able to stun Johnson and land significant strikes early in the fight. That’s something no other fighter has been able to do to the champion at flyweight. Johnson ultimately won based on his wrestling and technical acumen, but it was a struggle. Here’s how Sherdog.com’s Mike Sloan described Johnson and Dodson’s first fight: 

Dodson didn’t make too many mistakes in his initial battle with Johnson because the fight wound up being one of the most competitive, most exciting fights the sport of MMA had witnessed in years. It was a perfect storm of two of the best fighters in their division, in their physical primes, fighting tooth and nail for something only one man can have.

What’s in store for the fighters and the fans this time around? Much of the same as it pertains to action. Johnson and Dodson are two of the sport’s most amazing athletes. The fight will again be fought at a breakneck pace. The difference in this bout will be Johnson’s approach.

The champion will look to take the fight to the ground quicker. He’s still the much better wrestler of the two, and he’s gotten even better than he was when the two men initially fought. Johnson will win again, but this time he’ll finish Dodson with a late-round submission that solidifies him as the sport’s best fighter.

Rumble Will Rip the Poster

You should never attempt to strike with Rumble Johnson. He’s too explosive and powerful. Unfortunately, Manuwa seems intent upon standing and fighting on Saturday night.

Per Elias Cepeda of FoxSports.com, Manuwa said: “No one is going to bully me in the cage. I will not be bullied. I will not step back—it is not who I am. We are going to be two trains meeting in the middle of the cage. Let’s see who gets pushed back. I’m not the one who is going to take a step backwards.”

It’s going to be a short fight.

Before Daniel Cormier reminded us that Johnson can still be taken down and submitted by skilled wrestlers, Rumble had won nine straight fights. Six of those wins came via knockout. Johnson has five losses in his career. Four of them have come by rear-naked choke. The proper approach to beating him seems obvious.

Manuwa has just one loss in his career, and that came via TKO to Alexander Gustafsson in March 2014. But Manuwa doesn’t appear to have the wrestling skills or the will to take advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses. He will attempt to stand and defeat Johnson, but he’ll be annihilated in the first round.

The Dog Trainer

Arlovski has found a second life in the UFC by scoring controversial and thrilling victories since returning to the promotion. Arlovski was given a gift split-decision victory over Brendan Schaub in June 2014. He followed that win up with two exciting KO victories over Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Travis Browne.

Mir has gone through a similar resurgence, as he appeared to be on his last leg in the UFC before scoring back-to-back KO wins over Silva and Todd Duffee. He had lost four fights in a row before his current two-fight winning streak.

Look for Mir to continue his rebirth. Arlovski is a brawler who is at his best when the fight is being contested at a manic pace. Mir has shown he can win that type of fight, but the submissions specialist is even better if he can get the fight to the ground.

Mir will work to keep this fight at the pace he needs. He’ll take Arlovski down somewhere in the second round and submit him with an arm hold to grab his third straight victory.

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