Author: Jeremy Botter

Welcome to my new Monday feature “3 Questions,” where we take a look at the three biggest issues surrounding the upcoming week in mixed martial arts

 

1. What’s the deal with this mystery UFC on FX show? 

I was more than a little surprised yesterday when Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida was announced as the main event for UFC on FX 4. Not because of the fight itself, because I knew for over a month that the fight would be booked at some point—we just weren’t sure when, exactly, it would happen. 

I was surprised because the event was called UFC on FX 4, and there was no UFC on FX 3 event on the calendar. 

A little digging allowed me to confirm with UFC officials that the June 22 show in Atlantic City that was previously believed to be UFC on FX 3 will now, in fact, be UFC on FX 4. A new FX event, currently believed to be held June 8 at an undisclosed location, will be announced shortly. And no, it will not be the Ultimate Fighter Live Finale—that’s a separate event entirely.

Will we find out more about this secret show in the days ahead? I think we will.

 

2. Will Bellator’s planned main event for Friday night actually happen?

Eric Prindle and Thiago Santos seem destined for catastrophe. They originally met in November, and things were going along swimmingly until Santos punted Prindle in the junk so hard that the referee actually stopped the fight. That nasty incident was followed by an even nastier one the next day when Prindle decided it would be a great idea to tweet a picture of his ruptured ball.

The rematch was booked for last Friday night, but it never happened. Why? It depends on who you believe. Bellator and everyone else involved with the fight said that Prindle fell ill and couldn’t compete. Sources close to Bellator told me that Prindle was trying to cut too much weight and became sick as a result, so the doctors stopped his cut and wouldn’t allow him to compete. 

Prindle told a different story, saying that Santos was the one who tried to cut too much weight and that it was his fault the fight was scrapped.

Either way, it’s been re-scheduled for this Friday night. Given the history between these two thus far, you can expect something wacky to happen here.

 

3. Can Team Faber rebound on Ultimate Fighter Live?

Dominick Cruz pretty much had his way with Urijah Faber on the second episode of Ultimate Fighter Live. 

The guy believed to be one of Cruz’s worst draft picks knocked out Faber’s top pick in the first round, earning control of the fight picks for Team Cruz. And then Cruz utterly punked Faber when it came to the actual fight pick for next week, surprising Faber and telling him to pick anyone they wanted to step in the cage with his top pick Justin Lawrence.

Crickets. That’s pretty much the only thing you heard as Faber looked blankly at his team while they did the same thing in return. It was an emasculating moment for the entire team, as it gave off the impression that nobody wanted to fight Lawrence. Cruz briefly let the moment linger, then selected Cristiano Marcello to face Lawrence.

This is a big fight. Lawrence and Marcello were two of the major favorites to face off in the finals, and they’re now squaring off in week three. Can Marcello help Team Faber get its mojo back? 

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The first time I ever visited Las Vegas, I won just over $7,000 in a single night by playing dollar slots. Having never visited Sin City before, I figured that this was par for the course and immediately declared Vegas to be the greatest city ever created by gangsters. I thought I’d discovered the secret to making easy money.

You know the rest of the story, I’m sure. I ended up going home two days later, my head hung in shame, with a mere $650 left in my pocket. And ever since that first trip, I’ve never been able to win any kind of real money in Vegas. I even lived 10 minutes from the strip for a year while covering MMA for my previous employer and still ended up losing far more money than I made.

But I think I could make a living from betting on mixed martial arts.

I don’t actually bet on the fights. Not on a regular basis, anyway. Gambling on the sport you cover isn’t the best idea in the world because you start rooting with your wallet instead of being an objective observer.

But that doesn’t stop me from looking at the odds and offering my opinion to those of you who actually want to wager on the fights. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the odds for a few of the big fights unfolding over the next six months:

Jon Jones -525 vs. Rashad Evans +415: Jones opened as a six-to-one favorite, but the line is moving in favor of Evans. I would expect it to continually hover around this mark until a day before the fight, when people will likely begin heavily betting Evans. I see the logic in putting money on Evans as a four to one dog, but I do believe this line accurately reflects the actual matchup in the fight.

Jim Miller -210 vs. Nathan Diaz +175: I’m a little surprised Miller isn’t a slightly bigger favorite; I’d peg him at -350. So there’s real value in Miller here. Diaz is a very good fighter, but Miller is better all-around.

Dustin Poirier -300 vs. Chan Sung Jung +220: Poirier should be a bigger favorite in this fight. He’s better nearly everywhere than Jung. He also cuts a ton of weight to make 145 and will have a significant size advantage over the Zombie. Poirier represents significant value at this point, and I expect the line will start moving closer to -400 by the time the fight rolls around.

Junior dos Santos -170 vs. Alistair Overeem +150: This is a tough fight to call, and an even tougher line to analyze. Dos Santos has always had a boxing edge over his opponents, but he won’t have that against Overeem. If Dos Santos is smart, he’s working on his wrestling and jiu-jitsu in the hopes of turning this into a ground battle. This one is a pick em’ for me, so I think there’s value in Overeem at this point. If Overeem goes over +200, I strongly urge you to pull the trigger.

Cain Velasquez -400 vs. Frank Mir +325: It’s easy to look at this line and say it’s correct, but I think it’s wildly incorrect. Velasquez should win the fight, but he’s coming off a major injury and surgery. We don’t know how he’ll respond to that. He’s also spent a lot of time not fighting over the past year and a half. I do think Velasquez will win the fight, but Mir gives you some good value at this number.

Anderson Silva -300 vs. Chael Sonnen +250: This just seems incorrect, doesn’t? Silva went into their first fight as a significant favorite and was utterly dominated until the end of the fight, yet he’s still a three-to-one favorite in the rematch? I do believe Silva wins this fight, but it’s going to be a lot closer than these numbers indicate. 

Dominick Cruz -175 vs. Urijah Faber +145: This is a very accurate line. Cruz should be the favorite going into the rematch, but Faber gave him all he could handle in the first fight. Faber’s had plenty of time to adapt to Cruz’s game, and he’ll be as ready as anyone else in the bantamweight division by the time July 7 rolls around.

Ben Henderson -115 vs. Frankie Edgar – 115: Edgar opened up as the favorite for the rematch, but the money came in on Henderson and shifted the line in his favorite. I fully expect Henderson to be a two-to-one favorite by the time the fight rolls around this summer, so this is a good time to jump on the line if you’re going to do it.

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