The year is coming to a close, and the UFC is finally in a position to give fans a few spectacular cards. Somehow injuries haven’t factored too heavily into the equation of UFC on FOX 5, and that’s something we should all be thankful for. T…
The year is coming to a close, and the UFC is finally in a position to give fans a few spectacular cards. Somehow injuries haven’t factored too heavily into the equation of UFC on FOX 5, and that’s something we should all be thankful for. The fact that this is a free event is just icing on the cake.
Tonight’s main card will feature four fights that should, by all accounts, prove to be highly stimulating. There is without a doubt, some major divisional relevancy affixed to a few of these showdowns, and tonight could mark a turning point in the careers of men like Alexander Gustafsson, Rory MacDonald and Nate Diaz.
Will these youngsters be able to raise their stock with massive, defining performances? That, my friends, is the question of the day.
The cards are stacked against B.J. Penn tonight. Not only has the Hawaiian been on the shelf for over a year, he’s returning from a planned retirement. “The Prodigy” didn’t intend on competing professionally again following his …
The cards are stacked against B.J. Penn tonight. Not only has the Hawaiian been on the shelf for over a year, he’s returning from a planned retirement. “The Prodigy” didn’t intend on competing professionally again following his loss to Nick Diaz at UFC 137, and we have no idea what he’s spent the majority of his away time doing.
Rory MacDonald managed to lure B.J. out of the realm of inactivity with his mouth and premature claims of greatness. Penn’s decision to return to MMA indicates that he’s obviously been affected by the chatter. Tonight we’ll see just how far Rory MacDonald was able to burrow himself under Penn’s skin.
However, in addition to the time away from competition and the fielding of constant trash talk, Penn finds himself in quite a bind, for a number of different reasons. He’s smaller than “Ares,” doesn’t boast the wrestling pedigree possessed by the youngster and doesn’t typically do well with men aggressive enough to plant him on his back and hurl leather at his face.
MacDonald will indeed force this fight to the canvas at some point, and even B.J. Penn will have some issues dealing with the Canadian’s devastating ground-and-pound.
If the former two-division champ hopes to derail the surging train known as Rory MacDonald, he’s got to keep this fight upright as long as possible. Penn has one of the best chins in the business, and it’s very conceivable that he can absorb MacDonald’s punches all night long if this fight turns into a kickboxing match for three rounds. He also has enough power in his fists to put the youngster away. If Condit was able to rattle Rory’s brain with his fists, B.J. Penn can manage the same.
There’s always the chance of a wild scramble on the mat, which could enable B.J. to find himself affixed to the back of MacDonald, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Penn’s fists will probably be his greatest weapon.
In the end, it may not be the fistic fury of Penn or his ability to sink rear-naked chokes like childhood paper boats that matters most. Conditioning may be the most significant X-factor in this fight.
If Penn is in the shape in which he claims to be, he shouldn’t have issues going to war with Rory for three rounds. If he stuffs the takedown attempts of “Ares” early and often, he’ll throw Rory off of his game. And while MacDonald has a significant size advantage, he’s not quite as gritty as Penn, and that powerful jab the Hawaiian owns will become a constant threat.
Penn sets up one-hitter-quitters with that jab, and if Rory begins to doubt himself for a moment and fails to take this fight to the canvas, a B.J. Penn knockout is very plausible. You just don’t toss fists at a brick wall that hits back.
B.J. Penn has a solid chance of returning to the spotlight tonight. If he’s going to make that happen, however, he’d better prevent Rory MacDonald from securing the takedown and turning his face into raw hamburger. “The Prodigy” is going to need to follow the old Chuck Liddell game plan to upset the rising star: sprawl and brawl B.J., sprawl and brawl brah!
For Nate Diaz, overcoming the mobility and versatility of Benson Henderson will be a daunting task.The champion moves quite well, packs a wallop in his punch and has some of the best submission defense in the division. The guy is remarkably difficult t…
For Nate Diaz, overcoming the mobility and versatility of Benson Henderson will be a daunting task.
The champion moves quite well, packs a wallop in his punch and has some of the best submission defense in the division. The guy is remarkably difficult to finish.
Stopping Henderson’s takedowns is crucial if Diaz hopes to keep himself in this fight. Henderson will likely look to utilize a stick-and-move approach until he eats a shot that disrupts his comfort, at which point the wrestling will likely come into play.
Can the champion out-wrestle the challenger? You bet he can.
Does the champion really want to tangle with Diaz on the mat? I’m not wholly convinced that’s the case. I do however, feel Henderson will look to rack up big points early, and I suspect he’ll do so by shooting takedowns in the latter portions of each round after doing his best job of mimicking Pernell Whitaker’s fluid movement.
Stick-and-move for the bulk of each round, build a point advantage and seal the deal with a takedown to close each frame. That’s a solid plan of attack and “Bendo” is an intelligent fighter who will do what it takes to hold onto UFC brass.
But he’s got himself a problem, and that problem comes in the form of a man who was born to fight. Nate Diaz is a finisher and he’s really come into his own over the last few years.
In order for Nate Diaz to be the first Diaz brother to seize gold in the octagon, he’s going to have to keep his jab in Henderson’s face from the beginning of the bout to the bitter end—which he can do.
If Nate Diaz moves forward and remains wary of Henderson’s takedowns, he can capitalize on his six-inch reach advantage and abuse Henderson. It’s unlikely he’ll put the current champion away with strikes alone, however. Nate’s got to put a pugilistic beating on Ben, and he’s got to be constant in his offensive attack, never letting Henderson settle in and find his range. If he can do that he can create cracks in the psyche of the champion and force the mistakes he’ll need to leap on a late submission.
Nate Diazisn’t likely to win a unanimous decision over Benson Henderson. His best bet is to be aggressive from the outset, be wary of the takedowns and when a hole makes itself known, leap in and work for a submission finish.
Look for the triangle choke to be a threat Henderson has difficulty defending. Just don’t expect an early finish: he’s too resilient for that. Nate’s got to force Henderson to question himself. In those fleeting moments of doubt, windows will open and Nate Diaz is perfectly capable of snaking his way right through those confined spaces and putting an end to Henderson’s reign as champion.
The headliner of UFC on FOX 5, pitting champion Benson Henderson against the ever-improving Nate Diaz, should by all accounts be a thrilling affair. Both Henderson and Diaz have mastered their styles and both rely on high quantity output to guide them …
The headliner of UFC on FOX 5, pitting champion Benson Henderson against the ever-improving Nate Diaz, should by all accounts be a thrilling affair. Both Henderson and Diaz have mastered their styles and both rely on high quantity output to guide them to victory.
While these two have opposing attitudes, they share a few in-cage traits—the most significant being the refusal to relent. Both men will aim to win this fight, but they’ll likely use two completely different approaches. Whose plan of attack will emerge superior is a mystery at this point, but one thing seems certain: These two will put on one stimulating show.
Having thrown some general redundancy out there for you, I’m going to switch gears a bit. Here’s a handful of predictions that go against the anticipated grain of the fight.
Mike Swick will fight for the second time in roughly three months tomorrow when he collides with the aggressive Matt Brown on the main card of UFC on Fox 5. Swick spent about two and a half years away from the cage recovering from injuries before retur…
Mike Swick will fight for the second time in roughly three months tomorrow when he collides with the aggressive Matt Brown on the main card of UFC on Fox 5. Swick spent about two and a half years away from the cage recovering from injuries before returning to action in August, and the time away from action was clearly visible. While Swick emerged victorious from his bout with DeMarques Johnson at UFC on Fox 4, he took a beating in the opening frame of the fight.
Swick looked rusty, and if there’s even a hint of it left in the system of “Quick,” Matt “The Immortal” Brown will knock it right off.
Will the speed and fluency of a prime Swick re-emerge tomorrow night? Will his physical and mental fortitude be put on harsh trial once more? We simply don’t have answers yet. But we’ve got a few relevant questions.
Rory is already a damn big welterweight. It’s been admitted by the man himself that flirting with the 200 pound mark isn’t a complete absurdity, and his wing span is pretty impressive for a 23 year old man who probably hasn’t quite co…
Rory is already a damn big welterweight. It’s been admitted by the man himself that flirting with the 200 pound mark isn’t a complete absurdity, and his wing span is pretty impressive for a 23 year old man who probably hasn’t quite completely filled out his frame. He’s a big dude.
Should welterweight, for one reason or another, not pan out for Rory MacDonald, middleweight is a very viable option. The kid’s big enough to contend at 185 pounds, and he appears powerful and skilled enough to do so as well. Still a bit unproven at the elite level of competition, MacDonald has some work to do, but to predict a successful migration to middleweight in the future doesn’t seem the greatest stretch of the imagination.
Of course, should Rory make such a decision, and should he make it any time in the next few years, he’s got some heavy hitters to contend with inside the Octagon. Think for a moment about potential matches with the top five of the division.
Chris Weidman is a hell of a wrestler, and he’s not afraid to throw blows and go toe-to-toe with heavy hitters. Mark Munoz will attest to the man’s power. Can Rory outmuscle and outwrestle a man of Weidman’s caliber? For that matter, can his gas tank hold up to the typically impressive aggression of Weidman?
With every fight Weidman gains confidence, and he’s becoming far more willing to settle into the pocket with opponents. A man who can wrestle, submit and strike is a dangerous dude, and I’m not wholly convinced Rory is prepared for that level of intensity at this stage of the game.
Take a look at Michael Bisping and you’re eyeing another man who has a style that could cause major problems for MacDonald. Bisping is the most mobile man in the division behind Anderson Silva, and Dan Henderson’s right hand has leant to Bisping’s willingness to think more defensively when the situation calls for it.
Michael’s a smart fighter who’s still improving, and his takedown defense and solid footwork would present plenty of problems for the young prospect.
Vitor Belfort, after a title shot trip at 205, is back at 185 pounds and although the man is already 35 years old, he’s paced his fighting career brilliantly, amassing only 31 fights in 16 years. 31 fights may be a solid amount of experience, but think about it for a minute: the man’s fought an average of less than two fights a year.
Vitor’s still got some juice left in the tank, and his lightning fast hands are a constant threat. Belfort is one Brazilian who shows up to bash heads, and he was gifted with the physical tools to do so. Could Rory survive the early onslaughts of Belfort, or would his chin be touched and cracked like so many before? That is a really tough question.
Tim Boetsch is widely regarded as a top five middleweight in the 185 pound division, and while I think he may be a bit behind most of the others who inhabit the top 5, he’s still a freakishly strong bull of a man who never quits. I see Rory out-grinding a guy like Boetsch, but Boetsch’s heart is a special intangible, and there’s simply no guarantee Rory could match the physical intensity of “The Barbarian”.
Alan Belcher doesn’t feature within too many top 5 lists, but I personally feel there isn’t another solid five contender I’d pick to beat “The Talent”. This guy has come into his own in a major way. His only serious flaw as a fighter is his inclination to injury. If he could stay healthy, he’d likely be a far more feared man.
Look at the last three or four years of Belcher’s career. With the exception of a stunning upset loss to Jason Day in April of 2008, the man’s only dropped a single fight. According to the judges (even according to the 10 point must system, I scored the fight in Belcher’s favor and will maintain that stance) Yoshihiro Akiyama did enough to earn a split decision nod back at UFC 100, in July of ’09.
Since then he’s thrashed his opponents, and while not every man he’s beaten in said stretch is a current top 10 competitor, a handful were impressive. Throttling Rousimar Palhares isn’t an easy feat. Neither is bullying Patrick Cote en route to an almost WWE-esque finish. He picked Ed Herman apart in ’08, and put a definitive end to any and all hype behind Denis Kang in 2009.
Rory would no doubt have his hands full with the diverse striker and dangerous submission practitioner. Belcher has every quality needed to put a potential beating on Rory, but the outcome probably comes down to one thing: who chooses to be the aggressor.
The risk will create openings, but I don’t think either man will appreciate the assault of the other. And the man on the receiving end of the forward onslaught is likely the man to break.
For the record, I’d probably pick MacDonald to prevail over the majority of the division. I believe he’s a talented enough competitor to put away fading dogs like Rich Franklin, Wanderlei Silva and Cung Le. Their days are numbered, and their positions amongst the divisional best are virtually nonexistent.
The mid-tier run of the middleweight ladder won’t likely offer the Canadian much, either. I don’t see the Alessio Sakaras, Chris Leben or Mark Munoz’s of the division showing MacDonald much that he hasn’t already seen.
A move to middleweight could yield success for Rory, but it may ultimately leave him in a position further from the title shot he flirts with now at welterweight. I’d love to see “Ares” meet a few more rugged guys at 170 to prove his worth and expand his experience level. Fights with Johny Hendricks, Nick Diaz and Josh Koscheck all sound extremely interesting, in my opinion.