Author: Matt Fitzgerald

UFC 168: Preview and Predictions for Marquee Main Card Fights

UFC 168 gets underway on Saturday, Dec. 28, at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand Garden Arena, and Anderson Silva will fittingly be taking a huge gamble in the fight that headlines the main card.
“The Spider” will seek to bounce back in a middleweight bout against …

UFC 168 gets underway on Saturday, Dec. 28, at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand Garden Arena, and Anderson Silva will fittingly be taking a huge gamble in the fight that headlines the main card.

“The Spider” will seek to bounce back in a middleweight bout against Chris Weidman, the fighter who knocked Silva to the canvas for good in their last meeting.

Also featured on the men’s side of things is a heavyweight duel between Josh Barnett and Travis Browne, but another showdown that will garner a ton of attention will involve Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate. The women have a tense rivalry and are engaging in their first UFC matchup.

Below are predictions for every fight on the main card, along with a closer look and preview of the three that will conclude the exciting evening in Sin City.

Note: Statistics and information are courtesy of UFC.com and FightMetric.com.

 

 

Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne

Unlike the other two fights that will draw the most attention and will be rematches, this will be the first time Barnett and Browne square off in what should be a hard-hitting display.

Two very contrasting styles will be on display. Browne likes to end things with a bang, as evidenced by the 73 percent of his bouts ending in TKO or KO. On the other hand, Barnett has won on submissions 55 percent of the time.

The 36-year-old Barnett (33-6) may have an edge in experience over his opponent, but Browne is confident and feels he is just scratching the surface of what’s possible, per the UFC’s official Twitter account:

But Barnett just beat former Heavyweight champion Frank Mir on Aug. 31 at UFC 164, making him a formidable foe to contend with.

With so much at stake and so much to gain, though, look for Browne to continue thriving under that pressure as he continues his perpetual ascent and wins this fight by way of TKO in the first round.

Prediction: Browne wins via TKO

 

Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate

These two are chomping at the bit to get after each other, creating an unprecedented and compelling storyline for UFC president Dana White.

There was a palpable ferociousness from the outset of their Strikeforce bantamweight title fight, which Rousey won by armbar submission:

B/R’s own MMA lead writer Jonathan Snowden interviewed both fighters in a fantastic feature ahead of Saturday evening’s bout. Tate expressed that Rousey is self-absorbed and is not the darling the media portrays her to be:

Ronda Rousey is not someone I personally like representing women’s MMA as a whole. Because you can see how she really is…It’s all about Ronda and the Ronda show. She doesn’t care how she comes off or how she represents women’s MMA. It’s going to be her way or the highway.

For Rousey’s opponents, so far it’s been losing by submission as the only way out of the Octagon, which Tate has experienced firsthand.

No one has been able to stop “Rowdy” yet, but Tate has the tools and the knowledge of having faced her opponent once before to combat it.

But until someone figures out Rousey for sure, it’s hard to imagine any other outcome. She has talked the talk and backed it up by devastating her adversaries, and took another dig at Tate with regard to the outcome of their first encounter, per Snowden:

I think the rivalry is necessary. It really is. Because based on how the first match went alone, I don’t think a rematch would sell. There has to be a rivalry to bring interest in. It was the showmanship and entertainment that grabbed attention in the first place.

Unless Tate’s wrestling expertise can fend off Rousey better on the ground and stop her signature go-to move, look for the result to be similar to the first time.

There should be lots of action and a lengthy battle, but Rousey will wrench an armbar before the Round 1 bell sounds.

Prediction: Rousey wins via submission

 

Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva

The last fight was more a sign of Silva’s hubris than anything else, as he antagonized Weidman by showboating around the Octagon before succumbing to a knockout blow.

It even forced the 38-year-old living legend to consider retirement, but his son talked him out of such thoughts, per FoxSports.com’s Damon Martin:

After the last fight, after the dust settled I was sitting thinking alone and thinking maybe I should stop. Maybe this is it. But I got on the phone with my son and my son said, “Hey dad, do what you want to do, do what makes you happy,” and that’s what I’m doing.

…I still have eight fights left on my contract and as long as I’m still enjoying it and I still want to go out there and have that desire to fight, I’m going to keep on fighting.

There shouldn’t be any doubts about Silva’s desire to avenge that unfortunate loss, because the ferocious Brazilian has successfully defended the middleweight title in the UFC 10 times before.

Weidman has a perfect 10-0 record on the line, and there might be even more pressure on him to prove to his detractors that his landmark triumph wasn’t a fluke of sorts and that he is indeed better than Silva at this point in their respective careers.

The overall numbers say that Silva is a far more precise fighter (67.12 percent on significant strikes, compared to just 41.98 percent from Weidman) and he has a far more proven track record.

Silva will take this more seriously and business-like, getting a bounce-back win by way of knockout and confirming he still belongs well within the UFC’s elite.

Prediction: Silva wins via KO

 

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Rampage Jackson vs. Joey Beltran: Winner, Scorecard and Analysis

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson made his Bellator debut on Friday evening at Revel Atlantic City in New Jersey, doing it in style by defeating Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran in a Bellator 108 main-event MMA fight.
The two longtime UFC fighters took to the c…

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson made his Bellator debut on Friday evening at Revel Atlantic City in New Jersey, doing it in style by defeating Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran in a Bellator 108 main-event MMA fight.

The two longtime UFC fighters took to the cage seeking to recapture some of their previous glory, and Jackson prevailed in registering a TKO at the very end of the first round at 4:59.

It marked Jackson’s 15th career knockout and the 11th in the first round, per Spike TV’s telecast.

After a three-fight losing streak in the UFC, Jackson’s message afterward was clear: He felt rejuvenated:

Knee problems plagued him in the past, but the explosive strength was on display in claiming a resounding victory.

From the outset, it was clear the fighters wanted to attack each other. In the first 20 seconds, Rampage stepped in and kneed Beltran in the abdomen, and the two locked up, which wound up being a common theme throughout.

Then Beltran broke free and laid a big right hand to Jackson’s face, which pushed the 35-year-old back.

TSN MMA writer James Lynch was not sold on Jackson’s quickness and felt Beltran held his own until the very end:

While Beltran is more of a methodical fighter who prefers to wear down his opponents, Jackson has the force to knock out his rivals with one punch. His prowess was on display, but it didn’t come easy.

That power is why Beltran preferred to be a bit more conservative in the early going, as he sought an opportunity to counter whenever Jackson went in for the KO.

The pace of the fight favored Beltran, as he locked up a frustrated Jackson against the perimeter, giving him little room to operate and go on the offensive.

Beltran kept pounding away and looked to be in command, but with around 30 seconds before the first-round bell rang, he lost his grip on Jackson, and the two drifted toward the middle of the cage.

One second before the end of Round 1, Jackson crushed Beltran in the face with a left hook, which was the decisive blow that sent the Mexicutioner to the canvas.

It had been a while since Jackson had to have one of his fights called early because of his undeniable power:

The triumph in Atlantic City improves Jackson’s MMA record to 33-11 and drops Beltran to 14-10 with one no-contest.

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UFC 165 Fight Card: Predicting Biggest Bouts Preceding Jones vs. Gustafsson

UFC 165 takes place at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Saturday night. While Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson are the main attraction, there are plenty of other showdowns on the fight card to look forward to.
Jones is considered a prohibitive fav…

UFC 165 takes place at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto on Saturday night. While Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson are the main attraction, there are plenty of other showdowns on the fight card to look forward to.

Jones is considered a prohibitive favorite. In the co-main event, expected winner Renan Barao takes on Eddie Wineland. An upset in that bout would certainly make headlines, so it will be interesting to see how Barao responds in defending his interim bantamweight title.

That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg on the card, as UFC commentator Joe Rogan can attest to:

Let’s take a closer look at that bout along with the three others that will precede the highly anticipated Jones-Gustafsson tilt.

Note: Statistics are courtesy of FightMetric.com.

 

Heavyweight Division (265 lbs): Brendan Schaub vs. Matt Mitrione

The bitterness between these two massive men only heightens the anticipation for this meeting.

The heavy-handed Mitrione has the clear superiority in terms of power and has a longer reach by four inches, which makes it likely that Schaub will look to wrestle his counterpart and attempt a submission.

It’s a battle between diverse strengths, but look for Mitrione to not even let Schaub get settled in long enough to plot out his takedowns, as he had time to do at UFC 157 against Lavar Johnson.

Mitrione will be able to hit Schaub hard enough early on to wear him down, then go in for the TKO in the second round. That’s not a knock on Schaub as a boxer, but rather a testament to how strong Mitrione‘s strikes can be.

Prediction: Mitrione wins via TKO in Round 2

 

Middleweight Division (185 lbs): Costa Philippou vs. Francis Carmont

Despite an undefeated record—and a nickname of “Limitless”—that suggests invincibility, Carmont is in line to suffer his first loss in the UFC.

Philippou is simply better at striking than Carmont, who has not looked overly impressive in any of his recent five matches.

Carmont was gifted with questionable decision victories in each of his last two fights when he faced Tom Lawlor and Lorenz Larkin. Brad Tavares agreed when news of this fight broke in late August:

It is due time for Carmont to be put in his place, and although it will be difficult to knock him down given the nature of his previous two bouts, Philippou should walk away with a clear-cut unanimous decision.

Prediction: Philippou via Unanimous Decision

 

Lightweight Division (155 lbs): Pat Healy vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

This is only Healy‘s second fight in the UFC. He will take on an undefeated foe who packs a serious punch and is extremely effective at taking down opponents.

Nurmagomedov averages over eight takedowns per 15 minutes, and that’s something Healy must avoid. Healy is capable of absorbing serious punishment, made evident by his 53 percent defense rate.

Having said that, he can ill afford to take that kind of punishment and turn this into a boxing match where he waits too long to make his move. The quicker Nurmagomedov is lighter on his feet and thus neutralizes Healy‘s two-inch reach advantage.

A big X-factor is Nurmagomedov‘s sambo background, which makes him an effective wrestler. Look for him to submit Healy despite the American’s toughness and impressive debut win over Jim Miller.

Prediction: Nurmagomedev wins via Round 4 submission

 

Interim Bantamweight Division (135 lbs): Renan Barao vs. Eddie Wineland

Barao dropped his first MMA fight, but has since won his past 30 and none of them have been particularly suspenseful. That trend should continue against Wineland, who sports just a 20-8-1 record as a professional.

This is a matchup determined almost by default, as the bantamweight division simply doesn’t have many strong competition for Barao to go up against.

The best attribute Wineland has going for him is his toughness, as he’s nearly impossible to knock to the canvas and can absorb a lot of punishment.

However, if Barao utilizes his native jiujitsu and knocks Wineland to the ground, this fight could easily be had by way of submission.

Wineland isn’t effective in that regard, as his takedown accuracy is only 44 percent compared to Barao‘s 58, and his defense against such scenarios is only 80 percent. Look for Barao to take this one in ground-and-pound fashion.

Prediction: Barao wins via Round 3 submission

 

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Jones vs. Gustafsson: Bones Will Retain UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Jon Jones faces a formidable adversary in Alexander Gustafsson on Saturday evening for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, but Bones will find a way to successfully defend his title for the sixth time.
UFC 165’s main event in the Air Canada Centre …

Jon Jones faces a formidable adversary in Alexander Gustafsson on Saturday evening for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, but Bones will find a way to successfully defend his title for the sixth time.

UFC 165‘s main event in the Air Canada Centre in Toronto is destined to be a doozy, primarily because the 26-year-old Jones is almost always at an advantage in terms of size, standing at a towering 6’4″. However, Gustafsson is one inch taller, though is short of Jones’ massive reach by three inches.

That disparity nullifies the slight stature edge Gustafsson has. Whether it’s that factor, Jones’ pedigree or other elements, the oddsmakers aren’t giving The Mauler much of a chance, per Jon Anik:

Gustafsson isn’t short on confidence despite being the underdog, though, which makes sense since it took him a lot of work to get to this point and to hold the No. 1 ranking in the weight class.

He feels his preparation has been first-class, according to a report by Yahoo! Sports’ Kevin Iole:

It’s not always about reach, it’s about footwork, it’s being fast, in and out, stuff like that. And I’m really making sure I’ve really done my homework here and I’m super motivated.

We try to break down Jon [and] his last fights into pieces and try to move through everything. That’s what we do and how my coaches do it. And I’ve got 100 percent full trust in my coaches. I’m doing my homework here, too, so I’m just getting ready.

Then again, Jones is particularly renowned for his attention to detail in preparation, and B/R MMA Lead Writer Jeremy Botter believes the only man capable of stopping Jones is himself:

While the versatility and arsenal of moves Jones has are far superior to Gustafsson‘s array of combinations, it does help that the Swede is a legitimate light heavyweight who has excellent footwork and quickness.

For Jones, who has a tendency to get a little heavy on his feet, this could be problematic. It’s a dilemma in tactics for Gustafsson, though. If he were to utilize his Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess, going to the ground is just about the worst thing one could do against Jones, given what’s happened to predecessors.

Take this vicious elbow Jones laid on Brandon Vera in the first round all the way back in 2010, for example:

Being on the counterattack and staying on his feet is absolutely critical for Gustafsson. Even though antagonizing Jones in boxing situations isn’t a great compromise in strategy, it’s still better than trying to beat him on the ground.

Such a strategy would only be effective temporarily, though. Jones’ only loss came to Matt Hamill for illegal elbows, and in his MMA career, only Rashad Evans has pushed him to all five rounds.

Whether it’s by submission or a TKO, it is relatively certain that Jones will be able to do enough to hold off Gustafsson and maintain his claim as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

 

Prediction: Jones wins via fourth-round TKO.

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Evans vs. Henderson: Sugar Proves Resilience in Comeback Victory

Rashad Evans rallied from being knocked down in the opening round to narrowly defeat Dan Henderson in a split on Saturday evening at UFC 161. The narrow main event victory pushed Evans’ mixed martial arts record to 18-3-1, while dropping Henderson to 2…

Rashad Evans rallied from being knocked down in the opening round to narrowly defeat Dan Henderson in a split on Saturday evening at UFC 161. The narrow main event victory pushed Evans’ mixed martial arts record to 18-3-1, while dropping Henderson to 29-10.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s official Twitter page highlighted what made the difference for the 33-year-old Evans:

While neither fighter was particularly impressive in Winnipeg’s MTS Centre, it was a gritty performance from Evans. 

Rashad “Sugar” Evans moved in to attack then hit the octagon canvas after Henderson jabbed him.

Henderson was able to pummel him on the ground, but Evans bounced back up in enough time to finish the round. That proved critical, because the scores for the next two rounds were 29-28 in favor of Evans.

Even though Henderson is nine years Evans’ senior at 42, he’s still one of the premier light heavyweights in the world, and has a vicious right hand that has helped him knock out 13 prior MMA opponents.

It was critical for Evans to win this fight if he’s meant to eventually get a shot at challenging Jon Jones for the UFC light heavyweight title belt. Evans had lost his two previous matchups by unanimous decision, the first of which was to Jones last April.

That gave Jones the belt, and he is a fighter who is only improving and is merely 25 years old. Evans discussed the possibility of facing Jones again after his slim win, and was reluctant to drop to middleweight for his next clash, as documented by MMAJunkie.com’s Matt Erickson:

I feel good at 205 [pounds]…I’d love to get a shot at Jon Jones again. I’d love to get back to where I was…and [be] spectacular every single fight. But it’s pretty tough. You have a lot of guys here who are very talented – it’s a different landscape. I’ve got to make some adjustments to my game if I’m going to be dominant.

Evans seems to have already made some adjustments in terms of his fitness. UFC President Dana White remarked in Erickson’s report how he had never seen Evans in such good shape.

That sentiment was shared by FOX UFC analyst and retired fighter Kenny Florian:

With improved physical condition and the cumulative experience Evans has amassed, it is possible that he could once again hold the championship he initially captured in 2008 against Forrest Griffin.

After the fight, Evans also admitted to being nervous entering the fight, and that it was essentially a must-win situation. It makes sense, in light of his prior two-match skid (h/t Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com and FUEL TV):

The outcome was rather tight and arguably inconclusive, and some of Henderson’s fans might argue that he should have gotten the decision. Evans almost looked relieved when the three judges’ scores revealed him as the winner.

However, the bottom line is that Evans emerged triumphant, which revives his ambitions for another title shot. It gives him reason to continue improving his physique, to add versatility to his arsenal in his bid to re-ascend to the prior pinnacle of his magnificent career.

Note: Statistics and past fight information courtesy of UFC.com.

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Evans vs. Henderson: Sugar Proves Resilience in Comeback Victory

Rashad Evans rallied from being knocked down in the opening round to narrowly defeat Dan Henderson in a split on Saturday evening at UFC 161. The narrow main event victory pushed Evans’ mixed martial arts record to 18-3-1, while dropping Henderson to 2…

Rashad Evans rallied from being knocked down in the opening round to narrowly defeat Dan Henderson in a split on Saturday evening at UFC 161. The narrow main event victory pushed Evans’ mixed martial arts record to 18-3-1, while dropping Henderson to 29-10.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s official Twitter page highlighted what made the difference for the 33-year-old Evans:

While neither fighter was particularly impressive in Winnipeg’s MTS Centre, it was a gritty performance from Evans. 

Rashad “Sugar” Evans moved in to attack then hit the octagon canvas after Henderson jabbed him.

Henderson was able to pummel him on the ground, but Evans bounced back up in enough time to finish the round. That proved critical, because the scores for the next two rounds were 29-28 in favor of Evans.

Even though Henderson is nine years Evans’ senior at 42, he’s still one of the premier light heavyweights in the world, and has a vicious right hand that has helped him knock out 13 prior MMA opponents.

It was critical for Evans to win this fight if he’s meant to eventually get a shot at challenging Jon Jones for the UFC light heavyweight title belt. Evans had lost his two previous matchups by unanimous decision, the first of which was to Jones last April.

That gave Jones the belt, and he is a fighter who is only improving and is merely 25 years old. Evans discussed the possibility of facing Jones again after his slim win, and was reluctant to drop to middleweight for his next clash, as documented by MMAJunkie.com’s Matt Erickson:

I feel good at 205 [pounds]…I’d love to get a shot at Jon Jones again. I’d love to get back to where I was…and [be] spectacular every single fight. But it’s pretty tough. You have a lot of guys here who are very talented – it’s a different landscape. I’ve got to make some adjustments to my game if I’m going to be dominant.

Evans seems to have already made some adjustments in terms of his fitness. UFC President Dana White remarked in Erickson’s report how he had never seen Evans in such good shape.

That sentiment was shared by FOX UFC analyst and retired fighter Kenny Florian:

With improved physical condition and the cumulative experience Evans has amassed, it is possible that he could once again hold the championship he initially captured in 2008 against Forrest Griffin.

After the fight, Evans also admitted to being nervous entering the fight, and that it was essentially a must-win situation. It makes sense, in light of his prior two-match skid (h/t Ariel Helwani of MMAFighting.com and FUEL TV):

The outcome was rather tight and arguably inconclusive, and some of Henderson’s fans might argue that he should have gotten the decision. Evans almost looked relieved when the three judges’ scores revealed him as the winner.

However, the bottom line is that Evans emerged triumphant, which revives his ambitions for another title shot. It gives him reason to continue improving his physique, to add versatility to his arsenal in his bid to re-ascend to the prior pinnacle of his magnificent career.

Note: Statistics and past fight information courtesy of UFC.com.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com