There is no doubt that Georges St-Pierre has dominated the welterweight division the past three years.
Some would even argue that he has cleaned out the division and want him to move up to middleweight in order to challenge Anderson Silva. Others argue that it is impossible to clean out a division when there is a constant influx of new talent.
St-Pierre has defended his belt six times since he regained the title from Matt Serra. All of those wins have been decisive, leaving little fan interest in a rematch with any of those opponents. He has avenged the only two losses of his career. He has even “avenged” the only split decision of his career.
St-Pierre has a dangerous matchup with Nick Diaz this October. If Diaz wins, there is a plethora of established names that he could take on. If St-Pierre wins, who would be next in line for a title shot? St-Pierre will have beaten all the established names in the division.
Fortunately for the UFC, there is a wave of exciting, new talent in the welterweight division. Anthony Johnson, Rick Story, Brian Foster, Johnny Hendricks, John Hathaway and Jake Ellenberger are the future at 170 lbs. However, it is debatable whether any of them are ready for a title shot and their names do not resonate with the casual MMA fan.
Joe Silva originally matched up Anthony Johnson against Nate Marquardt for UFC on Versus 4. Back-to-back wins over former No. 1 contenders at 170 and 185 lbs. could have served as the springboard for Johnson to challenge St-Pierre. If Marquardt won and looked comfortable at 170 lbs, then his resume at middleweight could easily generate enough interest to warrant a title shot.
However, Johnson had to pull out with an injury. Rick Story didn’t hesitate to take his spot despite the fact that he fought as recently as Memorial Day weekend. If Story won, then he would have two wins over former No. 1 contenders just as Johnson would have. But now, Marquardt is out of the fight, and it appears that he is out of the UFC as well.
Charlie Brenneman has stepped up to face Story, but a fight that had title implications in its first two incarnations now has none in its third. No matter what the outcome of Sunday’s fight, Joe Silva will lack a compelling challenger for St-Pierre. He will have to set up a fight for the No. 1 contender spot sometime this fall.
He has three options for this fight. He can match up two former contenders such as Fitch and Penn, he can match up two newcomers such as Story and Johnson or he could match up a veteran and a newcomer. The ideal scenario for the UFC would be Johnson or Story getting the win against a veteran, but the fight game is anything but predictable. The UFC will have to balance the risk of matching GSP up against an established welterweight that he has already beaten decisively or against a dangerous opponent that has little name recognition.
When you consider the quagmire that Marquardt’s withdrawal puts the UFC in, it is understandable why Dana White is so upset. The UFC needs a bridge between its most marketable star and a slew of extremely talented welterweights who may not be quite ready to take on the champion. Nate Marquardt was supposed to be that bridge, and without him, the UFC will have to take a big risk this fall—one way or the other.
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