There is an art to matchmaking in combat sports.
While some fights come together with natural ease, most bouts are formed through a hectic process of evaluation. Several aspects need to be graded on each side of the table before committing to the matchup.
Whether or not a fight makes sense in the divisional scheme, timing and making sure both fighters stand to gain similar rewards are the most pressing issues that come to mind. Then, of course, there is the most important aspect of a potential fight: Will both competitors be willing to mix it up and put on a show?
The unfortunate part of the process comes when all of these criteria are met, and the fight fails to deliver. That said, the UFC showcases far more exciting tilts than flat fights these days, which goes to show just how good Joe Silva and Sean Shelby are at their jobs.
Even though the dreaded “injury bug” surfaced with solid frequency in 2014 and stole a handful of highly anticipated bouts, there were still plenty of interesting scraps that actually did happen this year. A good portion of those fights had some level of impact on the divisions in which they took place and when divisional pictures are moving at a steady rate, then things are moving in the right directions.
Prospects rose and fell in the quest to reach their potential. Perennial contenders and fighters who had carried elite-level certification lost their places in divisional upper tier while a batch of fresh talent battled to break through to elevate their statuses and profiles. All of which are necessary elements for divisions to remain competitive, and if there is one aspect of 2014 where the UFC scored solid points, it was their ability to keep several talent-stacked weight classes moving.
Some divisions even managed to do so without their champion competing or defending their title, and this is just further proof that important fights are happening at all ends of the promotional spectrum. For this month’s offering to our “UFC Fantasy Matchmaker” column, we highlighted three bouts that all carry significance for much different reasons. Whether it be status, title contention or relevance on the line, these three potential dust-ups would would all be worthwhile affairs.
Roy Nelson vs. Josh Barnett
It doesn’t take much to get fight fans excited when two high-profile heavyweights step into the Octagon to do battle. This is especially true when said behemoths each have spent years crafting their respective resumes against the best fighters in the world, and they have amassed quality highlight reels filled with one brutal finish after the next. Both Roy Nelson and Josh Barnett have spent their entire careers settling the opposition with great frequency and have developed their own signature brands of violence in the process.
“Big Country” rose to the upper echelon of the heavyweight ranks by slinging his brick-heavy right hand with reckless abandon and established himself as one of the fight game’s premier knockout artists in the process. While The Ultimate Fighter season-10 winner has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under legend Renzo Gracie, the Las Vegas native hasn’t needed to dip into that area of his skill set much over the past several years as the former IFL champion has shown a willingness to stand and trade leather with every fighter who has stepped in to fight him.
And while that approach has allowed Nelson to string together multiple winning streaks since his arrival to the UFC back in 2009, the 38-year-old Nevadian has hit a rough patch as of late. Nelson has lost three of his last four showings with the sole victory in that stretch coming in a devastating fashion as he scored a walk-away knockout victory over former interim champion and MMA legend Antonio “Big Nog” Nogueira in the first round of their tilt back in April.
Yet, while his win over the former Pride champion bumped Nelson closer to the top of the heavyweight ranks, a lopsided loss to Daniel Cormier at UFC 166 in October of 2013, and a knockout suffered at the hands of would-be title challenger Mark Hunt in his most recent outing back in September have the bearded powerhouse in jeopardy of losing his place among the divisional best. He will need to score a victory over a big-named opponent to get back into the mix, and Josh Barnett certainly fits that description.
Furthermore, “The Warmaster” is in a similar position as well.
While the former UFC heavyweight champion picked up plenty of proverbial heat when he trucked fellow former champion Frank Mir in his long-awaited return to the Octagon at UFC 164 back in August of 2013, the fighter formerly known as “The Baby Faced Assassin” had that momentum put on ice in violent fashion when Travis Browne brutalized him with a flurry of elbows in the first round of their tilt at UFC 168 last December.
Coming into the bout with “Hapa,” Barnett appeared to be the resurgent veteran on a quest to reclaim championship gold, but after the rangy Hawaiian left him slumped against the cage via knockout, any steam Barnett had pushing him to the top evaporated.
Yet, while Barnett hasn’t competed inside the Octagon since the loss to Browne, that doesn’t mean the 37-year-old Californian has been out of the spotlight. The Catch wrestling representative became the first man in 16 years to submit Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Dean Lister when the two men locked up in the co-main event at Metamoris 4 to become the grappling promotion’s inaugural heavyweight champion. And while Barnett’s performance in the match proved he’s still one of the best submission fighters in the world, winning 10 of his past 12 fights over the last six years goes a long ways to prove he’s still a top-level talent inside the cage.
That said, he’s going to need a big victory to keep that argument alive, and Nelson’s popularity with the fighting faithful would make the former TUF winner the ideal target. Furthermore, Barnett would most likely force Nelson to dust off his BJJ game and that aspect alone would make a fight between the two established veterans worth watching.
Michael Bisping vs. Elias Theodorou
Every few years an invisible tide will sweep through divisions under the UFC banner and wash former contenders and previously elite-level fighters out to a place where championship opportunities are no longer visible on the horizon. The tide also marks the arrival of fresh talent looking to establish themselves in title contention. It’s the natural ebb and flow of such things in the fight business and for the better part of a decade, Michael Bisping has been rock to all approaching storms.
While there have been setbacks and missteps during his time in the upper tier of the middleweight division, “The Count” has never been more than two big victories away from being dead in the mix for a title shot. The brash-talking Brit has been the very definition of a divisional staple during his time in the 185-pound ranks, but lately it appears the approaching tide has started to chip away at his historically sturdy foundation.
Where The Ultimate Fighter season-three winner has been prone to rolling off victory after victory inside the cage, the past two years have told somewhat of a different story, as the scrappy Englishman has only found success in two of his past five bouts. Furthermore, the adversity Bisping has faced has not come inside the Octagon alone, as the Los Angeles transplant also suffered a detached retina and a lengthy recovery process from the injury. Simply put: It’s been a rough run for Bisping as of late, but he’s still shown flashes of what made him a contender in the first place.
Although his win over Alan Belcher at UFC 159 back in April of 2013 was a lackluster showing, the Manchester native’s absolute drubbing of heralded striker Cung Le back in August proved there’s still plenty of go in Bisping‘s tank. That said, the three losses he’s suffered in this current stretch and the fashion in which they happened may have finally pushed the British kickboxer out of the elite realm once and for all.
It seems that perhaps the swirling tide he once represented and fended off for so long may finally be pushing him further out on the horizon and that’s why it’s the perfect time to put that exact notion to the test against Elias Theodorou.
While “The Spartan” is still in the early stages of his UFC run and is in the process of parlaying the momentum he built from winning The Ultimate Fighter: Canada vs Australia into legitimate recognition, the circumstances are perfect for Theodorou to draw a a high-caliber opponent the likes of Bisping. Five years ago, a TUF winner like Theodorou would be spoon fed favorable matchups in order to solidify his status as a legit fighter. Coming off a loss, Bisping would draw a slipping veteran with a recognizable name in order to get him back into the win column, the current environment of the middleweight division is much different than it was just a short time ago.
Where pound-for-pound great Anderson Silva once ruled the 185-pound fold with an iron fist and everyone outside of the champion himself seemed to mill about the division until they were tapped to become “The Spider’s” next victim, that’s no longer the case in the middleweight division. The Brazilian phenom was bested in back-to-back showings by current champion Chris Weidman, and a weight class once thought to be cleaned out is now thriving with potential title contenders.
In addition to the “All American” being a dominant champion, fighters like Vitor Belfort, Luke Rockhold, “Jacare” Souza, Yoel Romero, Lyoto Machida and a handful of others are all two big victories away from getting a shot at championship gold.
Due to his recent losses, Bisping is no longer in this equation and facing a talented young upstart like Theodorou serves several purposes. Pairing an established name against a rising prospect eager to raise his stock is common practice in combat sports and one that makes solid sense if the veteran is still in his physical prime, which Bisping appears to be. He would undoubtedly be the biggest test Theodorou had ever faced and a potential bout between the two would provide a proper gauge for both men.
Fighting the 26-year-old Canadian would give Bisping the chance to prove he has the moxie to turn back a rising talent, while Theodorou would have the opportunity to knock off one of the biggest names in the division. Furthermore, should Bisping defeat Theodorou, he’s still young enough in his career where the experience alone would be enough to make the potential bout worthwhile. That said, a Bisping wouldn’t enjoy the same type of levity if he were to lose to the undefeated Toronto-based fighter.
On the flip—and pushing all additional elements aside—the stylistic matchup between Bisping and Theodorou alone would be high-paced fun. Both have full throttle attacks and no matter how the results eventually shook out, it would be difficult to imagine a fight between the former perennial contender and the surging prospect not delivering.
The final matter to consider would be the tremendous amount of upside that would come with a Theodorou victory. The former model and self-proclaimed owner of the “best hair in MMA” has the makings to be a star in the UFC fold, but he needs the resume and heavy names on said resume if that is ever going to happen. In his short time under the UFC banner, Theodorou has proven to be as game as they come inside the Octagon, and it would be interesting to see if he could rise to the challenge and seize a moment as big as what defeating Bisping would present.
Joseph Benavidez vs. John Moraga
If the UFC’s flyweight division were a person, it would just now be moving out of diapers and into pull-ups as the 125-pound collective rolls into its third year of existence. And while that isn’t a tremendous amount of time for a full-fledged divisional shootout to take form, the combatants in the flyweight ranks have wasted no time establishing the divisional hierarchy.
Demetrious Johnson has not only clearly solidified his place as the best 125-pound fighter in the world, he’s done it over and over again in a more definitive fashion than he did the last time. “Mighty Mouse” is still the only man to ever hold UFC flyweight gold, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been competitors who have given their proverbial all to pry that gold out of the Washington native’s hands. Of that group, Joseph Benavidez and John Moraga are both card-carrying members.
Where the MMA Lab representative failed in his one and only attempt to dethrone Johnson, the Team Alpha Male standout has fumbled both of his opportunities to become champion. And while their initial meeting to determine the inaugural divisional title at UFC 152 in Sept. of 2012 was a closely contested affair with Johnson edging out Benavidez on the judges’ scorecards, their rematch at UFC on Fox 9 last December was the exact opposite as “D.J.” scored a first-round knockout victory.
Yet, while Benavidez has fallen short in his efforts to become the flyweight champion, the Sacramento-based scrapper has brutalized every opponent he’s faced without a title being on the line. Save for his bout with Ian McCall being a unanimous decision at UFC 156 in February of 2013, Benavidez‘s four other victories within the division have been starchings. Granted, talented prospect Dustin Ortiz took the Las Cruces native the distance in his most recent showing, but the fight itself was Benavidez putting on a 15-minute striking clinic at Fight Night 57 as he picked up his fifth win in his past six outings.
Nevertheless, Benavidez will not get anywhere near a title shot while Johnson still holds the crown, and Moraga is currently sitting in similar waters. The Phoenix native has proven to be one of the best the division has to offer, but a submission loss to Johnson in his sole title opportunity back in July of 2013, and a TKO via doctor stoppage against John Dodson back in June have Moraga sitting in title-shot limbo at the current time.
Even with his impressive victory over Justin Scoggins back in September Moraga didn’t put himself much closer to another title shot, and that’s where Benavidez comes in.
Of the group of fighters currently residing in the upper tier of the flyweight fold, Benavidez and Moraga is the one fight that somehow has not yet been made. They are both ranked at the top of the division and the matchup will certainly happen sooner or later so why not make it sooner? With both fighters being former title challengers, the winner of the potential bout between Benavidez and Moraga would certainly benefit greatly. They’ve both already defeated several lesser ranked opponents and been forced to sit in relative silence in the aftermath time and time again.
And all signs point to that condition lasting awhile longer. Moraga was slated to face Jussier Formiga at UFC on Fox 13 in Phoenix on Dec. 13, but the Brazilian veteran pulled out of the bout due to injury and was replaced by Willie Gates. Now, Moraga will face an even lower ranked opponent, and should he defeat Gates next month, it will do little to nothing for his hopes of getting another title opportunity. No disrespect to Gates of course—the bout is a huge opportunity for him—but Moraga has legitimately proved to be one of the best in the weight class and the upcoming bout against Gates feels like he’s treading water and waiting for a much bigger opportunity to come around.
That opportunity is a bout with Benavidez and it needs to happen for both men.
Duane Finley is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless noted otherwise.
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