Author: Brian Mazique

The last time Erik “New Breed” Koch was in the Octagon, he was on the wrong side of an exciting but brutal finish. At UFC 164, Koch is my pick to win in a fight that I’m predicting will win Fight of the Night. Koch was viciously stopped with downward elbows by Ricardo Llamas at UFC on Fox 6 in January.

He makes his return against another top-notch featherweight in Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier in Milwaukee, Wis. on Saturday night. 

Fights that feature contrasting styles can be snoozers or thrilling and gutsy chess matches. This one should be the latter. Koch is a well-rounded fighter with a strong Taekwondo background, while Poirier is an accomplished Brazlilian Jiu Jitsu artist. Though Poirier‘s base discipline makes him comfortable on the ground, Koch has shown consistent advancement in that area.

Despite the fact that Llamas’ elbows found their mark while Koch was on his back, New Breed has seven submission wins to his credit. 

This doesn’t mean Koch is going to out-grapple Poirier, but it should mean he’s solid enough on the ground to keep himself out of trouble there. If this bout takes place in standup, Koch’s speed and dynamic striking ability give him the edge.

Expect this one to go into the third round and for Koch to score a late KO in the night’s best fight.

Now, who’s going to score an even more impressive KO win?

 

Ben Rothwell over Brandon Vera: KO of the Night

I’m not on the Brandon Vera hype train. Quite honestly, I never have been. Vera’s career has been more about promise than production. He’s only 12-6 and even though he’s faced stars like Jon Jones, Frank Mir, Fabricio Werdum and Randy Couture, he’s only defeated Mir, and that was in 2006.

Adding to that, Vera is taking on Rothwell as a heavyweight. This will be his first heavyweight bout since 2008. At 35, it seems time is winding up on his career.

Rothwell is bigger, stronger and an underrated grappler. He has a KO of the Night to his credit against Brendan Schaub at UFC 145. I predict he’ll pick up his second by stopping Vera.

 

Nikita Krylov over Soa Palelei: Submission of the Night

Palelei is a devastating puncher, but he’ll be vulnerable if the fight extends beyond the first round. Expect Palelei to come out like gangbusters—which is appropriate considering Krylov‘s nickname is Al Capone—but the 21-year-old Russian is skilled and tough. Krylov has already earned 10 submission wins in his career. 

He’ll curtail this initial attempt and take the big Australian to deep waters and drain his strength. Fatigue will play a role, and ultimately Palelei will be made to submit.

 

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Ben Rothwell dropped his last fight, but on Saturday, he’s going to drop Brandon Vera. A KO victory for Rothwell is just one of my predictions for the main card for UFC 164. The event takes place at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wis., not far from Rothwell‘s hometown of Kenosha, Wis.

A presumably large contingent of fans isn’t all Rothwell has going for him in this bout. Big Ben is by far the better striker and Vera has shown the vulnerability to the KO in his career. Three of his six losses have come in that fashion. Both men are accomplished grapplers, but the heavyweights tend to stand and trade primarily.

That’s bad news for Vera.

This is his first heavyweight bout since 2008 when he was stopped by Fabricio Werdum at UFC 85. He could have difficulty adjusting to the increase in weight from 205 pounds. Besides that, Vera’s career has been heavy on promise, but light on accomplishment. He’s always been talented, but injuries and other setbacks, per Dann Stupp of MMA Junkie, have resulted in underachievement.

Though he’s faced the likes of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Jon Jones, Randy Couture, Werdum, Tim Sylvia, Keith Jardine and Frank Mir in his career, he’s only defeated Mir and that was seven years ago.

At 35 years old, Vera is still hanging on, but Rothwell may be the man to cut the rope. Rothwell was submitted in his last fight by Gabriel Gonzaga, but expect to see him rebound with an impressive KO win on Saturday.

Here’s my prediction on two other fighters, who will join Rothwell in redeeming themselves after losses in their previous bout.

 

Erik Koch Will Best Dustin Poirier

Both Koch and Poirier are excellent young fighters, but Koch has an edge in this bout. Despite the brutal loss he suffered at the hands of Ricardo Llamas at UFC on Fox 6, Koch has that special kind of explosiveness.

In most fights, Poirier would have the clear advantage on the ground with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu prowess, but Koch has put in noticeable work on his ground game. The 24-year-old has seven submission victories to his credit. He should be able to handle himself there and/or stuff Poirier‘s takedown attempts enough to induce a bout fought predominantly standing.

This is where Koch will have the upper hand. He’s a superior athlete and a more dynamic striker. That will result in a huge win over another top-notch featherweight.

 

Chico Camus Will Not Submit to Kyung Ho Kang

The South Korean fighter known as “Typhoon” has one realistic chance to beat Camus and that is by submission. Camus will be more than prepared for Kang‘s attempts to take the fight to the ground, though.

After losing his last fight to Dustin Kimura via Rear-Naked Choke (Camus’ first-ever loss via submission) guarding against Kang‘s grappling attempts will undoubtedly be at the forefront of Camus’ mind.

Kang can’t maintain the work rate or pace Camus can produce. Though the latter doesn’t have destructive power, he should be able to use his quickness to land more significant strikes and win by decision.

 

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The rematch is finally here. UFC lightweight champion Benson “Smooth” Henderson will have the opportunity to avenge one of only two losses in his mixed martial arts career. He faces Anthony “Showtime” Pettis at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in the challenger’s hometown, Milwaukee, Wis. on Saturday.

The super rematch is the main event of UFC 164. Perhaps the most iconic move in the history of mixed martial arts in the United States took place in their first meeting. 

Pettis’ Showtime kick is the type of maneuver that gets kids and casual fans to take notice and possibly evolve into hardcore followers of the sport. Besides the fact that this is a battle between two of the best fighters in the world, there is something very cool about this matchup.

Pettis has as much swag as any fighter in the world. We have already seen the types of exciting strikes he’s capable of. Henderson is one of the most recognizable stars in the sport, and he certainly has an axe to grind with Pettis.

This is going to be good. 

The Pettis-Henderson rematch is the featured bout, but there are other compelling fights in store for MMA fans. Frank Mir and Josh Barnett will thump in the co-feature.

Barnett is making his long-awaited UFC debut. Chad Mendes and Clay Guida will almost undoubtedly deliver a crowd-pleasing affair, and the same can be said for the Ben Rothwell-Brandon Vera bout.

Here’s how you can watch the event as well as predictions for each fight, except the main event. Deeper analysis into Henderson-Pettis 2 is just under the table.

 

Can Henderson Exorcise the Ghost of the Showtime Kick?

As spectacular as the famous kick was, it was just one moment in a really good fight between the two combatants during their days in World Extreme Cagefighting. There probably isn’t a week that goes by that someone doesn’t ask Henderson about it.

He called the kick a “stain” on his soul and told Victor Garcia of Fox News Latino:

“The whole fight was pretty close… Anthony let it all out, landing a pretty cool kick and ever since, I’ve been working to redeem myself.”

Pettis won the bout by unanimous decision, though the clips of the kick would lead those who didn’t see the fight to believe it was a KO. Almost everyone who follows the sport would tell you, Henderson has gotten much better since that day in 2010.

He’s captured the title and defended it three times against top-notch fighters like Frankie Edgar (whom he dethroned), Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez.

As much as Henderson has improved, so too has Pettis. Showtime was originally scheduled to take on featherweight champion Jose Aldo at UFC 163, but an injury forced him out of that fight. This bout with Henderson is perhaps an even bigger and easier opportunity. Pettis hasn’t lost a fight in two years and he’s taken home two straight KO of the Night bonuses.

Does he still hold an edge over the champion?

 

Prediction

Henderson has held his title since Feb. 2012. He’s faced the best fighters in his weight region, but he really hasn’t looked great since he beat Edgar for the gold. His best performance was against Diaz, but lately Henderson seems to be fighting too safe.

He’s naturally a defensive fighter, but since the close call with Edgar he’s put safety ahead of aggression almost to a fault. In the rematch with Edgar, Henderson threw 177 strikes compared to 270 in the first meeting. Against Melendez, he offered just 191, per Fight Metric. 

It seems he goes into a shell with more athletic opponents. They don’t come much more athletic than Pettis, and Henderson can’t afford to be passive. If he’s caught reacting as opposed to being aggressive, Pettis will get the better of him again.

I simulated the bout with UFC Undisputed 3 (I know I’m not the only one anxiously awaiting the release EA Sports UFC). 

There is no doubt who has the mental edge heading into this fight. Henderson is the champion, but Pettis owns the head-to-head victory. I predict he’ll dethrone Henderson by winning another unanimous decision on Saturday. Looks like the video game and I agree on the outcome of this one.

 

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